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Title: Move 4 Post by NIC1138 on May 7th, 2007, 6:45pm OK, I think chessandgo will play 4w Ed6e Ee6s me7s Db1n, What is our list of possible evading / counter-attack maneuvers? (I don't really have a clue what Jean will play, I just wanted to start the thread before Fritz! ;D) |
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Title: Re: Move 4 Post by RonWeasley on May 7th, 2007, 7:53pm A variation on that would be 4w Ed6n me7s Ed7e Db1n. |
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Title: Re: Move 4 Post by Fritzlein on May 7th, 2007, 8:48pm Thanks for starting the thread NIC. You just beat me to it. ;) I also have no clue what chessandgo will play, but let's remember what 99of9 said in the other thread before we picked his move: on 05/04/07 at 06:24:56, 99of9 wrote:
At the end of that line I would look at 4w Ed6n me7s Ed7e Hb3n 4b ed3e Md2n Md3n ee3w 5w me6s Ee7s Hb4e Md4e 5b ed3n Me4e ed4e me5w |
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Title: Re: Move 4 Post by NIC1138 on May 11th, 2007, 10:40pm What if we vote on what we think chessandgo should play?? ;D Hey, here is a good taunt for us to enter! "There are 7 animals on your side of the board: The elephant, the camel, the horse, the dog, the cat, the rabbit and... the CHICKEN!" |
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Title: Re: Move 4 Post by 99of9 on May 12th, 2007, 4:26am on 05/11/07 at 22:40:47, NIC1138 wrote:
I think that's your best taunt yet NIC. But let's save it for when Jean declines a sharp line. |
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Title: Re: Move 4 Post by RonWeasley on May 14th, 2007, 11:24am If another day goes by without gold moving, I'm going to use NIC's taunt but change "chicken" to "snail". Or maybe escargot. |
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Title: Re: Move 4 Post by The_Jeh on May 15th, 2007, 10:20pm Chessandgo has time to post in the forums, but not enough time to make a move. Either he is examining every possible line, or he is wallowing in a bog of vacillation. |
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Title: Re: Move 4 Post by Fritzlein on May 15th, 2007, 10:43pm Sometimes I am also guilty of posting in the forums without moving in my postal games. It can take less energy to spout off my opinion than to find a good move! |
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Title: Re: Move 4 Post by NIC1138 on May 16th, 2007, 8:13am on 05/14/07 at 11:24:16, RonWeasley wrote:
Maybe slug, like those that came out of your mouth that time! ;D |
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Title: Re: Move 4 Post by The_Jeh on May 18th, 2007, 9:25pm Maybe he's testing the Mob's ability to stand fast as a team. He wants to see if the long period he is taking to make a move creates disinterest among Mob members and discontinuity of strategy. We mustn't give in! We must outlast this seige! (Has anyone asked him what's up?) |
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Title: Re: Move 4 Post by Fritzlein on May 19th, 2007, 9:56pm This game could easily take two years to complete, so the Mob's ability to stand fast and not lose interest will be amply tested before it is over. I imagine the number of active participants will wax and wane based on everyone's time commitments, but hopefully we'll be able to stay over ten voters on each move. If someone drifts away, someone else might take his place. For example, I noticed Adanac just today played a few live games after a long hiatus. He would be a powerful analyst for the Mob if we could convince him to join. |
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Title: Re: Move 4 Post by RonWeasley on May 21st, 2007, 12:07pm Maybe because I called him a snail, using NIC's taunt, he is baiting us. If we think he's baiting us, I should call him a WORM next. But there's no reason to get overconfident. He hasn't moved against me in our owl game in over a week. This is a game he has clearly already won, so he's not delaying out of fear. He's probably busy playing chess or go, taking exams, or training a new owl. |
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Title: Re: Move 4 Post by RonWeasley on May 25th, 2007, 6:29am 4w Db1n Hb3n Hb4n Db2n I'd like to see discussion until Wednesday May 30 and voting completed on Thursday May 31. We want to avoid gold securing the c6 trap. I think our elephant has to stay close enough to push the H off c5 if it goes there. I don't think we need to commit our camel to the c6 trap right away. Other than that, I hope to upset gold's position, but there's not much we can do now. Pull the M? |
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Title: Re: Move 4 Post by arimaa_master on May 25th, 2007, 8:09am My very first proposal - flip the Gold camel by: 4b ed3e Md2n Md3n ee3w - it is leading in very interesting sharp lines (it seems to me that better for us) - or if it will be avoided by chessandgo - (with some sort of defensive move) then we are threatening the rabbit pull at least. |
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Title: Re: Move 4 Post by Fritzlein on May 25th, 2007, 1:59pm Ah, chessandgo's move couldn't have made me happier! True, it would have been interesting and complicated for chessandgo to harass our camel, but if he had done that he would basically be conceding that he had wasted time in the opening, and that we are now equal. His horse advance is the consistent move; indeed his intention to advance a horse justifies his dive into the center on move 3w. Instead of playing a messy but equal dual-lone-elephant line, chessandgo is playing for advantage with an elephant-horse attack. He probably believes he is ahead right now due to getting in the first shot. I believe, on the contrary, that we are ahead right now, due to the vulnerability of his horse. This game will give us a chance to get to the heart of today's central dispute in Arimaa opening theory, namely when and whether an elephant taking a horse hostage is a good thing. But first we have to look at the camel flip, since that is clearly the critical line. By critical, I mean it leads to sharp and forcing variations (as arimaa_master points out), so it could give us a clear advantage. On the other hand, it is very committal, and could easily lead to a clear disadvantage. It's one of those lines you just have to study in tactical detail to know. Strategically the sequence 4b ed3e Md2n Md3n ee3w 5w Hb5e Hc5n cc7e Hc6n appears to be bad for us. Of course we can't expect to capture the gold camel while the gold elephant is between our traps, and the gold horse in the west will make it very difficult for us to even get a camel hostage in the west. If we are going to come out of this line with a permanent advantage, it would almost have to be a camel hostage in the east. But since Gold has immediate tactical threats in the west, I don't see how we have time to get the camel towards the east. 4b ed3e Md2n Md3n ee3w 5w Hb5e Hc5n cc7e Hc6n 5b Md4e ed3n Me4n ed4e 6w Ed6e Me5w Md5w Ee6w seems to leave us with with no compensation for the gold horse anchored on c7. Perhaps more promising is preserving the tension with 4b ed3e Md2n Md3n ee3w 5w Hb5e Hc5n cc7e Hc6n 5b hb6s hb5e rb7s xxxx similar to what PMertens tried in game 50388 (http://arimaa.com/arimaa/games/jsShowGame.cgi?gid=50388&s=w) against chessandgo, but if we do that, chessandgo apparently wouldn't have to engage in a slugfest. He could extract his horse from the fray with 6w Hc7s rb6s Hc6w xxxx, not only renewing the threat to our horse, but also strategically threatening to safety his horse and camel next move, leaving us with no compensation for our exposed rabbit. Of course, we have to look more carefully at the tactics than my superficial take, but my first impression is that the camel flip is a red herring that gets us in trouble after chessandgo puts his horse on c7. On the other hand, as a reminder how important the exact tactics are, I note that pulling the camel as Ron Weasley suggests (rather than flipping it) changes everything because chessandgo can't get his horse to c7 any more. After 4b ed3n Md2n ed4w Md3n our elephant watches the c5 square. Yes, that move makes it easier for chessandgo to bring his camel to safety, but if he merely defends like that, we have gained valuable time. For now, let me leave the analysis of the sharp lines to folks who like sharp lines. My inclination is to immediately take the exposed horse hostage with our elephant, before that horse can pull any rabbits. The choice is whether to put our elephant on c5 or b4. The problem with c5 is that the dog on b3 can immediately unfreeze the hostage horse, but there is a subtle tactical point in favor of c5. After 4b ed3n ed4n ed5w me7w chessandgo can't flip our camel for fear of 4b ed3n ed4n ed5w me7w 5w Ed6e md7s md6s Ee6w 5b ec5s ec4e md5w ed4n when our camel has excellent play against the advanced horse. So instead of flipping our camel, chessandgo would have to look at whether he can threaten a rabbit pull before our camel gets across. If 4b ed3n ed4n ed5w me7w 5w Db3n Hb5w Ha5n Db4s 5b ec5w eb5w cc7n md7w we will surely get a horse hostage with our camel, but chessandgo may get our cat in compensation, which could be to his favor or to ours, depending on how the timing and tactics work out. We would also have the less drastic option of 4b ed3n ed4n ed5w me7w 5w Db3n Hb5w Ha5n Db4s 5b hb6s hb5w cc7n md7w when I think our camel can get to his horse before his camel gets to our horse. We would have to check out the tactics to be sure, but I think that the exposed horse is more a liability than an asset. Furthemore, I don't think chessandgo can do better by using 4b to put the horse on a5 or a7 instead of on a6. Any way we come out ahead, for example 4b ed3n ed4n ed5w me7w 5w Db3n Hb5w Db4s Md2n 5b ec5w rb7w cc7w md7w I think that putting our elephant on c5 stops chessandgo's attack cold. At the end of the day, the main reason I would rather put our elephant on b4 than on c5 is that if we go to c5, chessandgo has the option of running away to fight another day: 4b ed3n ed4n ed5w me7w 5w Db3n Hb5w Ha5s Db4s and then we are just back to a lone-elephant race in which we are even. I don't want to just scare away chessandgo and let him get off even; I want to punish his audacious advance! Therefore my main focus of analysis is 4b ed3n ed4w ec4w xxxx with the idea of shutting out his dog, forcing his elephant to come to c5, which in turn makes it easier for our camel to get across. Unfortunately, I'm not sure we can tactically afford to use our fourth step to bring our camel over right away. 4b ed3n ed4w ec4w me7w 5w Ed6s md7s Ed5w md6s looks like a recipe for trouble for us. Therefore I'm inclined to instead make space for our camel in advance by moving our b7 rabbit out of the way. If chessandgo's elephant doesn't come to c5, we will cross with our camel for a clear advantage to us. Therefore he might try to pull our rabbit to a6, making it very awkward for our camel to grab his horse. Thus perhaps 4b ed3n ed4w ec4w rb7w 5w Ed6s Ed5w Hb5w Ha5n will look attractive to him, but then our trap springs closed! There is a race to see whether our camel gets to his horse first, or ours gets to his first, but I think we win 4b ed3n ed4w ec4w rb7w 5w Ed6s Ed5w Hb5w Ha5n 5b hb6s hb5w eb4n eb5n 6w Md2n Md3n Md4w Mc4w 6b eb6s Ha6e ha5n cc7w OK, for every variation I mentioned, I have neglected a hundred others, which could totally change my evaluation. Please forgive and correct the notational errors I have surely made. Right now my ballot is 1. 4b ed3n ed4w ec4w rb7w 2. 4b ed3n Md2n ed4w Md3n 3. 4b ed3n ed4n ed5w me7w 4. 4b ed3e Md2n Md3n ee3w 5. 4b ed3n ed4w ec4w me7w but I am certainly open to persuasion in this unclear and exciting position. Also I'm sure there are lots of reasonable moves I haven't thought of, which would potentially go straight to the head of my ballot. |
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Title: Re: Move 4 Post by jdb on May 27th, 2007, 8:18am How about 4b 4b ed3n ed4w ec4w dd8n Putting the camel on d7 looks troubling since gold can then threaten the camel and silver is only threatening a horse. With the dog on d7 silver gets to threaten the stronger piece. If gold flips the dog, silver pushes the horse onto the trap. If gold goes after the dog, it can run to the a file since there is no horse on that side to assist the camel. |
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Title: Re: Move 4 Post by Fritzlein on May 27th, 2007, 11:16am Well, chessandgo already busted some of my analysis simply by playing a good move in my current postal tournament game against him. If we play either 4b ed3n ed4w ec4w rb7w, as I suggested, or 4b ed3n ed4w ec4w dd8n as jdb suggested, then chessandgo can equalize with 5w Ed6s Ed5w Hb5w Ec5w. Maybe I missed something, but in my postal game I felt compelled to play my horse to the edge of the board to block his horse, leaving chessandgo the option of creating a symmetrical and very even position. For example 4b ed3n ed4w ec4w rb7w 5w Ed6s Ed5w Hb5w Ec5w 5b hb6w rb7w cc7w me7w 6w Ha5s Eb5w Eb5e ha6s and now we have interlocking horse hostages with no advantage to either side that I can discern. I think jdb's move is even less attractive, because chessandgo not only has the equalizing line, he also can try 4b ed3n ed4w ec4w dd8n 5w Ed6s db7s Ed5w db6s playing for an outright advantage. Given that I now think my former favorite move only leads to equality, I want to take a harder look at moving our elephant to c5 and camel to d7. JDB and I looked at it a bit this morning, and I still feel that chessandgo's only option for equality it to retreat. Given that he doesn't like to retreat, he may get himself in trouble if we play it. Also, I should look more at whether pulling the camel gives us an advantage after all, because it seems chessandgo has a way to wriggle free against either horse-freezing move. I hope that chessandgo doesn't refute all my plans over the board. I would hate to have to admit I'm wrong about early horse advances. :P |
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Title: Re: Move 4 Post by JacquesB on May 27th, 2007, 1:34pm I will post my first proposal: Our situation is: chessandgo has started a timid attack. I mean timid in the sense it can be easily undone and it is not very strong because it is done by a horse against a defending horse. As Fritzlein states, the attack probably aims 4b ed3e Md2n Md3n ee3w, 5w Hb5e Hc5n cc7e Hc6n which would be annoying for us. Now, my analysis is: Why go back with our elephant (3 steps) to avoid it freeing his camel at the same time, if we can avoid it with just 4b dd8s xxxx yyyy zzzz (1 step) and keeping our annoying (for him) elephant where it is? I don't think he will pull our dog in the next move, because where would he, and because it is a ignoble task for an elephant losing steps with no possibility of direct capture and a hostage is way too unbalanced. The additional 3 steps could be used in preparing for attack: 4b dd8s me7s ce8s me6e That's my proposal. It avoids the timid horse threat, makes our camel a lot more powerful than his and, when our elephant leaves its place, it could move in just one step to e3 in support of our attack in the g and f columns. Our camel is not exposed where it is after my move, because the worst it can suffer is a one move pull to e6 which is pointless. In this position we have the initiative and our next move may be an attack more frightening than 4w. I the meantime, chessandgo cannot do much harm considering he will have to retreat his elephant to deadlock our attack on the f3 trap. He could probably postpone our plans placing his elephant on f5, but that would cost him 3 steps and we could leave a better shape for us after a defensive 5 mf6w xxxx yyyy zzzz (just 1 step). I still have a lot to learn and I don't dislike critics at all, please, don't hesitate. My proposal: 4b dd8s me7s ce8s me6e Jacques. |
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Title: Re: Move 4 Post by RonWeasley on May 27th, 2007, 1:51pm I just looked at 4b ed3n Md2n ed4w Md3n. Gold can equalize by retreating E and H or by advancing a D and retreating M. This could simply accomplish getting our e closer to the b5H by two steps. If the M doesn't retreat I think our e can eventually pin it against the h file. If the M advances to c5 I think pushing it onto c6 eventually has it becoming our hostage, maybe also the b5H. So I think this move gets the e closer to the b5H, which is only valuable if we think we can eventually bring our m over to stick to that H in a good way. We want to avoid doing this if we think the H won't get pinned and we only succeed in commiting our m to the west side. |
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Title: Re: Move 4 Post by Fritzlein on May 27th, 2007, 7:51pm on 05/27/07 at 13:34:37, JacquesB wrote:
I would be worried that he would flip our dog to d5 with his elephant. |
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Title: Re: Move 4 Post by 99of9 on May 28th, 2007, 8:18am on 05/25/07 at 13:59:43, Fritzlein wrote:
I may not get a chance to take a proper look at this position. Your top 3 all look ok to me. Another few considerations to throw into the mix (no particular order): 4b hg6s hg5s ed3e dd8s 4b me7w cc7s md7w ed3n 4b ed3n ed4w ec4w |
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Title: Re: Move 4 Post by JacquesB on May 28th, 2007, 12:42pm on 05/27/07 at 19:51:40, Fritzlein wrote:
Do you mean: 4b dd8s me7s ce8s me6e 5w Ed6e dd7s dd6s Ee6w ? I don't see the danger. Gold achieves nothing. What could the elephant do with that dog with our e at d3? It is blocking its own way back if we attack. |
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Title: Re: Move 4 Post by arimaa_master on May 29th, 2007, 2:05am Ok, I am not quite happy with any of given proposals - so my next (so far my favourite) proposal is here: 4b ed3n Md2n ed4n Md3n |
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Title: Re: Move 4 Post by JacquesB on May 30th, 2007, 11:42am Hey, that was a short debate. We are voting. I just wanted to say that I won't vote my own proposal ;-) I trust the masters. I will vote what I think is best among the moves proposed by more experienced players. As always, thank you Fritzlein for your complete analysis and I would like to see other players from the top ten sharing their thoughts with the mob. More than just moves (11 sounds too much for me, you could remove my proposal safely) I expected some analysis that could reduce the list to 3 or 4, sometimes even less. |
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Title: Re: Move 4 Post by RonWeasley on May 30th, 2007, 12:46pm In looking at the ed3n ed4w ec4w xxxx moves, I usually end up with a eb4 Ha4 Eb5 ha5 interlocking horse position. The rb7w variation opens b7 as a place for our camel to grab/store the H, but I think gold will easily avoid that. Putting something on d7 sets up a horse frame, but gold can easily avoid that too, going to the a-file with the H. In looking at the camel pull with e->c4, I usually end up with our camel sticking to the gold H unless gold plays careful defense. So I like the camel pull move better as being safe for silver and more risky for gold. |
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Title: Re: Move 4 Post by Fritzlein on May 31st, 2007, 8:39am on 05/30/07 at 11:42:19, JacquesB wrote:
It was my pleasure comment at length on those five moves. Sorry I didn't give a more complete analysis of the six other moves folks suggested. I suddenly got a little busy, and now it looks I will also lose Player of the Month by one game! So is life... Quote:
Why not vote for your own proposal if no one can convincingly refute it? I'm putting it low on my ballot, but that shouldn't be enough reason for you to do the same. You should make someone explain properly before changing your mind. Quote:
Yes, I would be happy to remove some of my suggestions as well. Are the advocates of including every suggestion on the ballot still firm in their convictions now that we are up to eleven suggested moves? As I voted, I felt that only the best four left us even or better, whereas the other seven all left us in a worse position by varying degrees. If one of those wins "by accident" it will be a blow to the team. That said, a more active discussion could have the same benefit as winnowing the moves. Indeed, it would be hard to cut down the number of moves on the ballot except via more discussion. :-/ |
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Title: Re: Move 4 Post by 99of9 on May 31st, 2007, 8:25pm on 05/31/07 at 08:39:48, Fritzlein wrote:
I had the opposite experience. There were about 3 moves that I actively disliked (including one of my own suggestions - sorry about that!), but the other 8 were all tempting. Maybe my thinking is influenced by the fact that I am currently studying a glassy atomic system where there are many configurations which have near identically low energy (low energy = high score). I admit that our discussion was not very extensive this week, and that may make our choice inferior, but I still think it's good to have plenty of options on the table. |
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Title: Re: Move 4 Post by RonWeasley on Jun 1st, 2007, 7:05am TheMob chooses ed3n Hd2n ed4w Hd3n! 11 of 15 voted. 3 voted after the initial deadline of 5:00pm EDT yesterday, but I'm glad I waited to get those votes. From the discussion, I expected e->b5, r->a7 to do better, but maybe there was something unsettling about moving the rabbit back to a7. At this point the number of reasonable moves, good and bad, is increasing. I don't want to discourage discussion of moves that may turn out bad after examination. I suggest that in the future, if a mobster believes that a suggested move has been refuted, state that belief. If nobody objects, I will take that move off my list before setting up the vote. It's personally more useful to me if a mobster finds a problem with a suggested move so I can look more closely at the others. Otherwise, I will run all moves that at least one mobster wants on the ballot. C&G relates that he is not very good at creating trash talk. He requests we avoid saying things about his mother (maybe she's helping him make his moves). |
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Title: Re: Move 4 Post by 99of9 on Jun 1st, 2007, 7:13am on 06/01/07 at 07:05:27, RonWeasley wrote:
That's a good idea, I support that wholeheartedly. |
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Title: Re: Move 4 Post by NIC1138 on Jun 1st, 2007, 8:08am on 06/01/07 at 07:05:27, RonWeasley wrote:
Quote:
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Title: Re: Move 4 Post by Fritzlein on Jun 1st, 2007, 8:08am Wow, eleven voters still, despite the reduced discussion. That's a good sign. For the record: . . . . . . . . . . . 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9.10.11. 1. ed3n Md2n ed4w Md3n (camel pull, e->c4) . . . - 7 5 8 8 7 7 9 8 8 8 2. ed3n ed4n ed5w me7w (horse pressure, e->c5, m->d7). 3 - 6 4 6 6 6 9 7 9 7 3. ed3n Md2n ed4n Md3n (camel pull, e->d5) . . . 5 5 - 6 5 6 6 8 8 6 7 4. ed3n ed4w ec4w me7w (horse pressure, e->b4, m->d7). 2 2 4 - 5 4 5 8 6 7 6 5. ed3n ed4w ec4w . (horse pressure, e->b4) . . 2 4 5 4 - 5 4 8 6 7 7 6. ed3n ed4w ec4w dd8s (horse pressure, e->b4, d->d7). 3 2 3 3 4 - 5 7 5 6 5 7. ed3n ed4w ec4w rb7w (horse pressure, e->b4, r->a7). 3 3 5 4 4 4 - 7 5 6 6 8. hg6s hg5s ed3e dd8s (f3 attack, h->g4, e->e3, d->d7) 1 0 2 0 1 0 2 - 4 5 5 9. ed3e Md2n Md3n ee3w (camel flip) . . . . 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 3 - 5 4 10. me7w cc7s md7w ed3n (smother c6, c->c6, m->c7, e->d4) 2 1 4 2 1 3 3 4 4 - 5 11. dd8s me7s ce8s me6e (develop camel, d->d7, c->e7, m->f6)2 1 2 1 2 1 3 2 4 3 - I'm really slipping. The winner was the move I voted in fourth place. The move I voted in third place came in seventh, and the move I voted in second place came in tenth! I'm going to have to be more loquacious and more persuasive if I want my favorites to win. Or maybe my tendencies are simply drifting further from the tendencies of the rest of the team. Anyway, our position still looks quite solid to me, with interesting options coming up. I eagerly await chessandgo's next move. |
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Title: Re: Move 4 Post by 99of9 on Jun 1st, 2007, 8:30am on 06/01/07 at 08:08:33, Fritzlein wrote:
So which ones could we have easily left out of the vote? ;-) For the record, I was also disappointed with how this suggestion of mine performed! ... but I was happy with the overall result, because our move ended up being my top choice. I moved it up from 8th place a few minutes before submission! That's how equal I thought our choices were. |
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Title: Re: Move 4 Post by Fritzlein on Jun 1st, 2007, 12:16pm on 06/01/07 at 08:30:50, 99of9 wrote:
OK, you've got me there. What we really need is more discussion, not fewer alternatives, and I'll try to do better on that score for move 5. |
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