Arimaa Forum (http://arimaa.com/arimaa/forum/cgi/YaBB.cgi)
Team Games >> 2007 One vs TheMob >> Move 5
(Message started by: Fritzlein on Jun 1st, 2007, 12:52pm)

Title: Move 5
Post by Fritzlein on Jun 1st, 2007, 12:52pm
OK, so the Mob wanted to pull the camel instead of freezing the advanced horse.  This has more or less taken the game out of my main experience and out of my comfort zone.  Not that I think our position is objectively bad, mind you.  I'm just confused because it is not the way I am used to playing.  I'm less clear now what our goals are relative to chessandgo's goals.

Now that I have had another cursory look at the position, I will wager that chessandgo will not retreat his camel.  Does anyone want the other side of this bet?  (Specifically, 99of9, what caused you to promote the camel drag from eighth to first at the last minute?)

I don't think chessandgo is going to be scared about giving up a camel hostage with his elephant and his horse both out in front.  If we try to force his camel to our side, chessandgo can at least make sure it ends up around the c6 trap rather than around the f6 trap.  So I am expecting him simply use his (not frozen!) horse to threaten a rabbit pull.  Indeed, with our camel so far away, chessandgo might even be able to get away with immediately putting his horse on a6 or a7.

Is it too soon to start thinking about how we would answer 5w Hb5w Ha5n xxxx xxxx and 5w Hb5w Ha5n Ha6n xxxx?

Title: Re: Move 5
Post by JacquesB on Jun 2nd, 2007, 5:17am
The camel pulls and camel flip were my three last choices. I can't avoid the impression of having played a "thank you move" http://senseis.xmp.net/?ThankYouMove

I don't foresee much, because I would make too many errors, but I try to understand what is weak and what is not. We have turned a timid attack into a solid attack. We are not really threatening the camel. In fact, we have strengthened it. The gold horse moving to c7 is no longer feasible because it would be frozen at c5, but it is still latent. It has bad-aji, so to say.

Of course, nothing is lost. The position is simply more complicated. We will find the line that makes all this an advantage for us. Don't doubt it.

Title: Re: Move 5
Post by 99of9 on Jun 2nd, 2007, 6:28am

on 06/01/07 at 12:52:20, Fritzlein wrote:
I will wager that chessandgo will not retreat his camel.  Does anyone want the other side of this bet?  (Specifically, 99of9, what caused you to promote the camel drag from eighth to first at the last minute?)


I think the best move for chessandgo includes caring for his camel in some way.  He may not do it, because he does have aggressive tendencies.  When I voted for this move I was playing the position rather than playing the opponent.  

If he does opt for camel safety it will take him more steps than the 2 it cost us to drag it.  Then we will have extra steps to do whatever else we wanted to do last turn (e.g. freeze horse and/or threaten rabbit pulling of our own).

If he doesn't do anything about his camel, I am very happy to give up a rabbit pull for a good shot at a camel hostage (on his wing of choice).  In response to the rabbit threats, I will argue for m->e5 E->e4.

Title: Re: Move 5
Post by Fritzlein on Jun 2nd, 2007, 9:20am

on 06/02/07 at 06:28:21, 99of9 wrote:
If he does opt for camel safety it will take him more steps than the 2 it cost us to drag it.  Then we will have extra steps to do whatever else we wanted to do last turn (e.g. freeze horse and/or threaten rabbit pulling of our own).

Yes, this was why I initially liked the camel drag, until it belatedly occurred to me that he probably won't take the time to retreat.


on 06/02/07 at 06:28:21, 99of9 wrote:
If he doesn't do anything about his camel, I am very happy to give up a rabbit pull for a good shot at a camel hostage (on his wing of choice).  In response to the rabbit threats, I will argue for m->e5 E->e4.

OK, so just hypothetically, let's take a peek at
5w Hb5w Ha5n Ha6n De2w
5b Md4e ec4e Me4n ed4e
6w Ed6e Me5w Md5w Ee6w
If his wing of choice is the west, how do we try for advantage there, or even equality?  It seems that the advanced horse makes the camel fearless.  For example
6b ee4w ed4w Mc5n ec4n
7w hb6s Mc6w Ha7s ra8s

Maybe there are better tactics for us, but I've been burned before by chessandgo's EHM attack.

Title: Re: Move 5
Post by Fritzlein on Jun 2nd, 2007, 9:30am

on 06/02/07 at 05:17:54, JacquesB wrote:
The camel pulls and camel flip were my three last choices. I can't avoid the impression of having played a "thank you move" http://senseis.xmp.net/?ThankYouMove

Hehe, thanks for the vocabulary expander.  Those wily Japanese!  I think that there is definitely some crossover from Go strategy to Arimaa.  Specifically, the there are times when you must let one area remain unclear, with your pieces there "somewhat dead", rather than struggle until they are "totally dead".  Giving up the struggle earlier allows you to complicate and perhaps gain tempo elsewhere, either because the other player needs time to kill you off, or because the other player doesn't kill you off, allowing you to threaten to revive your situation at a later date.

Title: Re: Move 5
Post by The_Jeh on Jun 15th, 2007, 12:02am
Although it is easy to rebuild one's reserve with this time control, I'd say Chessandgo is cutting it a bit close with only 3 days left in reserve. Well, it seems that way because the reserve started out as 21 days. I'm sure he'll move at the last second.

I don't really have anything intellectual to add. Just trying to resuscitate this forum...

Title: Re: Move 5
Post by 99of9 on Jun 15th, 2007, 12:51am
I'm glad you're keeping an eye on the clocks.  A time out would be the worst possible outcome for this game, so I think we should try to remind Jean if he goes under 24 hours.

By the way, I really like requesting Notification on these Mob forum threads, because I get an email every time people post, which is good if Jean plays in a week I haven't visited the forum much.

Title: Re: Move 5
Post by RonWeasley on Jun 15th, 2007, 7:20am
Gold chooses 5w Hb5w De2w Rc1w Rd1w.

I'm going away part of next week.  I'll be back Thursday morning (EDT) and would like to start the voting then.  I would end the voting Friday morning (EDT).  This is only a 24 hour voting window.  Please speak up if you can't vote during this time and I can get a volunteer to run the election, maybe Wednesday through the end of Thursday.

My first reflex is 5b Md4e ec4e Me4n ed4e.  This is likely to produce a camel hostage for us.  Keep in mind that C&G knows how to play against a camel hostage.  He has to move his E to move his M.  If his M goes east, we should be able to keep it and gold will try a flood of the f6 trap to free his E.  I think he will move his M west and try to get EMH on the c6 trap.  I haven't analyzed this to see any forced advantage.  We would try to freeze M and H with our e before he gets extra pieces in there to maintain mobility.  C&G is good at this, but I think our chances are better.

Title: Re: Move 5
Post by arimaa_master on Jun 15th, 2007, 8:23am

on 06/15/07 at 07:20:19, RonWeasley wrote:
Gold chooses 5w Hb5w De2w Rc1w Rd1w.

I'm going away part of next week.  I'll be back Thursday morning (EDT) and would like to start the voting then.  I would end the voting Friday morning (EDT).  This is only a 24 hour voting window.  Please speak up if you can't vote during this time and I can get a volunteer to run the election, maybe Wednesday through the end of Thursday.

My first reflex is 5b Md4e ec4e Me4n ed4e.  This is likely to produce a camel hostage for us.  Keep in mind that C&G knows how to play against a camel hostage.  He has to move his E to move his M.  If his M goes east, we should be able to keep it and gold will try a flood of the f6 trap to free his E.  I think he will move his M west and try to get EMH on the c6 trap.  I haven't analyzed this to see any forced advantage.  We would try to freeze M and H with our e before he gets extra pieces in there to maintain mobility.  C&G is good at this, but I think our chances are better.



Ok, I looked at position from fresh - not reading your first reflex - I thought about your suggested move too, but then I think that Gold can avoid camel hostage with ease like:

5b Md4e ec4e Me4n ed4e
6w Ed6e Me5w Md5w Mc5w
6b ee4w ed4w ec4w me7w
7w Ee6w Mb5e hb6s Ha5n

And I guess that this is C&A type of position (and we definitely should avoid these types of positions).

My first sugestion is therefore another:

5b ec4w Db3e eb4s eb3w  - threaten rabbit pull and dog capture at the same time thus C&A will have less time to do his plans although I donīt see any direct continuation to Gold I think that with this move we are on right way :)

(I know I know - my proposal will be very soon smashed by Fritzlein or someone - but at least I am trying :))

Title: Re: Move 5
Post by jdb on Jun 15th, 2007, 8:54am

on 06/15/07 at 08:23:50, arimaa_master wrote:
(I know I know - my proposal will be very soon smashed by Fritzlein or someone - but at least I am trying :))

;D ;D ;D ;D

Title: Re: Move 5
Post by jdb on Jun 15th, 2007, 9:20am
5b ec4w Md4w Mc4n eb4e

I think this makes it harder for the camel to get away cleanly. Gold cant undo the move, because of repetition. If he uses the E to free the M, I think we can force his dog up the board. If he uses the H to free the M, the H would be in a poorer position to help the M get away. The M could go to c7, but that looks unusual (to me anyway) and there should exist some punishment for that.  ;)

Title: Re: Move 5
Post by Fritzlein on Jun 16th, 2007, 12:06am
Before analyzing our options, I can't resist recalling my prediction from way back on move 1:


on 04/12/07 at 17:09:47, Fritzlein wrote:
Based on past games, I suspect chessandgo will not leave his d1 rabbit in the middle for long.  He intends to play (as part of his moves at some point in the opening) Hb2n Db1n Rc1w Rd1w.  He will eventually use four steps to end up at the same place as he would end up if he started with the 99of9 setup with dogs behind the traps, and then played the four steps Hb2n Dc2w Cd1n Cd2w.  Either way he gets his west wing into the same configuration.

I believe now as I believed then that chessandgo has no interest in advancing rabbits, and on the contrary his objective in the opening is primarily to pull a rabbit, unless we give him a better target.

On the other hand I predicted wrong about chessandgo putting his horse on a6 or a7, as he has left it on a5 instead.  At first glance it looks to me like that gives us more tactical opportunities than the horse on a6 or a7 would yield.

For example, Ron has already pointed out the possibility of

5b Md4e ec4e Me4n ed4e
6w Ed6e Me5w Md5w Ee6w
6b ee4w ed4w ec4w eb4n

which leaves us threatening to twist the c6 situation to our advantage.  For example, we would be threatening to play 7b cc7s me7w md7w ce8s, with the eventual goal of getting our camel to a6, so chessandgo would have to step lively on 7w already to counter our possible camel crossing.

What's more, chessandgo's other options for 6w don't look very threatening.  In arimaa_master's line

on 06/15/07 at 08:23:50, arimaa_master wrote:
Ok, I looked at position from fresh - not reading your first reflex - I thought about your suggested move too, but then I think that Gold can avoid camel hostage with ease like:

5b Md4e ec4e Me4n ed4e
6w Ed6e Me5w Md5w Mc5w
6b ee4w ed4w ec4w me7w
7w Ee6w Mb5e hb6s Ha5n

he suggests we want to avoid the position, but I would love to have it!  For example we could continue 7b rb7s cc7w md7w eb4e, and now our camel is close enough to chessandgo's horse that the horse needs to run away, but it can't run away without giving us a camel hostage.  The EMH attack can be busted by a well-placed defensive camel.

I'll look at the other move suggestions tomorrow (It's bedtime now), but in my mind Ron's move (and 99of9's) is the one to beat, and chessandgo's move 5w is questionable precisely because it allows us to play this line.

Title: Re: Move 5
Post by Fritzlein on Jun 16th, 2007, 11:27am
What am I thinking?  If I like the position after

5b Md4e ec4e Me4n ed4e
6w Ed6e Me5w Md5w Ee6w
6b ee4w ed4w ec4w eb4n

then I should like

5b ec4n Md4w ec5w Mc4n

Duh.  This latter move is my new first choice, not because it is far and away better than the alternatives, but because it  gets the game back to the type of position I am comfortable playing.  Chessandgo can't escape with a rabbit pull.  We can maneuver for for position, specifically getting our camel over to the west to threaten taking chessandgo's exposed horse hostage.  I think chessandgo would be forced to retreat his camel and put his elephant on c5, which makes our camel crossing simpler.

This would get it back to the main question of Arimaa openings in our time.  Is it good or bad to take an opposing horse hostage with one's elephant?  You know my opinion on that. ;-)

Title: Re: Move 5
Post by Fritzlein on Jun 16th, 2007, 1:23pm

on 06/15/07 at 09:20:40, jdb wrote:
5b ec4w Md4w Mc4n eb4e

I think this makes it harder for the camel to get away cleanly.

I don't think the camel needs to get away any time soon.  I believe chessandgo has time to first pull a rabbit with his horse.  Where are we going to park his camel so that he can't free it later?  His horse will be sitting in the prime spot where we would wish to put his camel.  Furthermore, once we let him pull a rabbit, it gets harder to get our camel in any sort of position to do damage to his horse, because there is an extra rabbit in the way.

How would you prevent his camel from making a delayed escape after

5b ec4w Md4w Mc4n eb4e
6w Ha5n Ha6n Ha7s ra8s

?


Title: Re: Move 5
Post by Fritzlein on Jun 16th, 2007, 4:03pm

on 06/15/07 at 08:23:50, arimaa_master wrote:
My first sugestion is therefore another:

5b ec4w Db3e eb4s eb3w  - threaten rabbit pull and dog capture at the same time
[...]
(I know I know - my proposal will be very soon smashed by Fritzlein or someone - but at least I am trying :))

Actually, that proposal is not easy to refute.  Chessandgo doesn't have a big threat at the moment, since it would take his horse five steps to push through to c7.  If he has to use a step to protect his dog, he can't pull our rabbit with his horse, and can't stop us from pulling his rabbit.

I think the effectiveness of your suggestion traces back to the way our tucked rabbits slow down chessandgo in attacking our home.  I have been ambivalent about tucked rabbits in the past, but I think I may have been selling them short.

The only drawback I can see is somewhat remote.  Whenever my opponent decentralizes his elephant to one wing, I immediately consider whether my camel can advance on the other wing.  After

5b ec4w Db3e eb4s eb3w
6w Dd2n Md4w Me4w Mf4w

we certainly can't pull the rabbit twice and allow chessandgo an EM attack against f6.  Even pulling the rabbit once and running two steps back with our elephant allows

6b ea3n Ra2n ea4e eb4e
7w Ed6w Mg4n Mg5s Hg6s

which looks at least even for chessandgo.  Still, your suggestion for 5b is definitely in the running in my book.  Thanks for suggesting a line and risking that I would disagree with you.  (Of course, you can be dead right even if I don't realize it.)

Title: Re: Move 5
Post by Fritzlein on Jun 19th, 2007, 3:50pm
I assume that the lack of folks contradicting my latest analysis is due to the Arimaa server and/or forum being down for a good portion of the last few days.  Of course, if everyone agrees with me, we can vote right away, but if we aren't unanimous, I am amenable to a delay.  We have eaten into our reserve somewhat, but not as much as chessandgo has eaten in to his!

Title: Re: Move 5
Post by arimaa_master on Jun 19th, 2007, 11:04pm

on 06/19/07 at 15:50:25, Fritzlein wrote:
I assume that the lack of folks contradicting my latest analysis is due to the Arimaa server and/or forum being down for a good portion of the last few days.  Of course, if everyone agrees with me, we can vote right away, but if we aren't unanimous, I am amenable to a delay.  We have eaten into our reserve somewhat, but not as much as chessandgo has eaten in to his!


Yes, I am for postponing too.

Title: Re: Move 5
Post by 99of9 on Jun 20th, 2007, 3:38am
I don't have much to contribute here, Fritz's lines seem fine.  Is there a reason not to push the camel first?  It might give us a little longer to look at the sharp lines associated with pushing his camel onto c6 on turn 6b.

Title: Re: Move 5
Post by Fritzlein on Jun 20th, 2007, 8:24pm

on 06/20/07 at 03:38:45, 99of9 wrote:
Is there a reason not to push the camel first?  It might give us a little longer to look at the sharp lines associated with pushing his camel onto c6 on turn 6b.

Ahhh, good point.  If we are going to answer

5b Md4e ec4e Me4n ed4e
6w Ed6e Me5w Md5w Ee6w

with

6b ee4w ed4w ec4w eb4n

then we should instead immediately play

5b ec4n Md4w ec5w Mc4n

to eliminate the possibility that chessandgo will surprise us with a better move 6w.  On the other hand, if we are going to answer

5b Md4e ec4e Me4n ed4e
6w Ed6e Me5w Md5w Ee6w

with

6b ee4w ed4w Mc5n ec4n

then we have a reason to prefer this line.  It's definitely worth considering.  My first thought was that he could ignore the threat and pull a rabbit, but now I'm not so sure.  For example:

5b Md4e ec4e Me4n ed4e
6w Ed6e Me5w Md5w Ee6w
6b ee4w ed4w Mc5n ec4n
7w cc7e Mc6n Mc7s rc8s
7b rb7w rc7w Mc6n ed5n

or

5b Md4e ec4e Me4n ed4e
6w Ed6e Me5w Md5w Ee6w
6b ee4w ed4w Mc5n ec4n
7w hb6w Mc6w Mb6s rb7s
7b rb6e Mb5n ec5w rc6s

and either way we have a camel hostage.  So maybe his camel would just have to run.

But on the other other hand, those camel hostages are both imperfect, in the first case because our elephant is behind the trap and in the second case because our horse can be blocked into the a-file by a swarm, much reducing the value of the camel hostage.

So maybe 99of9 is exactly right and we should buy time to analyze the sharp lines.  Is there any answer to

5b Md4e ec4e Me4n ed4e

better than

6w Ed6e Me5w Md5w Ee6w

that would deter us from this 5b?  Arimaa_master's suggestion seems like the only plausible alternative for chessandgo, but after

5b Md4e ec4e Me4n ed4e
6w Ed6e Me5w Md5w Mc5w
6b ee4w ed4w ec4w me7w

I think we stand better.  So I have talked myself back into favoring 99of9's move unless someone can come up with a good line for chessandgo from the critical position after the last-mentioned line.

P.S. I may have to retract my criticism of our camel pull on 4b.  It seems to offer us more play than I realized.

P.P.S. If the discussion doesn't pick up a little, there's no point in delaying the vote, because we'll still have to vote a couple of days later, with nothing to show for the delay but a reduced reserve.  Whoever wants more time should raise some issues and questions.

Title: Re: Move 5
Post by The_Jeh on Jun 21st, 2007, 12:19am
What if after 5b Md4e ec4e Me4n ed4e Chessandgo plays

6w Ed6e Me5w Ee6w me7s

If we try to push his camel back towards the f6 trap, he can then push our camel onto it, which takes away our camel's influence on the west side of the board. I don't know -- just thought I'd venture something...

We shouldn't be fooled by Chessandgo's low reserve time. He is well aware that his ability to replenish it is much greater than ours.


Title: Re: Move 5
Post by Fritzlein on Jun 21st, 2007, 8:20am

on 06/21/07 at 00:19:05, The_Jeh wrote:
What if after 5b Md4e ec4e Me4n ed4e Chessandgo plays

6w Ed6e Me5w Ee6w me7s

Nice find!  That is a strong 6w for chessandgo that I hadn't even considered.  His camel on d5 is actually safer than it would be on c5.  Meanwhile,  for him to drag our camel forward costs us a lot of time in getting our camel to the west where it wants to be.  This is a big improvement over what I thought was his best move.

The best continuation I see for us would be 6b ee4n me6n ee5s Md5e, which is useless due to repetition.  Other moves for us seem to end up in chessandgo pulling our a8 rabbit for no compensation, at least when I play them out.

That makes me flip-flop (again!) to a clear preference for dragging his camel with 5b ec4n Md4w ec5w Mc4n.

Title: Re: Move 5
Post by RonWeasley on Jun 21st, 2007, 2:00pm
I just looked at variations after 5b ec4n Md4w ec5w Mc4n where the M goes to c6 and a D goes to c5 or d5.  Mainly I was worried about getting our c6 flooded.  However, with our e so close to the M and not needed elsewhere, it seems like we can eventually get the M hostage.  A reply I used is 6b rb7w cc7w me7w md7w.  The forward D becomes vulnerable if the M tries to escape.

So I like this move best and I would be ready to vote.  Vote tomorrow?

Title: Re: Move 5
Post by Fritzlein on Jun 22nd, 2007, 12:36am

on 06/21/07 at 14:00:29, RonWeasley wrote:
Vote tomorrow?

Yes, let's vote.  New analysis could still change my mind, but I'm comfortable voting on what we know so far.  Furthermore, it doesn't look like new analysis is flooding in.  Furtherfurthermore, we will burn at least a day of reserve even if we vote right away, probably closer to two days.

Title: Re: Move 5
Post by 99of9 on Jun 22nd, 2007, 1:11am
yes, let's vote

Title: Re: Move 5
Post by RonWeasley on Jun 22nd, 2007, 7:11am
The only way to set up the vote this time is at my work computer which I won't access over the weekend.  So I can end the vote and move on 5pm Friday, or I have to wait until Monday morning.  So if we get enough votes (10) by COB Friday, I will use that move.  Otherwise I will move Monday and TheMob will lose that time off the clock.

It's really not so bad if we lose that time.  I think we will make it up on exchange moves in the future.  But the discussion appears to favor a single move, so today's vote appears to be easy.

Please post something here today if you don't like my plan for ending the vote!  I will monitor this forum and we can always negotiate.

I personally didn't look hard at the 5b ec4w Db3e eb4s eb3w.  It looks viable, but I didn't like leaving the gold camel by itself in the center and our e off to the side.  This is just my personal preference not based on any analysis because ... I'm too lazy!

Title: Re: Move 5
Post by 99of9 on Jun 22nd, 2007, 7:29am

on 06/22/07 at 07:11:31, RonWeasley wrote:
I personally didn't look hard at the 5b ec4w Db3e eb4s eb3w.  It looks viable, but I didn't like leaving the gold camel by itself in the center and our e off to the side.  This is just my personal preference not based on any analysis because ... I'm too lazy!

I looked at it a bit, and you're right, the camel becomes too dangerous.  I'm pretty convinced that we should definitely go for the camel pull.

Title: Re: Move 5
Post by RonWeasley on Jun 22nd, 2007, 3:54pm
Well, it's about 5pm and we have only 7 votes.  I wanted 10 to close the election early, so I will extend the time until Monday morning.  Who knows, maybe we'll still have 7 votes.  It was worth a try, but not everybody reads their e-mail every day.  Thank you to those who voted early.

Title: Re: Move 5
Post by Fritzlein on Jun 23rd, 2007, 10:29am

on 06/22/07 at 07:11:31, RonWeasley wrote:
It's really not so bad if we lose that time.  I think we will make it up on exchange moves in the future.

That brings to mind a discussion I had with MrBrain before this year's World Championship.  He said he left Arimaa due to frustrations over the time control.  Whenever he lost he was frustrated because he felt he wouldn't have made the game-losing mistake if only he had had a bit more time to think about the move.

Partly he just wanted more time for every move, which is understandable.  Wanting to play slow or fast is mostly a matter of taste.  But partly (and this was the more interesting part of our discussion) he was annoyed not to have full control over time management.  If the time control were two minutes per move, he would like to be able to spend twenty minutes on a single move, perhaps having saved up by using only one minute per move on the previous twenty moves.  The idea is that the outcome of a game usually hinges on a small number of critical decisions.

My contention is that Arimaa has very few non-critical moves.  In order to feel comfortable moving quickly, it must be true either that the best move isn't much different than the second best move, or that the best move is very easy to find.  It seems to me that in Arimaa the best move is usually hard to find, and it usually does make a difference.

Admittedly, in some positions making a sub-optimal moves merely costs a tempo, whereas in other positions making a sub-optimal move costs a whole piece, or a goal.  It makes sense to me to think longer in the latter, sharp positions.  But you can't dismiss the tempo-losing moves as unimportant, because if you let your opponent accumulate tempos, then  you will land in a position where you will eventually lose material even if you find the best move every time (assuming your opponent doesn't blunder).

Furthermore, given that, in Arimaa, captures can usually be postponed by the defender, positions often stay sharp for ten or twenty consecutive moves.  For example, when one side is holding a camel hostage, the question is usually on what move the defender will abandon the camel to its fate in order to gain material elsewhere.  Given that the defending elephant is constantly threatening to leave, the position is sharp on every single move until it does leave.

To make matters worse, the game tends to get sharper and sharper as pieces are exchanged, which loosens up the board and brings goal threats into play.  Sometimes, after twenty moves of tension resolve in a flurry of captures, the game transitions directly into a tense endgame where every step counts.  This means that for most moves the difference between the best and second-best move is substantial.

In this game, I feel the only time there wasn't much at stake between the best and second-best move was on our opening setup when we were deciding between dogs behind the traps and cats behind the traps.  That difference hardly mattered, but every move since has had a tangible difference between the top two.  If the difference wasn't in tempo, it was in big strategy decisions about what type of position we would like to have.

If you believe, like me, that there is almost always an important difference between the right move and the not-quite-right move, then then only time you can comfortably spend less time on a move is when it is obvious which move is the right move.  The only such situation that occurs to me is forced recaptures.  And even in capture situations there can sometimes be a question of which side of the trap to end on, or in which order to capture threatened pieces.

I will be very interested to count, over the course of this game, the number of times the Mob is able to make a snap decision.  I predict that there will only be two moves from here forward in which either it is immediately obvious which move is best, or in which the difference between the top moves is insignificant.

Moves like the present certainly must count as critical moves.  Whether to push or flip or drag the camel (not to mention counter-attacking) has a significant impact.  Even if we all end up agreeing that one move is better than the others, it isn't superficially obvious which.  If The_Jeh hadn't found a good move for chessandgo at the last minute, I wouldn't have favored the better move, so this was a move where we definitely needed our thinking time.

When will the next move come where we don't need our thinking time?  I urge our fearless leader to be on the lookout for both types (i.e. we all agree, or the disagreement doesn't matter), but I don't really anticipate either.

Title: Re: Move 5
Post by RonWeasley on Jun 25th, 2007, 7:32am
The winning move is 5b ec4n Md4w ec5w Mc4n.  11 out of 15 voted which means 4 votes came in over the weekend.

Welcome to mdk who just registered to TheMob.

Note that C&G has only 3+ days to move, so it will happen soon.  I suggest we try to move in 6 days for a while to replenish our reserve and to see if we can move that fast.  Remember that this previous move took extra time due to my absence from the right computer and the Forum down time.  I think my posting a schedule has helped and I'll keep doing that.

For the past few moves, we've had 11 votes.  Does this mean we've had only 11 active mobsters (now there are 12)?  Mobsters going inactive is inevitable, but this has a bearing on how many votes constitutes a quorum if we are short on time.  I propose that under ordinary circumstances, if we get 8 (instead of 10) or more votes by the stated deadline, I will end the vote and move.  This can, of course, evolve as the number of active mobsters changes.

Title: Re: Move 5
Post by Fritzlein on Jun 25th, 2007, 8:00am
For the record:

   .    .    .    .    .    .    .    .    .    .   1.  2.  3.  4.
1. ec4n Md4w ec5w Mc4n (pull camel and freeze horse)  -   9   9  10
2. Md4e ec4e Me4n ed4e (push camel to e5)   .    .    2   -   8   5
3. ec4w Md4w Mc4n eb4e (camel flip to c5)   .    .    2   2   -   5
4. ec4w Db3e eb4s eb3w (e attack west) .    .    .    1   3   4   -


That makes it our clearest decision yet.  One possibility for deciding whether ten votes or eight is enough to close the voting after one day would be the amount of separation among the top vote-getters.

Predictions: We will some day have a unanimous first choice.  It will be the move on which we goal.  This will be move sixty-seven.  (It's amazing what you can learn with a magic 8-ball and binary search.  :) )

Title: Re: Move 5
Post by Fritzlein on Jun 25th, 2007, 8:08am

on 06/25/07 at 07:32:02, RonWeasley wrote:
Welcome to mdk who just registered to TheMob.

Awesome!  It's good to have you on board, mdk.  To the rest of the team: this guy is one to look out for.  I had the pleasure of playing him for the first time yesterday, and he has an uncommonly good strategic feel for someone who has just started playing humans.

Title: Re: Move 5
Post by mdk on Jun 25th, 2007, 3:04pm
I would suggest that if one move has a clear advantage at the deadline with only 8 votes to use that move, but if the vote is extremely close to wait a few extra hours.

And thanks to Fritz for the generous compliments. I'm hoping that by participating in this game my understanding and analysis of my own games will improve significantly.

Title: Re: Move 5
Post by RonWeasley on Jun 25th, 2007, 3:12pm
So far in administering the voting, I'm not able to see which candidates are getting votes.  I'll look closer next time, but it looks like the data are not available until the vote ends.  And then it can't be started again.  This makes sense to me because it keeps the administrator from tampering with the election.  Somebody set me straight if I have this wrong.  If I'm right, then I can't check in mid-vote for a projected landslide victory.  Our only hope is that there's an administrator option I didn't notice before.



Arimaa Forum » Powered by YaBB 1 Gold - SP 1.3.1!
YaBB Đ 2000-2003. All Rights Reserved.