How is the prediction score determined

On each game you need to select which player you think will win and how confident you are about it. In addition you need to select the number of moves you think it will take your selected player to win. You can always change your predictions until shortly before the start of the game. Individual predictions are kept confidential, but the overall prediction statistics are displayed to everyone.

After the game is over your predictions will be compared with the actual results to determine your score. On each game points are given for selecting the winning player and for accurately predicting the number of moves.

If the player you selected wins, you will get points based on how confident you were. The more confident you were the more points you will get. But if the player you chose loses then you will lose points. The more confident you were the more points you will lose. The number of points you will gain or lose based on confidence is indicated at the time of entering the predictions. In case of a draw these two numbers are averaged. Thus for a draw you will also lose points but not as much as for perdicting wrong.

If the player you selected wins or draws then, you also get points based on how close the number of moves in the actual game were to what you predicted. The lesser of the two is divided by the greater and mulitipled by 100 (and rounded) to determine the number of points you get. In case of a draw the result is divided by two.

Players can also predict, but in their own games they must select themselves to win and they can select a confidence percentage along with it. The player will gain or lose points based on the the outcome of the game and the chosen confidence percentage as with any other game.

Players cannot select the number of moves on their own games. If a player wins they will get 100 points minus the number of moves it took to win. If the player loses they will get points equal to the number of moves the game took. This encourages a winning player to try and win as fast as possible and it encourages a losing player to try and prolong the game as much as possible. Although after 70 moves a losing player will not get more points for prolonging the game. This is so that a player does not get more points for losing a long (over 70 move) game than for winning. In case of a draw both players get 25 points.

If you don't make a prediction on a game, a penalty of 21 points is deducted for it.

If a game is won or lost by forfeit, it is not included in the score.

The score for all the games is summed to get your final score.

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