Author |
Topic: average captures (Read 2723 times) |
|
Fritzlein
Forum Guru
Arimaa player #706
Gender: 
Posts: 5928
|
 |
Re: average captures
« Reply #15 on: Jul 21st, 2006, 3:50pm » |
 Quote  Modify
|
on Jul 19th, 2006, 8:29am, Adanac wrote:| I've definitely played more games against the high-capture players rather than low-capture players. I'm sure that's one of several reasons that I have a higher than average score. |
|
Oh, dear. You had to go and complicate the problem by saying your capture density is due to who your opponents have been.
To account for who your opponents happen to have been, I set up the problem differently. I put a list of all the rated HvH games into a spreadsheet, and then made a capture density variable for each player. For each game, I calculated the expected number of captures as the average capture density of the two players times the number of steps in the game. Then I let the Excel solver tool adjust everyone's capture density variable to minimize the sum of the square error between actual captures and expected captures.
You will notice from the new list, Adanac, that the high capture density in your games is your fault, and not to be blamed on your opponents.  I can't interpret these numbers any better than the previous list, but this method should correct for anything that is due to the style of your opponent rather than due to your own style.
4.06 jdb
3.71 clauchau
3.64 blue22
3.33 Adanac
3.29 99of9
3.17 Fritzlein
3.09 megamau
2.98 Ryan_Cable
2.96 seanick
2.93 chessandgo
2.82 robinson
2.80 Paul
2.77 OLTI
2.68 PMertens
2.65 Belbo
2.54 Arimanator
2.46 naveed
2.39 Swynndla
2.32 omar
2.03 kamikazeking
P.S. Based on our last game, Adanac, we are both to blame for a high number of captures. When I got the material advantage, I didn't go for a direct goal, but rather tried to retain control of the game. Meanwhile you tried to prolong the game to 60 moves for Player of the Month. Thus I was forced to take a bunch of your pieces before winning.
|
| « Last Edit: Jul 21st, 2006, 3:57pm by Fritzlein » |
 IP Logged |
|
|
|
99of9
Forum Guru
Gnobby's creator (player #314)
 
Gender:
Posts: 1413
|
|
Re: average captures
« Reply #16 on: Jul 21st, 2006, 6:20pm » |
Quote Modify
|
Is there an easy way to split this figure up:
*captures of my pieces when I won
* captures of my pieces when I lost
* captures of his pieces when I won
* captures of his pieces when I lost
That might help us analyse the results more easily.
|
|
IP Logged |
|
|
|
Fritzlein
Forum Guru
Arimaa player #706
Gender:
Posts: 5928
|
|
Re: average captures
« Reply #17 on: Jul 31st, 2006, 5:37pm » |
Quote Modify
|
Ok, 99of9, you had to ask. For this calculation, I did not take into account the opponents in each game. I merely calculated the average captures/losses for each player in games they won/lost.
The first column is how many pieces per game the player took.
The second column is how many pieces per game the player lost.
The third column is how many pieces per game the winner captured more than the loser. (A positive number for everyone, i.e. nobody wins while capturing less than their opponent, or loses while capturing more, at least on average.)
I find extremes in the third column interesting. Among losers, omar and Fritzlein capture nearly as many pieces as their opponents, which suggests that they frequently lose by goal when up on material. Seanick is at the other extreme of losers, suggesting that when he loses, he's way behind on material. Swynndla is a distant second in losing seanick-style.
Among winners, kamikazeking, clauchau, and blue22 capture barely more than their opponents, suggesting they win by goal more than by material domination. The other extreme of winners is again seanick, suggesting that he accumulates a large material advantage before winning. Others who win with material advantage seem to be Swynndla, 99of9, and Fritzlein.
This breakdown seems more enlightening than previous ones, because there can be different axes for winning and losing. It seems Fritzlein wins materially and loses by goal, seanick wins materially and loses materially, jdb wins by goal and loses materially, and Adanac tends to win by goal and lose by goal. Interesting stuff...
6.09 2.87 3.22 99of9 wins
4.15 6.20 2.04 99of9 losses
5.90 3.66 2.24 Adanac wins
3.94 5.71 1.77 Adanac losses
5.09 1.95 3.14 Arimanator wins
1.61 4.00 2.39 Arimanator losses
5.83 3.19 2.64 Belbo wins
3.83 6.00 2.17 Belbo losses
5.00 2.88 2.12 blue22 wins
3.18 5.34 2.16 blue22 losses
5.05 2.24 2.81 chessandgo wins
2.89 4.80 1.91 chessandgo losses
3.55 1.50 2.05 clauchau wins
2.67 5.43 2.76 clauchau losses
6.32 3.15 3.17 Fritzlein wins
4.85 5.52 0.67 Fritzlein losses
5.15 2.78 2.37 jdb wins
3.36 7.00 3.64 jdb losses
4.03 2.53 1.50 kamikazeking wins
1.59 4.51 2.92 kamikazeking losses
5.40 3.07 2.33 megamau wins
2.97 4.97 2.00 megamau losses
5.32 2.25 3.07 naveed wins
2.61 3.93 1.32 naveed losses
5.25 2.57 2.68 OLTI wins
1.65 5.07 3.42 OLTI losses
4.83 1.77 3.06 omar wins
3.24 3.98 0.75 omar losses
5.27 2.77 2.50 Paul wins
2.92 5.69 2.77 Paul losses
5.49 2.59 2.90 PMertens wins
3.06 5.93 2.88 PMertens losses
5.28 2.89 2.38 robinson wins
4.36 7.34 2.99 robinson losses
5.46 2.76 2.69 Ryan_Cable wins
3.03 5.63 2.60 Ryan_Cable losses
6.38 2.88 3.50 seanick wins
1.24 6.35 5.11 seanick losses
4.97 1.60 3.37 Swynndla wins
2.54 6.40 3.86 Swynndla losses
|
| « Last Edit: Jul 31st, 2006, 5:41pm by Fritzlein » |
IP Logged |
|
|
|
seanick
Forum Guru
SeaNICK
Gender:
Posts: 97
|
|
Re: average captures
« Reply #18 on: Jul 31st, 2006, 11:24pm » |
Quote Modify
|
Indeed, that is the most enlightening that this class of statistic has ever been.
hmm... how to increase my win by goal, and decrease my loss of material...
solution: assimilate the style of other goal-winner low-material-loser player(s) - look for recent games by
omar and fritz to analyze.
also, realize that my games are the bloodiest. but... how else to clear the path for a rabbit? otherwise, the other pieces keep getting in the way 
|
|
IP Logged |
|
|
|
|
Home
Help
Search
Members
Login
Register
Reply
Notify of replies
Send Topic
Print