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Arimaa Forum Move 11


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   Move 11
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   Author  Topic: Move 11  (Read 2926 times)
Fritzlein
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Re: Move 11
« Reply #30 on: Aug 21st, 2007, 8:57pm »
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For the record:
 
   .    .    .    .    .    .    .    .    .    .    1.  2.  3.  4.  5.  6.  7.  8.
1. hg6e hh6s hh5s hh4s (eastern horse charge)   .     -   7   6   9   7   8  10  10
2. ed4w ec4w Hc3n md6n (pull horse, retreat camel)    3   -   6   7   7   6   9   9
3. ed4w ec4n Hc3n md6e (pull horse, E north, M east)  5   5   -   6   7   5  10  11
4. ed4w ec4w Hc3n md6e (pull horse, camel east) .     1   3   5   -   5   6   9   8
5. ed4s ed3e ee3w De2n (pull central dog)  .    .     3   3   4   4   -   6   8   9
6. ed4w ec4w Hc3n dd8s (pull horse, advance dog).     1   4   5   3   4   -   9   8
7. ed4w ec4w hb6w rb7w (shift EHR west)    .    .     0   1   1   1   2   1   -   5
8. hb6w rb7w cc7w md6n (shift HRC west, retreat M)    0   1   0   1   1   1   4   -
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99of9
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  toby_hudson  


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Re: Move 11
« Reply #31 on: Aug 21st, 2007, 9:07pm »
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on Aug 21st, 2007, 8:43pm, Fritzlein wrote:
Hopefully few or none of the remaining eligible six were actually going to vote in the next twelve hours.

There's about a 70% chance I would have voted in 8 hours time (I've voted every previous time), but I still haven't done any proper analysis, so the group decision may be better without me!
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99of9
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  toby_hudson  


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Re: Move 11
« Reply #32 on: Aug 21st, 2007, 9:12pm »
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on Aug 21st, 2007, 8:43pm, Fritzlein wrote:
For better or for worse, this raucous crowd decided on the wildest-looking of the eight choices, by a slim margin over my favored play-it-safe approach.

7-3 isn't that slim?  I guess it's unlikely we would have had 4 more voters all coming in on the other side.
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Fritzlein
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Re: Move 11
« Reply #33 on: Aug 21st, 2007, 9:30pm »
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Sorry I cut you off 99of9.  Embarassed Embarassed Embarassed
 
7-3 isn't that slim, but if two more folks had voted for option #3 ahead of the actual top two, then it could have won outright (unless it was passed by #4 in the mean time).  What's more, if two more ballots had come in with relative preferences
 
#3, #2, #1
 
and
 
#2, #3, #1
 
it would have created a circular preference, which could have come out any which way among the top three.  (I don't fully grasp the tiebreak method.)  If you thought the horse charge was terrible, and you were going to put it at the bottom of your ballot, then only one voter in addition to you could have altered the outcome.  Only if you tell me that you would have put #3 somewhere below #1 on your ballot will I be able to sleep at night.
« Last Edit: Aug 21st, 2007, 10:06pm by Fritzlein » IP Logged

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