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Fritzlein
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15g
« Reply #30 on: Jun 1st, 2010, 7:02am »
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15g
The obvious choice for the Mob is to take my camel hostage now, pushing it to g2 rather than h3 in order to keep their dog unfrozen.  Since they can't activate either eastern piece, their other two steps might well advance their horse to b6 to start the diagonally opposite swarm.  I believe, however, that I could answer 15g EMvHa^> with 15s H5>vCc<Rcv.  My horses seem to keep the east stable enough that I can use two western steps to build a phalanx on b7.  Slowing down the Mob's attack in the west would give me a chance to further consolidate the east on later turns.
 
I have a hunch that the Mob will try to gain time by not securing the camel hostage for yet one more turn.  The move 15s Ha^>^Ra2^ is a much more forcing move in the fight for control of the c6-trap, because I can't keep the horse out of c7.  None of my responses are terribly convincing.  I hesitate to predict a rather obscure move, but the Mob has already repeatedly shown a willingness to delay securing the camel hostage, so I wouldn't be too surprised by a sharp attack here.  My hostage camel isn't going anywhere, so I will in fact predict that the Mob will be enticed by the value of occupying b7.
 
One must also always consider the various possible ways for the Mob's camel to cross over, but I don't expect any of those, since all the ones I have examined make my position easier to play.
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« Reply #31 on: Jun 1st, 2010, 7:02am »
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15s
The Mob sidestepped my prediction in favor of the more obvious move of 15g EMvHa^>, which can hardly be called a mistake, but which does allow my obvious reply of 15s H5>vCc<Rcv.  Two steps in the east seem to keep the Mob’s eastern horse and dog contained, leaving two steps in the west to keep the Mob’s western horse from jumping behind my traps.  I expect my two western steps to pay large dividends in the number of steps the Mob is delayed from a western goal threat, which in turn will give me time to solidify my eastern swarm.
 
I don’t really believe that my eastern swarm will succeed fast enough or well enough to free my elephant to rule the rest of the board, but it is my only viable plan, so I will pursue it without further ado and regain some reserve time for trickier tactics later.  It is now up to the Mob to play forcefully and keep the pressure on me.  We’ll see what they come up with.
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« Reply #32 on: Jun 1st, 2010, 7:02am »
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The Mob has a sizable strategic advantage due to holding my camel hostage, but I am not out of options as long as I retain control of the f6 trap.  The Mob surely would love to gain piece activity in the east using some combination of dog, horse, and camel, but I just don’t see how.  For example the break 16g Da<DC<D^ seems to just get the Mob in hot water after 16s Hf>CfvH^R5v 17g Hf^Hc<H^ 17s R5<<vv or 17g Hf^Hc>H^ 17s E>>HgD^.  Also if the Mob brings its camel east, the camel seems to become a target for my elephant more than it helps free up the Mob’s position.
 
It seems therefore that the Mob will just have to accept that it can’t hold back my eastern swarm, and must instead play for faster action in the west.  A tempting move would be 16g Ra2^^^^, to shore up its horse and start on a goal threat.  I don’t really like the move, though, because it commits a rabbit while the Mob is not yet sure whether to play for goal or for capture.
 
I will instead predict 16g CHg<HCv.  I could hardly save my cat, and would instead have to continue swarming with 16s CgvRf7>vvv, and let the chips fall where they may.  
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« Reply #33 on: Jun 1st, 2010, 7:03am »
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16s
The Mob flipped out my cat with its horse, which makes this move the fourth out of sixteen that I have predicted correctly.  The down side of my correct prediction is that the Mob has again played a move that I think is good, but the silver lining is that my situation is at least no worse than I thought before.
 
I am surprised only because the Mob took over nine and a half days to make their move, draining their reserve to seven and a half days.  The Mob has managed its time very wisely so far, and I don't expect them to get into time trouble while holding a positional advantage, but this past move seems like a poor time to dawdle in making an obvious choice.  Do they perhaps think their position is less favorable than I think it is?  Whatever the case, I will intentionally hold my move until Friday, because sometimes in the past when I have moved on Friday the Mob has seemed to get a slower start on their analysis.  It might not help me to try this little trick to increase the time pressure on the Mob, but it at least won't hurt me.
 
For the sake of due diligence, I looked at threatening the Mob's horse in the c6-trap, hoping to get a favorable exchange of horses.  However, my fourth step can't cover both a6 and c5 against the Mob's cat.  If 16s E<^^Ra7v then 17g Cb>^M> and if 16s E<^^Ddv then 17g Cb<^^Hb^.  Either way I am in trouble.
 
I really shouldn't expect any western tactics to succeed while I have not yet hemmed in the Mob's elephant in the east.  The only reasonable-looking move is the one that I anticipated making when I analyzed last time, namely 16s CgvRf7>vvv.  I can't see far enough ahead to know how well this move will work, but it is my only viable strategy, so I have to stick with it even if the Mob's plan turns out to be better and faster than mine.
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« Reply #34 on: Jun 1st, 2010, 7:03am »
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17g
The Mob has to be careful here.  If the Mob immediately threatens my cat with capture in the c3-trap with some careless move, it can backfire horrendously.  For example 17g Cb<HbCvRa2^ permits 17s E<CbvME<.  Unfortunately the many eyeballs of the Mob (including computer analysis) will never permit such a tactical blunder.  My only hope is to make up ground strategically, which is a slender hope when my camel is held hostage.
 
I think I played the best available move on 16s, but the sad fact is that it allows the Mob to flip my cat to h3 with 17g CE<EC>.  The cat flip threatens once again to mobilize the Mob's dog.  For me to re-establish the partial blockade with my next four steps would require me to commit a dog to the blockade, which I simply can't afford in this position because I am already stretched thin.  But to complete the partial blockade with my f8-rabbit requires five steps.  If I wanted to keep the Mob's dog hemmed in, I could only use three steps on 17s to get my rabbit from f8 to g6, and would then have to try to find the time for the other two rabbit-advancing steps on a later move.
 
One could argue against the cat flip as merely inviting me to swarm further, and I admit that it would glue the Mob's elephant even more firmly in place, but I believe nevertheless that the time gain of nearly two steps is of critical tactical importance to the Mob.  In the absence of the cat flip, my elephant has already palpably gained in mobility, which constrains the Mob's ability to act in the west.  If this were a purely strategic decision, I might expect the Mob to blunder, but due to the tactical importance, I fully expect the Mob to make the cat flip.
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« Reply #35 on: Jun 1st, 2010, 7:04am »
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17s
The Mob took twelve days to move, reducing their reserve to two and a half days.  I have a hard time accounting for the delay given the strength of their position.  Perhaps they had a tie vote and needed to re-vote.  Perhaps they delayed, not because they had trouble finding any good move, but because they found several good moves and couldn't choose between them.
 
I predicted on move 12s that the Mob would never be in time trouble again for the rest of the game.  Like most of my predictions so far in this game, events have proven me wrong.  Probably I am also wrong that moving on a Friday has anything to do with making it difficult for the Mob to move within seven days, but since it seemed to correlate last move, I will move on Friday again this time, just in case.  Since my reserve is nearly full, I won't consider moving in two days, but rather will take my time to move in nine or sixteen.
 
The Mob's move of 17g Cb>Rb^^^ is one I did not consider at all, although it is reminiscent of the rabbit charge I predicted for 14g.  The idea is presumably to get closer to directly threatening goal.  However, it looks awkward in combination with the cat flip from 16g, because the charging rabbit is in the way of capturing the flipped cat, while the flipped cat is in the way of the charging rabbit.  Why not advance the a-rabbit instead of the b-rabbit, for a relatively faster attack?  Perhaps they were looking ahead to mobilizing their buried d1-dog, but if their plan is that slow, I might well have time to complete the smother and mobilize my own elephant.
 
Strategically, I would like to complete the lockdown of the gold elephant with the move 17s RHe>Devv.  Then the Mob could no longer flip my g4-cat, and its camel would have a more tortuous path toward regaining control of the f3-trap.  On the other hand I'm a bit worried about 18g Cc^^CR>, gaining control of the c6-trap.
 
Perhaps I had better play the defensive 17s RbvRa8>Dd<Rf8v.  With my f-rabbit one step forward, I could re-establish the elephant smother in one turn after a cat flip.  If the Mob's goal threat has been slowed down enough, I might be able threaten a capture in c6 or f6.
 
I am leery of any tactical try such as 17s EC^>.  With many eyeballs as well as multiple computers on their side, the Mob is not likely to have played something which allows me a horse trade.  However, for the sake of due diligence, I must consider sharp moves as well as quiet ones.  If I manage to come back in this game there will necessarily be fireworks at some point; failing to be on the lookout for the critical timing is tantamount to resignation.
...  
After further examination, it is clear to me that my position is still too weak to try to force trades, and too weak to try to flip the Mob's c4-cat towards the f6-trap for a potential capture.  I need to solidify the smother of the Mob's elephant before I can think about trying to win or even exchange material.
 
If I could only get a piece into the f3-trap, my elephant's range would go up dramatically.  Unfortunately, I can't afford to let the Mob's cat get into c7.  Therefore the only blockading move I can consider is 17s De<vRHe>.  If that turns out to be too loose, then I still have the solid 17s RbvRa8>Dd<Rf8v.  Although I have narrowed it down to just these two moves in time for a Friday move after nine days, I think I will delay another week to be quite confident that I am choosing the better one, because it is quite a divergence between the two.
...
I underestimated the amount by which a vacation last weekend would cramp my schedule.  Now it is twenty-three days into my move and I still haven't had time for the deep analysis that I wanted to do.  Therefore, absent a solid justification, I am going to go with my gut feeling and play 17s RbvRa8>Dd<Rf8v.
 
My take on the position, from intuition rather than extensive analysis, is that I would love to occupy the f3-trap, but it would be an ambitious move declaring that I think my position is superior and I am now playing for the win again.  Deep down I don't believe my position is that strong.  I expect that loosening up will make it more likely for the Mob to find strong moves, as opposed to the mediocre moves they have been finding since they took my camel hostage.  If I keep it tight and strategic, perhaps they will continue to waste time and let my position improve some more.  This is a frail hope, but it seems like a better hope than going for the jugular immediately.
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« Reply #36 on: Jun 1st, 2010, 7:04am »
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18g
The Mob can no longer flip my cat to h4 for a time gain, because I can use my f7-rabbit to restore the blockade in four steps.  Also it is pointless for the Mob to go after my western cat with 18g Rb<^HbCv, because I could capture their cat with 18s EC^CD<*.  More reasonable would be mobilizing their western dog up the b-file, although that looks rather slow.
 
The most forcing plan I see for the Mob is undermining my b7-phalanx with Hb<RH>.  The best fourth step is not obvious to me.  Rb< looks reasonable, despite being an admission that they should have advanced the a-rabbit instead of the b-rabbit in the first place.  From a broader perspective, however, the time is rapidly approaching when the Mob will need to occupy the f3 trap themselves in order to prevent me from occupying it, so I will predict Hf^ for their final step.
 
My main plan for some time now has been to hope for mistakes from the Mob.  Now my hope is compounded by the Mob's low reserve.  I hope that first they can't agree on a move for nine days, and only then they make a mistake.  Unfortunately for me, the Mob discussion started immediately after I moved, in contrast to their move 17s, so they will probably move quickly.
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« Reply #37 on: Jun 1st, 2010, 7:05am »
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18s
The Mob moved in a mere four days and six hours, building their reserve back over five days.  My theory that a Friday moves puts on the pressure is busted.  Or is it?
 
Their move 18g Hb<RH>Dc< used the first three steps to undermine my b7 phalanx as predicted, but the fourth step went towards painstaking activation of their western dog instead of occupying the f3 trap.  I think perhaps the fourth step is another inaccuracy, because now when I play out lines from the board position, I am no longer losing all of them.  The position is about to explode into fireworks, but it seems that I can give almost as good as I get when the shooting starts.
 
I was tempted to immediately start the hot war with 18s DcvE^^<.  That would win the Mob's western horse because only their camel can come to the rescue, and the rescue attempt would cost them their camel.  This seems very promising, because a horse trade relieves my position somewhat.  Admittedly, with only one horse I can't easily keep the Mob's eastern horse bottled up, but on the other hand, the Mob's slowly materializing goal threat in the west would be stalled, and I would regain temporary control of the c6-trap, which is worth the trade in most circumstances.
 
Unfortunately, the Mob could respond with 19g M>HM^Re2^, threatening one of my horses in each of their home traps.  I would not be able to save both horses and my camel; at best I could get MH for MHC.  So it is too soon for me to pull the trigger just yet.
 
Since the Mob generously left me the f3-square, I intend to occupy it with He>.  That makes it harder to split my horses, and leaves the Mob's camel further from a capture threat.  This buys me time to undertake something tactical next move.  Also the step Dcv seems mandatory.  I must protect the c6-trap somehow, and that move is one of the four steps I was planning anyway to retake control.  I need to keep the Mob's c4-cat out of the fight for c6.
 
My last two steps are trickier.  I want my e6-dog to either help out with defending the c6-trap or with swarming the f3-trap, but when I play out tactical lines, the dog is actually in my elephant's way on d5, d6, or e4.  For now it seems that moving Dev to e5 is indirectly helpful in future lines without being in the way.
 
That leaves me one step for which I have almost no use.  My one piece which can perhaps improve its position and help in the critical areas is my f7-rabbit.  Once I have occupied f3, I no longer need to worry about my cat being flipped.  If I play Rf<, perhaps it will be of some help either around c6 or f3 where the action is hot.
 
Thus my full move is 18s He>DcvDevRf<.  I realize that I am completely abandoning the defense of my f6-trap thereby.  I wish I didn't have to take this gamble, but I need all sixteen of my pieces for the two fights that are underway on opposite wings.  If the Mob breaks through with any piece, I will have to try to capture it in f6 immediately with my elephant.  Too bad.  My position requires me to go for broke, because if I just sit on my hands the Mob will activate its western dog, generate a western goal threat, and force my position apart at the seams.
 
Still, despite my camel hostage and despite multiple positional weaknesses, my hope is slowly reviving.  It seems that the Mob's slight inaccuracies are giving me something to fight with.  Probably when push comes to shove they will still get the better of me, both because they have the better position and because they are better tactically due to many eyeballs and computer assistance.  However, it is nice to perceive my options gradually widening, where I am no longer on the thinnest razor's edge.  Suddenly I am eager to see what the Mob comes up with next.
 
By the way, this move is the fifth in a row on which I haven't moved my elephant.
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« Reply #38 on: Jun 1st, 2010, 7:18am »
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19g
I will not be too surprised if the Mob wants to get its horse to c7 with either 19g HRb<HRc^ or 19g HRb<HRc> or  19g HRb<HRcv.  According to my calculations, however, all of them let me trade the Mob's western horse for my c3-horse.  If they go for one of these lines, it will probably be due to disagreeing with me strategically rather than tactically.  Perhaps they will feel that it couldn't have been right to break up my phalanx if they didn't intend to charge through it, but that is sloppy reasoning.  In fact the phalanx needed to be broken anyway for their long-range goal threats, to keep up the time pressure on me.  Perhaps instead they will think a horse trade is favorable to them.  If so, one of us will be wrong in the kind of judgment call that separates good strategy from bad.
 
If the Mob wants to avoid a horse trade, their options are limited.  Their strategy of activating their western dog would help if they had five steps instead of four, but after 19g Dc<^^Rb< 19sE^^<Dev, they just get a horse trade, and a less favorable one than they otherwise might get.  Furthermore, their western horse can't retreat without jeopardizing their western cat, which honestly looks a little silly on c4 at the moment.  
 
They might be tempted to get their camel closer to my f4-horse, so that my elephant has less time to wander on a western tactical venture.  I don't see, however, how they could do this without jeopardizing the camel itself.  If they try to help with little pieces, e.g. 19g M>Re2^^M>, my dog can play cleanup with 19s RDe^E>.  It is convenient that all of the would-be helpers of the Mob's camel are cats and rabbits, which my central dogs can threaten.  If I miraculously come back to win, the Mob may want to kick its western dog for being useless on the first rank at such a critical time.
 
The only strong move I can find for the Mob is 19g Rb<^HbCv.  Note that this isn't a direct threat to my cat, because even if I passed they couldn't take my cat without losing their own.  No, the intent is to prevent a horse trade while intensifying the long-range goal threat.  Better late then never.  Then I can't diddle, because the Mob's threats of activating their western dog and furthering their rabbit advance in a corner where I have no piece defense are both entirely serious.
 
If they play this move (or a better one I have overlooked) I will have to say I am still somewhat getting the worst of it, but even then don't expect me to go down quietly!
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« Reply #39 on: Jun 1st, 2010, 7:18am »
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19s
The Mob moved even faster this time: just three days and nine hours.  That is barely time for a formal vote.  Perhaps someone suggested 19g HRb<HRc^, which was agreed to by acclamation after too little analysis?  I had considered this move and was not afraid of it.  The Mob played something I thought would favor me, as if they had played too quickly.  So why am I not rejoicing?
 
I suppose that I can't quite believe I have calculated the tactics correctly.  The bare fact that the Mob has played a move I thought they couldn't or shouldn't play makes me question my earlier confidence.  It's like the old poker saying: "If a stranger offers to bet you a thousand dollars he can make the jack of spades jump out of the deck and spit in your eye, don't bet, or you'll get an eyeful of spit."  Here the Mob has offered to let its horse be captured, so I have a gut fear that capturing it must be bad.
...
My re-analysis of 19s Rc<E^^< confirms what I had thought before.  The Mob can't prevent me from taking their western horse, so the only question is how much they can get for it.  They have several plausible moves, and I don't have one answer that works for all of them.  It seems, however, that in each case there is at least one move I can play that lets me limit my eastern losses to a horse and leaves me with a playable position, which is not bad considering I am down by a camel hostage.  I have seen nothing to change my rational assessment that the Mob's offer of a horse trade was an inaccuracy by them.
 
Emotionally, I am still worried.  There are too many variations for me to believe that I have looked at all the important ones, and the position is so sharp that a very small oversight could completely wreck my position.  The Mob has many strong players and diverse computer help.  If I had more reserve time, I might feel compelled to examine the position more, looking for the tactical flaw in my plans.
 
What ultimately tips my decision in favor of moving now is that I have essentially no choice strategically.  If going after the Mob's free horse on this move loses quickly, then so be it, because anything else loses slowly.  As soon as their horse gets free behind my traps, their camel can become fearless in the center.  Eventually my elephant would have to hunt down the invading horse in much worse circumstances than I have at present.  If I lose control of the f6-trap now, my position is strategically hopeless anyway, so there is no point in allowing such a position to arise and hoping for something good to happen later.  I must act now, for better or for worse.
 
Geronimo!
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« Reply #40 on: Jun 1st, 2010, 7:20am »
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20g
The Mob of course can't save its threatened horse with 20g Cc>M^MD>, because 20s ME>^ would cost them their camel.  They must threaten to knock out my f4-horse with their camel.  Unfortunately, they have many promising ways to do that.
 
It seems most forcing for the Mob to use three steps bringing their camel all the way to e4, with a fourth step of either Re2^ or Cc> to support the camel.  Either move threatens to capture both of my horses on the same turn.  However, after the rabbit step, I can actually afford to allow the double-horse capture, because 20g M>>^Re2^ 20s HE>*E^^ 21g MH^^** 21s E>> leaves me clearly ahead.
 
I therefore predict 20g M>>^Cc>, whereupon I plan to respond 20s HE>*E^H3<, allowing either of my horses to be taken.  Neither horse capture looks very good for the Mob, so perhaps they will try to play for a delayed capture of both of my horses with 21g MHe< and two more steps.  It gets messy after that, probably to my disadvantage, but I still don't see what I could have done one 19s other than what I did do.
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« Reply #41 on: Jun 1st, 2010, 7:20am »
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The Mob moved in a week exactly, playing 20g M>>Cd^^.  When I saw that the Mob decided to leave their camel on e3 instead of moving it all the way to e4, my spirits leapt.  Is it possible that the Mob, with so many participants and such computer help, has made a tactical blunder?  20s DevRevvDc> appears to create chances for me to win a horse without losing one.
 
Even if the tactical lines fail to bear out my hope, though, I can certainly play a safe move like 20s HE>*EvDd^, in which case we appear to have a horse trade without complications that favor the Mob, which means I have achieved my strategic objective without falling into a tactical snare.  Is it too soon for me to start thinking again about winning?  I must start analyzing immediately, because this coming weekend will be busy for me.
...
Well, it didn't take much analysis to dash my hopes.  The Mob's d4-cat is indeed in their way, and helps me build a phalanx with 20s DevRevvDc>, but after 21g HM<v the same cat prevents my dogs from unfreezing my d3-horse.  I should have known the Mob would never slip tactically and lose material in the short run.
 
And in other lines, too, the d4-cat is a major thorn in my side.  I would much rather get my elephant back to e3 than to f4, but that cat clogs up the middle so that I always seem to get to e3 one step too late.  For example, 20s HE>*E>Ddv 21g MD^HMvHf3* 21s Ra6vvDe<Ev 22g Ccv<Dgc< and I must lose a cat because the Mob's cat on d4 costs my elephant a step in getting to e3.   It will be a major loss of time for me to have to defend from f4 instead.  It is looking rather like the Mob's 20g was in fact brilliant.
 
In fact, I don't see a better plan than admitting their cat advance was so good I have nothing better to do than push back that cat with my elephant.  I feel compelled to play 20s HE>*EvDdv, expecting 21g MD^HMvHf3* 21s Ra6vvECdv, when my goal threat tactically buys me time to get my elephant to e3, but too late because 22g Ccv<H^^ activates the Mob's horse before I get there.  Sigh.
 
Oh, well, I guess my inaccuracy was on 18s, when thought I was leaving my eastern dog out of the way of my elephant, but it turned out to be in the way after all.  My evaluation of the position has swung back to thinking I am materially even but strategically busted, just like I was several moves ago.  I tip my hat to the Mob as I play the least bad choice I can find.
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21g
« Reply #42 on: Jun 1st, 2010, 7:21am »
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21g
The ambitious move by the Mob would be 21g MD^MH^Hf3*, trying for immediate material win, but then 21s De^E>vH< seems to liquidate into an even-material endgame.  I should be so lucky.
 
Playing to threaten each horse in a different trap is even more futile.  21g HM<< 21s CDe^EvHd> leaves the Mob struggling not to lose material.
 
No, the correct move of 21g MD^HMvHf3* is unfortunately both obvious and strong.  I am depressingly sure of making a correct prediction this time around.  It seems that 21s Ra6vvECdv will prevent me from losing material, but the Mob's next move 22g Ccv<H^^ is also one they surely won't miss.  I'll get to have two correct predictions in a row, and both sides will have fuller reserves, but I will have depleted hopes.
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« Reply #43 on: Jun 1st, 2010, 7:21am »
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21s
The Mob needed only 36 hours to play my predicted move of 21g MD^HMvHf3*.  I wish there were a good way for me to deviate from my planned move 21s Ra6vvECdv, but a quick double check shows nothing promising.  I must accept that I misjudged the timing of the horse trade, and landed in a worse position that I expected.  So sad.
 
The only thing I will salvage from the wreckage is some reserve time by moving quickly.
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« Reply #44 on: Jun 1st, 2010, 7:22am »
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22g
The Mob must defend my goal-in-one threat, and it seems that they might as well safety their c4-cat at the same time by moving it south.  Two purposes met with one step, leaving three steps for the east.
 
I do not, however, see three good steps for the Mob.  22g CcvDgC< H^ blocks my elephant from e3, but also lifts the threat to my camel, so I can play 22s Cf^De^H^E>.
 
The Mob could try to win a cat without blocking their camel threat, with 22g CcvDgC<Dc<, but I think then 22s ECd<EM> doesn't allow either the Mob's camel or its dog to take cat.
 
I expect instead 22g Ccv<H^^, activating the Mob's horse at long last, and giving them a strong position after my forced ECd<EM>.
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