Arimaa Forum - Print Page


    
      
        Arimaa Forum
        (http://arimaa.com/arimaa/forum/cgi/YaBB.cgi)
      

        Arimaa >> Events >> 2006 Postal Tournament
        
(Message started by: Fritzlein on Feb 26^th, 2006, 12:05pm)

Title: 2006 Postal Tournament
Post by Fritzlein on Feb 26^th, 2006, 12:05pm

And they're off! Nineteen players, and that's without a bot. It's great to see both a growing community of players and advancing frontiers of Arimaa theory. If I can make some pretournament predictions:

* More people will set up with decentralized elephants than last year.
* More games will finish in some kind of goal race than last year.
* Positions in which a camel holds a horse hostage will replace positions in which a horse is framed as the critical strategic evaluation.
* The dual-lone-elephant opening, dominant 18 months ago, will occur in fewer than 5% of the games. That is to say, in 95% of the games one player or the other will voluntarily cross the midline with a piece other than the elephant by move 15.
* Games in which all four traps are simultaneously contested at some point (i.e. in which no player has complete control of any trap) used to be unheard of. This year at least 10% of the games will have such a position.

Title: Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
Post by jdb on Feb 26^th, 2006, 12:12pm

Some advice:

When analyzing games in the planning window, *close* the game window, to prevent sending a move by accident! When you have decided on your move, reopen the game window.

Title: Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
Post by Fritzlein on Feb 26^th, 2006, 12:25pm

Only 5 of the 95 games are mismatches of more than 400 rating points. The largest rating difference is 480 points between me and JDB, but I'm not expecting that to be the most lopsided of the games; There should be a bunch of closely fought games, just like last year.

Title: Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
Post by frostlad on Feb 26^th, 2006, 2:16pm

jdb I don't know if this is what you are talking about, but I was moving my pieces around in Ryan's game for the opening and right when I hit send my browser refreshed itself to the original configuration so I sent it like that instead accidentally.

So, instead I guess I'll try that opening in Megamau's game. I don't know if it is one of the qwerks from viewing the game window from a linux machine or why it was doing that.

Title: Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
Post by 99of9 on Feb 26^th, 2006, 7:08pm

No frostlad, the bug you just saw is a different issue, but quite a quirky one (it often happens when people send chat comments I think).

Jeff is talking about using the "Plan" button at the side of the game client. This brings up a new game window which allows you to play ahead in the game, and consider opponent responses etc, without actually sending the moves to the real game.

Last year we had some cases where people thought they were fiddling around in the plan window, but were actually operating in the main game window, and sent a substandard move.

Title: Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
Post by Ryan_Cable on Feb 26^th, 2006, 8:26pm

frostlad, I sent an email to omar asking him to please reset the game.

I have never had this happen to me, but it happened to an opponent of mine in the WC. He noticed it before he hit send, but he made a mistake quickly resetting his pieces. He wanted to just continue the game anyway, but by a strange coincidence the server had a hard drive crash about 10 moves in to the game. When the server was fixed a few days later we completely restarted the game.

I don’t know what causes the pieces to reset, but I have only heard of it happening when someone thinks for several minutes about the setup or sends a chat message while setting up. I suggest you try to make up your mind what you want your setup to be (using the plan window if necessary) and then move all of the pieces to those positions at once.

Title: Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
Post by RonWeasley on Feb 27^th, 2006, 1:01pm

frostlad, that sounds like a Slytherin jinx. Harry said he'd protect these games, but he's off snogging Ginny.

Title: Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
Post by purplebaron on Feb 27^th, 2006, 4:05pm

Hey all,

I just signed up to the site and the Postal tournament. (Thank IdahoEv). I just wanted to give a warning to my opponents that I'll be delaying first moves for a few days while I brush up on some strategy.

Title: Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
Post by Fritzlein on Feb 27^th, 2006, 4:45pm

on 02/27/06 at 16:05:02, purplebaron wrote:

I just wanted to give a warning to my opponents that I'll be delaying first moves for a few days while I brush up on some strategy.

That's a great idea. Take some time, play a few bots, do the puzzles on the local Wiki (linked from the lobby), read the Wikipedia article, ask questions, etc. Your reserve time will show up as 20 days, but that's just the limit on each individual move. Actually you have 60 more days of reserve you can mete out to yourself as you get up to speed.

Last year many people found 10 games at a pace of one move per day to be incompatible with real life (except Weasley, who has a time turner). The new time control was intended to allow folks to ignore all their games for a week or two if real life gets busy, but feel free to use the cushion however you like.

The danger in using your whole reserve while other people are moving quickly is that some games will finish before yours really get heated, after which you will still be playing ten at once while your opponents are playing only a few. Still, that beats moving too quickly and getting into a bunch of lost situations before you know what is going on. Last year I was one of the slowest players, and I think I did well in part because I thought about my moves longer than most people. I think I still had eight games ongoing by the time Weasley had finished eight of his, but I didn't mind so much since I had good positions in all of them. :-)

Title: Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
Post by frostlad on Feb 27^th, 2006, 10:10pm

By the way thanks Omar for resetting the game. I appreciate it.

Title: Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
Post by RonWeasley on Feb 28^th, 2006, 11:15am

New players should be aware of the little red number next to the game icon indicating whose move it is. Occasionally this number does not advance! That means if you think it's taking a while for your opponent to move, look in on the game amyway to be sure.

Title: Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
Post by Adanac on Mar 2^nd, 2006, 7:40am

on 02/28/06 at 11:15:07, RonWeasley wrote:

Experienced players should be aware of this too. The clock had been ticking for 3 days for three of my games ::)

Title: Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
Post by omar on Mar 4^th, 2006, 12:29pm

on 03/02/06 at 07:40:53, Adanac wrote:

Experienced players should be aware of this too. The clock had been ticking for 3 days for three of my games ::)

If anyone runs into this, could you let me know before making your move so I can look into.

Title: Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
Post by Fritzlein on Mar 4^th, 2006, 2:47pm

One week in, we've had a chance to see who the real eager beavers are. Summing the move numbers across all games for each person gives:

59 robinson
54 blue22
53 Belbo
46 dtj
44 Ryan_Cable
43 OLTI
42 Adanac
40 fritzlforpresident
40 RonWeasley
39 thorin
29 Fritzlein
29 frostlad
28 jdb
24 omar
22 99of9
22 megamau
12 IdahoEv
8 naveed
4 purplebaron

Rock on, Robinson!

Title: Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
Post by RonWeasley on Mar 4^th, 2006, 7:48pm

I considered sending the following message, regardless of the position, to all my opponents at move 10: I see what you are trying to do and it won't work.

But I'm not really a natural with trash talk. Instead of risking someone taking it badly, I decided to share here.

Title: Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
Post by Fritzlein on Mar 5^th, 2006, 7:45am

on 03/04/06 at 19:48:25, RonWeasley wrote:

I considered sending the following message, regardless of the position, to all my opponents at move 10: I see what you are trying to do and it won't work.

Heh. By move 10 in our game it will be too late. I can see that you will already have a lost position. ;D

(My problem is that I worry about offending people only after I've already sent the trash talk. :-()

Title: Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
Post by IdahoEv on Mar 9^th, 2006, 11:36pm

A quick note to everyone who is waiting on me - apologies, I became buried under demands by a client literally two days after the tournament began. Oh, and four people opened against me with identical moves so I wanted time to study responses.

Anyhow, I'm nearly unburied now, so I should be back at it shortly.

Title: Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
Post by Fritzlein on Mar 12^th, 2006, 1:11am

Two weeks into the tournament there seem to be as many games blazing forward as are lagging behind. The top four leaders in move count are the same as last week, but Ron Weasley made a big jump from ninth to fifth, while Ryan Cable dropped from fifth to twelfth.

107 robinson
100 blue22
97 Belbo
81 dtj
77 RonWeasley
76 omar
70 OLTI
69 Adanac
68 fritzlforpresident
63 99of9
57 thorin
55 Ryan_Cable
54 frostlad
53 Fritzlein
53 megamau
40 jdb
32 naveed
16 IdahoEv
10 purplebaron

The single game furthest along is Robinson vs. RonWeasley at move 22. Robinson is materially ahead by a rabbit, but Ron appears to have more than enough compensation in the form of a horse frame plus a horse hostage.

By the way, thanks, Omar, for fixing the move number to show the move number Gold is about to make, so that it is the same for Gold and Silver. That added almost fifty moves to the totals from last week but the numbers are much more intuitive now, e.g. purplebaron is on move one in every game rather than being on move zero in some.

Title: Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
Post by Fritzlein on Mar 13^th, 2006, 2:04pm

on 02/26/06 at 12:12:41, jdb wrote:

Some advice:

When analyzing games in the planning window, *close* the game window, to prevent sending a move by accident! When you have decided on your move, reopen the game window.

Aaaaaugh! I just sent an accidental move by not following this advice. There goes my good position against RonWeasley. >:( I'm sure he hit me with a Confusticate Curse. Oh, well, at least I didn't hang my camel. Go ahead and run away your horse, Ron, and we'll start over from scratch. :-)

Title: Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
Post by PMertens on Mar 13^th, 2006, 3:24pm

looks like he survived move 10 after all ;)

Title: Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
Post by RonWeasley on Mar 14^th, 2006, 7:49am

Fritzlein, your bad moves are still better than my good moves. Still, be careful of the dog. It might be Sirius Black.

Title: Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
Post by Fritzlein on Mar 14^th, 2006, 10:37am

Omar, I had visited http://arimaa.com/arimaa/tourn/postal/2006/showGames.cgi earlier, before you finished developing it, so I didn't expect it to be so cool when I visited just now. Thanks for doing this along with all the other great server features you do.

IMHO, one small improvement would be to list the score in the order of (wins-losses) instead of order of (wins). Someone who is 1-0 with nine games to go should be ahead of someone who is 2-3 with five games to go. This is just a teeny suggestion for a great page.

Title: Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
Post by omar on Mar 15^th, 2006, 5:59pm

Good idea Karl. I've changed the page. Now it also show the points earned.

Title: Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
Post by Fritzlein on Mar 16^th, 2006, 4:37pm

on 03/15/06 at 17:59:55, omar wrote:

Now it also show the points earned.

Thanks, another excellent idea.

By the way, I forgot to note that the first game finished while nine games hadn't even started! We are down to two and a half days for PurpleBaron to make his opening move in five games, and Naveed in three.

Title: Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
Post by IdahoEv on Mar 17^th, 2006, 5:41pm

I called 'baron at work yesterday to poke him a bit. Apparenlty I caught him at the end of 36-hour-straight work shift, but it seems I managed to prod him into choosing opening positions, anyway.

:-)

Title: Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
Post by Fritzlein on Mar 17^th, 2006, 7:33pm

Excellent. Now only Naveed is in danger of timing out, which is a little weird. Why would one play in seven games but not in the other three?

Title: Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
Post by IdahoEv on Mar 17^th, 2006, 10:49pm

Perhaps his numbers haven't updated in the gameroom, and so he believes he is waiting for the other players?

Title: Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
Post by Fritzlein on Mar 19^th, 2006, 5:09pm

I commented on a game of Naveed's just as an additional reminder 16 hours before the deadline, but it looks like he has timed out anyway against Thorin. That makes a rocky start for Naveed. Meanwhile Thorin is already leading in six of his other games! We could be witnessing the emergence of a new star, folks.

Title: Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
Post by Fritzlein on Mar 22^nd, 2006, 1:54pm

Omar, I see that the page http://arimaa.com/arimaa/tourn/postal/2006/showGames.cgi is updating the standings automatically as the games end, but it apparently couldn't handle Naveed's time loss to Thorin. Can you do something manually to correct the standings? Maybe the unstarted game wasn't saved, so you need to insert a placemarker game into the database for the cgi script to find? Thanks in advance.

[EDIT] I notice that also no rating points changed hands, even though all postal games are rated according to the tournament rules.

Title: Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
Post by omar on Mar 24^th, 2006, 3:34pm

No moves were made in the game and so it did not get recorded in the games database.

I wonder why Naveed never moved in this game. I will check with the players to see if they want me to restore the game and try again.

Title: Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
Post by Fritzlein on Mar 25^th, 2006, 11:15am

Even if there was something to prevent Naveed from moving, I'm not sure what his excuse would be to not mention it for three weeks. I even commented one of his games so he would get an extra reminder, and he didn't respond. It was quite public that everyone had ten games to play, and even who all ten opponents of each player should be. It seems to me that the entry fee to insure commitment was designed to discourage lapses like this, and that a loss plus negative 60 points for ignoring a game is perfectly reasonable.

Title: Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
Post by omar on Mar 27^th, 2006, 10:40am

I checked with the players and they both would like to play out that game. Naveed said the game was at the bottom of the list and he just didn't notice it. Suggested listing the games where a move is needed at the top. I've reset the game.

Title: Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
Post by Fritzlein on Mar 28^th, 2006, 12:02pm

That's great that Thorin wants to play out the game. If he ends the tournament with a huge score (as I'm starting to expect) it will be more impressive if it doesn't include any forfeits.

One potential problem with the restarted game is that it is 28 days behind the other game. That is to say, all the other postal game are guaranteed to finish within 2006, but Naveed vs. Thorin could now extend a full month into 2007. That would defeat the purpose of all the other games having a time cutoff, since the tournament can't end until all the games have ended.

Therefore I propose shortening the game time of the restarted game by 28 days to be in line with the other games, and also reducing Naveed's reserve by 28 days so the same number of moves are assured in that game as in the other games. I don't think 28 days less of reserve is unduly harsh penalty to Naveed for losing on time, and it will preserve the pace of the entire tournament.

Title: Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
Post by frostlad on Mar 30^th, 2006, 4:01pm

I see that the games where it is your move now appear at the top of your page. I like that feature a lot. Thanks Omar!

Title: Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
Post by Fritzlein on Mar 30^th, 2006, 8:50pm

on 03/30/06 at 16:01:04, frostlad wrote:

I see that the games where it is your move now appear at the top of your page. I like that feature a lot. Thanks Omar!

I second that vote: the new feature is way cool. Thanks, Omar. If it isn't too much trouble you could add an additional refinement, so that of the games in which it is your turn to move, the top game is the one in which you will time out the soonest.

Title: Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
Post by naveed on Mar 31^st, 2006, 2:49pm

It's Ok with me to reduce the time of the game.

Title: Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
Post by omar on Apr 1^st, 2006, 5:54pm

I've reduced Naveed's reserve time in the game again thorin by 28 days.

Title: Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
Post by omar on Apr 1^st, 2006, 6:05pm

on 03/30/06 at 20:50:14, Fritzlein wrote:

If it isn't too much trouble you could add an additional refinement, so that of the games in which it is your turn to move, the top game is the one in which you will time out the soonest.

Good suggestion Karl. But this won't be as easy to add becase the gameroom doesn't have access to all the detailed parameters of the game except for the move number. The gameserver would have to post the reserve time info to the gameroom along with the move number in order to do this. But I will try to add this, since it will be very useful when the reserve times start to get low as the games progress.

Title: Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
Post by Fritzlein on Apr 1^st, 2006, 6:30pm

Don't worry if it is too hard to order the game by most urgent move. Isn't there already an automatic e-mail warning for a game in which you only have 24 hours left to move?

I think it's fair to reduce Naveed's reserve time, but just as important: you might want to also reduce the total game time for Naveed vs. Thorin by 28 days, so that the game can't extend into 2007 even if it goes many moves. Right now it appears that it can still go 293 more days.

Title: Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
Post by IdahoEv on Apr 2^nd, 2006, 7:51am

on 04/01/06 at 18:30:02, Fritzlein wrote:

Isn't there already an automatic e-mail warning for a game in which you only have 24 hours left to move?

Speaking of, I remember receiving emails during the first few days of the tournament, notifying me at times when it was my turn. That stopped happening after a while, however; I haven't received an "it's your turn against ...." email in quite a while (and no, not just because I haven't moved in a week; they stopped long before that).

I hadn't though much of it, but I just checked and the email under my username is correct and active. Is there a setting somwhere I might have changed?

Title: Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
Post by PMertens on Apr 2^nd, 2006, 8:20am

Quote:

That stopped happening after a while, however; I haven't received an "it's your turn against ...." email in quite a while

my guess it happend during the server crash and some service got not restarted ...

Title: Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
Post by omar on Apr 2^nd, 2006, 9:59am

Strange; Im still getting the move notification emails.

Title: Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
Post by Fritzlein on Apr 2^nd, 2006, 4:24pm

I haven't missed a single e-mail notification of my turn to move. At times in the past, however, Yahoo has filed mail from arimaa.com in the spam folder until I told it not to.

Title: Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
Post by Fritzlein on Apr 5^th, 2006, 1:29pm

Now that purplebaron has made move 2w in all his games, I can report on the changes in opening theory between the 2005 Postal Torunament and the 2006 Postal Torunament. For the elephant file and rabbits forward I collapsed symmetrical categories so that, for example, someone who started with a single rabbit forward on the h-file is grouped with those who started with a single rabbit forward on the a-file.

For calculating symmetry and balance I treated the elephant and camel as identical. A setup is symmetrical if it can be reflected about the midline without changing. A setup is balanced if each side of the midline has four rabbits, one cat, one dog, one horse, and one camel/elephant.

Elephant File	2005	2006
d	98.1%	79.5%
c		13.7%
b	1.9%	6.3%
a		0.5%
Rabbits Forward	2005	2006
none	14.4%	22.6%
a	2.5%	15.3%
c	3.1%
ah	55.6%	56.3%
cf	23.1%
ag		0.5%
adh		2.6%
abgh	0.6%
acfh	0.6%
adeh		2.6%
Setup Balance	2005	2006
Symmetrical	56.9%	50.5%
Balanced	22.5%	30.0%
Unbalanced	20.6%	19.5%
Gold Move 2w	2005	2006
E up 4	68.8%	26.3%
E up 3 over 1	11.3%	11.6%
E up 3; X up 1	6.3%	41.1%
E up 2; X,Y up 1	3.8%	10.5%
E, X, Y, Z up 1	3.8%	3.2%
Other	6.3%	7.4%

One stunning change I hadn't anticipated: in 2005 more than a quarter of setups had at least one rabbit behind a trap, but zero setups in 2006 did.

Developments I did expect include more decentralized elephants, more one-rabbit-forward setups, and fewer elephant-forward four moves on 2w.

Title: Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
Post by RonWeasley on Apr 5^th, 2006, 1:39pm

Some completed games in the postal summary page list one more move than was actually made. See blue22 vs. robinson, blue22 vs. OLTI, and RonWeasley vs. frostlad. The number is different from that reported in completed games too. This has the effect of giving the loser an extra point, but it's not fair because it doesn't happen everywhere.

This is probably something for Omar's list that will be important as more games are completed. I predict the point standings will be very close among many of us, so this one point error source matters.

Title: Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
Post by 99of9 on Apr 5^th, 2006, 7:37pm

Those figures are really interesting.

One conclusion I get from them is that we have become far less certain of what is best. The majority choice has substantially reduced in popularity in 3 out of 4 categories, and stayed roughly level in the other.

Elephant file: 98.1% (d) --> 79.5% (d)
Rabbits forward: 55.6% (ah) --> 56.3% (ah)
Balance: 56.9% (sym) --> 50.5% (sym)
2w: 68.8% (E4n) --> 41.1% (E3nX1n)

Or maybe we've all decided that the postals are a good time for experimentation.

Title: Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
Post by omar on Apr 6^th, 2006, 12:24am

on 04/05/06 at 13:39:16, RonWeasley wrote:

Thanks for noticing that. I think it's fixed now.

Title: Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
Post by Fritzlein on Apr 6^th, 2006, 12:36am

on 04/05/06 at 19:37:05, 99of9 wrote:

Or maybe we've all decided that the postals are a good time for experimentation.

There was a lot of experimentation last year too. I think your first hypothesis was correct: it's not that we are experimenting more, it's that we are agreeing less.

I'm guessing that in these 95 games, no two had the same position after move 2b. That's astonishing if true. Can anyone think of an easy mechanical way to verfiy this? If not, I'll verify it by hand, because I can then compile a comparable statistic for chess, and use it to trumpet the relative virtue of Arimaa.

Title: Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
Post by Fritzlein on Apr 6^th, 2006, 12:39am

on 04/05/06 at 13:39:16, RonWeasley wrote:

I predict the point standings will be very close among many of us, so this one point error source matters.

Heheh. I think someone just realized he has a pretty good shot of winning the tournament. I looked at your other games, Ron, and I can't see that you are losing to anyone. (except me, of course ;-))

Title: Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
Post by RonWeasley on Apr 6^th, 2006, 8:09am

Quote:

I looked at your other games, Ron, and I can't see that you are losing to anyone. (except me, of course ;) )

Fritzlein, I see what you are trying to do and it won't work. You are such a Slytherin.

Title: Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
Post by Fritzlein on Apr 13^th, 2006, 5:25pm

OK, I finally went through all 95 games by hand in an attempt to verify that they resulted in 95 unique positions after two moves on each side. Note my result is very much subject to error since it was tedious to compile, but I will report it as fact. ;-) It turns out my conjecture wasn't totally correct, as there were only 92 unique positions after 3 moves on each side. The repeats were

Belbo vs. OLTI
jdb vs. OLTI

OLTI vs. blue22
99of9 vs. blue22

Fritzlein vs. RonWeasley
thorin vs. frostlad

All three of these pairs diverged on the next move.

Compare this to the prestigious 2006 Corus chess tournament, a single round robin of 14 players. In those 91 games, there were only 20 unique positions after two moves on each side, with 71 repeats.

Title: Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
Post by IdahoEv on Apr 13^th, 2006, 8:39pm

You don't have very much free time on your hands, do you?

Title: Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
Post by RonWeasley on Apr 18^th, 2006, 12:42pm

I noticed that the payoff for the Postal Tournament is stated as proportional to the points earned, but the proportion is not stated. If we knew the reward formula, we could speculate on how much an extra move is worth to the loser. (Sorry, Fritzlein, to waste your time on something that doesn't concern you!) We could even speculate on how much a winner, who lets his opponent slip in an extra move, takes away from the rest of the field.

If the average game length is about 45, a medium ranked player might expect a 5-5 record and a score of about 525. This is my estimate of the median score. The distribution is less predictable but we have enough players so that it might look like a normal, even with the maximum score of 600 so close. If, for example, the range is 150, a straight proportion giving $0 for a 450 and $40 for a 600 would make a move worth about $0.27. The rest of the field goes down by $0.02. This could have a big effect on how I root for other people's games!

Maybe Omar could give us for info?

Title: Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
Post by Fritzlein on Apr 18^th, 2006, 1:43pm

I'm assuming prize money will be in direct proportion to score just as it was last year, so people who score 450 and 600 respectively will earn prize money in the ratio 3 to 4.

To reduce this to an example of a single game, if we each put $2 in the kitty and I lose to you in 40 moves, then I would win back $1.60, while you would get $2.40, in the ratio 40 to 60.

I estimate that going undefeated this year will be worth a prize of about $24, down from $30 last year, and that extra moves in defeats will be worth about 3.8 cents each. Winning one move faster in a won game contributes to the pool, rather than directly to yourself, but even so it will earn you about 0.2 cents, i.e. about one-eighteenth of the contribution to the pool.

The prize structure this year is truly about committed participation rather than about winning, even more so than last year.

Title: Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
Post by 99of9 on Apr 20^th, 2006, 8:31am

Ryan, just a reminder that you have less than 3 days on the clock for this move in our postal.

Title: Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
Post by Swynndla on Apr 20^th, 2006, 3:51pm

I know that there are emails sent out when it's your turn, but is there a reminder email sent out when you have say 3 days to go to make your turn?

Title: Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
Post by RonWeasley on Apr 20^th, 2006, 4:29pm

I don't think there's any automatic reminder. Concerned players will sometimes e-mail those in danger of timing out, but that's all the help available. My mum said she'd send me a Howler if I let a game go 20 days. Same thing about changing my underwear.

Title: Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
Post by Swynndla on Apr 20^th, 2006, 5:34pm

I think it's best if I change my name to Aragog before I ever play you Ron ... hopefully then you'll run away ;)

Title: Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
Post by frostlad on Apr 24^th, 2006, 11:53pm

I sort of wish that I had started arimaa at least a month or two earlier.
Well actually I wish I had started a lot earlier than that. But, at least wish I had an extra month before I started the postal tournament.

I've made a mistake in over half of my games that is rare for me to make now and was completely common for me a month or two ago.

Oh well there is always next year, and most likely lots of botbashing challenges between now and the next tournament.

Title: Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
Post by Swynndla on Apr 25^th, 2006, 1:45am

I bet that your postals were part of the reason you've improved so much! ... so in that sense it's a good thing you joined when you did, and not when I joined ;)

Title: Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
Post by Fritzlein on Apr 25^th, 2006, 8:06am

on 04/24/06 at 23:53:57, frostlad wrote:

I've made a mistake in over half of my games that is rare for me to make now and was completely common for me a month or two ago.

Probably everyone improves fastest right when they are starting, but I definitely still have this same feeling even now when I make a mistake in a postal game, and if I understand what the mistake was. I don't want to play on in a poor position, I want to start a new game armed with my new knowledge and see what would happen then.

Ah well, postal games require a lot of time and patience, too much by some standards. That's why we can also play blitz! :-)

Title: Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
Post by frostlad on Apr 25^th, 2006, 10:49am

It's alright, I don't mind fighting it out til the end. I think what i've learned best so far isn't the opening game, it is how to fight back after I blunder something away or get into a bad position.
Although most of the opponents that I've had to do that against are bots, humans aren't as forgiving really.

Title: Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
Post by Fritzlein on Apr 25^th, 2006, 11:30am

on 04/13/06 at 20:39:56, IdahoEv wrote:

You don't have very much free time on your hands, do you?

Speaking of spending too much time on Arimaa, I just scanned a bunch of the games to see how everyone is doing, and who is in contention for winning the most games overall. Based on my cursory impressions (I didn't analyze any of the positions to any depth), Omar, despite leading the current standings with a 2-0 record, is in trouble in too many other games to be considered the overall leader.

Instead the leader at the moment is clearly JDB, although he hasn't finished any games. Next come Thorin and Belbo vying for second. Somewhat behind those three, RonWeasley, Adanac, and I are in a bunch.

I can't tell what the heck is going in the game RonWeasley vs. Adanac. Either Adanac is about to break through with a forced goal, or else RonWeasley has a solid material advantage. I split the point between them because it was hurting my brain to think about it. Whoever wins that game jumps up among the leaders, while the other falls behind.

Admittedly, it is still early in the tournament, and there are a lot of unclear positions. For example, 99of9 could still conceivably run the table and win all ten of his games, since he's equal or better in all but one. Purplebaron could still go 0-10 or 10-0, since his games have barely started. There's a ton of play left, but I just wanted to see how things are shaping up so far.

Title: Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
Post by IdahoEv on Apr 25^th, 2006, 6:42pm

on 04/25/06 at 08:06:54, Fritzlein wrote:

I started the tournament when I had only been playing Arimaa for a couple of weeks, and had not yet even figured out how to beat 'zilla.

I look at my postal games now, and in most of them I think "how in hell did I get in a position this bad?"

Then again, I did let jdb barricade my phant just three turns ago, so maybe I haven't learned so much after all. ;-) (I could have sworn I saw a way out of it in the planning window...)

Title: Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
Post by Adanac on Apr 28^th, 2006, 1:47pm

Just an FYI to my opponents: feel free to take your time before your next move ;) I'll be very busy during the 2 weeks and I won't reply to any moves until May 13/14. See you all again in 2 weeks.

Title: Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
Post by frostlad on May 3^rd, 2006, 2:31pm

on 04/05/06 at 13:29:40, Fritzlein wrote:

Elephant File	2005	2006
d	98.1%	79.5%
c		13.7%
b	1.9%	6.3%
a		0.5%
Rabbits Forward	2005	2006
none	14.4%	22.6%
a	2.5%	15.3%
c	3.1%
ah	55.6%	56.3%
cf	23.1%
ag		0.5%
adh		2.6%
abgh	0.6%
acfh	0.6%
adeh		2.6%
Setup Balance	2005	2006
Symmetrical	56.9%	50.5%
Balanced	22.5%	30.0%
Unbalanced	20.6%	19.5%
Gold Move 2w	2005	2006
E up 4	68.8%	26.3%
E up 3 over 1	11.3%	11.6%
E up 3; X up 1	6.3%	41.1%
E up 2; X,Y up 1	3.8%	10.5%
E, X, Y, Z up 1	3.8%	3.2%
Other	6.3%	7.4%

I would definitely not mind seeing the winning percentages in these different categories once the tourney is complete. I know it isn't a big enough data set to really draw conclusions, but at least it is a set of data from some of the higher ranked players and all players are human.

Title: Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
Post by Fritzlein on May 4^th, 2006, 6:55am

on 05/03/06 at 14:31:00, frostlad wrote:

I would definitely not mind seeing the winning percentages in these different categories once the tourney is complete.

One slight problem with this is that many players didn't vary their opening from game to game, so entire categories belong to a single player. For example, all opening positions with four rabbits forward were blue22 playing Gold, and all opening positions with three rabbits forward were blue22 playing Silver.

I remember a span of time when Kasparov was playing the Gruenfeld Defense every game against Karpov. If you were to just look at the results of those games, you might conclude that the Gruenfeld is a mighty fortress, when a more justified conclusion would be that Kasparov is a formidable player.

Title: Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
Post by 99of9 on May 4^th, 2006, 6:51pm

Another problem is that asymmetric setups often beget asymmetric setups in reply. Then the winning percentage will be 50:50 because someone's gotta lose.

Title: Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
Post by chessandgo on May 5^th, 2006, 6:56pm

on 05/04/06 at 18:51:34, 99of9 wrote:

because someone's gotta lose.

hum, that's just because you arimaa players are just a bunch of bloodliking warriors, without showing it as explicitely as go players ! ;) Follow chess players' example, and come back to the good side of the force, where animals of every colors live in peace !

I solemnly beg you to stop slaughtering innocent little beasts ! (and particularly mine please ...)

Title: Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
Post by Fritzlein on May 9^th, 2006, 2:30pm

A few games have tipped in the past couple of weeks, so I thought I'd update the leader board. However, after compiling all the stats, I realized that not much had changed. I should definitely wait a whole month between updates. Anyway, based on the current game states, I have the leaders as

JDB
Thorin
Belbo
Fritzlein
Adanac
99of9

Everyone is losing at least one game (even purplebaron now that he has started moving), so the top score this year might be only nine points, but a lot could still happen given how many games still are even and/or unclear.

Title: Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
Post by Fritzlein on May 9^th, 2006, 2:37pm

For those of you who like to take a peek at interesting goings-on in other game, permit me to direct your attention to Robinson vs. Thorin. Despite heavy engagement, no captures have yet occurred, and none appear likely in the near future.

A quick search of my database found six rated games between humans which ended in goal with neither side making a capture. The longest of these was game 13511, in which Robinson punched through a rabbit against PMertens in 37 moves. http://arimaa.com/arimaa/gameroom/replayFlash.cgi?gid=13511&s=w&client=1

That was a 30-second game, though. I'm curious to see whether Robinson can do it again at postal speeds.

Title: Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
Post by chessandgo on May 9^th, 2006, 6:25pm

Thanks for the tip Fritzl !

Title: Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
Post by chessandgo on May 9^th, 2006, 6:33pm

And nices games from the 3 players ... I guess it's a question of style, the time control doesn't matter.

Title: Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
Post by Fritzlein on May 22^nd, 2006, 11:17am

on 02/26/06 at 12:12:41, jdb wrote:

When analyzing games in the planning window, *close* the game window, to prevent sending a move by accident! When you have decided on your move, reopen the game window.

Arrrgh! How many times am I going to have to make the same mistake before I listen to JDB's advice? I just sent move 39w in my game against Robinson thinking I was in the plan window. What's the good of making mistakes if I never learn from them? I'm a regular Charlie Brown. :(

Title: Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
Post by Fritzlein on May 23^rd, 2006, 10:13am

Now that my game against Blue22 has finished, only 99of9 and purplebaron have no completed games. Maybe the tournament is about half done in terms of total moves played so far versus total moves yet to be played. It terms of total time elapsed, however, we may have a long way to go: 86 days have elapsed versus 214 days more until we reach the cutoff.

Title: Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
Post by Fritzlein on May 29^th, 2006, 1:31pm

Omar, the link to frostlad vs. megamau from the game view of the Postal Tournament appears to be broken. When I click on the board it says "Expired Game".

[EDIT]

Never mind, it is properly linked now. Megamau had lost on time, but the page hadn't updated yet.

Title: Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
Post by Fritzlein on May 29^th, 2006, 2:13pm

After three weeks, I couldn't resist updating the leaderboard. I discovered a way to increase my standing: delay moving in the games I am behind in (Adanac and 99of9) so my score doesn't worsen and move quickly where I am winning, so the position starts to look more clearly won for me. That strategem plus megamau timing out has temporarily vaulted me into first, while jdb and thorin have slipped slightly after starting out hot:

Fritzlein
Belbo
jdb
Adanac
thorin
99of9

99of9 is losing only to Omar, and Adanac is losing only to 99of9, so each of them is better positioned to end on 9 points than I am if they run the table. The other four of us on the leaderboard are each losing two games, so at the moment scoring 9 should tie for first, while 7 points might fall all the way into a tie for sixth. Omar and RonWeasley are high in the standings of completed games at +3 and +2 respectively, but either of them will have a hard time scoring above 6 wins and 4 losses (i.e. +2) total.

Title: Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
Post by 99of9 on May 29^th, 2006, 9:23pm

on 05/29/06 at 14:13:06, Fritzlein wrote:

99of9 is losing only to Omar

I think I'm winning against Omar (or is this just trash talk? ;-)).

On the other hand I think Blue22 is still ahead of me.

I'm glad I've finally made you think hard in our game!

Title: Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
Post by Fritzlein on May 29^th, 2006, 10:09pm

Heheh, I had the colors reversed in your game with Omar, 99of9. I thought you were Silver. It seemed pretty astonishing that you thought you were winning, so checked it out again, and sure enough, Silver is clearly losing.

So that means you are in a good position to win all ten. Nicely done so far! True, lots of your games are still tense and could go either way, but I don't see you in trouble anywhere. Against blue22 I think your extra three rabbits fully compensate you for his extra horse. I scored that one as 50-50.

Title: Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
Post by 99of9 on Jun 13^th, 2006, 3:16am

99of9:
Quote:

I think Blue22 is still ahead of me.

on 05/29/06 at 22:09:50, Fritzlein wrote:

Against blue22 I think your extra three rabbits fully compensate you for his extra horse. I scored that one as 50-50.

I've finally finished a game! And interestingly, this one was the first to finish - mainly because blue22 plays so quickly. It looks like you were right Fritz, those rabbits came in handy!

99of9:
Quote:

I think I'm winning against Omar

I may not have been right about this one either. My unbalanced board at the time has come back to haunt me, and this is currently one of my toughest games to analyse.

Title: Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
Post by Fritzlein on Jun 13^th, 2006, 9:17am

Now everyone in the tournament has finished at least one game. Indeed, everyone finished at least two games before I got a chance to comment that everyone had finished at least one game. :-) No one has finished all ten games yet, although we're getting very close.

I count that 45 of 95 total games have finished, so we're nearly halfway done by that measure. However, I still suspect at least one game will hit the 300-day time limit, in which case we are just over one third done with the tournament running time.

99of9, now that you have demolished blue22 (only two weeks after claiming you were losing :-P), you are definitely winning in all eight of your remaining games, and even in none of them. If we had a betting contest parallel to this tournament, I would have you over 50% to go undefeated.

Title: Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
Post by Fritzlein on Jun 23^rd, 2006, 10:52pm

It's been about four weeks since my last guesstimate of who is winning the postal tournament, so it's time for another update. In a virtual tie for first place are myself, Belbo, and 99of9. Almost a full game behind us, also virtually tied, come Adanac, thorin, and JDB.

I've had the same six on my leaderboard for long time. The other players with the best chance of breaking into the top six are OLTI and frostlad.

99of9 remains the sole player who is losing no games, so even though he has only two wins so far to my five and Belbo's six, 99of9 is a good bet to win the tournament undefeated. The reason he isn't leading yet in my standings is that in several games his advantage is clear but not yet overwhelming, so I can't give him as much credit for those as for a clearly won position.

Title: Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
Post by Fritzlein on Jul 10^th, 2006, 2:21pm

We have passed another milestone in the postal tournament with one player (dtj) now done with all of his games. In my guesswork standings Belbo and jdb have slipped down a bit out of the ties they were in, leaving my current leaderboard:

99of9
Fritzlein
Belbo
thorin
Adanac
jdb
RonWeasley
OLTI

It's possible no one outside these eight will win six games. Thorin is now losing only to Adanac, so thorin has a legitimate shot at second place with nine wins, although he has several unclear positions.

Adanac is the player with the greatest number of unclear games remaining, including his game against me. In our game I've managed to equalize material, but it could get messy now, and I have no idea what will happen next.

Title: Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
Post by RonWeasley on Jul 21^st, 2006, 7:30am

At the time of this posting there are only five undefeated players remaining in the Postal (Owl) Tournement.

Fritzlein
99of9
Belbo
thorin
Adanac

I propose the rest of us refer to these undefeated players as "undies".

It's up to the newer players to change them and give arimaa a fresh set of undies or at least keep their streaks under control.

Title: Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
Post by seanick on Jul 21^st, 2006, 11:28am

Ron, you are a crude individual.

Title: Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
Post by Fritzlein on Jul 26^th, 2006, 8:08pm

Blue22 and fritzlforpresident have finished all of their games, making three players total to have done so.

The standings are really shaking out now. 99of9 is far in front, poised to win 9 or 10. In a virtual tie for second are Fritzlein and Thorin, set to win 8 or 9 each. Adanac and Belbo are knotted up for fourth and fifth, but they won't be for long because their game against each other has broken open. I can't tell who is winning, but it surely isn't even. In a move or two it will be all over bar the shouting.

JDB is still hanging on to sixth, but might now lose two games he was previously winning, and end on only six wins. RonWeasley is guaranteed to end with six wins, and OLTI seems the only other player likely to make it that high. Thus my current leaderboard is:

99of9
Fritzlein/thorin
Belbo/Adanac
jdb
OLTI
RonWeasley

It's too bad frostlad is timing out in all of his games. He looked set to win six not so long ago, but now he may end with only two points. :-( Megamau is on the brink of winning the one game he didn't resign or lose on time.
Adanac still has the greatest number of unclear positions, and thus the greatest range of possible finishing rank.

Title: Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
Post by RonWeasley on Aug 3^rd, 2006, 12:24pm

I am now finished with the Owl Tournament. I believe I am the first to finish with a winning record. Given the strength of my opponents, I am very pleased with a 6-4 result.

Some of you may have noticed an error in my score which should be 573. I should get only 60 points for my 73 move loss to 99of9, not 73. I have a bug report in to Omar. Still, at the beginning I estimated a median score for a mid-ranked player would be 525, five wins and five 45 move losses. Beating that, again considering my opponents, is something I'm happy about. And I get more prize fund! At this point there are several players who may get a better win record but could finish behind me in points, even our five undies. So I'm rooting for quick goals from here on. Note that jdb needs to score 60s on his remaining games to tie me.

This has been a great tournament and Thanx to my opponents and special Thanx to Omar.

Title: Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
Post by Fritzlein on Aug 12^th, 2006, 11:58am

We're down to 13 games between 11 opponents, which makes it easier to update the leaderboard. Adanac's quick win in his previously unclear game with Belbo brought some clarity to the standings:

thorin
99of9
Fritzlein
Adanac
Belbo
jdb
OLTI
RonWeasley

The three unclear games which will impact the standings the most the rest of the way are

Adanac vs. Fritzlein
99of9 vs. Adanac
jdb vs. Belbo

It's still possible that some game will reach the time cutoff this year, but it seems less likely to me than it did a few weeks ago.

Title: Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
Post by RonWeasley on Aug 13^th, 2006, 8:08am

Only four undies remaining. By the end of the tournament, at most, we will be left with only one pair of undies.

Title: Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
Post by 99of9 on Aug 13^th, 2006, 8:18am

on 08/12/06 at 11:58:44, Fritzlein wrote:

The three unclear games which will impact the standings the most the rest of the way are

Adanac vs. Fritzlein
99of9 vs. Adanac
jdb vs. Belbo

I think Adanac vs thorin will be pretty important too!

Thorin - congratulations on almost completing a very impressive tourney.

Title: Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
Post by 99of9 on Aug 13^th, 2006, 8:19am

on 08/13/06 at 08:08:13, RonWeasley wrote:

Only four undies remaining. By the end of the tournament, at most, we will be left with only one pair of undies.

unless there's a drawer ;-)

Title: Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
Post by Fritzlein on Aug 13^th, 2006, 5:39pm

on 08/13/06 at 08:18:26, 99of9 wrote:

I think Adanac vs thorin will be pretty important too!

It's important, to be sure, but is it unclear? Do you not think thorin is clearly losing? I was scoring this as 70% won for Adanac. Maybe I'm a bit too hasty...

Title: Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
Post by Adanac on Aug 13^th, 2006, 8:42pm

on 08/13/06 at 17:39:39, Fritzlein wrote:

It's important, to be sure, but is it unclear? Do you not think thorin is clearly losing? I was scoring this as 70% won for Adanac. Maybe I'm a bit too hasty...

Even I'm not 70% confident about winning the game, although I am happy to be ahead by a rabbit ;)

Title: Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
Post by Fritzlein on Aug 20^th, 2006, 9:34am

Now that I've been soundly spanked by 99of9, only three undies remain: 99of9, thorin, and Adanac.

[EDIT] and then there were two: only 99of9 and thorin...

Title: Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
Post by Fritzlein on Aug 23^rd, 2006, 8:31pm

Well, now that 99of9 has finished off one of the few remaining unclear games by beating Adanac, he is nearly guaranteed to finish undefeated. Therefore, for thorin to share first, he would have to beat Adanac, and that is looking increasingly unlikely.

Only nine games remain, and only jdb vs. Belbo is not lopsided materially. However, OLTI is generating strong goal threats against jdb despite material disadvtage, so that game must also be considered unclear. My latest standings:

99of9
thorin
Fritzlein
Adanac
Belbo
jdb / OLTI
RonWeasley

None of the remaining games appear headed for stalemate, so one way or another we should finish before the tournament time limit is up. It's a relief that the score formula will not enter into consideration. Hopefully it will never figure in a human game, because we will find a better substitute before the need arises.

Title: Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
Post by Fritzlein on Sep 16^th, 2006, 1:37pm

Well, a few more game have finished up, and only four remain. Thorin is still losing to Adanac, but maybe that's one game I shouldn't call yet. The other three seem clear, with OLTI having come back from material deficit to force goal against jdb. Thus the final standings should be:

99of9 10
thorin 9 or 10
Fritzlein 9
Adanac 7 or 8
Belbo 7
OLTI 7
jdb 6
RonWeasley 6
purplebaron 6

Just for fun, compare this to what I said five months ago about the early tournament leaders:

JDB
Thorin
Belbo
RonWeasley
Adanac
Fritzlein

but even then I also said, "99of9 could still conceivably run the table and win all ten of his games, since he's equal or better in all but one."

Kudos to purplebaron for finishing with a positive score despite barely knowing the rules at the start of the tournament. I hope we'll see him more in live games now that he's done with the postal!

Title: Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
Post by Fritzlein on Oct 3^rd, 2006, 10:26pm

And that's all she wrote! Congratulations to 99of9 on a hard-earned perfect score, and undisputed first place. Thanks to everyone who played and pushed the frontiers of Arimaa theory another step forward.

Title: Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
Post by 99of9 on Oct 4^th, 2006, 4:50am

Thanks.

I'll credit some of the success to the surpise value of the EHH setup. It's funny to think that you can surprise people in a postal, but I guess when we'd never seen it played out before, my ideas and plans were still concealed.

But other than that, you're right, it was just a lot of hard work. I often spent multiple sessions studying the same board position. Nevertheless, I still made severe errors - which people happily pounced on (for example blue22 and omar).

It was a fun tournament, thanks to everyone.

Title: Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
Post by Fritzlein on Oct 19^th, 2006, 5:16pm

If my calculations are correct, the "committed play" payouts for the tournament should be

600 $30.94 99of9
589 $30.37 Fritzlein
584 $30.12 Adanac
583 $30.06 Belbo
573 $29.55 RonWeasley
548 $28.26 OLTI
541 $27.90 robinson
525 $27.07 jdb
515 $26.56 omar
486 $25.06 blue22
480 $24.75 thorin
415 $21.40 fritzlforpresident
355 $18.31 Ryan_Cable
297 $15.32 purplebaron
141 $7.27 dtj
137 $7.06 naveed

I note that everyone gets back more than the $20 entry fee, regardless of won/loss record, except people who lost one or more games by timeout or resignation. In other words, the intent to honor commitment was perfectly fulfilled.

I predicted that surviving an extra move would generally be worth about 4 cents, but due to lots of timeouts, it turned out to be worth about 5 cents. I also predicted that going undefeated would be worth a $24 payout, and it turned out to be worth a $30 payout, just like the year before, despite the changed rules. I guess the payout formula this year worked pretty darn well, and I suggest we use it again next year without modification.

Title: Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
Post by Fritzlein on Oct 19^th, 2006, 5:43pm

The average game length of the 64 postal tournament games ending in goal or immobilization was 42 moves. This is a bit longer than the average of 38 moves per game over all HvH games. However, the average for live HvH games when both players are rated over 1700 is 44 moves, and since most of the players in this tourney were rated over 1700, that might in itself explain the slightly longer-than-average games.

I stand by my hypothesis that postal games generally take about as many moves as live games. The increased thinking time doesn't turn every game into a prolonged defensive struggle, as one might expect. On the contrary, it seems that number of moves to finish is inherent in the game more than in the time control.

Title: Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
Post by omar on Oct 21^st, 2006, 11:57am

Thanks for calculating the pay out Karl, but I will double check it before sending out the awards.

Thanks everyone for taking part and making the postal tournament so successful. These games are allowing us to experiment with new setups and strategies in ways we could never do with interactive games. I think we are learning a lot about Arimaa through these games and our interactive games will definitely start to change based on what we learn from these postal games.

Title: Re: 2006 Postal Tournament
Post by omar on Nov 16^th, 2006, 10:57am

I've sent out the winnings for the postal tournament using PayPal. If anyone did not get it please let me know through the Contact form. Thanks again to everyone who played.