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Topic: Link to "recent upsets" (Read 1709 times) |
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obiwan
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Link to "recent upsets"
« on: Jul 22nd, 2006, 10:09pm » |
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In a game comment, I suggested a "recent upsets" link which would show games where the winner was rated lower than the loser. Ron Weasley and Fritzlein liked the idea so I thought I'd suggest it in this forum.
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Fritzlein
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Re: Link to "recent upsets"
« Reply #1 on: Jul 23rd, 2006, 2:04pm » |
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Yes, I really like the idea. (Also it is well to post it here where Omar will see it eventually.) Maybe there should be a minimum of 100 points rating difference so doesn't display a bunch of games between basically equal people.
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DorianGaray
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Re: Link to "recent upsets"
« Reply #2 on: Jul 23rd, 2006, 4:52pm » |
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I'd say 200 points at least.
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arimaa_master
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Re: Link to "recent upsets"
« Reply #3 on: Jul 24th, 2006, 11:27am » |
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Ok, lets say 150 points seem to be reasonable compromise 
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seanick
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Re: Link to "recent upsets"
« Reply #4 on: Jul 28th, 2006, 11:09am » |
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Out of May 2006 human vs human games, (admittedly a very limited sample but I am late for work):
where the loser is rated higher than the winner, these are the percentages:
100+ 43.6%
200+ 39.3%
300+ 24.8%
400+ 12.8%
<my vote for an upset is somewhere between these two>
500+ 5.1%
600+ 0.9%
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Ryan_Cable
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Re: Link to "recent upsets"
« Reply #5 on: Jul 28th, 2006, 11:48am » |
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Wow, it would be interesting to see if those numbers held up over a longer time scale. The ELO equation predicts substantially different results:
50 0.4285
100 0.3599
150 0.2966
200 0.2402
250 0.1916
300 0.1509
350 0.1176
400 0.0909
450 0.0697
500 0.0532
550 0.0404
600 0.0306
650 0.0231
700 0.0174
750 0.0131
800 0.0099
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chessandgo
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Re: Link to "recent upsets"
« Reply #6 on: Jul 28th, 2006, 1:29pm » |
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well, this doesn't seem substantially different prediction is just a bit too low for little upsets and too high for big upsets, but figures are comparable, aren't they ?
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Fritzlein
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Re: Link to "recent upsets"
« Reply #7 on: Jul 28th, 2006, 1:36pm » |
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on Jul 28th, 2006, 11:48am, Ryan_Cable wrote:| The ELO equation predicts substantially different results: |
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No, I don't think that is what seanick is measuring. He is reporting out of games that actually were upsets. Those results are clearly contingent on what games have been played. If, for example, no games are ever played between opponents within 100 rating points of each other, then 100% of upsets will have a gap of at least 100 points, etc.
He is specifically not saying that a gap of 400 points results in 12.8% upsets, but rather that 12.8% of the upsets that actually occurred had a gap of 400 points or more.
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| « Last Edit: Jul 28th, 2006, 4:12pm by Fritzlein » |
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Ryan_Cable
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Re: Link to "recent upsets"
« Reply #8 on: Jul 28th, 2006, 2:14pm » |
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100+ 44.7
200+ 75.5
300+ 192.7
400+ 333.3
500+ 507.9
600+ 816.7
Those are the rating differences corresponding to seanick’s upset percentages. I don’t expect the ratings to be particularly accurate for 600+, but I am quite surprised by the other results. To my mind, a rating error of more than 100 points for aggregate data like this is quite substantial.
Also, I am surprised by the direction of the error. I have argued elsewhere in the forum that the ratings are too compressed and would spread out more over time, but this seems to indicate that the ratings are actually too spread out.
I would like to see the results for a larger period of time and also for data restricted to 1600+ or 1700+ HvH games, given that ratings near 1500 tend to be particularly inaccurate.
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Ryan_Cable
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Re: Link to "recent upsets"
« Reply #9 on: Jul 28th, 2006, 2:22pm » |
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on Jul 28th, 2006, 1:36pm, Fritzlein wrote:| He is specifically not saying that a gap of 400 points results in 12.8% upsets, but rather that 12.8% of the upsets that actualy occurred had a gap of 400 points or more. |
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Oh, then nothing I just wrote makes any sense. Still, I would be interested to see an analysis that did it that way.
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seanick
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Re: Link to "recent upsets"
« Reply #10 on: Jul 28th, 2006, 10:44pm » |
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ok, it turns out I ran into a bug in excel. some of the sort's I did resulted in only some of the columns getting sorted correctly. so some of the games I had based my estimates on were not hvh, and so those previous numbers are complete bunk.
this time I was more careful to make sure that didn't happen, and I came up with much more reasonable numbers.
first, only 19% of the games, TOTAL, end with the loser having a higher rating ..
they break down like this, out of only 116 games of hvh during May.
sorry for the confusion...
0 23 19.83%
100 16 13.79%
200 9 7.76%
300 3 2.59%
500 2 1.72%
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seanick
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Re: Link to "recent upsets"
« Reply #11 on: Jul 28th, 2006, 10:59pm » |
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since those games are actually the upsets for the month of may I figured I would just provide that data as well....
here is the set of games for winners rated 100+ points less than the loser:
| id | wusername | wrating | busername | brating | diff. | result | | 31546 | blue22 | 2019 | Belbo | 1908 | 111 | b | | 32363 | Ryan_Cable | 2130 | chessandgo | 2015 | 115 | b | | 31998 | chessandgo | 1958 | PMertens | 2083 | 125 | w | | 32221 | chessandgo | 1999 | Ryan_Cable | 2134 | 135 | w | | 32244 | KT2006 | 1678 | seanick | 1535 | 143 | b | | 32350 | Calumet45 | 1402 | seanick | 1558 | 156 | w | | 32380 | Karlo | 1657 | nbarriga | 1500 | 157 | b | | 32433 | blue22 | 1997 | jdb | 1796 | 201 | b | | 31938 | robinson | 2177 | Belbo | 1958 | 219 | b | | 31556 | Fritzlein | 2345 | Adanac | 2120 | 225 | b | | 32175 | Fritzlein | 2319 | PMertens | 2061 | 258 | b | | 32441 | chessandgo | 2018 | kamikazeking | 1745 | 273 | b | | 30834 | chessandgo | 1797 | unic | 1521 | 276 | b | | 31485 | chessandgo | 1794 | Adanac | 2141 | 347 | w | | 31588 | chessandgo | 1808 | Fritzlein | 2329 | 521 | w |
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chessandgo
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Re: Link to "recent upsets"
« Reply #12 on: Jul 29th, 2006, 12:12am » |
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heh, I'm very proud to have the 2 biggest upsets in both directions 
I fear I'll still have the record for the worst performance this month 
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Fritzlein
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Re: Link to "recent upsets"
« Reply #13 on: Jul 29th, 2006, 12:58am » |
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That list of games is an interesting reminder that chessandgo's rating rose 200 points in May.  Based on this list of games it seems that we would have plenty to talk about if we listed only upsets with a rating difference of 200 points or more, including HvB and BvB games.
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DorianGaray
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Re: Link to "recent upsets"
« Reply #14 on: Jul 29th, 2006, 5:47am » |
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on Jul 29th, 2006, 12:58am, Fritzlein wrote:| That list of games is an interesting reminder that chessandgo's rating rose 200 points in May. Based on this list of games it seems that we would have plenty to talk about if we listed only upsets with a rating difference of 200 points or more, including HvB and BvB games. |
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we could put it in lieu of "human games" which is now redundant with "recent games" (given the new features).
I think that the only interesting list is "upset HvH games".
(Bots can be won using recipes, humans can't)
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