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        Arimaa >> Bot Development >> Bot winning chances
        
(Message started by: hyperpape on Feb 22^nd, 2014, 10:21am)

Title: Bot winning chances
Post by hyperpape on Feb 22^nd, 2014, 10:21am

Has there been any effort to estimate the chances of current bots against the very top humans, whether based on the WHR calculations or gut feel? I know Nombril lost a few challenge games, but he would be an underdog against Fritzlein or Chessandgo.

I ask because the computergo list had an off-topic discussion about whether go or arimaa would fall to bots first.

Title: Re: Bot winning chances
Post by hyperpape on Feb 22^nd, 2014, 10:22am

Related note: I see no event report for the 2013 challenge :(

Title: Re: Bot winning chances
Post by Fritzlein on Feb 22^nd, 2014, 6:41pm

I tried to start a discussion in this thread (http://arimaa.com/arimaa/forum/cgi/YaBB.cgi?board=events;action=display;num=1392928780), but only browni has chimed in so far. Someone needs to say something outrageous to get the ball rolling.

on 02/22/14 at 10:22:51, hyperpape wrote:

Related note: I see no event report for the 2013 challenge :(

Some talk about it is in this thread. (http://arimaa.com/arimaa/forum/cgi/YaBB.cgi?board=events;action=display;num=1363041105)

Title: Re: Bot winning chances
Post by hyperpape on Feb 22^nd, 2014, 9:24pm

I did see that after posting, but it's not quite what I'm asking. I'm wondering what the probability of a bot winning in a single game against you or Jean or hanzack (or Adanac, or browni--top player is a little vague) today.

The challenge question is so much more complex, because it depends on future advances, who is chosen as defender, etc.

Title: Re: Bot winning chances
Post by Ail on Feb 23^rd, 2014, 6:12am

This is the strongest matchup I found in sharps history. I know that browni also played it a lot but the history is not that long to still contain those games.

bot_sharp vs. Fritzlein
http://arimaa.com/arimaa/games/jsShowGame.cgi?gid=224510&s=b

Calculating winning chances from one game doesn't seem too feasible though.