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        Team Games >> 2011 Arimaa World League >> Potential Issue
        
(Message started by: Fritzlein on Nov 15th, 2011, 12:42pm)
Title: Potential Issue
Post by Fritzlein on Nov 15th, 2011, 12:42pm
I might be misreading the budget calculation, but it seems that we under-charged for at least Nombril (2200 instead of 2340) and civic (1500 instead of 1630).
Title: Re: Potential Issue
Post by Adanac on Nov 15th, 2011, 12:48pm

on 11/15/11 at 12:42:40, Fritzlein wrote:
I might be misreading the budget calculation, but it seems that we under-charged for at least Nombril (2200 instead of 2340) and civic (1500 instead of 1630).


Wow, it looks like the whole Ring of Fire was off in Round 1.  It should have been:

Nombril 2380
Simon 1930
Eggman 1330

Total = 5640

Actually, I'm using today's ratings so Nombril may have been lower and Eggman higher.
Title: Re: Potential Issue
Post by megajester on Nov 15th, 2011, 12:52pm
Yes, you're right. Apologies everybody. I'll sort it out tomorrow. All official ratings for each round will remain as they are stated in the wiki.
Title: Potential Issue
Post by Fritzlein on Nov 15th, 2011, 1:00pm

on 11/15/11 at 12:52:10, megajester wrote:
Yes, you're right. Apologies everybody. I'll sort it out tomorrow. All official ratings for each round will remain as they are stated in the wiki.

Oh, nice that you take that ratings snapshot and leave it as a wiki page.  That makes it easy to correct things like this after the fact.  Unfortunately new players Eggman and Dolus are missing.  Eggman was 0-1 prior to playing; he would have been higher than the present 1330, around 1360 as I understand WHR.  Dolus was also 0-1, but would have been higher-rated than Eggman due to losing to a higher-rated opponent, somewhere around 1450.

This round we're going to have to pay more for Dolus, and more every round after that as long as he keeps notching the wins!
Title: Re: Potential Issue
Post by Dolus on Nov 15th, 2011, 3:25pm

on 11/15/11 at 13:00:54, Fritzlein wrote:
This round we're going to have to pay more for Dolus, and more every round after that as long as he keeps notching the wins!


I'm sorry. I don't mean to be expensive. I'll lose more postals! ;P
Title: Re: Potential Issue
Post by Fritzlein on Nov 15th, 2011, 4:52pm

on 11/15/11 at 15:25:09, Dolus wrote:
I'm sorry. I don't mean to be expensive. I'll lose more postals! ;P

Hehe, that would help some, but your cost is your peak rating, so you can't totally sandbag.  :P
Title: Re: Potential Issue
Post by Dolus on Nov 15th, 2011, 5:20pm

on 11/15/11 at 16:52:39, Fritzlein wrote:
Hehe, that would help some, but your cost is your peak rating, so you can't totally sandbag.  :P

Ah, got it. So just before I win another AWL game, I need to start a lightning game against another human opponent and sacrifice all of my rabbits.

Easy as Pi.

So it won't be suspicious if I'm using up all of my reserve time on a goal in one, right?

Also, I think my first loss was last week on Tuesday, so depending on when exactly ratings where chosen, it may have remained 1500. I think they're taken Monday? I need to reread the rules, as apparently more changed than I realized. But I'll leave it to MegaJester to say what I'm worth. :)
Title: Re: Potential Issue
Post by Fritzlein on Nov 15th, 2011, 6:00pm

on 11/15/11 at 17:20:28, Dolus wrote:
Also, I think my first loss was last week on Tuesday, so depending on when exactly ratings where chosen, it may have remained 1500. I think they're taken Monday? I need to reread the rules, as apparently more changed than I realized. But I'll leave it to MegaJester to say what I'm worth. :)

Good point; you would have still been 1500 at the time the ratings were set.
Title: Re: Potential Issue
Post by novacat on Nov 15th, 2011, 11:07pm
Looking at the round 1 official ratings and the round 1 results, it appears all players are off except chessandgo (and possibly Dolus and Eggman who are not on the list).
Title: Re: Potential Issue
Post by megajester on Nov 16th, 2011, 12:35am
Corrected.
Title: Re: Potential Issue
Post by Fritzlein on Nov 16th, 2011, 7:15am

on 11/16/11 at 00:35:06, megajester wrote:
Corrected.

Thank you!
Title: Re: Potential Issue
Post by Adanac on Nov 16th, 2011, 9:21am
Thanks for updating round 1 & 2 roster and ratings.

One last question/comment regarding the Round 1 Ratings.  I believe Eggman should have been rated 1360 in the first round because his rating was based upon a human game versus NJames on October 8th.  So he's in a different situation than Dolus who played his first hvh game on the Tuesday after the ratings would have been posted.  Would that be a correct interpretation?

EDIT: OK, Second question:  did Boo's & Simon's ratings get inverted somehow?

In round 1 the Wiki shows

Boo 1950
Simon 1990

In round 2

Boo 1990
Simon 1930

EDIT #2: On further reflection this might be explained:  Simon had a long absence from Arimaa and maybe recent losses have strongly affected his peak rating somehow (counter-intuitive but that does seem to happen)?  Boo's rise is easier to explain as he's clearly been building up his rating for months now.

And, yes, this is why I incorrectly submitted the roster as Nombril-Simon-Boo rather than Nombril-Boo-Simon.  I got so accustomed to the first that I had failed to noticed that Boo had passed Simon on the list.
Title: Re: Potential Issue
Post by Fritzlein on Nov 16th, 2011, 1:34pm

on 11/16/11 at 09:21:51, Adanac wrote:
On further reflection this might be explained:  Simon had a long absence from Arimaa and maybe recent losses have strongly affected his peak rating somehow (counter-intuitive but that does seem to happen)?

Yes, it is definitely possible to lower your peak rating with future losses.  The algorithm concludes not only that you have gotten worse, but also that you never were as good as it once thought.  However, the effect seems only to be large if you have recently achieved your peak.  If you are currently at your highest-ever rating, it is easy to convince the algorithm that you don't deserve it and never did.  But if you have already come down some distance from your peak, the algorithm is less easily persuaded that you didn't deserve the past peak it has calculated for you.

Fortunately, there have been no signs of WHR rating manipulation so far.  I hope the AWL never becomes so competitive that people try to sandbag.
Title: Re: Potential Issue
Post by ginrunner on Nov 23rd, 2011, 11:32am
I'm sandbagging! every loss I have ever had I meant to lose  ::)
Title: Re: Potential Issue
Post by Dolus on Nov 23rd, 2011, 11:44am

on 11/23/11 at 11:32:51, ginrunner wrote:
I'm sandbagging! every loss I have ever had I meant to lose  ::)

Great! We'll let you play against chessandgo in the AWL.
Title: Re: Potential Issue
Post by ginrunner on Nov 25th, 2011, 1:23am

on 11/23/11 at 11:44:23, Dolus wrote:
Great! We'll let you play against chessandgo in the AWL.

Bring it! ;)
Title: Re: Potential Issue
Post by Dolus on Nov 28th, 2011, 3:49pm
clyring noticed that for Round 4, his rating seems to have been reset to 1500 instead of what it looks like it's currently at, about 1640.
Title: Re: Potential Issue
Post by megajester on Nov 29th, 2011, 12:44am

on 11/28/11 at 15:49:22, Dolus wrote:
clyring noticed that for Round 4, his rating seems to have been reset to 1500 instead of what it looks like it's currently at, about 1640.

Correct, his rating should be 1640. I checked on the WHR page (http://home.scarlet.be/~woh/whr/whrh.htm) I saved yesterday and his name's not there for some strange reason. It's there when you check now. I will correct the ratings page later today.
Title: Re: Potential Issue
Post by clyring on Nov 29th, 2011, 7:15am
I also notice that the Atlantics don't seem to have gotten credit for my rabbit reaching ginrunner's goal line.
Title: Re: Potential Issue
Post by Fritzlein on Nov 29th, 2011, 7:48am

on 11/29/11 at 07:15:10, clyring wrote:
I also notice that the Atlantics don't seem to have gotten credit for my rabbit reaching ginrunner's goal line.

Alas, the Rockies are only 3-6 after three rounds. :'(
Title: Re: Potential Issue
Post by Dolus on Nov 29th, 2011, 8:06am

on 11/29/11 at 00:44:34, megajester wrote:
Correct, his rating should be 1640. I checked on the WHR page (http://home.scarlet.be/~woh/whr/whrh.htm) I saved yesterday and his name's not there for some strange reason. It's there when you check now. I will correct the ratings page later today.

That happened to me before, where I checked the list and couldn't find myself. The following day I was back again. No idea how it could've happened, though.
Title: Re: Potential Issue
Post by megajester on Nov 29th, 2011, 8:11am

on 11/29/11 at 07:15:10, clyring wrote:
I also notice that the Atlantics don't seem to have gotten credit for my rabbit reaching ginrunner's goal line.

Dammit. One of these rounds I'll manage to do everything without making a mistake. Now corrected.


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