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Topic: 2015 Move 12g (Read 7031 times) |
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deep_blue
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2015 Move 12g
« on: Dec 19th, 2015, 5:25pm » |
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Sharp made its move. Ideas?
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aaaa
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Re: 2015 Move 12g
« Reply #1 on: Dec 19th, 2015, 11:39pm » |
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Seems like the choice is between the horse frame and the horse flip.
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Lion
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Re: 2015 Move 12g
« Reply #2 on: Dec 19th, 2015, 11:40pm » |
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We need to try to work out whether framing the horse wins outright or not--and I think we ought to be able to calculate this one essentially to the end. I see this as follows.
1. We permanently frame the S horse.
2. Comp permanently hostages our G Horse (cc7e rb7e hb6n mc6w), but his own S horse will need many moves to get back into the game.
3. In the meantime, we might attempt to rotate out our G Elephant (I need some more time to figure out if we have enough time for this, but this looks probable at first glance.
4. Alternatively, we may consider blockading the S camel on b6 and rotating out our G camel (we might have enough time for this, too).
In other words, framing the S horse looks winning.
If this turns out not to be the case, we may consider getting our G horse away from a6 (Mb5e Ra5e Ha6s Dd2n). However, then both of our b5 and g5 G Rabbits will face imminent danger.
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Lion
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Re: 2015 Move 12g
« Reply #3 on: Dec 19th, 2015, 11:41pm » |
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That's right, there is also the horse flip to consider! 
I imagine then the comp will play mc6w ee3w ed3n ed4w. Next, if we capture the g5 horse, the comp will likely capture the c2 cat while threatening both the a6 Horse and d2 Dog (hb4s ec4s ec3e Cc2nX). This looks to be losing. However, there are also other possibilities for us instead of capturing the g5 horse, but we should probably calculate the horse frame first.
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| « Last Edit: Dec 20th, 2015, 12:03am by Lion » |
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SilverMitt
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Re: 2015 Move 12g
« Reply #4 on: Dec 20th, 2015, 12:09am » |
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It seems like the long-term evaluation after 12g f3:H 12s Cd7 bc7 Hb7 Mb6 is complicated, though it makes me uncomfortable at first glance, as silver need not even try to force anything immediately.
What I don't like about the horse flip is that it sort of saves time for silver in terms of going after the a6 horse. But if it tactically works out as a trade, maybe it's our best option.
I'm curious about a retreat along the lines of 12g Mb4 ab5 Ha5:R now that the silver camel has swung west.
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aaaa
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Re: 2015 Move 12g
« Reply #5 on: Dec 20th, 2015, 12:29am » |
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on Dec 20th, 2015, 12:09am, SilverMitt wrote:| I'm curious about a retreat along the lines of 12g Mb4 ab5 Ha5:R now that the silver camel has swung west. |
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Silver could simply defend against the frame in the east and all I see then is Gold being behind in the rabbit-pulling contest with nothing to show for it.
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browni3141
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Re: 2015 Move 12g
« Reply #6 on: Dec 20th, 2015, 3:56am » |
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I think any 12g horse retreat concedes clear advantage to silver per aaaa's reasoning.
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Hufflepup
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Re: 2015 Move 12g
« Reply #7 on: Dec 20th, 2015, 7:06am » |
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Flipping the horse could lead to 13g: mc6w ee3n ee4w ed4w.
We cannot take the eastern horse next turn because of 13s: ec4n Mb5e ec5s hb4n (We cannot prevent camel capture next turn). There is no other 13g in this scenario which will stop us losing at least a cat with no material compensation. Silver also has decent follow up threats around both C3 and C6, and we don't have any. For this reason I don't think the horse flip is a viable option.
If we framed the horse then:
12s cc7e rb7e hb6n mc6w (Taking horse hostage)
If we don't want to lose the horse next turn or break the frame we have to play:
13g Mb5e X X X
The trouble is there are no other steps that would stop something like:
13s: ee3n ee4w ed4w df6w (Sacrificing the framed horse)
There is now no 13g/14g that we can play which will stop us losing at least a horse. This still looks a lot better than the situation after the horse flip though.
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| « Last Edit: Dec 20th, 2015, 7:06am by Hufflepup » |
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aaaa
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Re: 2015 Move 12g
« Reply #8 on: Dec 20th, 2015, 11:27am » |
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Framing the horse and then immediately giving it up with E->c5 after m->b6 might work out OK, but things would immediately get desperate as Silver is bound to take over the southeast trap while also being ahead in any goal race. The camel helping with the defense would either be futile or an extremely complicated affair.
12g Mb5s hb6s Mb4s hb5s might be one way to try for a horse trade.
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Lion
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Re: 2015 Move 12g
« Reply #9 on: Dec 20th, 2015, 8:59pm » |
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on Dec 20th, 2015, 7:06am, Hufflepup wrote:Flipping the horse could lead to 13g: mc6w ee3n ee4w ed4w.
If we framed the horse then:
...
13s: ee3n ee4w ed4w df6w (Sacrificing the framed horse)
There is now no 13g/14g that we can play which will stop us losing at least a horse. This still looks a lot better than the situation after the horse flip though.
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I am not convinced this is the case.
13g. Mb5e Dd2n Rg5e X
13s. ee3n ee4w ed4w df6w
14g. Ef4w Ee4w Ed4w Mc6w
Next, silver can't capture the horse as then we could capture the silver camel.
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aaaa
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Re: 2015 Move 12g
« Reply #10 on: Dec 20th, 2015, 10:07pm » |
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Lion, if Gold were to defend the horse by putting the camel on c5, it needs to be followed up with a rabbit step to b5. Otherwise, Silver could win the camel by fencing it with his own camel on b5 and his elephant on c4 or d5 (occupying the vacant b6 with the gold horse then would only create a false-protection pattern).
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Lion
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Re: 2015 Move 12g
« Reply #11 on: Dec 20th, 2015, 11:41pm » |
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That's a good point, but maybe we can get away with it.
13g. Mb5e Dd2n Rg5e Ra5e
13s. ee3n ee4w ed4w df6w
14g. Mc5e Md5n dd6w Ef4w
It gets complicated after this, but perhaps we could end up losing only a dog in what follows.
Edit: never mind, we would lose the camel here. Hmm, I guess the computer really did find a good move.
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| « Last Edit: Dec 20th, 2015, 11:46pm by Lion » |
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SilverMitt
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Re: 2015 Move 12g
« Reply #12 on: Dec 21st, 2015, 12:15pm » |
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I actually don't think that silver has a great tactical option after 12g f3:H 12s Cd7 bc7 Hb7 Mb6 13g Mc5 ab5 gh5 Dd3, as something like 13s Ec4 Dfe6 Hx gives us a great attack in the east after, say, 14g Mf5 Hg4.
It may become a maneuvering battle, with silver having a long-term plan of getting the b7 horse active, while we would need an objective of our own, perhaps trying to rotate out the g3 horse start a fight around c6. We'd have to be alert for potential tactics on every move, and I'm still not sure on the long-term evaluation, but I think there is a lot of upside here.
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| « Last Edit: Dec 21st, 2015, 1:06pm by SilverMitt » |
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half_integer
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Re: 2015 Move 12g
« Reply #13 on: Dec 21st, 2015, 6:08pm » |
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Now that I've finally had some time to look at this move, I want to be optimistic. Sharpvector not continuing to threaten the rabbit directly may mean that we have exposed a greater threat in the west. For those who were worried about the silver camel coming west, it appears that silver sees the situation the same way.
If we frame the horse, I don't think we can expect to rotate out the elephant. To do so would require two more pieces than we have at the f3 trap and I don't see us taking the number of full moves it would take to set up the rotation. I count at least 16 steps to carry out a rotation. So I think that a horse frame gives us an elephant deadlock at f3, with the important note that we are freer to leave than silver is.
I'm not fond of the horse flip; I agree that it just seems to save steps for silver. And having the horse out of play for a while (on b7) is worth almost as much (or more, depending on tactics). If moving the b6 horse is a possibility, then I think a double pull to Mc4 should be considered as an alternate.
I don't like Mc5 Rb5 Ha5 X because silver pulling the rabbit to b6 appears to be indefensible resulting in a pinned gold camel.
I was going to suggest looking at Mc5:H Hb6:R (pulling the rabbit is optional), but 12s Ed5 Dd5e5 seems to lead to unavoidable gold camel loss plus horse hostage or horse trade - so not a good idea  .
So having worked through these moves, the horse frame seems like the only acceptable move to me, and I also think we should not leave f3 with our elephant before silver does, sacrificing the horse. If it goes as expected with a horse hostage at c6, I still think we can protect the camel with Mc5 Rb5 and the result will perhaps be a horse trade; I don't know who will come out positionally at the end. Maybe we can start another attack in the east at the end, while silver's strongest three pieces are all grouped in the west. (The a5 rabbit would presumably also be lost after a horse trade and gold camel fleeing the west.)
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Hippo
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Re: 2015 Move 12g
« Reply #14 on: Dec 22nd, 2015, 11:25am » |
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Yes I agree we would not have time to capture east horse after the horse flip. And horse frame is good enough compensation for the horse hostage with hb7. The situation with Rb5 Mc5 looks very safe and may be the stalemate situation could allow slow rotation of the elephant out of the frame.
I like the frame, especially with the camel west and horse going to burry itself. Even when the silver horse activates, I cannot see it beeing good strongest free piece.
OK I cannot see fast enough rotation, but our position would be solid.
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