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Topic: Move 35 (Read 12347 times) |
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warren
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Re: Move 35
« Reply #60 on: Jun 24th, 2008, 12:39pm » |
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on Jun 24th, 2008, 9:56am, Soter wrote:
Now a different kettle of fish: assuming that the mob chooses 35b ed3e ee3s Hf2s ee2e, is something like 36w Da3n Da4n Da5n Da6e even remotely playable for chessandgo? Yes, I know this one looks rather wacky, but don't forget about Jean's penchant for surprises... |
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I think we take his cat and say thank you. Bomb says:
35b ed3e ee3s Hf2s ee2e
36w Da3n Da4n Da5n Da6e
36b Cg3w Cf3x dg2n dc4n rd5e
37w Eb3e hb2n Ec3n hb3e hc3x
37b ef2n Hf1n ef3n Hf2n Hf3x
38w Ec4s dc5s Ec3e dc4s dc3x
The final position is dccr vs DD. I don't think we have to worry about this 36w.
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mistre
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Re: Move 35
« Reply #61 on: Jun 24th, 2008, 12:45pm » |
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on Jun 24th, 2008, 11:37am, Soter wrote:
Warren, what about your 35b dc4s dc3n Rc2n xxxx? |
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This move was refuted already by Fritzlein:
"I'm not sure the move 35b dc4s dc3n Rc2n xxxx guarantees us any compensation for our dog. Can't he just take our dog, and then if we flip his rabbit, move Da3->b6?"
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| « Last Edit: Jun 24th, 2008, 12:46pm by mistre » |
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warren
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Re: Move 35
« Reply #62 on: Jun 24th, 2008, 12:51pm » |
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on Jun 24th, 2008, 11:37am, Soter wrote:
Warren, what about your 35b dc4s dc3n Rc2n xxxx? |
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Resulting lines seem to generally result in us threatening to trap a rabbit or dog at c6, loss of our dog, freedom of our horse and less-sharp positions, with material unclear at HDDC vs. hdccr (dog for cat and rabbit). I don't have time right now to post a representative line.
Update: looking briefly at it again, I no longer believe that we necessarily free our horse.
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| « Last Edit: Jun 24th, 2008, 11:19pm by warren » |
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RonWeasley
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Re: Move 35
« Reply #63 on: Jun 25th, 2008, 5:41am » |
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on Jun 24th, 2008, 10:12am, mistre wrote:
What we should be asking is if there is a better 35b than ed3e ee3s Hf2s ee2e?, and at this point no one is providing alternatives.
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Just to be different, I'm looking at Soter's original suggestion. I didn't see the refutation. (?)
35b ed3e ee3s dc4n rd5e
and continuing:
36w Rg1w Dd4w De4s Da3n
36b Hf2n ee2w Cg3w dg2n
and silver tries for domination around f3 including goal threats while gold takes the h. This looks risky but worth considering.
or
36w Rg1w Re2n Re3w xxxx
36b ee2s Hf2e He2e ee1n
and silver has an easier time dominating f3 and getting a goal threat. Less risky but risky still.
or
36w dg2s Hf2w xxxx xxxx
and the double threat is temporarily a single threat and silver can try to cover the threats while swarming on both sides. Risky again, maybe the most risky of the three since it's harder to threaten the H around f3 here. Still, at this point, I'm not sure trading h for C is unthinkable.
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mistre
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Re: Move 35
« Reply #64 on: Jun 25th, 2008, 9:07am » |
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Thanks at looking at an alternative. On your 36b examples, I think you got the east and west directions backwards - I couldn't get them to work the way you described until I switched east with west and vice versa.
Also, your third 36w is not physically possible. Did you mean 36w Rg1w dg2e Hf2e xxxx?
Just based on your initial analysis, this move looks a bit weaker than taking the E to f2.
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| « Last Edit: Jun 25th, 2008, 9:14am by mistre » |
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warren
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Re: Move 35
« Reply #65 on: Jun 25th, 2008, 12:14pm » |
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on Jun 25th, 2008, 5:41am, RonWeasley wrote:
Just to be different, I'm looking at Soter's original suggestion. I didn't see the refutation. (?)
35b ed3e ee3s dc4n rd5e
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Looking at that 35b, I don't see how white can force a material win if silver keeps swarming. If in fact he can't, this 35b is probably better than 99's. What am I missing? Can someone post a plausible line where silver has no choice but to give up material?
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Fritzlein
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Re: Move 35
« Reply #66 on: Jun 25th, 2008, 1:38pm » |
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on Jun 25th, 2008, 12:14pm, warren wrote:
Looking at that 35b, I don't see how white can force a material win if silver keeps swarming. If in fact he can't, this 35b is probably better than 99's. What am I missing? Can someone post a plausible line where silver has no choice but to give up material? |
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It seems to me that after 35b dc4n rd5e ed3e ee3s chessandgo can force a material gain with 36w Rd2n Rd3e Dd4e Rg1w. Since we can't defend c3 without our elephant, one way to avoid immediate material loss is 36b ee2w Hf2w ed2n dg2x, but that just delays the inevitable a couple of moves while Gold's position improves. Ron's idea of flipping the horse with 36b ee2s Hf2w He2w ee1n loses a horse for a cat and his elephant centralizes in time to defend after
37w Eb3e hb2n Ec3e hb3e hc3x
37b ee2e Re3s Cg3w Cf3x dg2n
38w De4e Ed3e Ee3e Da3e
Now one can argue that we are happy to have CCR for H in this position, but nevertheless we lose material from our current situation of CR for nothing. Maybe there is a better attacking move on 36b than flipping the horse, but in a similar position it seemed that pushing the horse into f3 made for a pretty slow attack, and material loss as well.
I don't think we have a move that doesn't lose material, and the question is just how good an attack we can get for it.
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Fritzlein
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Re: Move 35
« Reply #67 on: Jun 25th, 2008, 3:03pm » |
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on Jun 24th, 2008, 9:32am, RonWeasley wrote:
Gold must put the D on g4. This frees the r on d4 to cover c3 if gold pulls up the h. Otherwise, our e can stick to the D and silver can swarm rabbits on the east side. Probably trade h for D, but that give silver a clean east side to make threats on. |
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I looked a bit at this position to see whether we would necessarily lose further material, because if superficially it looks like we might be able to hold onto a CC for D material advantage. Our horse can just run away unless he re-hostages it, and if he re-hostages we get more time for our goal attack. For example:
35b ed3e ee3s Hf2s ee2e
36w Eb3e Ec3w dc4s dc3x Hf1w
36b rb5e rc5s Cg3w Cf3x dg2n
37w rc4s rc3x Dd4w Eb3e hb2n
37b dg3s Rg1w dg2s rd5s
38w rd4n Dc4e Dd4e De4e
38b rd5s rd4s rh7s rh6s
39w hb3s Ec3w Df4e Dg4e
39b rg6s rg5s rg8s rg7s
40w Eb3e Ec3w rd3w rc3x Rd2e
40b rg6s rg4s rg5s rg3s
and we win
or
39w hb3s Ec3w Df4e Da3n
39b rh5s rg6e rh6s rh4s
40w Eb3e Ec3w rd3w rc3x Dg4e
40b ef2e eg2n rh3s rh2w
and we win
Tracing back up the tree, I think chessandgo can't play a greedy 39w, which means we stay ahead by CC for D, which means we are winning in this line, which means that we are winning after 99of9's move against all suggested replies for chessandgo. (38w in this line was forced, and 37w was the move we were afraid of but don't need to be any more.)
Or have I missed some analysis? What do we think is chessandgo's best reply to 99of9's move? How much are we ahead then?
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99of9
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Re: Move 35
« Reply #68 on: Jun 25th, 2008, 3:24pm » |
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on Jun 25th, 2008, 3:03pm, Fritzlein wrote:Tracing back up the tree, I think chessandgo can't play a greedy 39w, which means we stay ahead by CC for D, which means we are winning in this line, which means that we are winning after 99of9's move against all suggested replies for chessandgo. (38w in this line was forced, and 37w was the move we were afraid of but don't need to be any more.)
Or have I missed some analysis? What do we think is chessandgo's best reply to 99of9's move? How much are we ahead then?
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I agree that is the current state, so I am happy to vote for this now. But I understand if anyone wants a delay, because it does seem like a crucial move. We are offering free material, and currently believe we can forcibly win a strong attack or some material in return.
I think we were right to analyze a sacrifice move more deeply than normal, even though we didn't have any particular alternatives. The key was to correctly value this move, because it oscillated between very positive and very negative. If it had turned out to be losing, then (in the absence of alternative possible positive moves) we could then turn to finding another move that lost us only a bit of ground.
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RonWeasley
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Re: Move 35
« Reply #69 on: Jun 25th, 2008, 4:35pm » |
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This looks like a vote for our horse push move by 99 and Fritz. Add my vote. If we get 5 more, I will make the move.
Notice I'm changing the majority to 8 since warren is new and has been very active.
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mistre
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Re: Move 35
« Reply #70 on: Jun 25th, 2008, 4:36pm » |
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on Jun 25th, 2008, 3:24pm, 99of9 wrote:
I think we were right to analyze a sacrifice move more deeply than normal, even though we didn't have any particular alternatives. The key was to correctly value this move, because it oscillated between very positive and very negative. If it had turned out to be losing, then (in the absence of alternative possible positive moves) we could then turn to finding another move that lost us only a bit of ground. |
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Thanks for clarifying why we analyzed this move so far into the future. It makes more sense to me now.
I'll vote for horse push as well.
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| « Last Edit: Jun 25th, 2008, 4:37pm by mistre » |
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jdb
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Re: Move 35
« Reply #71 on: Jun 25th, 2008, 6:09pm » |
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I would like to use some more time before voting. We have 16 days in the reserve, and if we are right about this move we will not need the time anyway.
I am comfortable enough that if gold plays the following 36w, silver will have a very good position.
35b ed3e ee3s Hf2s ee2e
36w Eb3e Ec3w dc4s dc3x Hf1w
However, this 36w is not forced. Maybe gold could even try,
36w H->e3 xxxx (maybe Dd4e)
It is very likely chessandgo will see the danger in capturing the dog on 36w and take enough time to come up with an alternative move. I think it would be wise to spend a few days looking at some of his alternatives on 36w.
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| « Last Edit: Jun 25th, 2008, 6:12pm by jdb » |
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warren
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Re: Move 35
« Reply #72 on: Jun 25th, 2008, 11:34pm » |
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on Jun 25th, 2008, 6:09pm, jdb wrote:I would like to use some more time before voting. We have 16 days in the reserve, and if we are right about this move we will not need the time anyway.
I am comfortable enough that if gold plays the following 36w, silver will have a very good position.
35b ed3e ee3s Hf2s ee2e
36w Eb3e Ec3w dc4s dc3x Hf1w
However, this 36w is not forced. Maybe gold could even try,
36w H->e3 xxxx (maybe Dd4e)
It is very likely chessandgo will see the danger in capturing the dog on 36w and take enough time to come up with an alternative move. I think it would be wise to spend a few days looking at some of his alternatives on 36w.
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Without the threat against our eastern dog his position seems to fall apart. Here's one line:
35b ed3e ee3s Hf2s ee2e
36w Hf1w He1n He2n Dd4e
36b rd5s rd4s Cg3n dg2n
37w Da3n rd3w He3w De4w
37b Cg4w dg3n Cf4s Cf3x dg4w
38w Eb3n Eb4s dc4w rc3x Dd4w
38b rg6s rg5s rg4s ef2w
The above 38w is obviously not his best one, as it loses the game, but I don't see any obvious way for him to gain material.
I haven't looked at this very hard at all, but it doesn't look like a good 36w at first glance. I do like the idea of finding better 36w though.
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| « Last Edit: Jun 25th, 2008, 11:38pm by warren » |
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Soter
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Re: Move 35
« Reply #73 on: Jun 26th, 2008, 12:52am » |
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I like 99's proposal ( horse push -> f1 ) but I also agree with JDB on considering other 36w possibilities and delaying our vote - just a bit. IMHO two days will suffice.
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| « Last Edit: Jun 26th, 2008, 12:52am by Soter » |
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99of9
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Re: Move 35
« Reply #74 on: Jun 26th, 2008, 2:04am » |
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on Jun 25th, 2008, 6:09pm, jdb wrote:
However, this 36w is not forced. Maybe gold could even try,
36w H->e3 xxxx (maybe Dd4e)
I think it would be wise to spend a few days looking at some of his alternatives on 36w. |
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I agree, I'm happy for people to keep working on this, there are plenty of branches to analyse.
Warren's reply to your example looks quite good. A different 4th step we should consider is:
36w H->e3 Rd2n
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