|
||||
|
Title: Move 14 Post by Janzert on Sep 26th, 2007, 1:53pm Chessandgo's move: 14w Eb5e Ec5e Ed5e md6s Janzert |
||||
|
Title: Re: Move 14 Post by Fritzlein on Sep 26th, 2007, 9:48pm My first thought is to protect the camel with ec4e and prevent an EH attack with hh6w. That leaves us two additional steps to divide between various objectives: pulling the rabbit, pulling the c3 horse, and retreating our camel. Some variants: 14b hh6w Rh5n ec4e Hc3n 14b hh6w ec4e Hc3n md5w 14b hh6w Rh5n ec4e md5n My initial inclination (with no lines of analysis) is to the middle option. Gold's exposed rabbit on h5 is small potatoes we can deal with any time, and with our horse on g6 any attack by chessandgo promises to be slow, so we can make threats in the east so strong his elephant has to repent and not change wings after all. But specific refutation in analysis could easily change my mind. |
||||
|
Title: Re: Move 14 Post by UruramTururam on Sep 27th, 2007, 6:30am Chessandgo had a longer thought on his latest move so it can be easily assumed he made a deep analysis... His elephant is now centered and mobile. :-/ My idea for the next move: 14b hh6w ec4e Hc3n md5n Out of Fritzlein proposals I like the second one (with md5w) most. |
||||
|
Title: Re: Move 14 Post by 99of9 on Sep 27th, 2007, 7:27am We don't have to protect against the EH attack if we are threatening his horse. If he went ahead with the EH, we would get a horse for a dog. so i propose we get a little aggressive with our last step ec4e Hc3n md5n ha6n |
||||
|
Title: Re: Move 14 Post by arimaa_master on Sep 27th, 2007, 9:10am on 09/26/07 at 21:48:27, Fritzlein wrote:
on 09/27/07 at 06:30:28, UruramTururam wrote:
I think that we must do three things at the same time: 1) preventing E+H attack - thus hh6w should be the only viable options (I donīt think that we will be in good position after 99of9 proposed ec4e Hc3n md5n ha6n but more anylysis is probably needed) 2) threaten something - thus ec4e Hc3n is good 3) and protect our camel - thus md5n should be the right choice coz with md5w our camel could be pushed to one wing and thus out of play.) So now is clear that my vote goes to UT's suggested move: 14b hh6w ec4e Hc3n md5n |
||||
|
Title: Re: Move 14 Post by 99of9 on Sep 27th, 2007, 4:43pm on 09/27/07 at 09:10:50, arimaa_master wrote:
Why? What do you think he can do? Is there a refutation you can suggest? |
||||
|
Title: Re: Move 14 Post by RonWeasley on Sep 28th, 2007, 7:26am 99, do you mean ha6s? I agree that ec4e Hc3n mitigates the threat of an E-H against f6 since gold must use at least two steps to defend the H. So I don't think we have to do hh6w right away to defend against E-H. One of C&G's common strategic goals is to get his E forward and push the opposing camel to one side. Then he attacks E-H on the non-camel side. In this position, C&G wants to E-H against f6 eventually. I like defending this by having a mobile camel that can get to either side (beginning with md5n), but there are other ways to defend. TheMob should think about how we address this. On the last move, we got an advantage in the rabbit pulling race. Keep in mind that advantage. If gold does E-H against f6, does that negate the advantage? If we do hh6w, does that negate the advantage? I don't think gold can make progress against our a4 rabbit if we do ec4e Hc3n. Another small advantage is gold's dog on b3. This might be a reason for ha6s, but the dog can easily escape while fixing the horse we pull. If we're going to move the a6 horse, how about to b6? I think we need three of our steps to be ec4e Hc3n md5{n or w}. That leave one step. I expect a reply of Db3e Hc4w Hb4s Ee5n. We can tighten up the h5 rabbit and h6 horse after that while blocking the E-H on f6. So for the last step, I like ha6w. My candidate: 14b ec4e Hc3n md5n ha6w. Let's shoot for a vote beginning Wednesday morning EDT. |
||||
|
Title: Re: Move 14 Post by arimaa_master on Sep 28th, 2007, 8:03am on 09/27/07 at 16:43:43, 99of9 wrote:
Ok, I reconsidered it - it looks like we can get horse for dog + rabbit in few moves horizont - so your move and Ron Weasley's one could be well playable. |
||||
|
Title: Re: Move 14 Post by 99of9 on Sep 28th, 2007, 9:11am on 09/28/07 at 07:26:46, RonWeasley wrote:
Yes, sorry. I mean the aggressive move toward his rabbit line. Quote:
Ron, do you mean ha6e? ;-) I don't think you can move west from the a column. I did consider your move, and will write later about why I chose mine. |
||||
|
Title: Re: Move 14 Post by Fritzlein on Sep 30th, 2007, 6:43pm It's a bit late in the cycle to try to get an analysis tree going, but I have a patch of time and motivation, so I'll give it a shot. First let me make general strategy comments. Before chessandgo's move we thought we were winning due to the rabbit race. If both sides only tried to capture the rabbit they had pulled, we would capture first. Our advantage is partly because chessandgo's b3-dog and c3-horse are misplaced, and partly because both elephants are in the west where our exposed rabbit is, not in the east where his exposed rabbit is. If you left all the other pieces where they were and transported the two elephants to the east, most of our advantage would disappear. In fact, we would then be losing the rabbit-pulling race. We would just be angling to frame his rabbit while he captures ours. When this strategic dynamic of the position is clear, chessandgo's move suddenly looks brilliant. His attack on our camel is incidental, since we can easily defend it, but in the process of attack/defense his elephant moved three steps east and our elephant will move one step east, closer to the position chessandgo desires. My intuitive take on the situation is that we simply cannot follow chessandgo's elephant all the way east. If he goes east we have to stay west and win the elephants-apart race to do damage. We must hurt him more and faster in the west than he can hurt us in the east. This will place him on the horns of a dilemma: either he gives up and moves his elephant back west (accepting a losing elephants-together rabbit capture race), or he tries some attack in the east anyway (accepting a losing elephants-apart capture-a-piece race). If I am right about the strategic take on the position, this essentially rules out our two suggestions with hh6w Rh5n. Pulling the rabbit is just not important right now. Also if I am right, it pays to consider moves with no hh6w, as 99of9 and Ron have suggested. Thirdly, we have to look extra carefully at md5w rather than md5n, because the camel can play an important role in making our western attack so strong that chessandgo can't afford to go east. Forcing chessandgo's elephant to come back east may compensate the more exposed position of our camel in the east. on 09/27/07 at 09:10:50, arimaa_master wrote:
The general reason for keeping the a camel in the middle is for defense, not offense. For offense our camel should be on one wing to be in play, preferably the wing where the opposing elephant is not. What we give up by committing our camel to the west is merely that chessandgo can more easily advance a horse in the east. But why do we fear an eastern horse advance? The gold rabbit on a5 means that chessandgo can't profitably advance his lone horse to pull a rabbit. The only eastern horse advance that we need to worry about is as part of an E-H attack. Against an E-H attack I expect that md5n gives us hardly any more eastern defense than md5w, because if chessandgo finds time to answer md5n with Ee5n the next move, our camel is anyway cut off from defending an E-H attack. So although I am generally a strong advocate of a centralized camel, I just don't think it is a big deal in the current situation. key: = equality += slight gold advantage =+ slight silver advantage +- big gold advantage -+ big silver advantage 14b ec4e Hc3n md5w hh6w . 15w Db3e Hc4w Hb4s Ee5w . . 15b ed4w mc5w ec4n Dc3n . . . 16w Ed5s Dc4s Ed4w Hb3w . . . . 16b hg6e hh6w Ra5n Ha6s . . . . . 17w Ha3e ra4s Cc2w Dc3s . . . . . . 17b ec5e ed5s ed4s mb5n (=+) . 15w Ee5w mc5w Ed5w Hc4s . . 15b ha6s mb5n ed4w hg6e (=+) 14b ec4e Hc3n md5n ha6e . 15w Ee5n Hg3n Hg4n Hg5n . . 15b Hc4n ed4w Hc5n Hc6x ec4n . . . 16w Ee6e Ef6w df7n df6x Md2n . . . . 16b ec5e md6n ed5e ee5e . . . . . 17w Db3w Md3w Hg6s rg7s (=) . 15w Db3e Hc4w Hb4s Ee5n . . 15b ed4w hh6w hb6e md6n (=) . . 15b ed4n md6n hh6w Ha5n . . . 16w Hb3w ra4e Ha3n Dc3w (=) 14b ec4e Hc3n md5n ha6s . 15w Db3e Hc4w Hb4s Ee5n . . 15b ed4n md6n hh6w Ha5n . . . 16w Hb3w ra4e Ha3n Dc3w (=) . . 15b ed4w ec4e Dc3n hh6w . . . 16w Ee6s md6e Ee5w me6s (+=) . 15w Ee5n Hg3n Hg4n Hg5n . . 15b Hc4n ed4w Hc5n Hc6x ec4n . . . 16w Ee6e Ef6w df7n df6x Md2n . . . . 16b ec5e md6n ed5e ee5e . . . . . 17w Ee6w Ed6e md7s Md3w (=) 14b ec4e Hc3n md5n hh6w . 15w Db3e Hc4w Hb4s Ee5n (=) . . 15b dd8s md6w mc6w ed4w 14b ec4e Hc3n hh6w Rh5n . 15w Ee5e md5e me5s Ef5w . . 15b me4e mf4e mg4n Hg3n . . . 16w Db3e Hc4w Hb4s Ee5e (+=) 14b ec4e md5n hh6w Rh5n . 15w Ee5n Db3s Hc3w Hb3w (+=) . . 15b ha6e hb6s hb5s hb4s . . . 16w Md2n De2n Md3w De3w (+=) Well, maybe my analysis is biased, because I ended up finding just what I expected to find, namely that my favorite move of the six suggested is the one move with md5w in it. This analysis is there to be refuted, but the current tree suggests to me that neglecting hhw6 on 14b will allow chessandgo to sacrifice H for D with an eventual capture of R because we can't rescue our R while chessandgo has EH threatening f6. I rate H for DR about equal with the camels and the other pair of horses still on. Also Ron's suggestion for 15w allows chessandgo a different path to equality, it seems. One move we definitely have to look at is 14b ec4e Hc3n md5w ha6s. It definitely has potential to race if chessandgo tries for EH against f6, by which I mean we don't defend f6 at all and attack c3 instead. Sadly, someone else will have to analyze that, because I have used up my Arimaa allocation for the weekend. |
||||
|
Title: Re: Move 14 Post by mdk on Oct 1st, 2007, 4:52pm Sorry I haven't replied sooner... all my homework and college and scholarship applications are really bogging me down. I admit that I haven't read through the thread very carefully and my input probably doesn't mean too much this time, but I agree with Fritz that md5w is better than md5n. Actually I think our first three steps should be 14b ec4e Hc3n md5w but I'm not sure what the best use of the fourth step is. |
||||
|
Title: Re: Move 14 Post by UruramTururam on Oct 2nd, 2007, 1:29pm on 09/30/07 at 18:43:56, Fritzlein wrote:
But what ar further plans if C&G answers 15b Ee5w mc5w Ed5w (...) - maybe the fourth step of Hc4s? Isn't the camel too exposed? |
||||
|
Title: Re: Move 14 Post by mdk on Oct 2nd, 2007, 2:37pm on 10/02/07 at 13:29:29, UruramTururam wrote:
Not at all. We can easily retreat the camel if chessandgo played this 15w with only 2 steps and his elephant would end up farther west which I am pretty sure is where we want it. Just look at the line Fritz suggested in his analysis tree. After the 15b Fritz suggests that we play we are clearly ahead positionally. |
||||
|
Title: Re: Move 14 Post by UruramTururam on Oct 2nd, 2007, 5:00pm That's the problem, I'm not so sure that this position is really ahead for us... Some more position analysis here is welcome if we are to decide whether to move our camel back or right. |
||||
|
Title: Re: Move 14 Post by mdk on Oct 2nd, 2007, 6:18pm on 10/02/07 at 17:00:12, UruramTururam wrote:
well what move(s) are you concerned about for 16w? |
||||
|
Title: Re: Move 14 Post by UruramTururam on Oct 3rd, 2007, 2:49am I am not too good in calculate moves (that's why I'm a horrible checkers player)... I just feel some uncertainties in this position. Note that the latest C&G turn was not covered by the move-by move analysis it but could be predicted heuristically from the "try to keep your elephant centered and mobile" principle. For the next gold move: Perhaps something like Db4w Da6e ra4s ... (Ec5w or something else) |
||||
|
Title: Re: Move 14 Post by RonWeasley on Oct 3rd, 2007, 7:38am I looked at md5w versus md5n in combination with ec4e Hc3n. I am persuaded that our camel is not in danger on c5 due to the proximity of our h4 rabbit and our h which we could move to h5 or b6. A c5 camel could make mischief with gold's c3 area pieces, so it seems a better place to be than d6. This commits us for a while to maintaining pressure on the c3 area. The fourth move would be ha6s or ha6e. I don't expect to pull gold's dog soon, if at all, and we might not pull the horse. We're more likely to have the E come back to the west side and end up on a square like c5. In that case we may want to retreat our camel and a horse on a5 is better for this, allowing the camel to b6. And with that, we would be able to continue threatening the h5 rabbit. So I am now supporting 14b ec4e Hc3n md5w ha6s. I'm starting the vote now, but I might not actually vote until tomorrow to allow some final comments to get consediration. |
||||
|
Title: Re: Move 14 Post by mdk on Oct 3rd, 2007, 4:26pm on 10/03/07 at 07:38:35, RonWeasley wrote:
After looking at the position a bit more I am now supporting 14b ec4e Hc3n md5w ha6s as well. |
||||
|
Title: Re: Move 14 Post by Fritzlein on Oct 3rd, 2007, 9:58pm on 10/03/07 at 16:26:04, mdk wrote:
Thanks for checking this move out when I didn't have time. I'll trust you guys and put it at the top of my ballot too. |
||||
|
Title: Re: Move 14 Post by 99of9 on Oct 4th, 2007, 7:18am on 10/03/07 at 16:26:04, mdk wrote:
How do we respond to 15w Ee5w Hg3n Hg4n Hg5n this scares me. I only said we could ignore the (E)H attack if we moved our camel north!! |
||||
|
Title: Re: Move 14 Post by RonWeasley on Oct 4th, 2007, 7:41am I would respond by capturing the c4 horse leaving the camel on b6. The dog capture and EH is then addressed by our e. This look OK to you 99? |
||||
|
Title: Re: Move 14 Post by 99of9 on Oct 4th, 2007, 7:46am you can't... the camel is frozen by his elephant on d5 |
||||
|
Title: Re: Move 14 Post by RonWeasley on Oct 4th, 2007, 8:01am OK. Gold elephant goes WEST. Yes, it's frozen and silver does not threaten the c4 horse anymore. This gives gold the E-H attack. So now I would rather go back to ed4e Hc3n md5n ha6e. I want the silver h on b6 so that we can respond to Ee4w (west) by taking the c4 horse and letting the silver camel help counter an E-H without having to worry about a hanging cat next to c6. Others chime in, but I think we want to restart the vote. |
||||
|
Title: Re: Move 14 Post by UruramTururam on Oct 4th, 2007, 2:20pm So? Shall we restart?... |
||||
|
Title: Re: Move 14 Post by RonWeasley on Oct 4th, 2007, 3:05pm I was waiting for others to post agreement or otherwise to restart the vote. Time passed without a comment, so I assume nobody found a refutation to 99of9's reply and that nobody objected to a revote. Apologies if I didn't wait long enough, I started a revote anyway. After all, I'm the moderator and you're TheMob. I would encourage any further comments about what the best move is NOW. I said I would move the a6 horse to b6. Anybody want to explain why they might rather have it on a5? |
||||
|
Title: Re: Move 14 Post by mdk on Oct 4th, 2007, 3:53pm on 10/04/07 at 15:05:47, RonWeasley wrote:
just read the thread now... ill try and do a bit of analysis and then comment. but if the refutation holds then i support 14b ec4e Hc3n md5w hh6w. |
||||
|
Title: Re: Move 14 Post by Fritzlein on Oct 4th, 2007, 4:10pm 14b ec4e Hc3n md5w ha6s on 10/04/07 at 07:18:37, 99of9 wrote:
How about 15b ha5e mc5n Hc4n dd8s? Or 15b ha5e mc5n ce7s dd8s? At first glance, the gold elephant has a hard time keeping our camel away from both of the exposed gold horses. Sure, Gold can try to launch a delayed EH attack, but why doesn't it lose H for D later just as it would now? And if Gold tries to have it both ways, doesn't he risk giving up a horse hostage to our camel, so there is no trade, just a strategic advantage to us? I haven't played out many lines yet, and tactics are paramount in such a position, but strategically it would seem Gold is just digging a hole for himself by advancing the second horse. Gold can't do an EH attack without the E, and Gold needs his E to save his western horse, so the eastern horse advance is hollow, barring some funky tactics. |
||||
|
Title: Re: Move 14 Post by 99of9 on Oct 4th, 2007, 4:17pm on 10/04/07 at 16:10:00, Fritzlein wrote:
It could drag rabbits instead of an EH attack. I haven't looked at your specific move, but i know that the horse advance also scared me because he was near our rabbits. |
||||
|
Title: Re: Move 14 Post by Fritzlein on Oct 4th, 2007, 4:20pm on 10/04/07 at 16:17:38, 99of9 wrote:
OK, we need some lines here. If we get a horse held hostage by our camel out of it, then it is probably worth allowing a rabbit drag. Apparently the move we were about to approve without analysis is the one where analysis is most critical. |
||||
|
Title: Re: Move 14 Post by Fritzlein on Oct 4th, 2007, 4:29pm on 10/04/07 at 15:05:47, RonWeasley wrote:
Yes, I want the horse on a5 because that reserves b6 for our camel if chessandgo pushes our camel to b5. I'd rather not end up with our camel on a5 because our horse is on b6. |
||||
|
Title: Re: Move 14 Post by Fritzlein on Oct 4th, 2007, 4:30pm on 10/04/07 at 15:05:47, RonWeasley wrote:
I'm sure you will make the wrong decision in determining the schedule, but I'll support that decision all the way. :P (Seriously, you are doing a great job...) |
||||
|
Title: Re: Move 14 Post by Fritzlein on Oct 4th, 2007, 9:22pm OK, I spent some time on it, and I couldn't refute 99of9's refutation. Chessandgo's rabbit pull is quite annoying in some lines. 14b ec4e Hc3n md5w ha6s . 15w Hg3n Hg4n Hg5n Ee5w . . 15b ha5e mc5n Hc4n dd8s . . . 16w Hc5s Ed5w Hg6s rg7s . . . . 16b ed4e ee4e ef4e mc6e . . . . . 17w Hg5w Hf5w He5s He4s . . . . . . 17b eg4w ef4w ee4w He3n (unclear) . . . . . . 17b eg4w ef4w He3w ee4s . . . . . . . 18w Ec5e md6e Ed5n Hc4n . . . . . . . . 18b hb5n rb8s df7s df6s (unclear) . . . . 16b ed4s Hc4e Hd4n ed3n . . . . . 17w Hd5e He5e Hf5s Hf4s . . . . . . 17b ed4e ee4e ef4e mc6e . . . . . . . 18w Ec5e Ed5e Ee5n Hf3w (+=) . . 15b ha5e ce7s dd8s dd7s . . . 16w mc5n Ed5w Hg6s rg7s (+=) . . 15b ha5e mc5n dd8s ce7s . . . 16w Hg6s rg7s Ed5w Hc4w (+=) Therefore, like mdk, I have reverted to 14b ec4e Hc3n md5w hh6w as my top move. I'll go vote now, but if the voting is extended again, I will happily change my mind again. :-) |
||||
|
Title: Re: Move 14 Post by RonWeasley on Oct 5th, 2007, 3:57pm Not surprizingly, TheMob chooses 14b ec4e Hc3n md5w hh6w. This time we had some genuine Mob panic! |
||||
|
Title: Re: Move 14 Post by Fritzlein on Oct 5th, 2007, 5:33pm For the record . . . . . . . . . 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 1. ec4e Hc3n hh6w md5w (pull H, h->g6, m->c5) - 6 8 8 8 7 7 8 2. ec4e Hc3n hh6w md5n (pull H, h->g6, m back) 3 - 4 4 4 6 5 6 3. ec4e Hc3n md5w ha6s (pull H, m->c5, h up). 1 3 - 3 3 4 6 5 4. ec4e Hc3n md5n ha6s (pull H, m back, h up) 1 2 4 - 1 3 4 3 5. ec4e Hc3n md5n ha6e (pull H, m back, h->b6) 1 2 4 4 - 3 4 4 6. ec4e Hc3n hh6w Rh5n (pull H, pull R). . 2 1 3 4 4 - 3 4 7. ec4e Hc3n md5w ha6e (pull H, m->c5, h->b6) 2 2 1 3 3 4 - 5 8. ec4e md5n hh6w Rh5n (pull R, e->d4, m back) 1 1 2 2 2 3 2 - on 10/05/07 at 15:57:04, RonWeasley wrote:
Mob panic indeed. I don't think we have ever had a move with such confusion in the middle ranks. By the Condorcet criterion, there was a four-way tie for the middle four preferences. The mass tie included the move which was winning the suspended election after ten votes, and in that suspended election the eventual winner was only in third place. There are no zeros in the preference matrix: for no pair of moves was the preference unanimous. It is fitting that I can't even remember my ballot, except that it agreed with the final results as to the top move and bottom move. I hope our position is not worse for the wear. Does it still look like we have an advantage? |
||||
|
Title: Re: Move 14 Post by Fritzlein on Nov 28th, 2007, 10:00pm In retrospect, how did we not even consider 14b dd8s dd7s md5w hh6w? |
||||
|
Arimaa Forum » Powered by YaBB 1 Gold - SP 1.3.1! YaBB Đ 2000-2003. All Rights Reserved. |