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Title: Spectator contest Post by mistre on Feb 20th, 2008, 9:25am Where is the link to predict the games? My email just sends me to the registration page... |
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Title: Re: Spectator contest Post by The_Jeh on Feb 20th, 2008, 9:32am If you go to http://arimaa.com/arimaa/wc/2008/predict/ there's a link at the top to View/Enter predictions. |
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Title: Re: Spectator contest Post by mistre on Feb 20th, 2008, 11:43am It appears to be a browser issue. I still use the antiquated Netscape browser which shows the "register" link and not the "View/enter predictions" link. |
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Title: Re: Spectator contest Post by The_Jeh on Feb 20th, 2008, 12:00pm Maybe if you refresh the page it will show up? Perhaps you are seeing a cached version. |
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Title: Re: Spectator contest Post by mistre on Feb 20th, 2008, 12:15pm Thanks, that was the problem. |
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Title: Re: Spectator contest Post by Fritzlein on Feb 24th, 2008, 8:54am When do we find out who won the prediction on yesterday's game? Suspense is good during the game, but after the fact it would be kind of interesting to see the exact list of move predictions in order to analyze the distribution. I'm curious whether the distribution of predictions mirrors the actual distribution of HvH game lengths. |
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Title: Re: Spectator contest Post by mistre on Feb 24th, 2008, 12:22pm I got the Chessandgo vs Woh game exactly right, but I changed my move count yesterday, so if anyone had the same result/move count, they likely won for entering it first. I had Adanac in 37, not the closest, and 99of9 in 55 - probably not the closest. |
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Title: Re: Spectator contest Post by The_Jeh on Feb 24th, 2008, 1:20pm I got the chessandgo vs. woh exactly right, too, but I entered it long before yesterday. Sorry, mistre. :-/ |
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Title: Re: Spectator contest Post by mistre on Feb 24th, 2008, 3:56pm on 02/24/08 at 13:20:20, The_Jeh wrote:
That figures. :'( |
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Title: Re: Spectator contest Post by woh on Feb 24th, 2008, 3:59pm on 02/24/08 at 12:22:30, mistre wrote:
I am afraid not, mistre, I got 99of9 in 61. |
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Title: Re: Spectator contest Post by mistre on Feb 24th, 2008, 6:20pm My current prediction score is 401. Whatever that means... |
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Title: Re: Spectator contest Post by 99of9 on Feb 24th, 2008, 7:27pm on 02/24/08 at 15:59:48, woh wrote:
You're obviously all wimps :). Arimaa_master and I were already laughing at your predictions by move 17. When we got to the predicted average of 47, we had traded exactly one rabbit, so we figured the game would be approximately 47*8 moves long. At about that point arimaa_master started playing for score, given the imminent timeout of the game. I realised this a little too late, but made up for it with some ingenious rabbit carelessness, but I'm glad we didn't quite make it to the time limit, because he is much better at maximising his score than I am. |
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Title: Re: Spectator contest Post by woh on Feb 25th, 2008, 6:19am on 02/24/08 at 18:20:47, mistre wrote:
The scores are a left over from last year's spectator contest. They aren't relevant in this year's contest. But if you're interested you can find the details here (http://arimaa.com/arimaa/wc/2007/predict/predictHow.html). |
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Title: Re: Spectator contest Post by omar on Feb 29th, 2008, 11:43am Sorry for the delay in displaying the scores and winners for the prediction contest. I finished it up this morning. Let me know if there is any problem. Thanks. http://arimaa.com/arimaa/wc/2008/predict/predictions.cgi |
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Title: Re: Spectator contest Post by mistre on Feb 29th, 2008, 12:17pm I might have come in 2nd place in all 4 matches! |
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Title: Re: Spectator contest Post by Elmo on Feb 29th, 2008, 4:17pm on 02/29/08 at 12:17:49, mistre wrote:
Actually, you probably came in at best 3rd in the Fritzlein/Omar match, because I think I should have won, or at least that I should have finished ahead of the displayed winner. I predicted Fritzlein in 60, but for some reason it shows ArifSyed as the winner with 53 moves. Perhaps I am not allowed to predict on the game of a family member? :-/ |
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Title: Re: Spectator contest Post by chessandgo on Mar 1st, 2008, 4:27am I haven't seen any rule forbidding you to bet on a family member's game, this is very strange. On the game chessandgo-woh, my score shows 0, while it should show 1 if I understood properly, as I won the game. Did Greg and Toby witness the same problem ? |
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Title: Re: Spectator contest Post by 99of9 on Mar 1st, 2008, 7:13am I was also confused by that, but I reread the rules and found that I am ineligible to predict my own games. Therefore I cannot win points on them (even if I win). |
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Title: Re: Spectator contest Post by chessandgo on Mar 1st, 2008, 7:20am hmmmm I thought this applied only to the global game prize (plus the fact that a player has to bet on himself), but not to the 1$ bonus. I guess this makes the spectator contest a little bit unprofitable (or par) for the players who go to the end. Never mind ... :) |
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Title: Re: Spectator contest Post by omar on Mar 2nd, 2008, 9:16am Elmo, you are right. There was a bug in my code. I've fixed it now. |
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Title: Re: Spectator contest Post by omar on Mar 2nd, 2008, 9:56am on 03/01/08 at 04:27:27, chessandgo wrote:
You should have got a point on that game. I've fixed it. |
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Title: Re: Spectator contest Post by Fritzlein on Mar 2nd, 2008, 10:23am on 03/02/08 at 09:56:50, omar wrote:
So does that mean players are now allowed to predict on their own games? Does that extend to predicting themselves to lose, and also extend to predicting the correct number of moves (although losing on purpose and winning more slowly on purpose are within a player's control)? Or is it like the old prediction contest where you can't make a prediction on your own game, but you are rewarded for winning? Whatever the situation is that gives chessandgo a dollar from his win over woh, it isn't clear from the rules... [EDIT] I'm sorry to be arguing against Omar giving away more money, but it just opens a huge can of worms for players to be able to predict on their own games. Suppose, hypothetically, that I'm facing off against chessandgo for the championship with a $25 prediction prize on the line. Suppose that I impartially and fairly pick a winner. Now, when it comes to entering the number of moves, there is a temptation no matter who I chose to win. If I chose myself to win, I will be tempted to pick myself to win in some high number of moves that nobody guessed, because if I really do get the superior position, I can choose to play ultra-cautiously to draw out the game just long enough. That way I get the championship prize money and the extra $25 for correct prediction. On the other hand, if I chose myself to lose, I will be tempted to pick myself to lose in some short number of moves that nobody guessed, because if I am getting whipped in the opening and am heading for a loss anyway, I can "accidentally" not see chessandgo's goal threat just in time. That way, if I'm in a terrible position where I'm not going to get the championship money anyway, I will at least get $25 for the correct prediction. I certainly wouldn't suspect anyone here of manipulating the games to get a few extra bucks in the prediction contest, but just because those scenarios are possible we shouldn't let people bet on their own games. Just think what happens if chessandgo wins the final game in 53 moves, and by coincidence he had picked himself to win in 53 moves, so he gets the $25. I would refuse to believe that chessandgo manipulated the result, but it still would look terrible to the outside world. Chessandgo himself would probably rather not get the prize than have the appearance of having acted in bad faith. There is a reason professional athletes are not allowed to bet on their own teams, or even on their own sports. Indeed, I would understand if my wife were disqualified from predicting on my games, even though she never tells me what number of moves she has predicted, or whether she has predicted me or my opponent to win. I felt awkward when she was closest in move number on my first-round game. I don't think contests that are free to enter are regulated in the same way that gambling is regulated, but I believe that as soon as you must pay to play it becomes gambling, even though more goes out in prizes than comes in via entry fees. Especially in that context, I think we should err on the side of caution. |
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Title: Re: Spectator contest Post by woh on Mar 2nd, 2008, 4:48pm on 03/02/08 at 10:23:46, Fritzlein wrote:
No, in my own games I had no choise. I could only select myself to win and I couldn't set the number of moves. So a player can only get 1$ for getting the result right by winning the game. In that way there not much room for manipulation. But I agree with Fritzlein. It would be better if players are excluded from their own games all together. This was how I understood the rules of the contest: "Note: Players may also register to predict. However players will not be allowed to predict on their own games" |
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Title: Re: Spectator contest Post by Fritzlein on Mar 2nd, 2008, 5:17pm Oh, thanks for the clarification woh. I didn't register for the spectator contest myself, so I hadn't seen how the interface works. Maybe the rule could be "Players will not be allowed to predict on their own games, but will be compensated by getting $1 for each game won" or even $1 whether or not they win, or whatever. |
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Title: Re: Spectator contest Post by omar on Mar 2nd, 2008, 6:03pm Thanks guys. I've update the rules to make it more clear. |
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