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Topic: Potential Issue (Read 5606 times) |
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Fritzlein
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Potential Issue
« on: Nov 15th, 2011, 12:42pm » |
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I might be misreading the budget calculation, but it seems that we under-charged for at least Nombril (2200 instead of 2340) and civic (1500 instead of 1630).
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| « Last Edit: Nov 15th, 2011, 12:43pm by Fritzlein » |
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Adanac
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Re: Potential Issue
« Reply #1 on: Nov 15th, 2011, 12:48pm » |
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on Nov 15th, 2011, 12:42pm, Fritzlein wrote:| I might be misreading the budget calculation, but it seems that we under-charged for at least Nombril (2200 instead of 2340) and civic (1500 instead of 1630). |
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Wow, it looks like the whole Ring of Fire was off in Round 1. It should have been:
Nombril 2380
Simon 1930
Eggman 1330
Total = 5640
Actually, I'm using today's ratings so Nombril may have been lower and Eggman higher.
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megajester
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Re: Potential Issue
« Reply #2 on: Nov 15th, 2011, 12:52pm » |
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Yes, you're right. Apologies everybody. I'll sort it out tomorrow. All official ratings for each round will remain as they are stated in the wiki.
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Fritzlein
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Potential Issue
« Reply #3 on: Nov 15th, 2011, 1:00pm » |
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on Nov 15th, 2011, 12:52pm, megajester wrote:| Yes, you're right. Apologies everybody. I'll sort it out tomorrow. All official ratings for each round will remain as they are stated in the wiki. |
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Oh, nice that you take that ratings snapshot and leave it as a wiki page. That makes it easy to correct things like this after the fact. Unfortunately new players Eggman and Dolus are missing. Eggman was 0-1 prior to playing; he would have been higher than the present 1330, around 1360 as I understand WHR. Dolus was also 0-1, but would have been higher-rated than Eggman due to losing to a higher-rated opponent, somewhere around 1450.
This round we're going to have to pay more for Dolus, and more every round after that as long as he keeps notching the wins!
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| « Last Edit: Nov 15th, 2011, 1:17pm by Fritzlein » |
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Dolus
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Re: Potential Issue
« Reply #4 on: Nov 15th, 2011, 3:25pm » |
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on Nov 15th, 2011, 1:00pm, Fritzlein wrote:This round we're going to have to pay more for Dolus, and more every round after that as long as he keeps notching the wins!
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I'm sorry. I don't mean to be expensive. I'll lose more postals! ;P
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Fritzlein
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Re: Potential Issue
« Reply #5 on: Nov 15th, 2011, 4:52pm » |
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on Nov 15th, 2011, 3:25pm, Dolus wrote:| I'm sorry. I don't mean to be expensive. I'll lose more postals! ;P |
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Hehe, that would help some, but your cost is your peak rating, so you can't totally sandbag. 
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Dolus
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Re: Potential Issue
« Reply #6 on: Nov 15th, 2011, 5:20pm » |
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on Nov 15th, 2011, 4:52pm, Fritzlein wrote:
Hehe, that would help some, but your cost is your peak rating, so you can't totally sandbag. |
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Ah, got it. So just before I win another AWL game, I need to start a lightning game against another human opponent and sacrifice all of my rabbits.
Easy as Pi.
So it won't be suspicious if I'm using up all of my reserve time on a goal in one, right?
Also, I think my first loss was last week on Tuesday, so depending on when exactly ratings where chosen, it may have remained 1500. I think they're taken Monday? I need to reread the rules, as apparently more changed than I realized. But I'll leave it to MegaJester to say what I'm worth. 
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| « Last Edit: Nov 15th, 2011, 5:20pm by Dolus » |
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Fritzlein
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Re: Potential Issue
« Reply #7 on: Nov 15th, 2011, 6:00pm » |
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on Nov 15th, 2011, 5:20pm, Dolus wrote:| Also, I think my first loss was last week on Tuesday, so depending on when exactly ratings where chosen, it may have remained 1500. I think they're taken Monday? I need to reread the rules, as apparently more changed than I realized. But I'll leave it to MegaJester to say what I'm worth. |
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Good point; you would have still been 1500 at the time the ratings were set.
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novacat
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Re: Potential Issue
« Reply #8 on: Nov 15th, 2011, 11:07pm » |
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Looking at the round 1 official ratings and the round 1 results, it appears all players are off except chessandgo (and possibly Dolus and Eggman who are not on the list).
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megajester
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Re: Potential Issue
« Reply #9 on: Nov 16th, 2011, 12:35am » |
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Corrected.
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Fritzlein
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Re: Potential Issue
« Reply #10 on: Nov 16th, 2011, 7:15am » |
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on Nov 16th, 2011, 12:35am, megajester wrote:
Thank you!
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Adanac
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Re: Potential Issue
« Reply #11 on: Nov 16th, 2011, 9:21am » |
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Thanks for updating round 1 & 2 roster and ratings.
One last question/comment regarding the Round 1 Ratings. I believe Eggman should have been rated 1360 in the first round because his rating was based upon a human game versus NJames on October 8th. So he's in a different situation than Dolus who played his first hvh game on the Tuesday after the ratings would have been posted. Would that be a correct interpretation?
EDIT: OK, Second question: did Boo's & Simon's ratings get inverted somehow?
In round 1 the Wiki shows
Boo 1950
Simon 1990
In round 2
Boo 1990
Simon 1930
EDIT #2: On further reflection this might be explained: Simon had a long absence from Arimaa and maybe recent losses have strongly affected his peak rating somehow (counter-intuitive but that does seem to happen)? Boo's rise is easier to explain as he's clearly been building up his rating for months now.
And, yes, this is why I incorrectly submitted the roster as Nombril-Simon-Boo rather than Nombril-Boo-Simon. I got so accustomed to the first that I had failed to noticed that Boo had passed Simon on the list.
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| « Last Edit: Nov 16th, 2011, 9:37am by Adanac » |
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Fritzlein
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Re: Potential Issue
« Reply #12 on: Nov 16th, 2011, 1:34pm » |
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on Nov 16th, 2011, 9:21am, Adanac wrote:| On further reflection this might be explained: Simon had a long absence from Arimaa and maybe recent losses have strongly affected his peak rating somehow (counter-intuitive but that does seem to happen)? |
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Yes, it is definitely possible to lower your peak rating with future losses. The algorithm concludes not only that you have gotten worse, but also that you never were as good as it once thought. However, the effect seems only to be large if you have recently achieved your peak. If you are currently at your highest-ever rating, it is easy to convince the algorithm that you don't deserve it and never did. But if you have already come down some distance from your peak, the algorithm is less easily persuaded that you didn't deserve the past peak it has calculated for you.
Fortunately, there have been no signs of WHR rating manipulation so far. I hope the AWL never becomes so competitive that people try to sandbag.
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ginrunner
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Re: Potential Issue
« Reply #13 on: Nov 23rd, 2011, 11:32am » |
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I'm sandbagging! every loss I have ever had I meant to lose 
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Dolus
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Re: Potential Issue
« Reply #14 on: Nov 23rd, 2011, 11:44am » |
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on Nov 23rd, 2011, 11:32am, ginrunner wrote:| I'm sandbagging! every loss I have ever had I meant to lose |
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Great! We'll let you play against chessandgo in the AWL.
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