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Fritzlein
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Re: Move 12
« Reply #60 on: Aug 29th, 2007, 10:40pm »
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on Aug 29th, 2007, 5:59pm, mdk wrote:
i don't know if this has been edited elsewhere or changed but this part of the analysis tree is riddled with unplayable moves

If you look on my last full post of the analysis tree, I edited yesterday evening to change the a's to h's, so the rabbit pulls should now be legal.
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Re: Move 12
« Reply #61 on: Aug 29th, 2007, 10:48pm »
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on Aug 29th, 2007, 10:13pm, Fritzlein wrote:

Oh, yes, I am learning a ton.  Indeed, the fact that I think I know something is often the biggest obstacle.  For example, when I try to apply my intuitions from games with pure dual-lone-elephant attacks to this game with horses charging forward as well, it seems I usually get the wrong answer.
 
In the line
 12b hh3n Rh2n hh4n Rh3n (pull rabbit twice)
.    13w Eb5s rb6s Eb4e rb5s (pull rabbit twice, blocking off c4)
.    .    13b edd4s md6w mc6w ha6s
.    .    .    14w Db3s Hc3w Ec4n Ec5w  
.    .    .    .    14b cc7w dd8s dd7w xxxx
 
I would look first at 15w rb4e Hb3n rc4e Hb4e.  The camel is unfrozen, true, but it doesn't really have a better place to be.  If it heads back to d6, then the gold elephant can push it to e6 and invite dueling EH attacks.  The critical line  is probably 15b rd4e ed3n Hc4n ed4w, but after 16w Hc5e Hd5e re4s He5s Gold looks fine.
 
In the line
 12b hh3n Rh2n hh4n Rh3n (pull rabbit twice)
.    13w Eb5s rb6s Eb4e rb5s (pull rabbit twice, blocking off c4)
.    .    13b edd4s md6w mc6w ha6s
.    .    .    14w Db3s Hc3w Ec4n Ec5w  
.    .    .    .    14b ed3n Md2n ed4w Md3n.  
 
The gold camel is in danger, but I think this is compensated by its greater ability to access the east.  In some lines it could come into play that we can threaten to take a horse hostage with our camel.  15w De2n De3n Md4s De4s, and Gold has very active pieces.  One point is that now if Gold can frame the silver rabbit, Gold can later pull it to d2, forking and winning it, so just racing and capturing the h-rabbit is less likely to produce an advantage for Silver.  My best guess at how Silver could play for advantage is to attack the exposed camel and dog on d3 and e3, but the timing is very tricky because Gold pieces are threatened as well.  For example Silver could err with 15b ec4e ed4e Md3n dd8s 16w Hb3w rb4s rb3e Ha3s 16b Md4n ee4w Md5n ed4n 17w Eb5e mb6s mb5s Ec5w and Silver has lost a camel and a rabbit for a camel.
 

 
 12b hh3n Rh2n hh4n Rh3n (pull rabbit twice)
.    13w Eb5s rb6s Eb4e rb5s (pull rabbit twice, blocking off c4)
.    .    13b edd4s md6w mc6w ha6s
.    .    .    14w Db3s Hc3w Ec4n Ec5w  
.    .    .    .    14b ed3n Md2n ed4w Md3n
.    .    .    .    .    15w De2n De3n Md4s De4s
.    .    .    .    .    .    15b ec4e ed4e Md3n dd8s
.    .    .    .    .    .    .    16w Hb3w rb4s rb3e Ha3s
.    .    .    .    .    .    .    .    16b Md4n ee4w cc7w mb6w
 
and as far as i can tell silver is guaranteed a camel hostage. so i would say that this 15b isn't a mistake rather a reasonable continuation and that the 16w you propose is a mistake. looking foward to hearing some comments.
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Re: Move 12
« Reply #62 on: Aug 29th, 2007, 11:00pm »
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on Aug 29th, 2007, 10:38pm, Fritzlein wrote:
This isn't the type of position I understand very well, but I will venture a summary of the opposing merits of the double rabbit pull and occupying c4.
 
If Silver pulls the rabbit twice, then chessandgo can pull in response, blocking us from c4, and forcing our elephant to defend from d3 if we want to play for advantage.  This is not a bad square for our elephant, but to make it potent it seems we need to threaten some sort of action with our horse and/or camel on the same wing.  All of mdk's proposed advances allow some sort of counter and complication, to wit:
 
13b ed4s ha6s ha5s ha4s  Charging three with the horse allows our camel to be pushed east in an invitation to dueling EH attacks.
 
13b ed4s ha6s ha5s md6w Trading one horse step for moving our camel west allows the camel to be pulled south, which sort of forces the silver elephant back to c4, releasing the gold camel that was stuck on d2.
 
13b edd4s md6w mc6w ha6s Trading two horse steps for moving our camel west two allows Gold to freeze both at once with his elephant.
 
These lines all got more complex than simple racing rabbit pulls, and I have trouble evaluating them.  Also, there may be yet other good tries for 13b.  All in all, however, I fail to find a way for Silver to force the dream scenario outlined by JDB, where we delay capture of our exposed rabbit while capturing Gold's exposed rabbit for a clear advantage.  Rather it seems Silver's edge is more subtle, and requires that superior piece play to realize.
 
In contrast,  12b ed4w hh3n Rh2n dd8s is less ambitious and less wild.  Placing our elephant on c4 is purely an attempt to temporarily delay capture of our exposed rabbit, not a threat to mount a rescue mission that Gold must guard against if our elephant is on d3.  If our elephant on c4 is eventually pinned to our rabbit on c3, we will surely lose the rabbit when it is dragged to d3 and forked.
 
However, the delay should be long enough to capture chessandgo's rabbit, and perhaps get some play while he is taking the time to finish off ours.  If he doesn't want to accept this slight disadvantage, then he is the one who is forced to seek complications, perhaps to his disadvantage.
 
As you may guess, I favor the calmer move, not because it is necessarily objectively better, but because it doesn't require us to charge forward in order to play for advantage.  This is just a stylistic preference, and those who don't mind mixing it up by advancing pieces behind our exposed rabbit may like the greater tension inherent in pulling twice and eventually putting our elephant on d3.
 

 
well obviously based on all my arguing for the double rabbit pull i respectfully disagree with fritz. i would also suggest that the complex variations that fritz and i have been discussing over the past few days are part of what make the double rabbit pull a better option for us the mob. With all the potential lines that chessandgo has to look at he is more likely to make a mistake and i think that the number of times fritz has had to change his responses to my suggestions shows just how likely this is. it is in lines such as these that we will be able to demonstrate the advantage of having a greater number of people collaborating to examine lines. also, through the detailed analysis that has already been done we have quite a good idea of any complications chessandgo can throw and we have solid responses to all of them. this is more than can be said for any other line.
 
alas we already have charged foward with our horse on one wing and i believe it is chessandgo who has shown how effective charging foward with horses on both wings can be. in any case in none of the lines has it been demonstrated that any of the pieces which "charge" foward are in any real danger of being captured or even hostaged other than of course the rabbit which is inevitable.
« Last Edit: Aug 29th, 2007, 11:27pm by mdk » IP Logged
Fritzlein
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Re: Move 12
« Reply #63 on: Aug 29th, 2007, 11:03pm »
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on Aug 29th, 2007, 5:23pm, mdk wrote:
12b ed4w hh3n Rh2n dd8s (occupy c4, pull rabbit, advance dog)
.    13w Eb5e Ec5e Ed5e md6s
 
this is a very similar position to
12b ed4w hh3n Rh2n ha6n
.    13w Eb5e Ec5e Ed5e md6s
 
perhaps there is some refutation to both of these lines, but no one has offered one yet and until someone does I do not feel comfortable playing either of these moves.

I believe that 13b ec4e Hc3n hh4n Rh3n is playable in either case, and indeed probably to Silver's advantage.  Gold's threatened EH attack is worth less than a whole horse, so Gold probably can't switch wings quite so easily.  This is what I meant in my vague summary that Gold is the one forced to seek complications "perhaps to his disadvantage".  Obviously it is difficult to tell who is winning in any sharp line, and we'll have to vote without the detailed analysis we had for the sharp lines in the double rabbit pull variant, but my gut impression (for what it's worth) is that Gold has no forcing tactical way to hurt us in that line, and indeed may worsen his position by trying to complicate.
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Re: Move 12
« Reply #64 on: Aug 29th, 2007, 11:07pm »
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also why doesnt the ballot include the move 12b ed4w hh3n Rh2n ed4w ha6s which was one of the moves proposed in the thread?
 
im not sure if this is a significant enough option that the balloting should be restarted
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Fritzlein
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Re: Move 12
« Reply #65 on: Aug 29th, 2007, 11:29pm »
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on Aug 29th, 2007, 11:00pm, mdk wrote:
With all the potential lines that chessandgo has to look at he is more likely to make a mistake and i think that the number of times fritz has had to change his responses to my suggestions shows just how likely this is.

And don't forget to mention that you had to change your mind about 13b twice after I eventually refuted your first two suggestions by changing my mind.  We have proved that it is a complicated position, not that Silver has a big advantage, and we have proved that we can also make mistakes.  (Yes, I also made a mistake in 16w in the last line I proposed, and I could easily be totally wrong about my overall evaluation of the double pull.)
 
on Aug 29th, 2007, 5:54pm, mdk wrote:
also i don't have time now but could someone put together an updated analysis tree?

Yes, the one thing you always have time for is arguing for your own line and arguing against other lines.  Meanwhile maintaining a tree and wondering if there is merit in some other branch is someone else's job.
 
on Aug 29th, 2007, 5:09pm, mdk wrote:
Ok ill question your line Fritz... your notation must be wrong as this line isn't even possible!!!!!

I have exhausted myself this move maintaining the analysis tree.  I apologize for all the errors it contains in notation and judgment.  You or anyone is welcome to take over.
 
« Last Edit: Aug 29th, 2007, 11:32pm by Fritzlein » IP Logged

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Re: Move 12
« Reply #66 on: Aug 30th, 2007, 12:03am »
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Sorry, mdk, my frustration bubbled over there.  I could delete the post, but let me instead try to rephrase my frustration more constructively.
 
There are two ways to contribute to the Mob playing well, namely discovering which move is best and advocating for that move so it gets the most votes.  Either by itself is futile.  If you discover the best move and nobody believes you that it is best, the Mob will play an inferior move.  If you fail to discover the best move and advocate for an inferior one, the Mob will be more like to vote incorrectly as well.
 
It has been my perception, perhaps erroneously, that you have been focused on advocacy at the expense of discovery.  It seems that when you even looked at a move other than the double pull, you didn't look to see if that move kicked butt for Silver too, you looked only for a way to prove that the move would hand the advantage to Gold.  Meanwhile when you looked at the double pull, you didn't rack your brain for a way to refute it, only for a way to make it work to Silver's advantage.
 
Maybe this isn't fair to you.  Certainly I sometimes fall into the trap myself, and try to prove what I already believe rather than trying to see how I might be wrong.  However, from all the times I have changed my mind in this thread, I hope it comes through that I am at least trying to be impartial.  When I advocate for or against a move, I hope I have at least tried to see both advantages and disadvantages to that move.  Yet it is difficult to stay in this impartial mode of discussion when I perceive (correctly or not) that you don't share the same aim, and I find myself biased to want to contradict you.
 
Does this sound at all fair to you?  I shouldn't say that I don't want to maintain the analysis tree any more, because actually I enjoyed it.  The less enjoyable part, which has led me to suspend discussing moves to raise issues of process, is feeling that we aren't quite working with the same objective in contributing to the tree.
 
Putting that to one side, I have very much enjoyed your voluminous and insightful contributions of analysis on this move.  I think we go into the voting this time better prepared than on any other move, and this difference has been your participation.  I hope that my candor here doesn't discourage you from participating actively in the future as well, because your analysis has been fantastic.
« Last Edit: Aug 30th, 2007, 12:11am by Fritzlein » IP Logged

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Re: Move 12
« Reply #67 on: Aug 30th, 2007, 12:10am »
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on Aug 29th, 2007, 11:29pm, Fritzlein wrote:

And don't forget to mention that you had to change your mind about 13b twice after I eventually refuted your first two suggestions by changing my mind.  We have proved that it is a complicated position, not that Silver has a big advantage, and we have proved that we can also make mistakes.
 
Yes, the one thing you always have time for is arguing for your own line and arguing against other lines.  Meanwhile maintaining a tree and wondering if there is merit in some other branch is someone else's job.
 
I have exhausted myself this move maintaining the analysis tree.  I apologize for all the errors it contains in notation and judgment.  You or anyone is welcome to take over.
 
I don't claim to know which move is best.  I did make a mistake in 16w in the last line I proposed.  Perhaps I am capable of correcting that and reaching a position in which Silver is not obviously winning.  However I am not capable of getting in the last word, so I'll let it pass, turn in my vote, and go to bed.

 
Fritz I certainly respect your opinion and I understand that we all make mistakes. My goal isn't to try and get the last word in, simply to be able to express my opinion and generate as much discussion as possible. I think we all should be glad that there has been a much higher level of forum activity this move than there has been since the beginning of this game. I am sorry that this is not how you are seeing things.  
 
I would also like to apologize if any of my posts seemed arrogant at any time. Regarding the analysis tree I was not trying to suggest that it was your responsibility Fritz, or anyone elses to put together such a tree. It was a great service to the mob that you put it together in the first place and I hope my post is seen as expressing what a great idea and how helpful the tree was in my analysis and that of others. I was actually working on putting together an updated analysis tree myself this evening when you posted that you had updated the one in your previous post.  
 
And yes I did change my proposed 13b twice because the lines that you were willing to work out with me allowed me to hold a far better understanding of the position than that which I held when I first proposed these moves and I hope you came to understand the position better yourself because of these lines. As I said before we all make mistakes and I am glad that I have been able to learn so much this week from mine. I think I have learned more this week about arimaa than any previous one except for the week when I first joined the site. I only suggest that while we are all prone to making mistakes by having all of us examine a position rather than just one of us, as a group we are far less likely than chessandgo to make a blunder. I think this weeks analysis has shown this as well.  
 
Finally I admit that I have not spent my time analyzing all of the moves equally as perhaps I should. I did, however, spend time looking at all of the moves proposed by the mob. I would like you to remember, however, that before coming to support the double rabbit pull I proposed a move of my own which I came to feel was inferior and so chose to support this one which based on the lines that have been examined and the style of play that I prefer I like best.  
 
Well it is time for me to cast my ballot as well and go to bed. I am sure that whatever decision the mob makes it will be a good one.
« Last Edit: Aug 30th, 2007, 12:14am by mdk » IP Logged
Fritzlein
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Re: Move 12
« Reply #68 on: Aug 30th, 2007, 12:17am »
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Fair enough.  I do recall that you proposed a different move before coming to like the double pull.  Come to think of it, I was the one that proposed the double pull before 99of9 made me suspicious of it.  It is ironic that I would criticize you for advocating your move too forcefully when in fact you were advocating my move!
 
Also it is fair to say that a generally risky position may be more risky to chessandgo than to us, because we can help each other avoid blunders.  Sorry I focused only on the "look how many mistakes Fritz made" part of the sentence.  Objectively it seem reasonable to steer for complications in the hope that they advantage the team over the individual.
 
I see you read and quoted my "get in the last word" comment before I thought the better of it and edited it out.  Let me try to get in the last word after all by apologizing for that.  There is nothing wrong with responding last, in the spirit of helping the team, to whatever analysis someone else has posted.  There's no denying how helpful your analysis has been, whether first, middle, or last.
« Last Edit: Aug 30th, 2007, 12:22am by Fritzlein » IP Logged

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Re: Move 12
« Reply #69 on: Aug 30th, 2007, 12:22am »
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on Aug 30th, 2007, 12:03am, Fritzlein wrote:
Sorry, mdk, my frustration bubbled over there.  I could delete the post, but let me instead try to rephrase my frustration more constructively.
 
There are two ways to contribute to the Mob playing well, namely discovering which move is best and advocating for that move so it gets the most votes.  Either by itself is futile.  If you discover the best move and nobody believes you that it is best, the Mob will play an inferior move.  If you fail to discover the best move and advocate for an inferior one, the Mob will be more like to vote incorrectly as well.
 
It has been my perception, perhaps erroneously, that you have been focused on advocacy at the expense of discovery.  It seems that when you even looked at a move other than the double pull, you didn't look to see if that move kicked butt for Silver too, you looked only for a way to prove that the move would hand the advantage to Gold.  Meanwhile when you looked at the double pull, you didn't rack your brain for a way to refute it, only for a way to make it work to Silver's advantage.
 
Maybe this isn't fair to you.  Certainly I sometimes fall into the trap myself, and try to prove what I already believe rather than trying to see how I might be wrong.  However, from all the times I have changed my mind in this thread, I hope it comes through that I am at least trying to be impartial.  When I advocate for or against a move, I hope I have at least tried to see both advantages and disadvantages to that move.  Yet it is difficult to stay in this impartial mode of discussion when I perceive (correctly or not) that you don't share the same aim, and I find myself biased to want to contradict you.
 
Does this sound at all fair to you?  I shouldn't say that I don't want to maintain the analysis tree any more, because actually I enjoyed it.  The less enjoyable part, which has led me to suspend discussing moves to raise issues of process, is feeling that we aren't quite working with the same objective in contributing to the tree.
 
Putting that to one side, I have very much enjoyed your voluminous and insightful contributions of analysis on this move.  I think we go into the voting this time better prepared than on any other move, and this difference has been your participation.  I hope that my candor here doesn't discourage you from participating actively in the future as well, because your analysis has been fantastic.

 
Well your candor won't discourage me from participating but school starting this coming Wednesday and college applications (to a ridiculous number of schools... 15 at last count) and scholarship applications might.
 
And honestly I find it more interesting when you choose to contradict my lines as no one else in the mob has. It forces me to take a second (or third or fourth) look at them and see if there is a mistake and if not how i need to continue and it benefits the mob as a whole. Again I would say that during the course of the week I have changed my mind about which move to advocate although I guess it isn't quite so apparent in the forum.
« Last Edit: Aug 30th, 2007, 12:28am by mdk » IP Logged
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Re: Move 12
« Reply #70 on: Aug 30th, 2007, 12:39am »
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finally i should mention as i think i forgot to do so that i only was asking for the analysis tree as i thought it would be helpful to the mob if one complete with everything mentioned in the forum was compiled into a single post prior to the voting to help all the mob members make the most informed vote possible. i would have done it myself... and started to as i said previously had i had time at that moment you just beat me to it. perhaps in the future it would be best to put the tree in the wiki so that everyone can easily edit it without making the thread extraordinarily long. of course we would  have to ask chessandgo not to look at the tree in the wiki.
« Last Edit: Aug 30th, 2007, 12:42am by mdk » IP Logged
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Re: Move 12
« Reply #71 on: Aug 30th, 2007, 5:05am »
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Uff... The analysis is so deep that I can only wish C&G would replay to our move with something completely unpredicted.  Wink
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Re: Move 12
« Reply #72 on: Aug 30th, 2007, 11:48am »
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Thank you to those who noticed that I forgot to include the credible ed4w ha3n Ra2n ha6s horse advance.  It got a little bit of analysis and was considered quite playable.  So I'm starting the election over with this move included.  7 voted in the aborted election and the top two moves were at 4-3, so this is a close one.  Sorry about that.
 
Let me state that I think the game tree is very valuable in that one can follow the rationale for liking, or not, various move proposals.  The tree can be reused in future moves if gold chooses one of the analyzed responses.  It seems worth maintaining even though it requires some work.
 
On advocating or discrediting a particular move, I am in favor of both practices.  Either way, the reasoning exposes information about the position and I have benefitted from this discussion.  Disagreeing about a move is makes TheMob more dangerous, hopefully to our opponent.  Thank you for disagreeing!
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Re: Move 12
« Reply #73 on: Aug 30th, 2007, 7:35pm »
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Thanks for putting that one back in Ron... it turned out to be my top vote!  I think the horse advance is marginally better than the defensive dog advance because it starts threatening new things if his elephant were ever to leave, whereas the dog advance is only to protect our camel (which I don't think is in actual danger).
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Re: Move 12
« Reply #74 on: Aug 30th, 2007, 7:51pm »
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on Aug 28th, 2007, 2:16pm, Fritzlein wrote:


12b hh3n Rh2n hh4n Rh3n (pull rabbit twice)
.    13w Eb5s rb6s Eb4e rb5s (pull rabbit twice, blocking off c4)
.    .    13b ha6s ha5s md6w ed4s
.    .    .    14w Db3s rb4s rb3w Hc3w
.    .    .    .    14b hh5n Rh4n hh6w Rh5n
.    .    .    .    .    15w Ec4e Ed4e Ee4n Ee5e


When playing through the double-pull line you guys have done to great depth... this was my continuation.  To me it seems hard for silver to gain the advantage, and if we try, it looks like we might end up in an EMH attack.
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