Arimaa Forum - Print Page


    
      
        Arimaa Forum
        (http://arimaa.com/arimaa/forum/cgi/YaBB.cgi)
      

        Arimaa >> Events >> 2007 WC Prediction Contest Format
        
(Message started by: Fritzlein on Sep 28^th, 2006, 9:55am)

Title: 2007 WC Prediction Contest Format
Post by Fritzlein on Sep 28^th, 2006, 9:55am

I think the general prediction contest format the past two years has been a smashing success. I basically wouldn't mess with a good thing.

One thing I notice, however, is that it worked much better in 2005 than in 2006. The reason is that in 2006, there were only prizes for the top three places, whereas in 2005 there were prizes for anyone finishing in positive territory. That meant in 2006, people started making outrageous extreme bets when they got behind, because it was top-three or nothing. Extreme bets should be allowed, but I don't think they shouldn't be the optimal play most of the time, because that makes it less interesting.

Also, in 2006 there came a point for most players that even extreme bets wouldn't help them any more, because they were totally out of contention. Several players stopped making any predictions at all. This defeats the purpose of the prediction contest. We want everyone engaged as a spectator until the very end, and the rules should foster this.

For the World Championship itself, it doesn't matter that the prize money for second/third has been cut, because even if you are only in it for the money, you play exactly the same when the top one gets paid as when the top three get paid. It's an elimination tournament, so if you are still playing at all, you are still in contention for the money. The prediction contest, on the other hand, isn't an elimination tournament. It is supposed to be a participation tournament, just like the postal tourney. If we want a participation tournament, the prize money should reflect that, as it did in 2005.

Title: Re: 2007 WC Prediction Contest Format
Post by Fritzlein on Sep 29^th, 2006, 9:15am

Oh, I didn't see when I posted that you had already put up the rules for the prediction contest. I'm not trying to give away more of your money than you want to donate, just trying to encourage the most interesting contest possible.

For my part, I'd rather the WC first prize be reduced from $500 to $400 with the extra $100 transferred to the prediction contest, and divided among everyone who finishes with a positive score.

What do other people think about the prize money distribution?

Title: Re: 2007 WC Prediction Contest Format
Post by RonWeasley on Sep 29^th, 2006, 9:42am

I think the prediction contest is fun even if there is no money. Trying to finish in the money doesn't have an effect on my risk taking. I'm more interested in relative rank. So count me neutral to any money distribution ideas.

Last year's upsets showed that I didn't learn anything in Divination class. This year I predict the Slytherins will try to put wererabbits into the game. This would be very unfair if it's nighttime in only one of the players' time zones.

Title: Re: 2007 WC Prediction Contest Format
Post by omar on Sep 30^th, 2006, 10:02am

My main reason for avioding a shared prize distributed among the positive finishers was that it became a bit cumbersome to distribute the prizes to everyone :-) There were only about a dozen winners in 2005, but I thought that in the long term this would not work if that number were to increase.

But I agree removing it did have a bit of a negitive impact on the number of people participating to the end of the contest.

I haven't had a chance to think about this to see if there might be a happy medium. Lets discuss it to see what we come up with. But with the formal registration process starting tomorrow, I think we should just keep it as is for this year and incorporate any solution we come up with next year.

Title: Re: 2007 WC Prediction Contest Format
Post by Fritzlein on Sep 30^th, 2006, 11:46am

on 09/30/06 at 10:02:55, omar wrote:

Would it help if you required people who wanted to be eligible for prizes to submit a valid Paypal account when they register to predict? Anyone who doesn't submit a valid Paypal account could still play, just not receive prizes.

If too many people start playing (what a nice problem to have!) you could cut off the prizes to, say, the top 15, and that would at least keep people in the running longer than paying only the top three.

on 09/29/06 at 09:42:38, RonWeasley wrote:

I think the prediction contest is fun even if there is no money. Trying to finish in the money doesn't have an effect on my risk taking. I'm more interested in relative rank.

Ron, if everyone played for relative rank the way you do, it would make for the most interesting contest. But you saw what happened last year... If it wasn't the prize money distribution that made so many people lose interest, it must have been a lassitus curse.

Title: Re: 2007 WC Prediction Contest Format
Post by 99of9 on Oct 1^st, 2006, 9:13pm

on 09/30/06 at 10:02:55, omar wrote:

I haven't had a chance to think about this to see if there might be a happy medium.

One idea would be to give a random participation prize. Choose the recipient randomly, then award them a prize of $N * (recipient_score / overall_winners_score).

You could decide to give as many of these as you thought were manageable.

Since we wouldn't know in advance who would receive them, we would all have an incentive to improve our scores.