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Title: Move 30 Post by jdb on Apr 25th, 2008, 6:04pm Chessandgo plays: 30w De2n Cf2n Rf1n Cf3e This move was looked at (somewhat) on the previous move. I recommend, 30b Rf2s dg2w df2w de2w |
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Title: Re: Move 30 Post by mistre on Apr 25th, 2008, 8:43pm Woo hoo! Chessandgo didn't see the block! I agree that JDB's move would be strong, but we might want to compare to: Rf2n dg2w df2w ce7 |
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Title: Re: Move 30 Post by 99of9 on Apr 25th, 2008, 9:44pm We need to be careful of his elephant. Mistre, I think your move might result in some kind of hostage. |
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Title: Re: Move 30 Post by Fritzlein on Apr 25th, 2008, 10:49pm OK, now that I'm finally caught up on the Postal Mixer, I have some time to look at this game. I wish I had spent the time earlier. :( The attacking move 30b Rf2s dg2w df2w de2w that I earlier liked superficially seems completely neutralized by 31w Rc1e Rb1e Rf1w Re1n. It may even be possible for chessandgo to play 31w Rc1e Rb1e Ha4e Ed4n, with an attack stronger than our own. Can anyone propose some attacking lines for us? When I play against c2, I find that the dog alone isn't strong enough to to get anything done. We have two other main strategic options. One is to swarm in the west after all with something like 30b hd6w hc6w hb6s rb8s. This swarm loses a bit of its bite now that chessandgo has shored up his f3 trap, but it may still be worth a try. But if that doesn't look promising and the attack on c2 is impotent, we may not have anything better than 30 Rf2s dg2w De3s ed3e rf3x. Yes, this loses our rabbit and leaves us with a lesser attack on f3 than if we had just sacrificed our rabbit and gone for it on move 28, but sometimes you have to admit a mistake (move 29) and cut your losses. It appears to me now that move 29 was just a huge waste of time. Chessandgo has gotten his weak f3 trap shored up while we have gotten... a useless dog on g2. The culprit is obviously time. Some of my energy last move was drawn away by the Postal Mixer, to say nothing of the brouhaha surrounding bothbashing. I would have had to analyze only an hour or so longer then to feel the way I do now. Strategically the culprit is wavering. We should have saved the rabbit and swarmed the west, because those two actions go hand in hand, and neither works without the other. OR we should have forgotten the rabbit and attacked the east. As it stands, I think that trying to do both has given away most of our advantage. Indeed, with our loss of time, chessandgo may now be better poised to swarm in the west than we are. Ah, well, live and learn. :) |
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Title: Re: Move 30 Post by UruramTururam on Apr 26th, 2008, 12:33pm I thought about a "silent" move just preparing the right-wing swarm. Something like: 30b hd6w hc6w dd7s ra8s The question is - could we afford now a move with no direct threat, just regrouping?... |
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Title: Re: Move 30 Post by Soter on Apr 26th, 2008, 2:42pm Quote:
Hmmm... but aren't we back in the saddle ( well, at least partly...) after 31b Rd1e dd2s Rc1w dd1w ? or, in more general terms 31b Rd1e dd2s xxxx xxxx. And if Jean attempts to blockade our dog, maybe we'll be able to launch another attack in the eastern half ( let's say something like DCR/DRR ). It may take a long time though and he'll complicate for sure... |
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Title: Re: Move 30 Post by Fritzlein on Apr 26th, 2008, 4:42pm on 04/26/08 at 14:42:17, Soter wrote:
I'm not sure what we're in charge of in that line if he re-occupies d1 and d2 with rabbits. Quote:
Chessandgo can switch his horse to the east faster than we can get another dog there. I also can think of lots of plans that will work if chessandgo just gives us a few moves to get rolling. But he's got an elephant and horse not too many steps from taking over c6, so we don't (didn't?) have much time to waste. |
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Title: Re: Move 30 Post by Fritzlein on Apr 26th, 2008, 6:59pm on 04/26/08 at 12:33:00, UruramTururam wrote:
What is the advantage to keeping our horse on b6 instead of b5? I don't mean that as a rhetorical question: I'm actually curious. |
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Title: Re: Move 30 Post by UruramTururam on Apr 27th, 2008, 1:54am on 04/26/08 at 18:59:31, Fritzlein wrote:
I didn't mind to "keep" it there, but to advance it twice next move along with the other right wing pieces - full swarm against the trap with our rabbit. |
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Title: Re: Move 30 Post by Fritzlein on Apr 27th, 2008, 10:51am Sorry my first post in this thread was a such a downer. I hope that my tone hasn't discouraged people from posting, for fear that I will criticize whatever move we choose as a huge mistake. But actually I'm not upset with the team, I'm upset with myself. It's fine when the team has a different strategic take than I do and I get outvoted. In this case I actually voted for the move that won, but I wish I hadn't. So I'm griping at myself, not anybody else. What I need to do is focus on the future, not the past. However we got to this position, here we are. If I have some time today I will try to seriously evaluate the potential of a swarm. If it is promising, we should do it, but if it is just going to get us into trouble, we should give up our advanced rabbit now. Also we need to continue to explore other options creatively. |
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Title: Re: Move 30 Post by mistre on Apr 27th, 2008, 10:40pm I apologize for my premature excitement earlier. It appears I have been proven wrong. Looking at it more, Chessandgo can delay our dog from taking C2 long enough to launch an E-H attack in the West. We would have to enter a deadly race game. Having said that - I was not for our selected Move 28. I wanted the Dog charge to play for the f3 trap. Instead we voted for a compromise move that was definitely worse than either of the two stronger options. I am still not convinced that a swarm in the West was going to work, but it was my 2nd choice. Looking back at the thread for move 28, the best two options we were going to revote on - until the 3rd one got thrown in too. It's too bad we did not recognize it as inferior at the time, and then we could have avoided that option. (Fritz, among others, lobbied for its inclusion). Now it looks like our best move is to give up the rabbit now and play for positioning around f3. Fritz's proposed move was the best I could find: 30b Rf2s dg2w De3s ed3e rc3x (not rf3x) At least this move will force Chessandgo to defend and prevent a western swarm. |
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Title: Re: Move 30 Post by RonWeasley on Apr 29th, 2008, 3:49pm I just looked at a straight dog push back to e5. De3n ed3e rc3x De4n ee3n. I get resulting positions with a gold E+D around f6, The silver e freezing that D. The horses offsetting in the west, and room to advance eastern rabbits to where our dog is. If the gold horse crosses, the silver e is close and the silver horse is free on the east side. Can somebody look at this and see if this is playable? |
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Title: Re: Move 30 Post by The_Jeh on Apr 29th, 2008, 4:44pm Has 30b Cg3e dg2n De3n ed3e rc3x been suggested yet? Perhaps it could keep c&g busy? It threatens immediate capture of the gold rabbit and forking of the gold dog on e6 unless the proper action is taken. The fact that our dog has a grip on the cat on the lee side of the action also constrains c&g's response choices. I've spent only a minimal amount of time looking ahead, but it doesn't look too bad so far. |
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Title: Re: Move 30 Post by RonWeasley on May 2nd, 2008, 12:17pm I think we're all busy playing the Owl Mixer. Let's wrap this up this weekend and plan on a vote starting Monday. |
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Title: Re: Move 30 Post by Fritzlein on May 2nd, 2008, 3:25pm on 04/27/08 at 22:40:14, mistre wrote:
Yes, I lobbied for inclusion of all moves involved in the tied vote, and I will do so next time we have a tie, even if that means including a terrible option in the run-off. It goes counter to the voting spirit to say that a bad move had better be excluded because the Mob might be too dumb and vote for it. Indeed, the fact that we preferred the move that almost got left off the ballot to both of the other two moves proves that it would have been a bad mistake procedurally to leave it out of the runoff. Whether our move 28 was a mistake on the board is an entirely different question from from whether it should have been on the runoff ballot. I'll be curious to come back to this position five years from now when our understanding of Arimaa has matured, and see which of the top three candidates we prefer then. Certainly it is a position I don't feel I have a good grip on. For the present, however, I haven't changed my ordering of the top three from the ballot I cast in the re-vote. In the first vote I ordered the choices as you did: dog charge first, swarm middle, compromise last. But on further consideration the rabbit seemed too valuable to give up, so I reversed my preferences, and put the dog charge last. I don't think move 28 was a mistake at all, or if it was, it was quite a minor one. The only way move 28 was bad is if our rabbit was worth less than four extra steps in an attack on f3. Since our dog charge on move 28 wouldn't have won any material, not even a rabbit, I still see our rabbit as more valuable than that time. In the context of preserving our rabbit and swarming the west, move 28 actually didn't waste any time: both our elephant and dog moved towards where they wanted to be. Also our flank dog distracted chessandgo's elephant one step towards the center, away from defending a western swarm. If we had swarmed the west on move 29, he would have had to give that step back, returning his elephant west to stop our horse. Move 29 was the true waste of time, because we actually put our dog on a worse square. What is it doing on g2? If we had first distracted his elephant and horse with a swarm, then we would have wanted our dog on g3 eventually, where The_Jeh is now proposing we move it. My vote for move 30 is presently 30b hd6w hc6w hb6s rb8s, swarming in the west after all. It looks like our threat still might be strong enough and quick enough to prevent chessandgo from getting his horse across to g3, and the switch with our horse makes it complicated for chessandgo to attack c6 with EH, since we'll happily rush defenders forward behind our horse (that's part of the swarm!) and his EH can only control two sides of c6. In fact, despite my badmouthing our dog on g2, it does serve one strategic purpose: it makes it more dangerous for chessandgo to meet our western swarm with a western swarm. If he starts advancing rabbits in the west, his c2 backside becomes more vulnerable to our dog. Well, I guess this lobbying for a swarm isn't very convincing without some lines. If I don't have time to post lines, I won't expect to persuade anyone. I'll vote for the swarm, perhaps in error, perhaps by myself. If I do have time to work out some lines, I'll share my impressions of them this weekend. If it doesn't look good I'll vote with you on the belated f3 attack. |
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Title: Re: Move 30 Post by Fritzlein on May 2nd, 2008, 3:32pm on 05/02/08 at 12:17:17, RonWeasley wrote:
It's not my move in any games except the eight where I'm not sure what to do. :P Does anyone remember why I decided to sign up for thirteen this year? I forget. :) |
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Title: Re: Move 30 Post by 99of9 on May 2nd, 2008, 11:43pm on 04/25/08 at 22:49:51, Fritzlein wrote:
Another option is a line that doesn't permit this, but offers a rabbit as bait: 30b Rf2n dg2w df2w de2w 31w Cg3n Cg4n rg6w rf6x Cg5n 31b ce7e hd6e he6e dd7s 32w Rf3n Rf4n Ed4e De3s 32b rh7s Cg6n hf6e ed3e rc3x Now we're actually one rabbit behind, but we have threats on rabbit, cat, dog and goal. I think the final position favours us. How would everyone play differently as gold? |
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Title: Re: Move 30 Post by 99of9 on May 2nd, 2008, 11:48pm on 05/02/08 at 23:43:31, 99of9 wrote:
I suppose he could play 31w De3s Rf3w Rc1e Rb1e and gets to a position similar to the one Fritz is worried about. |
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Title: Re: Move 30 Post by 99of9 on May 3rd, 2008, 12:00am on 05/02/08 at 15:25:53, Fritzlein wrote:
How would you reply after: 31w Ha4e Ed4w Ec4n Ra2n I personally am not afraid of an EH attack. Remember that is in some sense equivalent to an EM attack at the start of a game (where I would be delighted for my opponent to do this, because it presents an opportunity to take the M hostage). I agree it's less favourable now that pieces are off the board, but I'm still not worried by it. |
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Title: Re: Move 30 Post by Fritzlein on May 3rd, 2008, 3:56pm on 05/03/08 at 00:00:14, 99of9 wrote:
Do you mean that you are not afraid of chessandgo launching an EH attack, or he should not be afraid of ours, or both? Quote:
If we threaten to swarm, I think the main strategic options for chessandgo are (A) take our horse hostage with his elephant and try to get good play with his horse as the strongest free piece, particularly against our exposed dog on g2 or (B) attempt to swarm in the west as well, only better and faster than we do. (I think it is implausible for him to make material threats in c6 if we are swarming.) Your suggested move looks dangerous because it keeps both options A and B alive for him, while making it harder for our horse to get to b3. On the other hand, you have occupied a3 with a rabbit, taking up the best hostage square. If his elephant takes our horse hostage on a4 instead of a3, his horse will not be able to roam quite as freely, since our hostage will be six steps from capture rather than four. I think after your move we can and must continue swarming as aggressively as possible, for example with 31b rb7s hb5w ha5s rb6s. If Gold then chooses strategy (A), we might see the sequence 30b hd6w hc6w hb6s rb8s 31w Ed4w Ec4n Ha4e Ra2n 31b rb7s hb5w ha5s rb6s 32w Ec5s rb5e Hb4n Ec4w 32b dd7s dd6s dd5s dd4w 33w rc5n Hb5e dc4e Hc5s 33b ra8s ra7s rc6w rb6s Golly I wish we had move 29 back, because an extra move here could be ra6s rc8w rb8s rb7s, when we would actually be threatening to win his horse. Despite our loss of time, Gold will have to move fast to prevent us closing in on him. Gold would really like to hold the hostage on b4 instead of a4, but I don't quite see how that is possible. Do you like the final position in my line for Gold or Silver? I rather think we would be winning, but opinions may differ, and of course Gold can deviate sooner. I haven't even looked at the counter-swarm option, although I'm actually a bit more afraid of that than of having our horse taken hostage on a4. |
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Title: Re: Move 30 Post by Fritzlein on May 3rd, 2008, 4:02pm on 05/02/08 at 23:48:32, 99of9 wrote:
Yes, I had looked at this option in response to pushing the f2 rabbit north instead of south. As before, I am not sure that he needs all four steps on defense at once, as just Rc1e Rb1e initially might be enough, with the possibility of his dog coming back on defense if necessary. At the moment I rank an attack on c2 as worse than giving up our rabbit, because it seems to me a further waste of time that causes our rabbit to be eventually lost anyway with a worse position for us than we could get by giving it up now. |
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Title: Re: Move 30 Post by Fritzlein on May 3rd, 2008, 4:18pm After we start a swarm, the immediate horse crossing doesn't look quite fast enough for Gold to play: 30b hd6w hc6w hb6s rb8s 31w Ed4n Ha4e Hb4e Hc4e 31b hb5s Db3w hb4s dd7s 32w Ed5w Ec5s Hd4e He4e 32b ed3n ed4e rc3e rf8s or 30b hd6w hc6w hb6s rb8s 31w Ed4n Ha4e Hb4e Hc4e 31b hb5s Db3w hb4s dd7s 32w Hd4e Ed5s Ed4w Rc1e 32b De3s ed3e Cg3e dg2n |
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Title: Re: Move 30 Post by 99of9 on May 5th, 2008, 12:20am on 05/03/08 at 15:56:50, Fritzlein wrote:
The first. If he does it, we will contest with the E, and may get an H hostage out of it. |
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Title: Re: Move 30 Post by RonWeasley on May 6th, 2008, 12:48pm And TheMob follows the loudest voice with hd6w hc6w hb6s rb8s. I don't think we were too sure about this one, but we pretty much acted like a mob. |
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Title: Re: Move 30 Post by mistre on May 6th, 2008, 12:59pm Not only the "loudest" voice, but the most experienced one as well. Can the swarm work? I think we all want to find that out before just giving up on our framed rabbit. The 3rd option of bringing the dog around the backside of f3 seemed to be very strong at first, but turned into a mirage. Arimaa can do that to you sometimes. Hopefully, 29b did not cost us too much momentum and can actually serve a purpose. |
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Title: Re: Move 30 Post by Fritzlein on May 6th, 2008, 1:52pm on 05/06/08 at 12:48:22, RonWeasley wrote:
This is the least analysis I have ever had to do to be persuasive. I'm basically going on gut feel given how few lines I played out this time. I wonder if nobody else looked at it much, or agreed with the swarm on the basis of whatever analysis they did, and thus didn't bother to argue. I really don't know how we stand now. We may look back on this as the last time we could have given up our rabbit and still had an initiative. I wonder if chessandgo will play 99of9's suggestion, which looks strong, or go a completely different route. For the record: . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 1. hd6w hc6w hb6s rb8s (h->b5, r->b7) . . . . . . - 7 7 8 8 8 8 2. hd6w hc6w dd7s ra8s (h->b6, d->d6, r->a7) . . . . 1 - 4 6 6 8 6 3. De3n ed3e rc3x De4n ee3n (D->e5, e->e4, lose r) . . . 1 4 - 5 4 6 5 4. Rf2s dg2w df2w de2w (R->f1, d->d2) . . . . . . 0 2 3 - 4 4 4 5. Rf2s dg2w De3s ed3e rc3x (R->f1, d->f2, D->e2, e->e3, lose r) 0 2 3 4 - 4 4 6. Rf2n dg2w df2w ce7s (R->f3, d->e2, c->e6) . . . . 0 0 2 2 4 - 4 7. Cg3e dg2n De3n ed3e rc3x (C->h3, d->g3, D->e4, e->e3, lose r) 0 2 2 4 2 4 - |
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