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half_integer
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Re: 2015 Move 12g
« Reply #15 on: Dec 22nd, 2015, 5:56pm »
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The last three posts have been in support of the horse frame as the best move, and I don't think any of the other posts have shown a great outcome for any other move.  Therefore, should we conduct a voice vote for this move?  It could allow us to gain reserve, and also puts the clock back on lightvector during the holiday (when the Mob may be preoccupied anyway).
 
Additional search for silver replies to this move could be fruitful.  I just looked for some and all I came up with is something like 12s Mc5 Dd7 Hd6 to not bury the horse as much.  But silver didn't want to leave the camel on c5 last move so he probably won't want to do it here either.  He could also try to start a goal attack in the east, but he doesn't have any strong pieces and we could block the h-file with a single step.
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Re: 2015 Move 12g
« Reply #16 on: Dec 23rd, 2015, 12:23am »
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+1
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Lion
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Re: 2015 Move 12g
« Reply #17 on: Dec 23rd, 2015, 1:39am »
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Yes, let's put this up for a vote.
 
I think the only real alternative to the horse frame is the horse pull, but we probably just lose a rabbit in this case. I'm thinking of something like this:
 
12g. Mb5s hb6s Mb4s hb5s
12s. mc6w mb6s Ha6e hb4w
13g. Mb3n ha4s Mb4w Dd2n
13s. rh6s rh5s Hb6e Hc6x mb5n
14g. ha3e Ma4s hb3e hc3x Ma3e
14s. Rg5w hg4n df6w Rf5n Rf6x
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Hufflepup
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Re: 2015 Move 12g
« Reply #18 on: Dec 23rd, 2015, 2:47am »
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I also think we should put this up for an early vote.
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deep_blue
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Re: 2015 Move 12g
« Reply #19 on: Dec 23rd, 2015, 5:46am »
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I am about to go to sleep (haven't had some for like 2 days now Undecided) so I won't read the whole discussion. But since there seemed to be consensus on a voice vote I can quickly start one.
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clyring
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Re: 2015 Move 12g
« Reply #20 on: Dec 23rd, 2015, 9:26am »
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---Analysis tree---
 
- precedes a silver move. > precedes a gold move. Pardon any SM notation errors, and my lack of evaluations on many lines.
 
f4w g4ws e4e/::Hf3 (1)
- c7e b7e b6n c6w/Cd7 Rc7 Hb7 Mb6 (1a)
- > b5e a5e g5e dd2n/Mc5 ab5 gh6 Dd3 (1a.1)
- > - d3nww (f3x) f6w/Ec4 (Hx) Dfe6 (1a.1a)
- > - > c5eee g3n/Mf5 Hg4
- > - d3nnw (f3x) f6w/Ed5 (Hx) Dfe6 (1a.1b, NEW)
- > - > //Prevents an f6 attack a little more effectively.
- > f4nwww/Ec5 oo (1a.2)
- > - f6ss g5w h6s/Df4:R h5 (1a.2a, NEW)
- > - > //Threatening e3n e2n f2w f3s/Ee4:D Hf2:C, but it's surprisingly hard for silver to actually threaten captures in f3. We should definitely take time while pondering to try to better evaluate this type of position, if we play the horse frame.
- c6s d7n b6ee/Mc5 Ddd7 Hd6 (1b)
- > //I don't think this is very threatening.
 
b5s a5e a6s */Mb4 ab5 Ha5 * (2) -=  
- //This seems to covert to a rabbit pulling game, where we are behind.
 
b5ss b6ss/Mb3::Hb4 (3)
- c6ws a6e b4w/Mb5:H Ha4
- > b3nw a4s d2n/Ma4:Ha3 Dd3
- > //Probably there is a better 13g available, but like Lion I don't think we can avoid material loss or get more than small compensation.
- > - b6e b5n h6ss/Mb6:Hx h4
- > - > a4se a3x/Mb3:Hx
- > - > - g5wnx g4n f6w/(Hg5 De6)::Rx
 
b5e b6ss c5w/::Hb4 (-1)
- e3nww c6w/Ec4 Mb6 -/+
- > //We seem to be in tactical trouble due to the threat of c4ns b5e b6s/Ec4:Mc5 Mb6
 
b5e b6s a6e */Mc5:H Hb6 * (-2)
- //Loses big material.
- d3wnn c7e/Ed5 Cd7
 
b5sw b6ss/Ma4::Hb4 (-3, NEW)
- c6ws a6e e3w/Mb5:H Ed3
- > //Our life seems pretty rough here tactically.
 
So far of the discussed options, the horse frame seems very likely best. I add my voice to the voting chorus.
« Last Edit: Dec 23rd, 2015, 9:31am by clyring » IP Logged



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Re: 2015 Move 12g
« Reply #21 on: Dec 23rd, 2015, 12:56pm »
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So, I think we agree that we are tactically fine initially after the frame.  But, both the frame and the hostage are persistent and hard to break and free, respectively.  Silver may definitely want to hold off on giving up the framed horse to force the issue around c6, and it's not clear to me whether we can afford to leave c5 with the camel, as that may allow the silver horse to become very strong in the southwest.
 
The other place to improve is around f3 in the east.  We would need to bring additional forces from the west, and it's not clear whether we can really achieve anything, although silver may not be able to just clog the area with rabbits, as that might allow elephant rotation if we can get our horse to g4.
 
In any case, in order to follow up the frame on 12g with a move including Mc5 on 13g, we need to have a long-term improvement strategy.
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Re: 2015 Move 12g
« Reply #22 on: Dec 23rd, 2015, 1:56pm »
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on Dec 23rd, 2015, 1:39am, Lion wrote:
Yes, let's put this up for a vote.
 
I think the only real alternative to the horse frame is the horse pull, but we probably just lose a rabbit in this case. I'm thinking of something like this:
 
12g. Mb5s hb6s Mb4s hb5s
12s. mc6w mb6s Ha6e hb4w
13g. Mb3n ha4s Mb4w Dd2n
13s. rh6s rh5s Hb6e Hc6x mb5n
14g. ha3e Ma4s hb3e hc3x Ma3e
14s. Rg5w hg4n df6w Rf5n Rf6x

I don't see why Gold can't play the more obvious 13g Mb3w Ma3e ha4s xxxx here, after which the given 13s looks like a bad idea, as instead of recapturing immediately, Gold could frame the horse first (with a goal threat).
 
I'm not quite sold on the appeal of the horse frame as it's not clear what Gold's strategy afterward should be. Not only can Silver slowly activate his horse to become the strongest free piece (as long as the frame stays in place), the camel being on c5 and then possibly only being able to escape through the center is a dangerous proposition no matter how you slice it. It's not that far-fetched to imagine Silver abandoning the framed horse at the right moment after having congested the center, not only winning back the horse but also taking the camel hostage in the center.
« Last Edit: Dec 23rd, 2015, 3:12pm by aaaa » IP Logged
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Re: 2015 Move 12g
« Reply #23 on: Dec 23rd, 2015, 6:52pm »
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What about simple 12g E to c5?
 
For instance:
12g Ef4n Ef5w Ee5w Ed5w
12s Rg5w hg4n df6w Rf5n Rf6x
13g Ec5s mc6s hb6e Mb5n
 
and Gold seems to be fine.
 
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Re: 2015 Move 12g
« Reply #24 on: Dec 23rd, 2015, 6:56pm »
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After 1a.1 I think we also need to beware of  
  13s Rb5w mb6s hb7s rc7w / M:Ra5 Hb6 Rb7
since this allows silver to get the camel for the framed horse, with 14s Ec4 or Ed5 if we don't respond.  Even
  14g Ef4wwww / Eb4 doesn't help:
  14s Hf3n Ee3nww / Hf4 Ec4
  15g Eb4s mb5s Ra5e Mc5e / Eb3:M Rb5 Md5
  15s Rb5e mb4n Rc5nx ec4n / M:Rc5 E:Rc6x
 
I'm not yet sure how we avoid or respond to this line.  The camel can leave after 13s but then silver can reestablish the hostage.  I'm not sure who benefits from this back-and-forth.
 
A wild idea I just considered would be to not defend the hostaged horse at c6 but bring the camel east and plan to rotate out the elephant next move.  Could a (somewhat) free elephant be worth a whole horse (and rabbit)?
 
If we go the more expected route, I think we clearly need to figure out how to flood the c6 trap with small pieces to free our camel, before silver can set up a horse-for-camel trade and abandon f3.
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Re: 2015 Move 12g
« Reply #25 on: Dec 23rd, 2015, 7:11pm »
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Maybe instead of figuring out how to avoid a camel-for-horse trade we should look further ahead to set up more compensation.  If we can do something like Ee5:D with our rabbit still at g5 then we can get camel-for-(horse and dog).  Even if silver can avoid risking the dog, Ee6 with the g-file horse advance could possibly provide positional compensation.
« Last Edit: Dec 23rd, 2015, 7:11pm by half_integer » IP Logged
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Re: 2015 Move 12g
« Reply #26 on: Dec 24th, 2015, 3:03am »
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It does seem like any 13g with Mc5 might be close to refuted now.  If silver can force us to address threats while also activating the horse, we are probably behind.
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Re: 2015 Move 12g
« Reply #27 on: Dec 24th, 2015, 8:06am »
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on Dec 23rd, 2015, 1:56pm, aaaa wrote:

I don't see why Gold can't play the more obvious 13g Mb3w Ma3e ha4s xxxx here, after which the given 13s looks like a bad idea, as instead of recapturing immediately, Gold could frame the horse first (with a goal threat).

 
Won't silver respond 13s rh6s rh5s Rg5w hg4n, winning the rabbit soon thereafter?
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Lion
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Re: 2015 Move 12g
« Reply #28 on: Dec 24th, 2015, 8:16am »
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on Dec 23rd, 2015, 6:52pm, arimaa_master wrote:
What about simple 12g E to c5?
 
For instance:
12g Ef4n Ef5w Ee5w Ed5w
12s Rg5w hg4n df6w Rf5n Rf6x
13g Ec5s mc6s hb6e Mb5n
 
and Gold seems to be fine.
 

 
Gold is just down a rabbit in this line, or am I missing something?
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clyring
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Re: 2015 Move 12g
« Reply #29 on: Dec 24th, 2015, 10:01am »
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on Dec 23rd, 2015, 1:56pm, aaaa wrote:

I don't see why Gold can't play the more obvious [3a] 13g Mb3w Ma3e ha4s xxxx here, after which the given 13s looks like a bad idea, as instead of recapturing immediately, Gold could frame the horse first (with a goal threat).

Yeah, looks like I did an un-tactic. The line still feels dangerous to me; I'll have to look at it some more later.
 
on Dec 23rd, 2015, 6:52pm, arimaa_master wrote:
What about simple 12g E to c5?
 
For instance:
12g Ef4n Ef5w Ee5w Ed5w
12s Rg5w hg4n df6w Rf5n Rf6x
13g Ec5s mc6s hb6e Mb5n
 
and Gold seems to be fine.

 
We have some compensation, but I guess 13s c5eee e3n/Mf5 Ee4 is incoming with an eastern counterattack to follow. Is it enough? And like the 13g Ec5 line considered above, f6ss g5w h6s/Df4:R h5 is another possible answer, now threatening to take g3 with a goal-in-one threat. Maybe playable, but I definitely want to see a lot of discussion before we make a move like this one.
 
on Dec 23rd, 2015, 6:56pm, half_integer wrote:
After 1a.1 I think we also need to beware of  
  13s Rb5w mb6s hb7s rc7w / M:Ra5 Hb6 Rb7
since this allows silver to get the camel for the framed horse, with 14s Ec4 or Ed5 if we don't respond.  Even
  14g Ef4wwww / Eb4 doesn't help:
  14s Hf3n Ee3nww / Hf4 Ec4
  15g Eb4s mb5s Ra5e Mc5e / Eb3:M Rb5 Md5
  15s Rb5e mb4n Rc5nx ec4n / M:Rc5 E:Rc6x
 
I'm not yet sure how we avoid or respond to this line.  The camel can leave after 13s but then silver can reestablish the hostage.  I'm not sure who benefits from this back-and-forth.
 
A wild idea I just considered would be to not defend the hostaged horse at c6 but bring the camel east and plan to rotate out the elephant next move.  Could a (somewhat) free elephant be worth a whole horse (and rabbit)?
 
If we go the more expected route, I think we clearly need to figure out how to flood the c6 trap with small pieces to free our camel, before silver can set up a horse-for-camel trade and abandon f3.

Yeah, when silver stops threatening anything on 13s, my first instinct is to immediately bring the camel east with [1a.1] 13s b5w b6s b7s c7w/Mb5:Ra5 Hb6 cb7 14g c5eee a2n/Mf5 a3 14s b6en b5n d6e/Hc7 Mb6 De6 15g e4wwn f5s/Ed5 Mf4 15s b6sn a6x/Mb6::Hx 16g d5wwe b6s/Ec5:M, which looks okay for us.
 
Another 12g idea that occurred to me and deserves some serious consideration is 12g g4ww f4ns/Ef4:He4.
 
My confidence in the frame as the best move has eroded somewhat. Maybe I was distracted by the thought of getting some of that juicy reserve back... :salivate:
« Last Edit: Dec 24th, 2015, 10:23am by clyring » IP Logged



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