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Topic: College Football (Read 3501 times) |
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Fritzlein
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Re: College Football
« Reply #15 on: Nov 11th, 2007, 5:43pm » |
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on Nov 11th, 2007, 3:29pm, The_Jeh wrote:Through Week 11
1. LSU 9-1
2. Oregon 8-1
3. Arizona State 9-1
4. Ohio State 10-1
5. Missouri 9-1
6. Georgia 8-2
7. Virginia Tech 8-2
8. Kansas 10-0
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This first method shows how you can be penalized for playing weak opponents, even if you beat them. Kansas would be better off having not even played its first four games. Remove those wins, and then a 6-0 Kansas will top the list, or at least be very near.
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The_Jeh
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Re: College Football
« Reply #16 on: Nov 11th, 2007, 7:49pm » |
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Yeah. The schedule strength system would be more meaningful if margin of victory were taken into consideration, because then there would be realistic expectations for playing weak teams. I really am not a big fan of margin of victory though, as I think the object of a game is to win, not win by any certain amount.
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The_Jeh
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Re: College Football
« Reply #17 on: Nov 18th, 2007, 12:18pm » |
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Well then, for the new week I'm going to abandon the first method. When I think about the reasoning of the second method, I like it a lot better.
Remember, with this system, the likelihood that team A defeats team B is given by A/(A+B). All college football games have been considered. In addition, each team has been given one win and two losses to a fictional Anchor team. The computer then calculates what rating values maximize the likelihood of seeing the results that were seen.
Through November 17
1. Kansas 11-0 5.41899
2. LSU 10-1 5.20502
3. Ohio State 11-1 5.17529
4. Missouri 10-1 4.50428
5. West Virginia 9-1 3.99573
6. Arizona State 9-1 3.72979
7. Boston College 9-2 3.68082
8. Georgia 9-2 3.65684
9. Virginia Tech 9-2 3.43755
10. Hawai'i 10-0 3.35496
11. Florida 8-3 3.02305
12. Oregon 8-2 2.99427
13. Illinois 9-3 2.86958
14. Oklahoma 9-2 2.80531
15. Connecticut 9-2 2.74282
16. Virginia 9-2 2.71375
17. Texas 9-2 2.67379
18. South Florida 8-3 2.63219
19. Boise State 10-1 2.55841
20. Clemson 8-3 2.48578
21. Wisconsin 9-3 2.42086
22. Tennessee 8-3 2.37501
23. Brigham Young 8-2 2.35899
24. USC 8-2 2.32043
25. Cincinnati 8-3 2.24387
Predictions for selected games this week:
Kansas 55%, Missouri 45%
Hawai'i 57%, Boise State 43%
West Virginia 59%, Connecticut 41%
Arizona State 62%, USC 38%
LSU 79%, Arkansas 21%
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| « Last Edit: Nov 18th, 2007, 10:29pm by The_Jeh » |
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The_Jeh
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Re: College Football
« Reply #18 on: Nov 25th, 2007, 1:24am » |
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Through November 24
1. Missouri 11-1 5.60693
2. Ohio State 11-1 5.06008
3. West Virginia 10-1 4.85715
4. Hawai'i 11-0 4.26141
5. Kansas 11-1 4.18928
6. Boston College 10-2 4.08614
7. Georgia 10-2 3.97843
8. Virginia Tech 10-2 3.95533
9. LSU 10-2 3.88606
10. Oklahoma 10-2 3.25863
11. Florida 9-3 3.24526
12. Arizona State 9-2 2.93417
13. Illinois 9-3 2.89044
14. Clemson 9-3 2.86987
15. South Florida 9-3 2.86491
16. Brigham Young 9-2 2.82428
17. Tennessee 9-3 2.74949
18. USC 9-2 2.72120
19. Wisconsin 9-3 2.42238
20. Oregon 8-3 2.33131
21. Connecticut 9-3 2.32555
22. Cincinnati 9-3 2.29049
23. Virginia 9-3 2.28968
24. Michigan 8-4 2.18822
25. Boise State 10-2 2.16534
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The_Jeh
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Re: College Football
« Reply #19 on: Nov 29th, 2007, 1:42pm » |
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I have recently made huge improvements to the ranking system. I made a new model that considers only points and disregards wins and losses. When I combine it with the Bradley-Terry model (with anchor), the results are much better than any of my rankings before. It is much harder to tabulate, however, so here are the top ten teams using games through November 24:
1. West Virginia
2. Missouri
3. Ohio State
4. Kansas
5. Oklahoma
6. LSU
7. Florida
8. Georgia
9. Arizona State
10. Virginia Tech
[11. South Florida]
[12. Hawai'i]
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| « Last Edit: Nov 30th, 2007, 9:21pm by The_Jeh » |
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The_Jeh
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Re: College Football
« Reply #20 on: Dec 2nd, 2007, 10:41am » |
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Final Rankings
1. Oklahoma 11-2
2. Ohio State 11-1
3. Kansas 11-1
4. LSU 11-2
5. Missouri 11-2
6. Florida 9-3
7. West Virginia 10-2
8. Virginia Tech 11-2
9. USC 10-2
10. Georgia 10-2
11. Arizona State 10-2
12. South Florida 9-3
13. Clemson 9-3
14. Cincinnati 9-3
15. Oregon 8-4
16. Boston College 10-3
17. Brigham Young 10-2
18. Texas 9-3
19. Tennessee 9-4
20. Illinois 9-3
21. Hawai'i 12-0
22. Boise State 10-2
23. Auburn 8-4
24. Arkansas 8-4
25. Penn State 8-4
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| « Last Edit: Dec 2nd, 2007, 11:03am by The_Jeh » |
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