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        Arimaa >> General Discussion >> Predicting Expert Moves
        
(Message started by: kzb52 on Jun 1^st, 2014, 7:01pm)

Title: Predicting Expert Moves
Post by kzb52 on Jun 1^st, 2014, 7:01pm

In this thread - http://arimaa.com/arimaa/forum/cgi/YaBB.cgi?board=gameAnalysis;action=display;num=1393121626
- some bold predictions were made about the rate arimaa players agree each other over the board. Now those predictions are being put to the test! We have selected some recent, high-level games, and are trying to predict the moves of one side. This forum thread is here to collect the results. If anyone else wants to try a few games, go right ahead. I think it's a great way to study top-level play and it's pretty fun! The "rules" are simple:

Open up one of the games here (only if you're sure you've never seen it before or played in it. If you recognize it, skip it and do another).
Look at the board and try to find the best move for the winning side (starting with move 2).
Write it down somewhere.
Compare it to what the 'expert' actually played.
Repeat for all the moves played by the eventual winner.
When you're done, make your guesses available for everyone to see.

This relies heavily on the honor system, no cheating! ;)

Finally, it's ok to complain if you think your guess is better than the expert's choice.

Here is the complete list of games which we'll draw from: http://justpaste.it/fnxd
So far browni3141 and I have done predictions for the first game (which will be posted here at some later time) and I've just finished the second game.

P.S. In the thread I mentioned at the beginning, lightvector said it's possible to predict about 14% of the moves top players pick in games with machine learning. browni3141 guessed 20-30% accuracy is more likely for humans predicting humans. These are the numbers we're starting with.

Title: Re: Predicting Expert Moves
Post by kzb52 on Jun 9^th, 2014, 11:04pm

Game 168366
Hippo - Nombril
Guessing as Nombril (Silver)

kzb52's guesses: http://pastebin.com/UiPur7Wi
[move 8s contains a typo, the horse moves west not east]
browni3141's guesses: http://pastebin.com/3Dr34DM0
(see May 28, 2014 in the chat archive for orginal discussion)

kzb52 and Nombril agreed on 13/49 = 27%
2, 12, 15, 16, 18, 19, 20, 21, 23, 33, 39, 49, 50

browni3141 and Nombril agreed on 13/49 = 27%
2, 6, 13, 18, 19, 21, 25, 26, 33, 35, 39, 49, 50

kzb52 and browni3141 agreed on 14/49 = 28.5%
2, 3, 8, 18, 19, 21, 33, 36, 39, 46, 47, 48, 49, 50

All players agreed on 8 moves (16.3%)
2, 18, 19, 21, 33, 39, 49, 50

There are also a number of moves where one player differed only on the fourth step. On move 36s, Nombril chose a different fourth step. On moves 25s and 26s, kzb52 chose different fourth steps. There are other examples like this, though I don't have the all organized at the moment.

Title: Re: Predicting Expert Moves
Post by harvestsnow on Jun 9^th, 2014, 11:43pm

I also got 13/49 for game 168366:
2 3 6 8 15 18 19 21 22 23 29 33 49 50

I think I missed many defensive options and opted for more adventurous lines, especially in the second part (which I did more quickly). Some of my moves are simply bad. I didn't keep track of the partially correct moves.

http://pastebin.com/iuVWj8gC