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Title: Move 17 Post by Soter on Nov 7th, 2007, 2:45pm Thread open for notifications and predictions. |
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Title: Re: Move 17 Post by Fritzlein on Nov 7th, 2007, 10:12pm Here is the branch of the tree we played, on the off chance that chessandgo plays one of the two moves we analyzed. (Although if we did anticipate his move, it will be the first time in a while.) 16b Md3s ed4s ha5e dd8s . 17w Ed5n mc5e md5e Ed6s . . 17b hb5s Dc4n hb4e dd7s . . . 18w me5e Ed5e mf5s Ee5e . . . . 18b ed3w ec3e Cc2n Cc3x ed3e . . . 18w me5s Ed5e me4s Ede5s . . . . 18b De2s me3s ed3e dd6s . . . . . 19w rb3w Hb2n Ee4w Rc1e . . . . . . 19b Cf2n me2e mf2e ee3w . . . . . 19w rb3w Hb2n Ee4w Rg1e . . 17b ce7s me5e mf5n hb5s . . . 18w rb3e Hb2n Ed5n Cc2w . . . 18w Ed5e Ee5e Ef5e mf6s . . . . 18b ce6s mf5n Dc4n hb4e . . . 18w Ed5e Ee5e Ef5w mf6s . . . . 18b hg6s mf5n Dc4n hb4e . 17w Ed5n mc5e rb3e Hb2n . . 17b hb5e md5s Dc4w md4w . . . 18w Ed6s Ed5n hc5e Db4w |
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Title: Re: Move 17 Post by Fritzlein on Nov 10th, 2007, 1:44pm After looking a bit further at the position, I am less afraid of chessandgo flipping our camel. We'll find our way through the tactics together. I think if he beats us it will be positionally, so I looked again at the more quiet line: 16b Md3s ed4s ha5e dd8s . 17w Ed5n mc5e rb3e Hb2n . . 17b hb5e md5s Dc4w md4w . . . 18w Ed6s Ed5n hc5e Db4w This allows us a very interesting try with 18b mc4w Hb3w mb4s rc8e. What do you all think of our position after that? |
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Title: Re: Move 17 Post by arimaa_master on Nov 11th, 2007, 4:48am on 11/10/07 at 13:44:31, Fritzlein wrote:
Yeah, I must admit (after careful exploration) that the camel flip is not dangerous for us at all (we could be slightly better there, though it remains very wild). In this line: 16b Md3s ed4s ha5e dd8s . 17w Ed5n mc5e rb3e Hb2n . . 17b hb5e md5s Dc4w md4w . . . 18w Ed6s Ed5n hc5e Db4w . . . . 18b mc4w Hb3w mb4s rc8e it is even more unclear I was thinking about key move 19w hd5s Ed6s Ed5w Ec5s - after that we must be aware of camel hostage so: 19b mb3s rc3w Cc2n mb2e (what else?) 20w rb3n Cc3w Cb3s Ha3e (and I donīt know what to think about this position - what could be the plan?). |
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Title: Re: Move 17 Post by arimaa_master on Nov 11th, 2007, 5:10am I was thinking about another 17w too: 17w Ed5e mc5e Ee5n md5e but after some fireworks: 17b hb5s rb3w hb4s Dc4w 18w me5s Ee6s me4s Ee5s 18b De2s me3s Cf2n me2e 19w Ee4e Cf3w Ef4s Rc1e 19b hg6s hg5s Rh5w hg4w 20w Rg5n Rg6e mf2e Ef3s 20b hb3e hf4w hc3n Cc2n Cc3x 21w Ef2n mg2w Ef3n mf2n mf3x 21b ed3w Md2n ec3w Md3w Mc3x 22w Ef4n he4e Rd1n Rd2n 22b dd7s hc4s hc3s Rd3w Rc3x we are clearly better |
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Title: Re: Move 17 Post by Janzert on Nov 11th, 2007, 5:18am on 11/11/07 at 05:10:43, arimaa_master wrote:
Funny you should mention this move. It happens to be the one my nascent bot prefers right now, so I'm sure chessandgo won't be playing it. :P Janzert |
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Title: Re: Move 17 Post by Fritzlein on Nov 11th, 2007, 9:15am on 11/11/07 at 05:10:43, arimaa_master wrote:
It seems that after the camel pull, just as after the camel flip, we can go after the exposed dog with 17b hb5s Dc4n hb4e dd7s. It seems that chessandgo's elephant has fewer options on e6 than on d5. Or is there some way he is better in this line than in the camel flip line in the tree? |
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Title: Re: Move 17 Post by Fritzlein on Nov 11th, 2007, 9:19am on 11/11/07 at 05:18:36, Janzert wrote:
Hey, I'm glad you have a nascent bot. Then there will be at least something new under the sun in the 2008 Computer Championship. |
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Title: Re: Move 17 Post by Fritzlein on Nov 11th, 2007, 9:36am on 11/11/07 at 04:48:43, arimaa_master wrote:
Yes, that 19w does look like a critical challenge. What about 19b mb3n rc3w rb3s hd4n? Our camel has not escaped, but with the configuration of the pieces in that corner is it very difficult for Gold to take a useful hostage without giving up his dog, since our camel prevents his dog from retreating. For example: 20w Da4n Ha3e mb4w Ec4w 20b hd5w hc5w dd7s dd6s If he keeps our camel on b4, our threat is hd5w dd7s dd6w hd5w to endanger the dog. Giving up our camel hostage like that is tricky, and may result in disadvantage in lines I haven't looked at. I just wanted to offer it up for consideration. |
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Title: Re: Move 17 Post by arimaa_master on Nov 14th, 2007, 11:50am on 11/11/07 at 09:15:55, Fritzlein wrote:
Yeah you are right, we are good there too. |
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Title: Re: Move 17 Post by arimaa_master on Nov 14th, 2007, 12:14pm on 11/11/07 at 09:36:12, Fritzlein wrote:
I think we should be worrying about 20w Ec4n mb4e Ha3e Da4e arenīt we going into trouble with our camel there? |
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Title: Re: Move 17 Post by 99of9 on Nov 14th, 2007, 3:07pm on 11/11/07 at 05:18:36, Janzert wrote:
No matter how bad they are I don't think we should involve bots in this game. |
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Title: Re: Move 17 Post by Janzert on Nov 15th, 2007, 3:14pm I apologize for any impropriety in using a bot to look at a position. My only experience before in a one vs. world type game was a chess game where the world used extensive computer analysis. I made the assumption that this was the common state of such things. Obviously I haven't used the bot for any serious analysis nor do I think it could be used as such, I have run four or five of the then current positions through it just to see what it would come up with. The move mentioned here was the only one so far that was even close to reasonable to my eyes. I see Fritzlein posed the question to Chessandgo and he didn't have a problem with it, but I'll refrain from running any future positions through the bot if people here would rather I not. Janzert |
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Title: Re: Move 17 Post by RonWeasley on Nov 15th, 2007, 3:45pm I haven't been worried about this. Current bots are so inferior to chessandgo that it would be a big mistake to depend on them. Contributors to TheMob are also way ahead of all the bots. From the recent comments, it doesn't seem like anybody's going to get influenced by what move a bot would make. This may change when we get to endgame. If we collectively agree not to consult the bots during move selection, let's make sure we remember that when chessandgo pushes us into a very sharp position. I think we would all be interested in a bot's analysis, especially Janzert's shiny new one, but only after we have commited to our own selections. I personally am enjoying how the various muggle suggestions ebb and flow as the discussion proceeds. I would also enjoy seeing how a bot would have handled a critical position a few moves ago, as long as that information doesn't influence the selection of the current move. Hmm ... it's possible that an opportunity can go unseen for many moves, and what I say above could be quite wrong in theory. Maybe it's best if we consult the bots after the game is over. |
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Title: Re: Move 17 Post by Fritzlein on Nov 15th, 2007, 5:06pm I am in favor of unrestricted use of bots during the game. Given that chessandgo has no objection, what is the argument against? Maybe we will need a separate vote on this. ;-) Of course I am happy to abide by the decision of the Mob. |
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Title: Re: Move 17 Post by The_Jeh on Nov 15th, 2007, 9:54pm As long as bots can't vote, I don't care. But what does this say about postal games in general? They're not secure from bot consultation. In those regular games, I would say bot consultation is cheating, just like it would be in chess. In this special game, it is all right to use bots, because they can be considered non-voting mob members. However, because our opponent is supposed to be Chessandgo alone, "The One," it is wrong for him to use bots. That being said, let's keep bot use to a minimum. We get more mental exercise without them. |
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Title: Re: Move 17 Post by 99of9 on Nov 16th, 2007, 12:21am on 11/15/07 at 15:45:44, RonWeasley wrote:
That's all true at the moment. Quote:
This is what I'm worried about. I have no doubt that bomb can usually spot forced wins before I can. Fritz has shown some examples where it can spot them before chessandgo. I would hate to see this game decided by which team is allowed to use bots. As others have mentioned, it's cheating in a regular postal (for good reason in my opinion). Quote:
Yes, I'm certainly interested, and I'm not accusing Janzert of doing anything wrong since we hadn't discussed this (and it doesn't have any influence at this stage of the game). Quote:
I don't really mind how long the bot-silence-window is, as long as it's after our move, but for purists or for clarity, Ron is probably correct that at least a few moves delay are neccessary. |
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Title: Re: Move 17 Post by arimaa_master on Nov 16th, 2007, 3:16pm I would like to see bots involved too - but one think to consider: if we will be able to reach endgame position - bots can help us very much - maybe too much. Now when I read through the previous posts - I see that this was already said. |
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Title: Re: Move 17 Post by The_Jeh on Nov 21st, 2007, 4:55pm It is finally time to reveal Chessandgo's move, which is: 17w rb3e Hb2n Ed5n mc5e We are fortunate to get a move that we have already anticipated to some extent. |
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Title: Re: Move 17 Post by UruramTururam on Nov 21st, 2007, 6:37pm The move that we have in the Fritz's tree seems to be ok... I'd consider also 17b hb5e hg6e hh6w Rh5n |
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Title: Re: Move 17 Post by mdk on Nov 22nd, 2007, 12:58am 17b hb5e md5s Dc4w md4w -the move we had in the tree- seems fine but is there any chance that our advanced camel will end up hurting us? How do we respond to 18w Ed6s hc5n Ed5w Db4w ? As for the other move mentioned so far 17b hb5e hg6e hh6w Rh5n . 18w md5e Ed6s me5s Ed5e and unless we are missing something we have an inferior position overall when i look at the position i think our camel is better on the western wing. and then only way that i see that this can be maintained is through Fritz's move from the tree. So even though I have my concerns unless someone comes up with some better move (which is quite possible) or we show that this move is clearly flawed I am going to support it but at the same time i am going to try and find any flaws that i can |
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Title: Re: Move 17 Post by arimaa_master on Nov 23rd, 2007, 8:57am on 11/14/07 at 12:14:35, arimaa_master wrote:
Since no one answered to my worries - so I consider that we are in real trouble - so maybe we should start finding another 17b. (I donīt have time now - but I deliver some moves later this weekend). |
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Title: Re: Move 17 Post by arimaa_master on Nov 23rd, 2007, 10:16am on 11/23/07 at 08:57:07, arimaa_master wrote:
One quick suggestion: what about 17b hb5e md5e me5e mf5e ? at least our camel is safe there and ready to threaten chesandgo's horse. |
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Title: Re: Move 17 Post by Fritzlein on Nov 24th, 2007, 12:19pm I am away from home for Thanksgiving, so I have no chance to analyze, but I did look at chessandgo's move before leaving. Let me give my general impression, with specific lines to follow if I have time before the voting. I am no longer as confident as I was before that we are winning. I think moving our camel east concedes strategic disadvantage, and admits that we chose a bad a plan the previous several moves. If that is the best we can do, let's do it, but I am not ready to concede strategic disadvantage so easily. At the moment I think 17b hb5e md5s Dc4w md4w is our best choice. It is merely unclear, whereas other moves are clearly flawed. Our exposed camel is indeed a liability, but our framed rabbit makes our camel more dangerous and harder to take hostage. Meanwhile chessandgo's advanced dog remains a liabilty to him. If we can capture that dog in exchange for giving up our camel hostage, then we are slightly winning. A camel hostage can be worth as much as a dog capture, but in this case our framed rabbit slightly reduces the value of a camel hostage to chessandgo, in my estimation. After 17b hb5e md5s Dc4w md4w . 18w Ed6s hc5n Ed5w Db4w . . 18b mc4w Da4n mb4w hc6w chessandgo can't carelessly attack our camel, because our horse will capture his dog. However, the position is complicated, and it may be possible there is a line in which chessandgo can mobilize his horse to protect his dog, at the same time keeping our camel hostage, in which case we have given up a camel hostage for nothing. These lines are tricky. If someone can show a way for chessandgo to get our camel hostage without losing a dog, then I will be ready to admit my idea of activating our camel in the west was wrong, and I will regret that we tried to get an advantage out of the rabbit race instead of just trading rabbits for an even game. However, if the lines point to chessandgo having to choose between both camel hostage and dog sacrifice or neither, then I think we are not losing and possibly winning. |
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Title: Re: Move 17 Post by arimaa_master on Nov 24th, 2007, 2:57pm on 11/24/07 at 12:19:02, Fritzlein wrote:
Yeah, that 18b (18b mc4w Da4n mb4w hc6w) looks very promising. Now my vote goes for 17b hb5e md5s Dc4w md4w too. Thx for explanation and suggestion. |
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Title: Re: Move 17 Post by RonWeasley on Nov 25th, 2007, 9:14am Just checking in. I like the h->c5, push D move too. It keeps our current advantages. Let's begin voting Tuesday morning so that mobsters returning from holiday have a chance to see the discussion and raise pitchforks. With few alternatives, quick voter response might let us end voting Tuesday evening or Wednesday morning and gain some reserve. Note we have a time advantage, but that doesn't count for much since a quick move by chessandgo is usually better than a slow move by almost anybody else. |
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Title: Re: Move 17 Post by Fritzlein on Nov 25th, 2007, 8:57pm After analyzing a few lines, I am more confident of our position. I still see only one viable choice for the current move, but the good news is that we seem to be at least equal after playing that one move. On the other hand, the analysis tree isn't as deep or as bushy as it sometimes is, so I could easily be mistaken. 17b hb5e md5s Dc4w md4w . 18w Ed6s hc5n Ed5w Db4w . . 18b mc4w Da4n mb4w hc6w . . . 19w Ec5w Eb5s ma4s Eb4w . . . . 19b hb6w ha6e Da5n dd7s . . . . . 20w Ea4n Da6n Ea5s Rb1n . . . . . . 20b hb6n hb7s Da7e ra8s . . . . . . . 21w Hb3n Hb4n Ea4e Eb4s . . . . . . . . 21b hb6w Db7s Db6e Dc6x ha6e (=+) . . . 19w Ec5s Ec4w Eb4n ma4e . . . . 19b hg6e hh6w Rh5n dd7s (=+) . 18w Ed6s Ed5n hc5e Db4w . . 18b mc4n hd5s hd4w rb8s . . . 19w Ed6s Ed5n mc5e Da4s . . . . 19b hc4e md5w hd4w rb7s (=+) . . 18b mc4w Hb3w mb4s rc8e . . . 19w hd5s Ed6s Ed5w Ec5s . . . . 19b mb3n rc3w rb3s hd4n . . . . . 20w Ec4n mb4e Ha3e Da4e . . . . . . 20b dd7s hd5s Db4n mc4w (?) . . . . . 20w Da4n Ha3e mb4w Ec4w . . . . . . 20b hd5w hc5w dd7s dd6s (?) . . . . 19b mb3s rc3w Cc2n mb2e . . . . . 20w rb3n Cc3w Cb3s Ha3e (+=) . 18w Ed6s Ed5s hc5e Db4w . . 18b dd7s hd5w mc4w hc5w (=+) 17b hb5e md5e me5e mf5e . 18w Ra2n Hb3n Ra3e Hb4n . . 18b Dc4e hc5s rb8s rb7s . . . 19w rb6n Hb5n De2n Ra1n (+=) . . 18b cc7s rc8s rb8s rb7s . . . 19w Ed6s Ed5e hc5e Ee5e (+=) 17b hb5e hg6e hh6w Rh5n . 18w md5e Ed6s me5s Ed5e (+=) |
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Title: Re: Move 17 Post by arimaa_master on Nov 26th, 2007, 9:41am Ok, just another wild options to consider: 17b ce7s df7w ce6s md5w or at the similar note: 17b ce7s dd7e ce6s md5w |
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Title: Re: Move 17 Post by RonWeasley on Nov 26th, 2007, 11:01am Quote:
For these two ideas, I like the mobility each gives the silver camel, especially with a gold dog sticking to it. I don't like the leaving a silver cat on e5, however. Variations I play have gold using this cat in counterplay to extract the dog and threaten the silver camel. There may be a way to avoid this trouble, but it looks risky to me. These moves say that we should be thinking (later) about gold putting the g3 horse around our c6 trap if our camel gets tied up in the west. The gold camel should also be expected to come east, so our e needs to have the mobility to meet it. |
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Title: Re: Move 17 Post by RonWeasley on Nov 28th, 2007, 7:32pm And the winner, by a landslide, hb5e md5s Dc4w md4w! We got only 10 votes out of 20 registered mobsters. We are a ruly mob. |
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Title: Re: Move 17 Post by Fritzlein on Nov 28th, 2007, 9:44pm That's our most lopsided vote since we moved by acclaim on 13b. For the record: . . . . . . . . . 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 1. hb5e md5s Dc4w md4w (h->c5, m push D->b4). - 10 9 10 9 2. hb5e md5e me5e mf5e (h->c5, m->g5) . . 0 - 5 6 5 3. hb5e hg6e hh6w Rh5n (h->c5, pull R->h6) . 1 3 - 5 5 4. ce7s dd7e ce6s md5w (c->e5, m->c5, d(d7)->e7) 0 2 3 - 4 5. ce7s df7w ce6s md5w (c->e5, m->c5, d(f7)->e7) 1 3 3 1 - |
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Title: Re: Move 17 Post by UruramTururam on Nov 29th, 2007, 9:03am Well, this time the winner move outrun all the competitors. :D |
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