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Topic: Move 11 (Read 1592 times) |
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Simon
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Fritzlein has moved:
10s eb4e Mb3n Mb4n ec4w (camel flip)
In the last thread the suggested counter to this was:
11g Mb5e hb6s Mc5s hb5e (Camel to c4 dragging horse to c5)
Let's think about Fritzlein's counters, and any other alternative moves though. Evidently Fritzlein thinks he can get away with the flip.
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Simon
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Re: Move 11
« Reply #1 on: May 12th, 2009, 10:56pm » |
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I looked for replies to 11g Mb5e hb6s Mc5s hb5e (Camel to c4 dragging horse to c5) :
reply 1:
11s flip M back to b5
12g we can take h with M, M is vulnerable; but
12s if Fritzlein takes M, we can get the other horse; if we do it immediately he gets a horse hostage but if we fork it first we might be able to avoid the hostage or get compensation (e.g. dog)
12s if he doesn't take M, it looks like we're in even better shape
reply 2:
11s push M to c3, retreat d4 h to e5
12g Ha5s Mc3w he5s Ed5e seems to give us the advantage
any more replies? I can't find anything that doesn't let us get an advantage, so far as I can tell...
Nor could I find any other moves for 11g that looked better either. But the more people who look, the less likely we are to miss something.
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Simon
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Re: Move 11
« Reply #2 on: May 12th, 2009, 11:20pm » |
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reply 2:
11s push M to c3, retreat d4 h to e5
12g Ha5s Mc3w he5s Ed5e
12s hc5n ec4e he4ee <- no significant advantage for us, so cancel that 12g
12g push horse south twice?
12s Fritz drags M -> we can get the horse without losing anything I think
12s Fritz goes for horse -> gets hostage only (in exchange for full horse) or exchanges both horses for one
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jdb
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Re: Move 11
« Reply #3 on: May 13th, 2009, 2:07am » |
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on May 12th, 2009, 11:20pm, Simon wrote:reply 2:
11s push M to c3, retreat d4 h to e5
12g Ha5s Mc3w he5s Ed5e
12s hc5n ec4e he4ee <- no significant advantage for us, so cancel that 12g
12g push horse south twice?
12s Fritz drags M -> we can get the horse without losing anything I think
12s Fritz goes for horse -> gets hostage only (in exchange for full horse) or exchanges both horses for one |
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11s push M to c3, retreat d4 h to e5
12g push horse south twice
This 12g gives a crushing advantage for gold.
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Simon
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Re: Move 11
« Reply #4 on: May 13th, 2009, 8:42am » |
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Quote:| This 12g gives a crushing advantage for gold. |
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If so, we don't have to worry about reply 2. What about reply 1 or other potential replies?
I looked again at the line with the fork. If Fritzlein pushes through the trap with the elephant on 13s, it looks like we lose a cat if we capture the forked horse immediately (and then get our horse hostaged anyway), and if we don't, Fritzlein can probably save it.
So that means, for my 12g in response to "reply 1", we probably have to let our horse get hostaged (in addition to our taking both of Fritzlein's horses and him taking our camel). This leaves him with the strongest free piece.
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jdb
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Re: Move 11
« Reply #5 on: May 13th, 2009, 11:38pm » |
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11g Mb5e hb6s Mc5s hb5e
12s mg6s mg5s Hg3w mg4s
It looks like there should be a good move for gold, but what is it?
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Simon
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Re: Move 11
« Reply #6 on: May 14th, 2009, 2:15pm » |
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Quote:11g Mb5e hb6s Mc5s hb5e
12s mg6s mg5s Hg3w mg4s
It looks like there should be a good move for gold, but what is it? |
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12g Ha5e Hf3w x x ? (x x = Dh4s rh5s ?)
I think "reply 1" (11s eb4s Mc4w Mb4n eb3n) is a better response by Fritzlein, though I may have missed either good follow up moves by Fritzlein to your 11s or good responses by us to reply 1.
For the "reply 1" I am not sure who the trade of horse + horse for camel + horse hostage favours; although Fritzlein can't transfer the hostage to the camel, the camel is well situated to assault the opposite side of the board, going for taking something else hostage or a goal threat (although it must be careful not to allow a trade - perhaps it can use the rabbit as a shield). Meanwhile in the west we might try to swarm, or try to dislodge a dog. But I think that Fritzlein would likely be able to put on enough pressure to force us to spend our steps in the east, where Fritzlein would be able to make progress and we would only be able to slow him down. So I am concerned that we may actually be at a disadvantage there, and we may be better off with a more conservative 11g like maybe Mb5e Mc5s Ha5e Ed5w that at least appears not to put us at a disadvantage.
Also, where is everybody? No one else have anything to say?
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arimaa_master
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Re: Move 11
« Reply #7 on: May 15th, 2009, 3:27am » |
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Is there something better than
11g Mb5e hb6s Mc5s hb5e ?
It depends:
If we are ok with camel flip back to b5 and trading our camel for two horses - it is ok.
If we are inconvenient with this trade - we should try something to prevent that flip:
My favourite is:
11g Mb5e hb6s Mc5s Ed5w
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| « Last Edit: May 15th, 2009, 3:29am by arimaa_master » |
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Adanac
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Re: Move 11
« Reply #8 on: May 15th, 2009, 4:50am » |
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on May 14th, 2009, 2:15pm, Simon wrote:I think "reply 1" (11s eb4s Mc4w Mb4n eb3n) is a better response by Fritzlein, though I may have missed either good follow up moves by Fritzlein to your 11s or good responses by us to reply 1.
For the "reply 1" I am not sure who the trade of horse + horse for camel + horse hostage favours; although Fritzlein can't transfer the hostage to the camel, the camel is well situated to assault the opposite side of the board, going for taking something else hostage or a goal threat (although it must be careful not to allow a trade - perhaps it can use the rabbit as a shield). Meanwhile in the west we might try to swarm, or try to dislodge a dog. But I think that Fritzlein would likely be able to put on enough pressure to force us to spend our steps in the east, where Fritzlein would be able to make progress and we would only be able to slow him down. So I am concerned that we may actually be at a disadvantage there, and we may be better off with a more conservative 11g like maybe Mb5e Mc5s Ha5e Ed5w that at least appears not to put us at a disadvantage.
Also, where is everybody? No one else have anything to say? |
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If re-flipping the camel to b5 is Fritzlein's best 11s move, then we're going to have to analyze far, far into the future to see if our 2 Horses for Camel exchange really works. Intuitively, we should be winning but our Achilles heel may be those awkwardly placed pieces in the east.
11g Mb5e hb6s Mc5s hb5e (drag horse to c5)
11s eb4s Mc4w Mb4n eb3n (flip camel back to b5)
12g hc5s Mb5e hc4s hc3x Mc5s (capture horse)
12s Mc4n eb4e Mc5n Mc6x ec4n (capture camel)
Using 2 steps to push the horse to d3 doesn’t seem to work quite so well on 13g, unfortunately. I think we have to take the horse and then dig in for the horse hostage.
13g hd4w Ed5s hc4s hc3x Ed4w (capture horse)
13s ec5w Ha5n eb5w dd6n (take horse hostage & evade dog pull to d5)
14g Ec4n Ec5e Ed5n Dd1n (threaten H for D exchange)
14s dd7e de6e ea5e eb5n
I think we’re winning at this point, but a lot more analysis may be needed. Can we swarm the northwest trap before the camel can damage our east side? Should we try to capture that h5 rabbit?
I like the proposed 11g but it would be nice if we could have a few people try playing this out to move 20 or beyond.
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RonWeasley
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Re: Move 11
« Reply #9 on: May 18th, 2009, 9:15am » |
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My copying facility is impaired so I can't show the lines, but I tried a continuation where silver attacks with md in the east after the M for hh trade. I use the E to hostage the attacking m. Silver takes the western H and sacrifices d to save the m. So we have hhd and a hostage m for MH.
Other variations leave gold ahead by at least a cat.
So I can endorse 11g Mb5e hb6s Mc5s hb5e.
When I try 11g Mb5e hb6s Mc5s Ed5w I find silver can flip the M to a4 or move h->b6 and push M->c3 and keep the e near the gold M. I have trouble generating any good threats for gold.
Vote Tuesday?
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Adanac
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Re: Move 11
« Reply #10 on: May 18th, 2009, 11:10am » |
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on May 18th, 2009, 9:15am, RonWeasley wrote:My copying facility is impaired so I can't show the lines, but I tried a continuation where silver attacks with md in the east after the M for hh trade. I use the E to hostage the attacking m. Silver takes the western H and sacrifices d to save the m. So we have hhd and a hostage m for MH.
Other variations leave gold ahead by at least a cat.
So I can endorse 11g Mb5e hb6s Mc5s hb5e.
When I try 11g Mb5e hb6s Mc5s Ed5w I find silver can flip the M to a4 or move h->b6 and push M->c3 and keep the e near the gold M. I have trouble generating any good threats for gold.
Vote Tuesday?
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A Tuesday vote is fine with me and I also support 11g Mb5e hb6s Mc5s hb5e. I didn't try and m+d attacks but I looked at scenarios where we lose H+D for M (leaving us ahead H for D) and swarms against c6 if Fritzlein plays less aggressively. I think we're comfortably ahead at this point in the game.
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jdb
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Re: Move 11
« Reply #11 on: May 19th, 2009, 4:45am » |
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I vote for 11g Mb5e hb6s Mc5s hb5e
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RonWeasley
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Re: Move 11
« Reply #12 on: May 20th, 2009, 12:48pm » |
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on May 19th, 2009, 4:45am, jdb wrote:| I vote for 11g Mb5e hb6s Mc5s hb5e |
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And that's what TheMob voted for by a 5-1 margin. Only 6 votes. I think that's an apathy record. Is six enough to call ourselves a mob? Maybe we must rename this contest: One vs TheIrritatingFew.
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aaaa
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Re: Move 11
« Reply #13 on: May 20th, 2009, 2:28pm » |
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If it's any consolation, I might be able to supply possibly reasonably useful bot analysis in the not-so-distant future.
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jdb
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Re: Move 11
« Reply #14 on: May 20th, 2009, 5:31pm » |
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I predict Fritz will play
11b mg6s mg5s Hg3w mg4s
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