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   Author  Topic: Game lengths  (Read 2908 times)
Fritzlein
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Game lengths
« on: Jan 8th, 2010, 10:21am »
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Janzert asked yesterday in chat whether game lengths have been increasing recently.  I queried over the games of the last seven years, and found no trend over time.
 
year  all   gimpe  rated  humans  1700+  1900+
----  ---   -----  -----  ------  -----  -----
2003  23.4  26.4   30.0   31.1    38.1   48.1
2004  30.0  32.9   36.4   40.7    44.6   46.8
2005  28.7  33.5   35.9   39.1    45.4   47.5
2006  31.1  34.5   34.6   39.7    43.5   45.3
2007  31.4  35.7   35.3   38.7    45.8   46.2
2008  28.8  34.0   34.5   38.2    44.2   46.9
2009  30.5  35.4   35.4   36.7    44.5   45.7

 
Each column averages a subset of games from the previous column.  First I considered all games, then only games with termination g, i, m, p, or e, then only rated games, then only games with both players human, then only games with both players rated over 1700, then only games with both players rated over 1900.
 
If we take the last column as most indicative of how long a game of Arimaa "should" last, we see no increase or decrease over time.  In the early days of Arimaa, there was a pronounced trend to longer and longer games, but in hindsight this can be explained away simply by noting that we weren't very good at Arimaa at first, and the games got longer when they stopped being such blunderfests.
« Last Edit: Jan 8th, 2010, 10:23am by Fritzlein » IP Logged

tize
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Re: Game lengths
« Reply #1 on: Jan 8th, 2010, 12:15pm »
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If we look at the humans column and ignore the value for 2003, we see a weak trend towards shorter games with 2009 as the lowest. This trend doesn't show up in any other column. I think this shows that the new players are slowly outnumbering the old and strong players, with 2009 being a good year when it comes to attracting new players. Hence the big drop of 1.5.
 
Or maybe it's all in the margin or error, And I'm just seeing what I want to see. Smiley
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Fritzlein
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Re: Game lengths
« Reply #2 on: Jan 8th, 2010, 2:05pm »
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One thing I didn't control for was the difference in rating between the two players.  Mismatches naturally result in somewhat shorter games.  If there is a downward trend in the game lengths for natural-conclusion, rated, HvH, 1900+ games, then the reason could be that in the early years those games were all evenly matched, whereas in more recent years some of them have been mismatched.
« Last Edit: Jan 8th, 2010, 2:06pm by Fritzlein » IP Logged

Janzert
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Re: Game lengths
« Reply #3 on: Jan 8th, 2010, 6:07pm »
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Thanks for running this Fritzlein. I think it's actually surprising how stable the length is given the large changes in strategy over that time.
 
Janzert
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Hippo
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Re: Game lengths
« Reply #4 on: Jan 12th, 2010, 5:20am »
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That would be interesting to compare also the lengths of games in WC's (qualification/final).
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