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Topic: Measure stereotyped openings (Read 16121 times) |
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rozencrantz
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Arimaa player #4007
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Re: Measure stereotyped openings
« Reply #45 on: Jul 4th, 2010, 3:41pm » |
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Are there any other stereotyped positions to be alert for? I know that Go's joseki can show up any time during the early game, and Hex's templates can show up almost any time.
I'm working on little more than hunches here, but some early-game behavior seems stereotyped to me, even if the specifics vary quite a bit, it seems like gold very often starts by harassing with the elephant.
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woh
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Re: Measure stereotyped openings
« Reply #46 on: Jul 5th, 2010, 3:21am » |
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on Jul 4th, 2010, 2:37am, Fritzlein wrote:37. 15
RMREHRHR
RCRDDRCR
I wonder how many of those fifteen were me. I know I tried it for a while, but I forget how long exactly.
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Fritzlein, you have used this setup 8 times. The first time was in game 88582 played on November 15th 2008 and the last time in game 121447 on April 12th 2009.
It has also been used by Simon (4 times) and Nombril, robinson, and Harren (1 time each).
on Jul 4th, 2010, 9:40am, FireBorn wrote:| I think I've tried that one a few times too |
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FireBorn, there are no games where you have used this setup, neither against a human nor against a bot.
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Fritzlein
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Re: Measure stereotyped openings
« Reply #47 on: Jul 5th, 2010, 4:18am » |
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on Jul 5th, 2010, 3:21am, woh wrote:Fritzlein, you have used this setup 8 times. The first time was in game 88582 played on November 15th 2008 and the last time in game 121447 on April 12th 2009.
It has also been used by Simon (4 times) and Nombril, robinson, and Harren (1 time each). |
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Interesting, thanks. To some extent I am sure that variation in opening setups comes from every individual having his own pet setup that he sticks to religiously, i.e. the variation is more from player to player than from game to game for each player. This setup, however, shows that individuals are experimenting. It was more than just a phase I went through on my own.
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FireBorn
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Re: Measure stereotyped openings
« Reply #48 on: Jul 5th, 2010, 2:14pm » |
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You're right. I think I switched a dog and a cat when I used it, but I've used it a few times.
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Fritzlein
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Re: Measure stereotyped openings
« Reply #49 on: Apr 7th, 2012, 7:16pm » |
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Woh, it has been four years since you first quantified Arimaa openings, and almost two years since your last update. If you have the time and the old code lying around, I wold love to see the up-to-date statistics. I'm going to bet that entropy is still increasing, since no consensus on openings has emerged in the past two years, or if it has emerged then nobody told me. Thanks in advance!
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woh
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Re: Measure stereotyped openings
« Reply #50 on: Apr 9th, 2012, 11:01am » |
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| mov | gam | dis | dup | max | sin | S | Smax | S% | | 1w | 8794 | 1258 | 7536 | 1815 | 893 | 6.0942 | 13.1023 | 46.51 | | 1b | 8794 | 4724 | 4070 | 342 | 4047 | 10.6823 | 13.1023 | 81.53 | | 2w | 8794 | 5927 | 2867 | 153 | 5259 | 11.6852 | 13.1023 | 89.18 | | 2b | 8794 | 7155 | 1639 | 59 | 6588 | 12.4650 | 13.1023 | 95.14 | | 3w | 8792 | 8190 | 602 | 17 | 7851 | 12.9221 | 13.1020 | 98.63 | | 3b | 8765 | 8568 | 197 | 6 | 8421 | 13.0469 | 13.0975 | 99.61 | | 4w | 8724 | 8663 | 61 | 3 | 8608 | 13.0763 | 13.0908 | 99.89 | | 4b | 8694 | 8669 | 25 | 3 | 8645 | 13.0800 | 13.0858 | 99.96 |
The entropy is still increasing but not that fast (after 1w).
The increase was only 0.1947 while the maximum increased by 0.5101
The top opening is almost 50% up, from 1249 to 1815 now.
On the other hand 321 new setups has been used.
It looks to me like some players are experimenting with new setups but nothing is really catching on while most players stick with what they used to.
After 4b (or even sooner) there still are hardly any duplicate positions.
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woh
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Re: Measure stereotyped openings
« Reply #51 on: Apr 9th, 2012, 11:59am » |
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The top gold setups now are:
1. (2) 1815 (+643)
RHCMECHR
RRRDDRRR
2. (1) 1523 (+274)
RHDMEDHR
RRRCCRRR
3. (4) 582 (+332)
DHCMECHD
RRRRRRRR
4. (3) 413 (+8 )
HDCMECDH
RRRRRRRR
5. (6) 215 (+58 )
RHDMECHR
RRRCDRRR
6. (5) 202 (+42)
RHRMERHR
RCRDDRCR
7. (7) 129 (+18 )
RHRMERHR
RDRCCRDR
8. (-) 110
RHDMEDHR
RRCRRCRR
9. (10) 108 (+43)
RHDMEDHR
RCRRRRCR
10. (8 ) 106 (+24)
RMDHEDHR
RRRCCRRR
The top 2 switched position again with the 99of9 setup with cats behind the traps taking the lead over the 99of9 setup with the dogs behind the traps.
The setups with 4 rabbits in front seems to loose popularity with the first one dropping from 5th to 6th place.
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woh
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Re: Measure stereotyped openings
« Reply #52 on: Apr 9th, 2012, 12:14pm » |
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Now 831 games started with both horses on the same half of the board. This accounts for 9,4% of the games, a small increase.
20. (21) 49 (+15)
RHCHECMR
RRRDDRRR
30. (29) 27 (+4)
RMRDECHH
RCRRDRRR
32. (-) 26
RMRDERHH
RCRCDRRR
34. (31) 24 (+5)
DHCHECMD
RRRRRRRR
35. (35) 23 (+7)
RHDHEDMR
RRRCCRRR
37. (-) 19
DMRCEDHH
RRRCRRRR
38. (32) 19 (+2)
RMCDDEHH
RRRRRCRR
45. (-) 16
DMCDECHH
RRRRRRRR
46. (-) 16
RHDHECMR
RRRCDRRR
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ginrunner
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Re: Measure stereotyped openings
« Reply #53 on: Apr 9th, 2012, 9:11pm » |
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Mine isn't there  either it is a bad set or too weird for people to be comfortable with.
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Fritzlein
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Re: Measure stereotyped openings
« Reply #54 on: Apr 10th, 2012, 10:47am » |
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Thanks woh. I agree with your impression that a lot of people are just sticking with what they know. I also thought maybe 99of9 was re-asserting its dominance for Gold, and so it is. We have 42% more games than last time you ran the numbers, and the one true 99of9 setup (cats behind the traps) was up 55%. But if we take the three 99of9 that are in the top ten (#1, #2, and #5 together), it has only been a 38% increase. So as a whole, the 99of9 setup lost mindshare.
Some of that mindshare went to different placements of rabbits on the back rank. Apparently pulling a back central rabbit is no longer enough of a threat to deter starting rabbits there, so people are looking for different advantages. Also the fact that the percentage of Gold setups with both horses on the same side actually increased means the conventional wisdom that Gold must have a balanced setup is still far from universal.
It is tremendously encouraging that Gold setup entropy is still increasing. Already by the Silver setup, I am quite sure that we haven't played enough games yet to measure it properly. I expect the entropy after 1s to keep rising for some time, until the unique positions aren't such a large proportion of the total. But the entropy after 1g could have fallen even this time without surprising me. It is much easier to standardize when you have nothing to react to.
So the fact that even the entropy of 1g is still increasing means that we still have no generally accepted opening theory at all, not even for the setups. If the repetition in setups comes mostly from the fact that everyone has his own pet setup, then simply the increased number of people playing is increasing entropy.
As always, the numbers are fascinating. Thanks for running it again.
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hyperpape
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Re: Measure stereotyped openings
« Reply #55 on: Apr 10th, 2012, 3:58pm » |
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Entropy can also be increasing because as players get more experience, they may feel more of an urge to experiment, regardless of what they think is the best setup. That seems like an untestable, but also unfalsifiable suggestion, unfortunately.
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Fritzlein
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Re: Measure stereotyped openings
« Reply #56 on: Mar 21st, 2014, 9:12pm » |
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Hervé, it has been almost two years since your last update of these statistics, and a lot has changed in the opening, particularly due to the influence of browni's setup as Silver (and sometimes Gold). Would you be willing to give us another update?
In the past the entropy of the Gold setup has increased
5.6121 > 5.8995 > 6.0942,
while the entropy of the combined setups has increased
9.4795 > 10.2214 > 10.6823
I would be shocked if the second number hasn't increased still further. Indeed, I expect that when opening theory finally stabilizes, the second number will be more than double the first, because Silver will have more viable options in response to Gold than Gold has in a vacuum.
On the other hand, it wouldn't be too surprising if the first number has declined, given the increasing ascendancy of the 99of9 setup. That seems to be the emerging consensus, anyway, although I haven't done even the briefest scan to see if it holds numerically. Will the one, true 99of9 setup have more than 20.6%? Will the combination of that with dogs behind the traps (which 99of9 himself played in 2014 World Championship) have increased beyond 38.0%?
I am curious, if you have the time to run the numbers.
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woh
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Re: Measure stereotyped openings
« Reply #57 on: Mar 24th, 2014, 7:21am » |
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on Mar 21st, 2014, 9:12pm, Fritzlein wrote:| Hervé, it has been almost two years since your last update of these statistics, and a lot has changed in the opening, particularly due to the influence of browni's setup as Silver (and sometimes Gold). Would you be willing to give us another update? |
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Sure. I didn't realize it had been that long.
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woh
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Re: Measure stereotyped openings
« Reply #58 on: Mar 25th, 2014, 4:17pm » |
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| mov | gam | dis | dup | max | sin | S | Smax | S% | | 1g | 11434 | 1503 | 9931 | 2818 | 1071 | 6.0417 | 13.4810 | 44.82 | | 1s | 11434 | 5861 | 5573 | 629 | 5003 | 10.8053 | 13.4810 | 80.15 | | 2g | 11434 | 7515 | 3919 | 276 | 6647 | 11.9185 | 13.4810 | 88.41 | | 2s | 11434 | 9131 | 2303 | 144 | 8405 | 12.7262 | 13.4810 | 94.40 | | 3g | 11431 | 10519 | 912 | 81 | 10080 | 13.2372 | 13.4807 | 98.19 | | 3s | 11387 | 11065 | 322 | 26 | 10853 | 13.4036 | 13.4751 | 99.47 | | 4g | 11336 | 11247 | 89 | 8 | 11176 | 13.4512 | 13.4686 | 99.87 | | 4s | 11294 | 11257 | 37 | 5 | 11225 | 13.4563 | 13.4633 | 99.95 |
You're correct Fritz!
The entropy after 1g has slightly decreased. 6.0942 > 6.0417
And after 1s the entropy has still encreased.
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woh
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Re: Measure stereotyped openings
« Reply #59 on: Mar 25th, 2014, 4:38pm » |
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1. (1) 2818 (+1003)
RHCMECHR
RRRDDRRR
2. (2) 1683 (+160)
RHDMEDHR
RRRCCRRR
3. (3) 841 (+259)
DHCMECHD
RRRRRRRR
4. (4) 424 (+11)
HDCMECDH
RRRRRRRR
5. (5) 266 (+51)
RHDMECHR
RRRCDRRR
6. (6) 240 (+38 )
RHRMERHR
RCRDDRCR
7. (8 ) 168 (+58 )
RHDMEDHR
RRCRRCRR
8. (-) 134
CHDMEDHC
RRRRRRRR
9. (7) 132 (+3)
RHRMERHR
RDRCCRDR
10. (9) 119 (+11)
RHDMEDHR
RCRRRRCR
No changes at the top. But the 99of9 setup with cats behind the traps has increased its lead.
Its share went up to 24.6%.
The combination of both 99of9 setups has increased to 39.4%.
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