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   Author  Topic: 2015 Move 13g  (Read 2971 times)
SilverMitt
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Re: 2015 Move 13g
« Reply #15 on: Jan 3rd, 2016, 4:13am »
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I suppose we can fold Mc5:Dd5 into the same ideas as all the Mc5+ab5 lines, if 13s Dd6 De5 Mb5 is good enough.
 
Now, the camel on c5 just feels incredibly vulnerable to me, and it is silver who gets to decide how to engage tactically and has several great options to choose from; most lines with 14g Eb4 would seem to be answered well enough by 14s Hf4 Ec4.
 
Meanwhile, I am still more or less of the same opinion on 13g Ec5, and think we're probably losing a rabbit, unless silver can actually get even more.  But if we are committing to using the elephant to free the hostage, then our camel can't make it back in time to support f3 after 13s Hf4 E:Hh3.  After 13g Ec5 13s Hf4 E:Hh3, perhaps we have just enough time to stall at f3 to make progress around c6 after something like 14g Mb4 De3 Cf3 f2 (note that this is already using 3 steps just to get one more around c6).  Meanwhile, after 13g Ed5 gh5 13s Hf4 E:Hh3, we probably have to give up a cat in a similar line.
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half_integer
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Re: 2015 Move 13g
« Reply #16 on: Jan 3rd, 2016, 7:14pm »
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I know it is not rational, that move 12g is a "sunk cost"; however, making an elephant move now seems like changing strategies mid-stream (to mangle a metaphor).  If the elephant should be at c6, why did we not see that last move and make it so?  Perhaps this IS the better move and we simply made a mistake, but I hope not.
 
Forcing silver to sacrifice the horse to go after material still feels like we're getting a better deal.  Even a camel-for-horse trade is perhaps less than losing a single rabbit, if we can also free the hostage and save the rabbit.  (If we can keep a fight requiring the silver elephant in the west, then our g-file horse will be free to defend the rabbit and be strongest piece in the east.)
 
If we take the elephant west then we are fighting for control and slight advantage while defending two traps.  Personally I feel better fighting sharp strategically than tactically (and sharp seems weaker evaluating after trades).
 
I may be right or I may be wrong, but let's discuss.
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SilverMitt
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Re: 2015 Move 13g
« Reply #17 on: Jan 4th, 2016, 1:10am »
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Silver buried the horse in order to take our horse hostage, and the last move to frame the horse does make it more difficult for silver to replace our horse on g3 with their own.  If we could imagine surviving the assault on f3 after 13g Ed5 gh5, then I'd love to try it.  But if we're losing at least a cat in that line, we shouldn't waste a step to save the rabbit.
 
Meanwhile, the camel on c5 seemed okay to me on the assumption that the silver camel had to stay on b6.  Since it can come to b5, I consider that likely unplayable for us, as I don't see how we can free the horse hostage even with a camel-for-horse exchange.
« Last Edit: Jan 4th, 2016, 1:10am by SilverMitt » IP Logged
Hufflepup
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Re: 2015 Move 13g
« Reply #18 on: Jan 5th, 2016, 3:19am »
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Looking further at 13g: Ef4w Ee4w Ed4n Rg5e I don't think we can play it as 13s: hf3n rg6s rg5s rg4e is too strong.
 
Our advanced rabbit can't make a counter goal threat without bringing the elephant back across, which will just cause us to go down a horse. We don't have time to go after the camel as:
14g: Ed5w Mb5s Mb4s rg1e
14s: hf4e df6s df5s rh4s
15g: Ec5w Eb5e mb6s Rh1n
15s: ee3e ef3w Hg3w hg4s
16g: df4n Hf3n Rf1e Rc1e
16s: ee3n ee4s Hf4w df5s
 
Leaves silver with a strong attack in the east and no way we can avoid going down on material in the near future (At least one cat, possibly more).
 
Even if we concentrated on defence on the east from 14g:
14g: Ed5w Rg1e Rh1n Rh2n
14s: hf4e df6s df5s rf8e
15g: Rc1e Rd1e Rb1e Rc1e
15s: ee3e ef3w Hg3w hg4s
 
The only way to avoid an immediate loss of the horse is to push the dog north, at which point we have no way to avoid losing it in f6 unless we bring the elephant across and sacrifice the hostaged horse in the east. We also have to worry about silver getting an advanced rabbit to h2. We can't make a counter threat to the camel as silver has enough time to take the eastern horse before protecting the camel.
 
By contrast if we maintain the frame we only go down a rabbit, and we would have the initative  after the horse exchange.
 
What do we do if the vote remains tied after the next vote? I would be OK with deep_blue breaking the tie to avoid using too much reserve voting again.
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deep_blue
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Re: 2015 Move 13g
« Reply #19 on: Jan 5th, 2016, 3:36am »
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I don't feel comfortable breaking the tie myself. I think I'll set up another vote (with probably all moves though some of them shouldn't matter) and only if that again ends in a tie I would break the tie myself (since then it would seem we indeed wouldn't get anywhere otherwise).
But first we need more precise analysis since I feel we are on the verge of falling apart.
Hufflepup, I think I mainly agree with your lines (though I am not 100% convinced) but what was the alternative you were thinking of? You said keep the frame so Mb5e Ra5e? That doesn't look too great either and as long as we don't have a valid alternative to the Ed5 Rh5...
As for 13g Ec5, wouldn't similar lines be good for silver (I haven't looked at the details though...)?
EDIT:
An exact same line wouldn't work well and while the lines still look fishy I don't see how exactly we lose. But more analysis is needed there.
« Last Edit: Jan 5th, 2016, 4:26am by deep_blue » IP Logged
Hufflepup
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Re: 2015 Move 13g
« Reply #20 on: Jan 5th, 2016, 12:13pm »
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Quote:
Hufflepup, I think I mainly agree with your lines (though I am not 100% convinced) but what was the alternative you were thinking of? You said keep the frame so Mb5e Ra5e? That doesn't look too great either and as long as we don't have a valid alternative to the Ed5 Rh5

 
I agree that it doesn't look great as we will probably go down a rabbit, however I can't see any moves which avoid this loss without avoiding an either bigger loss. I think this move is a case of minimising our losses so we can fight back better later. I can't see any better alternative than Mb5e Ra5e Rg5e x for this.
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SilverMitt
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Re: 2015 Move 13g
« Reply #21 on: Jan 5th, 2016, 12:25pm »
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I don't actually like either 13s or 14s in that line, but it is a way to attack f3 while keeping the elephant centralized.  Our main way of keeping our horse from being replaced on g3 would be to spend a step to play Cf3, and then, if flipped out, 2 more steps for Df3, hopefully buying enough time to threaten the camel.  There doesn't seem to be as great of a difference between 13g Ec5 and 13g Ed5 gh5 after this 13s, but I see our position as playable in both cases.
 
Bottom line to me is that if we were to play Mc5+ab5, we would just wind up losing time move after move before eventually having to bring the elephant west, anyway, or allowing a camel-for-horse exchange while silver keeps the horse hostage.  So, we should not waste time in freeing the hostage.
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Hufflepup
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Re: 2015 Move 13g
« Reply #22 on: Jan 5th, 2016, 4:20pm »
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Quote:
I don't actually like either 13s or 14s in that line, but it is a way to attack f3 while keeping the elephant centralized.  Our main way of keeping our horse from being replaced on g3 would be to spend a step to play Cf3, and then, if flipped out, 2 more steps for Df3, hopefully buying enough time to threaten the camel.  There doesn't seem to be as great of a difference between 13g Ec5 and 13g Ed5 gh5 after this 13s, but I see our position as playable in both cases.

 
Wouldn't this cost us the cat?
 
Quote:
Bottom line to me is that if we were to play Mc5+ab5, we would just wind up losing time move after move before eventually having to bring the elephant west, anyway, or allowing a camel-for-horse exchange while silver keeps the horse hostage.  So, we should not waste time in freeing the hostage.

 
Why would we lose the camel. It doesn't look to hard to retreat.
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SilverMitt
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Re: 2015 Move 13g
« Reply #23 on: Jan 5th, 2016, 9:22pm »
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on Jan 5th, 2016, 4:20pm, Hufflepup wrote:
Wouldn't this cost us the cat?

The cat could be worth the potential camel hostage, if silver takes the time to capture it.  It's better than allowing the silver horse on g3.  But that's why I'd rather give up the rabbit with 13g Ec5.
 
Quote:
Why would we lose the camel. It doesn't look to hard to retreat.

If we retreat the camel, we lose time.  It has to stay around c5 because the horse remains a hostage even when not immediately threatened with capture.  If it comes to c4, we also need a piece to stay on d4 to keep it from being pushed back.
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mattj256
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Re: 2015 Move 13g
« Reply #24 on: Jan 6th, 2016, 12:08pm »
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Hi all.
I'm having trouble keeping track of all the suggested moves and countermoves - are there any good tools to view and comment on move trees?
 
I'm probably the lowest-rated person here so take what I say with a grain of salt...
 
My first thought is that our f3 frame isn't that useful - we're using an E+H+xxx to trap an E+H.  Unless we have a plan to rotate out the E, the frame is of questionable value.
 
If passing were a legal move and we passed, what would Sharp do?  
First choice: 13s Mc5:Hc6
Second choice: 13s rh6s rg6e df6e X (forcing Gold to abandon the frame or lose a rabbit)
 
Have we considered this? 13g Ef4 : Df5 Mb5e
This way if silver abandons the frame we're threatening to win a HD for M, or we're threatening to save the M and win a H outright.  It's more noncommittal than I would like; I don't see any way to make good strong threats in this position, and I'd say gold is on the defensive here.
 
Do we have a plan to rotate the E out of the frame?
 
Edit: I didn't realize that the poll had already started and deep_blue had already selected the moves.
« Last Edit: Jan 6th, 2016, 12:30pm by mattj256 » IP Logged
half_integer
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Re: 2015 Move 13g
« Reply #25 on: Jan 6th, 2016, 6:04pm »
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Hi Matt.
 
on Jan 6th, 2016, 12:08pm, mattj256 wrote:
Have we considered this? 13g Ef4 : Df5 Mb5e
This way if silver abandons the frame we're threatening to win a HD for M, or we're threatening to save the M and win a H outright.

 
The problem is 13s Mb5 Ec4 (Hf3x).  From this position the camel cannot be saved (it's in a basket, and Hb6 is false protection).  If we take the dog 14g ::Df3x then 14s M:Ra4 E:Mc6x also leaves no way to save the horse and we are down camel+horse for horse+dog with our only compensation the temporary imbalance in silver's forces.
 
Most of the rest that you said is accurate, though.
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mattj256
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Re: 2015 Move 13g
« Reply #26 on: Jan 6th, 2016, 11:04pm »
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on Jan 6th, 2016, 6:04pm, half_integer wrote:
The problem is 13s Mb5 Ec4 (Hf3x).
Ok that makes sense.  I never would have seen that without you pointing it out.
« Last Edit: Jan 6th, 2016, 11:04pm by mattj256 » IP Logged
mattj256
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Re: 2015 Move 13g
« Reply #27 on: Jan 6th, 2016, 11:25pm »
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13g Ef4nww Rg5e
13s mc6 : Hb6 rb7s ra7s (threatening H)
14g  :Mc5 Rg1e
14s Hf3n Ee3nww
15g (Gold pushes onto d6 and stuffs the c6 trap?)
 
This seems reasonable for gold.  I'm probably missing something.
« Last Edit: Jan 6th, 2016, 11:26pm by mattj256 » IP Logged
SilverMitt
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Re: 2015 Move 13g
« Reply #28 on: Jan 7th, 2016, 6:56pm »
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Perhaps another interesting 13s in reply to 13g Ec5 and 13g Ed5 gh5 is simply 13s Hg4 Df4, not committing to the elephant decentralization and immediately threatening the pull-and-replace.
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SilverMitt
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Re: 2015 Move 13g
« Reply #29 on: Jan 8th, 2016, 4:02pm »
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Well, if we wind up losing a camel for a horse, I would imagine that to be hopelessly behind for a game with this time control.  Curious how silver plays from here.
 
I was entirely set against a 13g with an Mc5 step, so I did not propose anything for the additional steps, but the two I would have liked, along with ab5, were a4.
« Last Edit: Jan 8th, 2016, 4:03pm by SilverMitt » IP Logged
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