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Topic: Server activity over time (Read 4439 times) |
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Fritzlein
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Server activity over time
« on: Dec 1st, 2004, 7:40pm » |
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I have created a graph of how much folks are playing Arimaa on the server over time. I counted the number of games per four-week period, as well as the number of distinct players who played at least one game in the four-week period. Unfortunately, my database is out of date, so the last four-week period is from October 7 to November 3. All the great activity in the last month is not included.
The good news is that already in October we were at an all-time high in the number of humans playing actively, the number of bots playing actively, and the number of games being played.
The bad news is that the number of human vs. human games has not increased significantly over time. In fact, the average number of games an active human plays per month against another human is less than one. (I plead guilty on this score.) It's still very much a man vs. machine and machine vs. machine game. (The majority of games are human vs. bot).
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| « Last Edit: Dec 1st, 2004, 7:52pm by Fritzlein » |
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omar
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Re: Server activity over time
« Reply #1 on: Dec 5th, 2004, 6:24pm » |
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Interesting graph. Now if the stock market could recover like that 
Naveed recently also mentioned to me that there are not enough human vs human games. We bounced some ideas around and thought that it might help to increase this if there was a ladder system and people could challenge each other to move up the ladder. Im considering this, but still need to think through the details of the policies for challenging and accepting or denying the challenge.
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Fritzlein
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Re: Server activity over time
« Reply #2 on: Dec 26th, 2004, 3:14pm » |
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I reformatted and updated the graph to include an additional 4-week period. We shot up to an all-time high in bot vs. bot activity, maintained the high number of active humans (70 different humans played at least one game during the four weeks) and even saw an uptick in the number of human vs. human games.
Server activity hit an all-time low sometime around last June. I sure hope we're not in for a similar falling off this year.
[Edit] Updated through late December. There was a small dip in activity, hopefully not leading into a spring decline.
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| « Last Edit: Jan 5th, 2005, 12:33am by Fritzlein » |
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Fritzlein
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Re: Server activity over time
« Reply #3 on: Jan 31st, 2005, 7:47pm » |
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Updated through the four-week period ending January 26. We set a record for most humans playing at least one game, most human vs bot games, and almost set a record for most human vs human games. And that's only finished games, so it doesn't count the 80 postal games.
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Fritzlein
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Re: Server activity over time
« Reply #4 on: Mar 23rd, 2005, 4:35pm » |
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When you smooth out the number of games per week into a nine-week moving average, it is clear that we are [EDIT: were] at an all-time high in human vs human activity, by a wide margin.
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| « Last Edit: Jan 27th, 2006, 8:23pm by Fritzlein » |
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Fritzlein
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Re: Server activity over time
« Reply #5 on: May 30th, 2005, 6:12pm » |
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I updated the graph with another 10 weeks. It's clear from even one month that the new Player of the Month contest rules are having an effect, as the number of human vs human games has soared even further, up to about 25 per week. Let's hope the trend keeps up!
[edit] I updated another 3 months or so. We hit a bit of a summer slump in June, but the Metafilter mention gave us a bounce, and I expect there will be a significant buildup in games of all types as we enter the winter tournament season.
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| « Last Edit: Sep 11th, 2005, 7:41am by Fritzlein » |
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Fritzlein
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Re: Server activity over time
« Reply #6 on: Jan 27th, 2006, 8:21pm » |
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I've updated the graph above (and on the Wiki) through the last 9-week average I can calculate, i.e. December 22. The bot vs. bot activity hit an all time high, thanks in large part to all of Gnobot's practice games. Human vs. human games have dipped slightly since a peak right before the WC.
The most visible trend is that human vs. bot games are in freefall. That type of game mostly comes from either bot-bashing record attempts, or from new players joining and working up the ladder. Most folks rated over 2000 aren't contributing much to that stat at the moment. Maybe that will spike a little if there is interest in playing the 2006 bots, or if we get some favorable press somewhere.
I think we've got a great little community as is, but I am nevertheless eager for more people to discover the joy of Arimaa. More people means more fresh ideas and more fun for everyone as we figure out this crazy game.
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Fritzlein
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Re: Server activity over time
« Reply #7 on: Mar 12th, 2006, 12:29pm » |
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I've updated the graph again. It looks like the bot ladder is doing wonders to increase HvB activity. Indeed, since it is a 9-week average, there hasn't been time yet to show the full effect. If we keep at our current rate, we will hit a new high of 350 or so HvB games per week. Of course, that is contingent on new players continuing to join and stay around as the old players get bored with all the bots. I'm thrilled how many fresh faces there are these days, and how many of them are actually sticking around for a while to progress through the ladder.
In other good news, all the automatic BvB games are not dominating the HvB games by any means. At the current rate the average will rise to 100 or 150 games per week, and maybe less. If the server load stays high due to lots of HvB games, perhaps fewer BvB games will even start.
The HvH games have ticked up slightly in spite of (or perhaps because of?) all the time folks are spending on postal games.
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omar
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Re: Server activity over time
« Reply #8 on: Mar 15th, 2006, 6:05pm » |
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It seems like there is always one or two live games going on just about every time I check. Also the number of people I see in the gameroom has definitely picked up.
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Fritzlein
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Re: Server activity over time
« Reply #9 on: Apr 1st, 2006, 7:34pm » |
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After pestering Janzert to use a log scale on his branching factor graphs, I realized that the server activity graph also should have a log scale.
The substantial ups and downs of the HvH games were being drowned out on the linear scale. Also the linear scale exaggerated the amount of dropoff in HvB activity in late 2005. While it was a significant dip, it wasn't nearly as significant as the lull in mid 2004.
On a log scale, a straight line represents exponential growth. It's pretty easy to lay a straight line along the top of the HvB activity, and predict when we will be up to 1000 games per week, i.e. mid to late 2007. Won't that be fun!
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| « Last Edit: Apr 1st, 2006, 7:38pm by Fritzlein » |
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Fritzlein
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Re: Server activity over time
« Reply #10 on: Apr 16th, 2006, 12:44pm » |
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I updated the graph through April 15. The HvB games are at an all-time high by a wide marign, and the HvH games are approaching their previous high. The exponential growth continues!
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IdahoEv
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Re: Server activity over time
« Reply #11 on: Apr 16th, 2006, 7:53pm » |
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on Apr 1st, 2006, 7:34pm, Fritzlein wrote:| we will be up to 1000 games per week, i.e. mid to late 2007. Won't that be fun! |
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Not for the people who have to maintain the site, no. 
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frostlad
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Re: Server activity over time
« Reply #12 on: Apr 17th, 2006, 2:10pm » |
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Is there a way to look at the number of players that join over a period of time? It seems like there has been a large influx as of late.
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Fritzlein
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Re: Server activity over time
« Reply #13 on: Apr 17th, 2006, 8:07pm » |
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on Apr 17th, 2006, 2:10pm, frostlad wrote:| Is there a way to look at the number of players that join over a period of time? It seems like there has been a large influx as of late. |
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I queried the games database for the earliest game time for each player, then grouped by month. Here are the results through March 2006, since April is not yet complete:
[EDIT: image updated and moved down twelve posts]
The huge spike of newcomers in August 2005 was entirely a result of being mentioned on MetaFilter, but the corresponding spike in games played lasted only one week, not like the steady boom we have now. Apparently, although the number of newcomers has been high recently, the present surge in HvB games is largely attributable to the bot ladder, rather than to better publicity. The vast majority of the MetaFilter people played one or two games and left. Nowdays newcomers seem to stick around for many more games. The bot ladder is a challenge ("you can't do this") and an invitation ("you can do this") at the same time, a path laid out for all to follow.
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| « Last Edit: Dec 31st, 2006, 9:49pm by Fritzlein » |
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99of9
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Re: Server activity over time
« Reply #14 on: Apr 17th, 2006, 11:20pm » |
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It looks like something fundamental changed around Nov04-Feb05.
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