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Topic: 2006 World Championship (Read 5932 times) |
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Fritzlein
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Arimaa player #706
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Posts: 5928
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Re: 2006 World Championship
« Reply #75 on: Dec 12th, 2005, 9:36am » |
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Thanks for the simulations and analysis, Ryan. Even though I think they have overstated my chances and continue to do so (Don't Adanac and Robinson now have a greater chance of winning than 99of9 and I?), I find them very interesting reading.
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Ryan_Cable
Forum Guru
Arimaa player #951
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Re: 2006 World Championship
« Reply #76 on: Dec 21st, 2005, 6:43am » |
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I calculated the exact odds for the tournament. I don’t have time to post the details but the odds are:
robinson 0.359618152
Fritzlein 0.322872859
99of9 0.19549511
Adanac 0.091306607
PMertens 0.030707272
Good Luck everyone.
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PMertens
Forum Guru
Arimaa player #692
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Re: 2006 World Championship
« Reply #77 on: Dec 21st, 2005, 7:10am » |
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those simply cannot be correct ...
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99of9
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Gnobby's creator (player #314)
 
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Re: 2006 World Championship
« Reply #78 on: Dec 21st, 2005, 7:23am » |
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Here's my current estimate:
robinson 48%
Fritzlein 16%
99of9 15%
Adanac 14%
PMertens 7%
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Fritzlein
Forum Guru
Arimaa player #706
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Posts: 5928
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Re: 2006 World Championship
« Reply #79 on: Dec 21st, 2005, 9:04am » |
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I have to say my intuition is a lot closer to 99of9's numbers than to Ryan's numbers. Thanks for the tipoff, 99of9, that you are betting 55% on me this round in the prediction contest. 
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| « Last Edit: Dec 21st, 2005, 10:34am by Fritzlein » |
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99of9
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Gnobby's creator (player #314)
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Re: 2006 World Championship
« Reply #80 on: Dec 21st, 2005, 4:18pm » |
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on Dec 21st, 2005, 9:04am, Fritzlein wrote:| Thanks for the tipoff, 99of9, that you are betting 55% on me this round in the prediction contest. |
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I included Achilles effects in my estimates, so it's not that simple.
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Fritzlein
Forum Guru
Arimaa player #706
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Posts: 5928
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Re: 2006 World Championship
« Reply #81 on: Dec 23rd, 2005, 8:11am » |
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What a great tournament! There's definitely a new set of titans in town...
I certainly wanted to win, but at least after getting eliminated in round five I can take a break from Arimaa and relax with my family over the holidays.
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PMertens
Forum Guru
Arimaa player #692
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Re: 2006 World Championship
« Reply #82 on: Dec 23rd, 2005, 6:56pm » |
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hey, I can do the same 
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Fritzlein
Forum Guru
Arimaa player #706
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Posts: 5928
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Re: 2006 World Championship
« Reply #83 on: Dec 25th, 2005, 10:22pm » |
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It seems that Adanac's WC victory over me is not showing up in the Player of the Month standings for December. Admittedly, PMertens probably has the PotM victory sewn up at this point, but it is still worth investigating what is wrong with the standings.
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PMertens
Forum Guru
Arimaa player #692
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Posts: 437
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Re: 2006 World Championship
« Reply #84 on: Dec 26th, 2005, 5:44am » |
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as far as I can tell everything is normal ... you guys already played one game with Adanac gold ... if you would play another with Adanac silver it would count.
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Fritzlein
Forum Guru
Arimaa player #706
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Posts: 5928
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Re: 2006 World Championship
« Reply #85 on: Dec 26th, 2005, 9:25pm » |
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Oh, I forgot about the color issue. Sorry for the red herring.
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omar
Forum Guru
Arimaa player #2
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Posts: 1003
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Re: 2006 World Championship
« Reply #86 on: Jan 1st, 2006, 11:09am » |
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I won't be around to see the finals of the WC games. It's been the most exciting tournament yet. Even more exicting than any professional chess tournament I've ever followed. Good luck to the remaining players. My brother in law Sameer will be setting up the games while Im gone. If you notice he forgot something please send a reminder at babbhai@yahoo.com and mohabbatse@yahoo.com.
I should be back on Jan 17th, inshallah.
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Fritzlein
Forum Guru
Arimaa player #706
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Posts: 5928
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Re: 2006 World Championship
« Reply #87 on: Jan 6th, 2006, 4:04pm » |
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on Nov 15th, 2005, 5:16pm, Ryan_Cable wrote:As a spectator, I am hoping to see you and 99of9 meet in round 4, and then again for the title, which together almost forms a best of 3 mini-match. There is probably a >10% chance of seeing 3 battle of the titans games in this tournament.  |
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Well, Ryan, you got your wish. The World Championship will include (and be decided by) a best of 3 mini-match between the titans, because neither of the titans lost any games to non-titans. Of course, the titans are Adanac and Robinson this year, but you can't be faulted for not knowing that in advance...
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Fritzlein
Forum Guru
Arimaa player #706
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Posts: 5928
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Re: 2006 World Championship
« Reply #88 on: Jan 13th, 2006, 6:18pm » |
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First, congratulations to Robinson, our new World Champion! I don't think we could have a better representative for the game. Arimaa will look all the more alluring to newcomers if an exciting attacking style can win all the marbles.
Second, I just have to say again that this has been an incredible tournament. Just a few of the reasons why:
* A record sixteen participants
* Six different countries represented
* Many exciting games that swung back and forth several times
* Lots of upsets to keep things interesting
* Many different openings and styles of play. (It's astonishing that there is still no single strategy or type of play that has emerged as dominant, nor has any piece setup or opening move sequence become standard.)
Congrats again to Omar for creating a great game and great place to play it. Finally, congrats to all of us for taking part.
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omar
Forum Guru
Arimaa player #2
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Posts: 1003
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Re: 2006 World Championship
« Reply #89 on: Jan 28th, 2006, 10:31am » |
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Yes, this definitely was an awsome tournament. Quite unpredictable and full of exciting games.
Congratulations to Till for earning the title of Arimaa world champion. Congratulations to Greg for placing second and a big thanks to all the players for entering the tournament and making it such an exiciting and entertaining event. I am convinced now that if Arimaa games of the future continue to be as exciting as those of this tournament, the spectators and fans of Arimaa will find much satisfaction and entertainment in future tournaments.
Congratulations to Jeff, Greg and Toby for placing 1st, 2nd and 3rd in the prediction contest. Karl deserves an honorable mention for being so close to the pack of top predictors and well ahead of the rest of the field.
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