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Topic: Move 14 (Read 5063 times) |
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Soter
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Fritzlein's move: 13b hc5e hd5e ec4e Mc3n. Our camel is now threatened...
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| « Last Edit: Jun 11th, 2009, 8:48am by Soter » |
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Simon
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Re: Move 14
« Reply #1 on: Jun 11th, 2009, 10:15am » |
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First impression: Fritzlein's plan is to use both horses to guard the camel hostage while the e keeps our camel away.
Possibilities:
conservative: retreat the camel (+ 1 additional step)
aggressive: what happens if we send the horse to guard the c6 trap (+ 2 additional steps)? (hmm--doesn't look good to me after trying to play that through)
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arimaa_master
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Re: Move 14
« Reply #2 on: Jun 11th, 2009, 10:55am » |
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I suggest threaten/secure/balanced move:
14g Cb2n Cb3n Mc4s Ef4s
threatens to capture the horse
secures our camel
balances our possibilities - camel is safe and we still can attack c6 trap with our horse possibly + cat is in active play too
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| « Last Edit: Jun 11th, 2009, 10:58am by arimaa_master » |
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Simon
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Re: Move 14
« Reply #3 on: Jun 11th, 2009, 11:34am » |
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That looks good compared with my own ideas.... unfortunately it still doesn't impede Fritzlein's apparent plan. I'd expect a response of:
14s ed4s he5e h5s x
End result: we can't stop a swarm on f3, while we can't swarm c6 because our cat + horse + camel is weak against e + dogs. Maybe I'm wrong and we can bring in rabbits to save the day, but even so Fritzlein has the head start, and this plus the fact that we have a horse and dog buried (and one dog inconveniently located where the horses will kill it the moment they have freedom to move off the trap) seems to give Fritzlein a definite advantage.
My impression now is that we are losing.
Anyone see a way out?
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Simon
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Re: Move 14
« Reply #4 on: Jun 11th, 2009, 11:54am » |
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This is a risky move of course, but what about pushing the e3 horse to d3 (+ one extra step (edit: extra step = c to b3))?
A playthrough resulted in exchanging our camel for the horse, while we retained a camel hostage. This seems an improvement given my estimation of our current situation.
edit - my playthrough is stupid, of course he can get that trade and free the camel and then get a horse hostage as well...
edit 2, whoops, no, I'm being too hasty, we have more moves available in part of that playthrough, it's not clear what's going to happen...
...I think it still looks roughly even along this line
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| « Last Edit: Jun 11th, 2009, 12:14pm by Simon » |
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jdb
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Re: Move 14
« Reply #5 on: Jun 11th, 2009, 2:50pm » |
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Clueless says:
14w Ha5s Ha4e Mc4s Ef4s
D:15 02:00:20 5336 Ha5s Ha4e Mc4s Ef4s he5s ed4s he4e rc8e Hb4e Hc4e mg3s Ef3e he3n Re2n de6n cg7s Re1e Dd1e Cb2n De1n
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Simon
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Re: Move 14
« Reply #6 on: Jun 11th, 2009, 4:41pm » |
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The impact of a swarm is too long term for clueless to notice, I think.
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arimaa_master
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Re: Move 14
« Reply #7 on: Jun 12th, 2009, 1:15am » |
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on Jun 11th, 2009, 11:34am, Simon wrote:
My impression now is that we are losing.
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That was my impression right after our 13th move :/
I saw (and voted) only one good possibility 13g he3w Ee4s hd3s Mc3e - unfortunatelly I was outnumbered with others.
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arimaa_master
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Re: Move 14
« Reply #8 on: Jun 12th, 2009, 1:22am » |
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on Jun 11th, 2009, 11:34am, Simon wrote:That looks good compared with my own ideas.... unfortunately it still doesn't impede Fritzlein's apparent plan. I'd expect a response of:
14s ed4s he5e h5s x
End result: we can't stop a swarm on f3, while we can't swarm c6 because our cat + horse + camel is weak against e + dogs. Maybe I'm wrong and we can bring in rabbits to save the day, but even so Fritzlein has the head start, and this plus the fact that we have a horse and dog buried (and one dog inconveniently located where the horses will kill it the moment they have freedom to move off the trap) seems to give Fritzlein a definite advantage.
My impression now is that we are losing.
Anyone see a way out?
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You are right - we are pretty bad along those lines and we will definitely need another move.
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arimaa_master
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Re: Move 14
« Reply #9 on: Jun 12th, 2009, 1:24am » |
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on Jun 11th, 2009, 11:54am, Simon wrote:This is a risky move of course, but what about pushing the e3 horse to d3 (+ one extra step (edit: extra step = c to b3))?
A playthrough resulted in exchanging our camel for the horse, while we retained a camel hostage. This seems an improvement given my estimation of our current situation.
edit - my playthrough is stupid, of course he can get that trade and free the camel and then get a horse hostage as well...
edit 2, whoops, no, I'm being too hasty, we have more moves available in part of that playthrough, it's not clear what's going to happen...
...I think it still looks roughly even along this line |
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Great move! I think it is much better than my suggestion.
So I support yours 14g Ef4w he3w Ee4s Cb2n too!
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chessandgo
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Re: Move 14
« Reply #10 on: Jun 12th, 2009, 6:26am » |
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We can't be losing yet, unless camel hostages were discovered to be bad while I was away  Looks like one of these situations where gold gets a camel hostage and silver some head start in the race. I read that most players valued camel hostage as highly as a Cat or even as a Dog, and I doubt silver's head start can be worth nearly as much. If we achieve decent hostaging position (with Eg3), we can keep our M on c3, and silver's phant will more or less be tied to staying on d3, otherwise we could get back the e3 square with the M. So there might be some kind of central deadlock, and we have a free H to attack c6 with. Looks very unclear overall if this secnario of camel hostage vs f3 takeover happens.
after 14g Ef4w he3w Ee4s Cb2n silver has 14s Mc4n ed4w mg3nn, and I don't think we have anything else to hope for than a horse exchange.
I like 14g Cb2nn Mc3s, and I think that allowing 15s m to f2 e to d3 would be terrible for us, as our only camel hostage hope would be something like mf1 Ef2, where silver could get hold of e3, f4 and g3, which is much worse than a standard mg2 (or h3) Eg3 position, where we only leave e3 and f4 to silver. So 14g Cb2nn Mc3s Ef4e/Ef4s looks good to me. For instance 14s he5es ed4s cg7s 15g mg3s Eg4s Ha5ne. Our plan is H to c7 and advance R's (at least) along 'a (and b' ?) file(s). It's not clear to which extent silver can make progress as his phant should not be able to go for c6 capture wihtout allowing our caMel helping an f3 capture (we have to be very careful not allow H vs r trade in the future for instance if silver gets a r on f3 or f4 ... but we should be able to manage it easily I think)
Hoping I'm not too rusty and missing too many things.
Jean
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chessandgo
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Re: Move 14
« Reply #11 on: Jun 12th, 2009, 6:31am » |
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also I'm not sure to which extent m to f2 was possible on 13s, but it might have been a big blow for us. And it'd be a bit strange if we couldn't manage to get hold of a central horse hostage with a different 13g perhaps.
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chessandgo
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Re: Move 14
« Reply #12 on: Jun 12th, 2009, 6:51am » |
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oh, and while I'm at it, a few more random thoughts on the type of position obtained after 14g Cb2nn Mc3s Eg4e 14s he5es ed4s cg7s 15g mg3s Eg4s Ha5ne for example:
- Silver will likely prevent H to c7, which would be a blow for him, with a blockade on b7. In which case we might consider flipping the rb7 (or cb7) to b5 and then either try to drag it towards c3 or dig a way for our horse among silver's rabbits towards c7.
- silver will likely benefit from having a rabbit on f3, so my 14s is probably bad, and getting rf7 to f3 before h (or rather d?) to f4 likely saves times for silver
- hostaging the m on g2 rather than h3 allows us to keep the h-line free, with a Dh4 allowed to move, and which might be able to dig a way for rabbit through h-line in the future when silver have depleted his defense to swarm f3. Does not look like much yet, but if we expect a deadlocked position, any kind of lever might make the difference later on.
so here is another random line (EDITED, thanks warren):
14g Ef4e Cb2n Cb3n Mc4s 14s rf7sss ed4s 15g mg3s Eg4s Ha5ne 15s rb8s rc8w rf3s rf7s
Looks complicated (in any case definitely not hopeless).
silver can also envision flipping our Re2 and dragging it to f6.
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EDIT : wow, I just discovered the "get move list" button, so here is another random line fwiw ...
14g Ef4e Cb2n Cb3n Mc4s
14s rf7s rf6s rf5s ed4s
15g mg3s Eg4s Ha5n Ha6e
15s rf4s rf8s rb8s rc8w
16g Hb6w rb7s rb6s Ha6e
16s rb8s ra8e de6e df6s
17g Rb1n Rb2n Hb6w rb7s
17s df5s cg7s rf7s rf6s
18g ra7n Ha6n Ha7e Ra2n
18s
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| « Last Edit: Jun 14th, 2009, 5:57am by chessandgo » |
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arimaa_master
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Re: Move 14
« Reply #13 on: Jun 13th, 2009, 3:25am » |
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on Jun 12th, 2009, 6:51am, chessandgo wrote:oh, and while I'm at it, a few more random thoughts on the type of position obtained after 14g Cb2nn Mc3s Eg4e 14s he5es ed4s cg7s 15g mg3s Eg4s Ha5ne for example:
- Silver will likely prevent H to c7, which would be a blow for him, with a blockade on b7. In which case we might consider flipping the rb7 (or cb7) to b5 and then either try to drag it towards c3 or dig a way for our horse among silver's rabbits towards c7.
- silver will likely benefit from having a rabbit on f3, so my 14s is probably bad, and getting rf7 to f3 before h (or rather d?) to f4 likely saves times for silver
- hostaging the m on g2 rather than h3 allows us to keep the h-line free, with a Dh4 allowed to move, and which might be able to dig a way for rabbit through h-line in the future when silver have depleted his defense to swarm f3. Does not look like much yet, but if we expect a deadlocked position, any kind of lever might make the difference later on.
so here is another random line:
14g Ef4w he3w Ee4e Cb2n 14s rf7sss ed4s 15g mg3s Eg4s Ha5ne 15s rb8s rc8w rf3s rf7s
Looks complicated (in any case definitely not hopeless).
silver can also envision flipping our Re2 and dragging it to f6.
...
EDIT : wow, I just discovered the "get move list" button, so here is another random line fwiw ...
14g Ef4e Cb2n Cb3n Mc4s
14s rf7s rf6s rf5s ed4s
15g mg3s Eg4s Ha5n Ha6e
15s rf4s rf8s rb8s rc8w
16g Hb6w rb7s rb6s Ha6e
16s rb8s ra8e de6e df6s
17g Rb1n Rb2n Hb6w rb7s
17s df5s cg7s rf7s rf6s
18g ra7n Ha6n Ha7e Ra2n
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Yeah that looks quite good - now I cannot see that deadly swarm + we have play around the c6 trap - so for now I support your
14g Ef4e Cb2n Cb3n Mc4s
(And I am eagerly awaiting Simon's conrete lines how to swarm and prevent our play around c6 trap )
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Adanac
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Re: Move 14
« Reply #14 on: Jun 13th, 2009, 6:45am » |
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on Jun 12th, 2009, 6:51am, chessandgo wrote:
EDIT : wow, I just discovered the "get move list" button, so here is another random line fwiw ...
14g Ef4e Cb2n Cb3n Mc4s
14s rf7s rf6s rf5s ed4s
15g mg3s Eg4s Ha5n Ha6e
15s rf4s rf8s rb8s rc8w
16g Hb6w rb7s rb6s Ha6e
16s rb8s ra8e de6e df6s
17g Rb1n Rb2n Hb6w rb7s
17s df5s cg7s rf7s rf6s
18g ra7n Ha6n Ha7e Ra2n
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The Plan Window and Get Move List buttons in V2 don't work for me  So I'm still doing it by hand.
After that 15s I would prefer 16g Hf2n rf4w Hf3n to free our horse rather than slower fight in the northwest. Of course, if Fritzlein places his rabbit on f3 and horse on f4 with his 15s move then we're forced to fight in the northwest. I'm not too optimistic about this line, but I don't know if we have anything better.
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