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   Author  Topic: Move 18  (Read 1767 times)
Soter
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Re: Move 18
« Reply #15 on: Dec 7th, 2007, 7:42am »
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Hi to everyone,
 
Quote:
Let's expect a vote Monday morning

 
 
So, we have the entire weekend to think, and we'll replenish our reserve - great!  I suppose it would be wise to deeply examine the consequences of  chessandgo's hypothetical response (Ed5s Ed4w mb5n Ec4w) to our hc5w hb5w ha5s mc4w. Don't get me wrong - I trust your intuition and experience very much;
I simply think the "ensuing mess" - as Fritzlein called it earlier in this thread - should become Jean's burden, not ours.
 
I'll try to help a bit on Saturday, but can't do it now - my planning window tends to misbehave and I'll have the chance to use a different computer tomorrow.
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Soter
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Re: Move 18
« Reply #16 on: Dec 8th, 2007, 5:37am »
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A few half-baked ideas:
 
1.
 
18b hc5w hb5w ha5s mc4w
19w Ed5s Ed4w mb4n Ec4w
19b hg6e hh6w Rh5n rb8s
 
from here:
 
     1.1
 
     20w Hg3n Hg4n Hg5w De2n
     20b rb7s mb5e mc5e md5e
 
     1.2
      
     20w Hg3n Hg4n Hg5w Eb4e
     (here I have no idea - a dog flip with our horse?
      something else?)
 
 
2. (Fritzlein's main line)
 
18b hc5w hb5w ha5s mc4w
19w Ed5w Ec5w mb4e Eb5s
19b mc4n hg6e hh6w Rh5n
 
from here:
 
     2.1
 
     20w Hg3n Hg4n Hg5w Eb4e
     20b ha4n ha5e mc5e md5e
 
     2.2
      
     20w Hg3n Hg4n Hg5w Eb4n
     (doesn't look good IMHO)
 
 
3.
 
18b hc5w hb5w ha5s mc4w
19w Hg3n Hg4n Hg5w Ed5w  
(slight advantage to us I think but may be wrong)
 
I must admit that after writing this I feel like a complete noob...
« Last Edit: Dec 8th, 2007, 11:48am by Soter » IP Logged
Fritzlein
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Re: Move 18
« Reply #17 on: Dec 9th, 2007, 5:03pm »
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Thanks for extending the tree, Soter.  I have added further to some of your lines.
 
on Dec 8th, 2007, 5:37am, Soter wrote:
18b hc5w hb5w ha5s mc4w
19w Ed5w Ec5w mb4e Eb5s
19b mc4n hg6e hh6w Rh5n
20w Hg3n Hg4n Hg5w Eb4n
     (doesn't look good IMHO)

I'm not sure if you mean that 20w doesn't look like a good move, or our position doesn't look good after 20w.  We could win material with 20b dd7s cc7s mc5e md5e.  Gold could get some compensation for lost material, but in all the lines I played forward we ended up clearly ahead.
 
Quote:
18b hc5w hb5w ha5s mc4w
19w Ed5s Ed4w mb4n Ec4w
19b hg6e hh6w Rh5n rb8s
20w Hg3n Hg4n Hg5w Eb4e
     (here I have no idea - a dog flip with our horse?
 something else?)

Yes, flipping the dog with 20b ha4e Da3n Da4n hb4w looks good for us.
 
Quote:
18b hc5w hb5w ha5s mc4w
19w Hg3n Hg4n Hg5w Ed5w  
(slight advantage to us I think but may be wrong)

This actually seems hardest to refute, but maybe the positional answer of 19b mb4n ha4e Da3n mb5n retains our advantage.
 
Quote:
I must admit that after writing this I feel like a complete noob...

Actually your analysis is very useful.  It suggests that if chessandgo charges with his g3 horse, the exposed horse is too great a liability to him, which means he might not be able to complicate the position to his advantage.  Maybe he will just have to accept the capture of his rabbit after 18b hc5w hb5w ha5s mc4w.
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Fritzlein
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Re: Move 18
« Reply #18 on: Dec 9th, 2007, 5:13pm »
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on Dec 6th, 2007, 3:52pm, 99of9 wrote:
hg6e hh6w Rh5n mc4w

I'm not keen on winning a rabbit if we have to give up a camel hostage in the process.  It's true that the hostage would be less than ideal for Gold, but it would be compensation for the rabbit that we might not otherwise have to give.
« Last Edit: Dec 9th, 2007, 5:19pm by Fritzlein » IP Logged

Fritzlein
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Re: Move 18
« Reply #19 on: Dec 9th, 2007, 5:30pm »
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on Dec 6th, 2007, 5:03pm, UruramTururam wrote:
My first thought: 18b  hg6e hh6w Rh5n dd7s

I am worried that in this line chessandgo can just let us take the threatened rabbit, while drumming up counterplay by flipping our horse.  Our camel would be lonelier in the west, and therefore more likely to be taken hostage, but Gold also can threaten the flipped horse in f3, possibly forcing us to abandon the c3 rabbit.
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Fritzlein
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Re: Move 18
« Reply #20 on: Dec 9th, 2007, 5:45pm »
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on Dec 6th, 2007, 7:09am, arimaa_master wrote:
18b cc7s dd7w hc5w ce7w

This doesn't look bad for us, but appears to be a clear loss of time if chessandgo pushes our camel to d4.   We would have to try to rotate it back to the west, and meanwhile we're not even threatening his rabbit.
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Fritzlein
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Re: Move 18
« Reply #21 on: Dec 9th, 2007, 5:59pm »
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on Dec 6th, 2007, 3:52pm, 99of9 wrote:
What about a rabbit pull right now?
Something like
hg6e hh6w Rh5n hc5w

It seems that if chessandgo pushes our camel east with something like 19w Ed5w mc4e Ec5s De2n, he gets enough counterplay to let his rabbit be captured, since he can then force us to abandon the c3 rabbit.  I'm not sure about this, but we are clearly in worse shape than in the lines where we wait a turn to pull the h-rabbit.
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Fritzlein
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Re: Move 18
« Reply #22 on: Dec 9th, 2007, 6:18pm »
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OK, playing a bit with the suggested moves makes me think this is an easy choice after all.  It appears that 18b hc5w hb5w ha5s mc4w is so strong that before long chessandgo will have to give up his h5-rabbit while ours remains merely framed, i.e. we are getting nearer to achieving our strategic objective of the last four moves.
 
The decision is easier because all the proposed alternatives allow chessandgo to at least gain time, if not force a rabbit trade to equalize outright.  We have to be patient for one more move, or we'll be throwing away our hard-won advantage.
 
Incidentally, after having analyzed both with and without Bomb on this move, I conclude that the bot's brain-dead suggestions were a waste of time.  If Bomb would have a function for us this move, it would be double-checking some of the sharp lines where chessandgo advances the g3-horse, but I expect Bomb would only confirm the conclusion that the advance is unsound.  I won't bother to do this check, as I would rather have a fellow human look at those lines anyway.
 
18b hc5w hb5w ha5s mc4w
.    19w Ed5w Ec5w mb4e Eb5s
.    .    19b mc4n hg6e hh6w Rh5n
.    .    .    20w Hg3n Hg4n Hg5w Eb4e
.    .    .    .    20b ha4n ha5e mc5e md5e (-+)
.    .    .    20w Hg3n Hg4n Hg5w Eb4n
.    .    .    .    20b dd7s cc7s mc5e md5e
.    .    .    .    .    21w Eb5e Ec5e me5s Ed5e
.    .    .    .    .    .    21b ed3e rc3x me4e Hf5n Hf6x mf4n
.    .    .    .    .    .    .    22w Ee5w Ed5e dd6s cc6x Rf1w
.    .    .    .    .    .    .    .    22b hg6s Rh6w Rg6w Rf6x hg5n
.    .    .    .    .    .    .    .    .    23w dd5w Ee5w dc5n dc6x Ed5w
.    .    .    .    .    .    .    .    .    .    23b mf5s mf4s mf3n Cf2n Cf3x (=+)
.    .    .    .    .    21w De2n Cf2n Cf3n Hf5e
.    .    .    .    .    .    21b cc6s me5e ce7s ce6s (-+)
.    19w Ed5s Ed4w mb5n Ec4w
.    .    19b hg6e hh6w Rh5n rb8s  
.    .    .    20w Hg3n Hg4n Hg5w De2n
.    .    .    .    20b rb7s mb5e mc5e md5e
.    .    .    .    .    21w Cf2n Cf3n Hf5e Eb4e
.    .    .    .    .    .    21b hg6w Rh6w hf6s Rg6w Rf6x (-+)
.    .    .    20w Hg3n Hg4n Hg5w Eb4e
.    .    .    .    20b ha4e Da3n Da4n hb4w (=+)
.    19w Hg3n Hg4n Hg5w Ed5w
.    .    19b mb4n ha4e Da3n mb5n (=+)
18b cc7s dd7w hc5w ce7w
.    19w Ed5w mc4e Ec5s Hb3n
.    .    19b md4n md5w hb5w mc5w
.    .    .    20w Da3e Hb4w Ec4w Ra1n (=+)
18b hc5w hg6e hh6w Rh5n
.    19w Ed5w mc4e Ec5s De2n
.    .    19b md4e me4n me5n rh8s
.    .    .    20w Ec4e Ed4e Ee4n Da3s
.    .    .    .    20b hg6s Rh6w Rg6w Rf6x hg5n
.    .    .    .    .    21w Ee5w me6s me5s Ed5e (=)
.    .    19b hg6w Rh6w hf6s Rg6w Rf6x
.    .    .    20w md4e Ec4e Ed4n Ed5e (=)
18b hg6e hh6w Rh5n mc4w
.    19w Ed5s Ed4w mb4w Ec4w
.    .    19b hg6s Rh6w Rg6w Rf6x hg5n
.    .    .    20w rc3n Hb3e rc4e Hc3n (=)
18b hg6e hh6w Rh5n dd7s
.    19w Ed5s hc5e hd5e Ed4n
.    .    19b mc4w mb4e Hb3n rc3w
.    .    .    20w Ed5w mc4s Ec5s Ra1n (+=)
.    .    19b hg6s Rh6w Rg6w Rf6x hg5n
.    .    .    20w he5s Ed5e he4s Ee5s (+=)
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Re: Move 18
« Reply #23 on: Dec 12th, 2007, 7:10am »
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Mob rule picks hc5w hb5w ha5s mc4w by a comfortable majority.  I got busy Tueday afternoon and didn't get the chance to stop the vote until Wednesday morning.  Somewhere in that time the number of votes went from 8 to 10, reinforcing my perception that some of the mobsters like to vote at the end of the election period.  These are not to be confused with lurkers who are on the voter list but do not vote.  I'll let the Department of Mysteries try to understand this.  I just count the votes.  Thanx to those who voted!
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Fritzlein
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Re: Move 18
« Reply #24 on: Dec 12th, 2007, 9:08am »
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For the record:
 
    .    .    .    .    .    .    .    .    .    .    1. 2. 3. 4. 5.
1. hc5w hb5w ha5s mc4w (h->a4, m->b4)  .    .    .     -  7  7  7  8
2. hc5w hg6e hh6w Rh5n (h->b5, pull rabbit) .    .     3  -  3  6  5
3. hg6e hh6w Rh5n mc4w (m->b4, pull rabbit) .    .     3  2  -  6  4
4. hg6e hh6w Rh5n dd7s (d->d6, pull rabbit) .    .     3  2  2  -  5
5. cc7s dd7w hc5w ce7w (h->b5, shift small animals w)  2  3  4  3  -

 
This is indeed a comfortable majority, but with 3 dissenting votes I'm glad we decided with a formal election rather than with a voice vote.  I'm also glad that Mobsters are thinking for themselves and not taking my analysis tree as gospel.
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