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froody
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random froody thoughts
« on: Dec 16th, 2011, 1:17am » |
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2011-12-15 22:48:15 Fritzlein I'm willing to take froody's 100 to 1 bet
2011-12-15 22:48:25 ingwa The highest I ever played in was the Swedish go championship
2011-12-15 22:49:11 Fritzlein If he doesn't win the World Championship, he owes me 100 Arimaa Points. If he does win the World Championship, I owe him 10000 Arimaa Points.
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Done. *Shake*
Fritzlein: I offer you another gamble: 12 to 1 odds that I will beat you before the 2012 WC has finished. Providing you have played me in at least 8 challenge games. WC time controls. challenge games will be announced in chat. If possible, of course, I would also love to play you in some training games that dont count towards this bet (but that's up to you). The maximum you can bet is 3,500 Arimaa points (I don't want to lose more than that!). You can bet less if you want. So to be explicit; if I beat you in one of the 8 challenge games, you owe me 42,000 Arimaa points (if you bet the maximum 3,500). If you win all 8 challenge games, I owe you 3,500 Arimaa points (or however much you bet).
Do you like those odds? I am open to negotiation. (maybe you want to say I have to beat you twice to avoid fluke?). (oh, and I promise not to cheat by getting hanzack to help me! You have my word. He wouldn't do it anyway, would he? Or would he? Just how immoral is our favourite Arimaa baby? If I give him a fat share of those 42,000 arimaa points.....)
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2011-12-15 22:58:12 Fritzlein If froody signs up the gap will be larger, although he is better than his rating. And he complains about hanzack sandbagging!
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I am not sandbagging! I don't give a stuff about my rating. What I don't do is play weak bots that I can beat easily. When I start to get on top of Marwin my rating will shoot up. (And how are we going to manage dear hanzack? aaaa has already threated him with legal action, but that's not going to phase hanzack. Does anyone have hanzack's physical location then I can fly there and smack him? ((and stand over him preventing his twitchy finger from accidentally pressing that R button)). All I know is that he lives under a lake and he hunts onions that come to the lake to drink).
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2011-12-15 23:00:02 Fritzlein Hmmm, if froody does sign up, I will play him in the first round
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Really? Am I going to be punished cos I played in 2008 and have a low WHRE? Would it be cheating/immoral if I made a new account to get a high gameroom rating and no WHRE? (I might be confused about how this works). It seems very unfair for me to be punished cos I played in 2008 WC. Not that I care. I will win on merit. I don't care who I play or in what order.
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2011-12-15 22:44:18 Fritzlein I never get pyshced up; instead I always pysch myself out
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I will exploit this weakness. I think you're already on edge because you made two terrible blunders concerning your postal game with Jean. Firstly you played the wrong 7g in the game, and secondly after the game you were emotional and pompous in saying roughly that 'two arimaa GMs would not miss that move', then it turned out that c&g *did* think it was the strongest move!
“Arimaa is war over the board. The object is to crush the opponents mind”
Fear me.
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| « Last Edit: Dec 16th, 2011, 1:36am by froody » |
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froody
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Re: random froody thoughts
« Reply #1 on: Dec 16th, 2011, 1:22am » |
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You can also bet 8417.5 arimaa points. If you want.
35353.5 would also be a good number to bet.
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| « Last Edit: Dec 16th, 2011, 1:30am by froody » |
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chessandgo
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Re: random froody thoughts
« Reply #2 on: Dec 16th, 2011, 5:54am » |
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on Dec 16th, 2011, 1:17am, froody wrote:then it turned out that c&g *did* think it was the strongest move!
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Here is me denying this.
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froody
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Re: random froody thoughts
« Reply #3 on: Dec 16th, 2011, 6:12am » |
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on Dec 16th, 2011, 5:54am, chessandgo wrote:
You said in the comments that you expected him to play aaaa's 7g. So now you're telling me you didn't expect Fritzlein to play the strongest move!?
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Fritzlein
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Re: random froody thoughts
« Reply #4 on: Dec 16th, 2011, 9:45am » |
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on Dec 16th, 2011, 1:17am, froody wrote:>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
2011-12-15 22:48:15 Fritzlein I'm willing to take froody's 100 to 1 bet
2011-12-15 22:48:25 ingwa The highest I ever played in was the Swedish go championship
2011-12-15 22:49:11 Fritzlein If he doesn't win the World Championship, he owes me 100 Arimaa Points. If he does win the World Championship, I owe him 10000 Arimaa Points.
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Done. *Shake* |
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Excellent. Now we will have eleven participants! Note that the entry fee for you is 11800 Arimaa points, and you should enter ASAP because it goes up 100 Arimaa points every day.
Quote:| Fritzlein: I offer you another gamble: 12 to 1 odds that I will beat you before the 2012 WC has finished. Providing you have played me in at least 8 challenge games. |
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No thanks. $100 is a large gamble for me, and I would rather not up the stakes beyond that. Furthermore, the terms of the existing bet give me a strong incentive not to help train you until after the World Championship is over. Fortunately for you, there are many other people in the Arimaa community who freely share their insights and much has already been publicly written which you can study up on. And once March has passed and the dust has settled, I'll be happy to play you more training games and discuss the results with you.
Quote:| (oh, and I promise not to cheat by getting hanzack to help me! You have my word. He wouldn't do it anyway, would he? Or would he? Just how immoral is our favourite Arimaa baby? If I give him a fat share of those 42,000 arimaa points.....) |
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Good man, promising not to cheat even though THIS IS WAR! 
Quote:| I am not sandbagging! I don't give a stuff about my rating. |
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True dat. I have never seen you lose a game on purpose, which is the definition of sandbagging. Merely not caring about ratings has a long and glorious tradition, starting with the great PMertens.
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2011-12-15 23:00:02 Fritzlein Hmmm, if froody does sign up, I will play him in the first round
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Supposing the only registrants are you and the current ten, and supposing I understand the pairing priorities given in the tournament rules, and supposing I am correct that nothing can change WHRE ratings between now and tournament begin, the first-round pairings will be
chessandgo-bye
Fritzlein-froody
Adanac-Harren
Nombril-ocmiente
Tuks-woh
rabbits-Simon
Quote:| Am I going to be punished cos I played in 2008 and have a low WHRE? |
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At the moment it makes no difference whether WHRE or WHR rating is used; you will be the lowest seed either way. But yes, you are punished in the sense that you still have an opportunity to raise your WHR rating before the tournament, but no opportunity to raise your WHRE rating.
I think Omar made a mistake with the seeding. He eventually wants the WHRE to the the "official" rating, replacing the WHR. The rationale is sound: WHRE is hard to manipulate because you can't choose your opponents, but WHR is more vulnerable to manipulation because you can choose your opponents. However, WHRE still has the weakness that it doesn't encompass many games, so there are not many opportunities to prove your rating in this system. I don't think Omar thought through the consequences very carefully.
Quote:| Not that I care. I will win on merit. I don't care who I play or in what order. |
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That's the spirit!
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2011-12-15 22:44:18 Fritzlein I never get pyshced up; instead I always pysch myself out
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I will exploit this weakness. |
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Good strategy! Psychology might be an even bigger weakness for me than my goal attack incompetence. But part of my reasoning in accepting your bet is that chessandgo is also in the field. You might beat me this year, but you are too far behind the champ to compete at the moment. From a distance it might look like he and I are on the same plane, but let me assure you from up close that he is not just a little better than me.
Quote:| I think you're already on edge because you made two terrible blunders concerning your postal game with Jean. Firstly you played the wrong 7g in the game, and secondly after the game you were emotional and pompous in saying roughly that 'two arimaa GMs would not miss that move' |
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That interpretation fits all the available evidence. I am prone to emotional reactions and even more prone to pomposity. 
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I do. It gives spice to my Arimaa life.
P.S. Your chat today makes me wonder whether you are delaying registration on purpose. If you want to back out of the bet today because the registration fee is too high, I understand and release you from the obligation. It's easy to talk smack when it is free or only costs a dollar, but the fact that you didn't register immediately when accepting the bet shows your true level of confidence in your chances to win.
It makes sense that you want to hedge, but if you don't call off the bet now, I will still want my $1 later even if you fail to play. We will have collectively set the market price of trash talk with no action at 100 Arimaa points. 
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ocmiente
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Re: random froody thoughts
« Reply #5 on: Dec 16th, 2011, 10:39am » |
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on Dec 16th, 2011, 9:45am, Fritzlein wrote:| ...and supposing I am correct that nothing can change WHRE ratings between now and tournament begin... |
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Do World League games count toward the WHRE? What about autopostal?
I had trouble finding the specification for how WHRE is calculated - and I'm not sure I found the right one. This is the closest I have found:
on Nov 12th, 2009, 7:18pm, omar wrote:...If the 'event' field in the games archive is not set to 'casual game' then it is an event game, but exclude ones that begin with 'bad ', 'test ' or 'trial '.
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on Dec 16th, 2011, 9:45am, Fritzlein wrote:
WHRE still has the weakness that it doesn't encompass many games, so there are not many opportunities to prove your rating in this system.
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QFT
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Fritzlein
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Re: random froody thoughts
« Reply #6 on: Dec 16th, 2011, 11:17am » |
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on Dec 16th, 2011, 10:39am, ocmiente wrote:| Do World League games count toward the WHRE? What about autopostal? |
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Good point. I expect that both of those count toward WHRE, so my above pairings probably won't happen. Froody has 18 rated event games; I don't see how that adds up without the autopostals, so further autopostals could stir the pot. And with AWL games counting, we could see seeds shifting already this weekend. Adanac might slip to fourth seed (or even fifth!) with a loss to woh, depending on how volatile the ratings are. Also if woh loses and you win, you would probably jump past him to take over the eighth seed.
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froody
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Re: random froody thoughts
« Reply #8 on: Dec 16th, 2011, 1:40pm » |
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Nope. That was a genuine blunder. Most of my attention was going to the conversation about programming in chat, so I wasn't really taking the game very seriously. I assure you; you're about to see my rating skyrocket! I have nothing to gain from sandbagging.
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froody
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Re: random froody thoughts
« Reply #9 on: Dec 17th, 2011, 1:14am » |
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autopostal counts for WHRE?
but in the autopostal email it says:
"If you do not want to play this game, click the Start button and
then click Resign. The game will not be counted if you resign
on the first move."
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Fritzlein
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Re: random froody thoughts
« Reply #10 on: Dec 17th, 2011, 6:41am » |
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I believe if you resign before 3g, the game doesn't even get a permanent number or go into the game database.
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woh
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Re: random froody thoughts
« Reply #11 on: Dec 17th, 2011, 7:21am » |
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on Dec 16th, 2011, 10:39am, ocmiente wrote:
Do World League games count toward the WHRE? What about autopostal?
I had trouble finding the specification for how WHRE is calculated - and I'm not sure I found the right one. This is the closest I have found:
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on Nov 12th, 2009, 7:18pm, omar wrote: If the 'event' field in the games archive is not set to 'casual game' then it is an event game, but exclude ones that begin with 'bad ', 'test ' or 'trial '.
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This is corerct. So World League and Auto Postal games are included in the WHRE calculation. All rated games on the Event games page are counted. You find this page via the Navigation pane in the gameroom under Games.
on Dec 17th, 2011, 6:41am, Fritzlein wrote:| I believe if you resign before 3g, the game doesn't even get a permanent number or go into the game database. |
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Fritzlein is right. When you resign before 3g the game is not registered. And thus not included in WHRE.
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froody
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Re: random froody thoughts
« Reply #12 on: Dec 17th, 2011, 7:45am » |
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but that means you can avoid playing people you're afraid of and manipulate WHRE?
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Fritzlein
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Re: random froody thoughts
« Reply #13 on: Dec 17th, 2011, 9:09am » |
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on Dec 17th, 2011, 7:45am, froody wrote:| but that means you can avoid playing people you're afraid of and manipulate WHRE? |
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Yes, but don't forget about manipulating the WHRE by getting advice from computers, getting advice from friends, getting your friends to sign up and lose games to you on purpose, and by creating sockpuppet accounts that lose to your main account on purpose.
The plethora of ways to manipulate ratings is the main reason behind the communal aversion to having ratings play a strong role in determining the World Champion. Most people want the tournament to be largely self-contained. It is a very unpopular idea to have entry to the World Championship be limited by rating. Most people support a tournament format that gives a mild benefit to higher seeds, but there was general disapproval of the original incarnation of the floating elimination algorithm that gave the top seed a large advantage over the second seed. The latest incarnation of floating elimination by aaaa is meant to address those objections by reducing the importance of seeding by rating.
Omar is apparently the biggest fan of having ratings be largely influential in the World Championship tournament. He rightly points out that WHR ratings are generally accurate because the major distorting factor of bots have been removed. My counter-argument is that the ratings are accurate only because the incentive to manipulate them by cheating is still small. If he amps up the entry fee and makes ratings an important factor in winning the big bucks, then the ratings will no longer be accurate. Creating strong incentives to distort ratings will result in distorted ratings, even though Omar is trying, via WHRE, to make ratings harder to manipulate.
Your persistent comments in chat and in the forum about all the ways it occurs to you to cheat reinforce my opposition to a large entry fee and large prize pool for the World Championship. Next year the community will run the tournament, the entry fee will drop back to only $10, we have fifty people entered, and it will obviously be just for fun. This will remove one lame reason for cheating, although there will always be some people who are sufficiently lame that any reason will suffice.
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froody
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Re: random froody thoughts
« Reply #14 on: Dec 18th, 2011, 3:51am » |
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on Dec 17th, 2011, 9:09am, Fritzlein wrote:
Your persistent comments in chat and in the forum about all the ways it occurs to you to cheat reinforce my opposition to a large entry fee and large prize pool for the World Championship. Next year the community will run the tournament, the entry fee will drop back to only $10, we have fifty people entered, and it will obviously be just for fun. This will remove one lame reason for cheating, although there will always be some people who are sufficiently lame that any reason will suffice.
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Oh. come. ON. If you think _that's_ persistent, then you've never seen me be persistent. It's not my fault I was born with a criminal mind! 
And it's silly to suggest it has anything to do with the money. If all the money went to the champion, so you could get 1000$ by cheating, then MAYBE. But with the money spread out there is hardly any point. I have much better ways to cheat myself some money. I already hacked into a bank...
I don't like the high entry fee, but just because I want to see as many people as possible playing. Probably 10 - 40 $ is a good number. With some scholarships for talented rising Arimaa babies.
And cheating is not lame. Being immoral is lame. I am never immoral, but I like cheating. You'd probably say my telepathic link with gaia is cheating, but I can't turn that off. One day you will lose your ego and join the global consciousness.
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