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Topic: Move 19 (Read 5282 times) |
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RonWeasley
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Re: Move 19
« Reply #15 on: Dec 14th, 2007, 7:10am » |
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After 20w Ec5w Eb5s ha5e Cc2e, I was thinking 20b Ha3s mb3w rc3w dd7s.
The strategy is to give up the camel hostage while our horse drags his dog to c6. Eventually, silver frees its elephant by putting d->c4 and h->d3. I'd expect the rabbit to stay on c3. Gold's counterplay might have to be a camel attack on c6 to save the dog and force a camel trade, which may result in an exchange of the gold dog for the silver rabbit. I don't think gold has enough time to save the dog and counter at f6.
After 20b Rb2w mb3s Rb1n mb2e I think gold can smother the camel, reframe the rabbit, and free its own camel and elephant beginning with 21w Eb4e Da4e Db4s Ha3n.
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RonWeasley
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Re: Move 19
« Reply #16 on: Dec 14th, 2007, 9:53am » |
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on Dec 13th, 2007, 6:15pm, mistre wrote:I am not an official member of the Mob, but I have been watching this game closely. Mostly I have stayed out of the discussion because I have trouble reading the moves, but I think I have it figured out now.
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Just a reminder to mistre and others, you don't have to register as a mobster to comment on any of the moves. Registering (see the About topic) simply gets you on the list to vote. You don't have to vote if you're on the list, but you'll get the notices. If you don't want to vote anymore, just send me a message and I'll take you off the list.
This is supposed to be fun and inclusive. It's a mob!
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Soter
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Re: Move 19
« Reply #17 on: Dec 16th, 2007, 9:59am » |
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What if after 19b ha4n da3n Hb3w mb4s chessandgo reacts with
20w Ec5w Da4e Db4e De1n
or
20w Ec5w Da4e Db4e Eb5s
?
Quote:| After 20w Ec5w Eb5s ha5e Cc2e, I was thinking 20b Ha3s mb3w rc3w dd7s. |
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Looks like a good move to me. However, doesn't 21w Rb2e Ha2e rb3e Hb2n make it worse for us? Or should we expect camel ( or camel and horse ) development in the east ?
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Fritzlein
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Re: Move 19
« Reply #18 on: Dec 16th, 2007, 11:23am » |
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on Dec 13th, 2007, 8:38am, arimaa_master wrote:| I think bomb could be useful here. |
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Yes, given the way I hang pieces in my live games, I definitely could use a helping hand from a computer.
I set Bomb loose on our current position. At low ply Bomb just wants to run with the camel, but at 10 steps Bomb switches to 19b Me3n ed3e Me4n ee3n. It seems to me that this camel push is easily refuted with 20w Ec5e Me5e Mf5e Mg5s, when we have inadequate compensation for our lost rabbit.
At 11 through 14 steps depth Bomb prefers 19b mb3e Me3n ed3e rc3e. This is much more plausible, but I end up with Gold even or slightly ahead after a couple of lines.
19b mb4e Me3n ed3e rc3e
. 20w De1w Dd1n rd3n Dd2n
. . 20b mc4w mb4n Me4n ee3n
. . . 21w Ec5e Me5e Mf5e Mg5s
. . 20b mc4w Me4n ee3n dd7s
. . . 21w Hb3e Ec5s mb4s Ec4w
. . . . 21b Me5e ee4n Mf5n Mf6x ee5e
. . . . . 22w Hc3n mb3e mc3x Eb4s Eb3n
If it turns out that our dog-pull-horse-push move retains some advantage for us, I will favor it over chasing Bomb's camel, but it is nice to have another option which is at least somewhat playable.
Then I let Bomb think all day about our contemplated move 19b, and at 16 steps depth it wanted to reply with 20w Ec5w Eb5s De1w Dd1n, which appears to leave the Gold dog in trouble. The trouble is that Bomb thinks Gold is winning after giving up a dog capture to gain a camel hostage! In some lines that might be true, but I think in this case we are at least equal, and our framed rabbit is the beginning of a swarm rather than a liability. So Bomb is not much help from that position.
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Fritzlein
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Re: Move 19
« Reply #19 on: Dec 16th, 2007, 12:29pm » |
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on Dec 13th, 2007, 4:25pm, Soter wrote:Maybe
Rb2w mb3s rc3w mb2e
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Wow, I thought I could refute this, and played a bunch of line with Bomb's help to prove it. However, Bomb was not much help, and after 45 minutes I saw with my own eyes a refutation to my refutation. Even in a sharp position, I'm not sure how much Bomb helps, because it misses all the "quiet" moves.
In summary, I think we are fine after your suggestion, Soter. I include the wasted analysis in my tree to express my shame:
19b ha4n Da3n Hb3w mb4s
. 20w Ec5w Eb5s ha5e Cc2e
. . 20b Rb2w mb3s rc3w mb2e
. . . 21w rb3e Eb4s Cf2w Me3e
. . . . 21b hb5s Cd2s mc2e rc3s
. . . . . 22w Eb3s rc2n Eb2e Ha3e
. . . . . . 22b Ce2e md2e me2n De1n
. . . . . . . 23w Ec2e De2s Ed2e Rc1n
. . . . . . . . 23b me3n me4w md4w dd7s (=+)
. . . 21w rb3e Eb4s Cf2w De1w
. . . . 21b Me3n ed3e hb5e hc5s
. . . . . 22w Eb3s Eb2n mc2w Rc1n
. . . . . . 22b dd7s dd6s dd5s dd4s (-+)
. . . . 21b Me3n ed3e rc3e hb5e
. . . . . 22w Eb3s Eb2n mc2w Rc1n
. . . . . . 22b Me4n ee3n Me5n ee4n
. . . . . . . 23w rd3w rc3x Cd2n Ce2n Da4e
. . . . . . . . 23b Me6e Mf6x ee5n hc5s ee6s
. . . . . . . . . 24w Eb3e Ec3w hc4s hc3x Ha3n (+=)
. . . . . . 22b hc5s Me4n ee3n dd7s
. . . . . . . 23w rd3e Cd2n re3e rf3x Ce2n
. . . . . . . . 23b Me5e ee4n Mf5n Mf6x ee5e
. . . . . . . . . 24w Eb3e Ec3w hc4s hc3x Da4e (+=)
. . . . . . 22b hc5s hc4s Rc2s hc3s
. . . . . . . 23w rd3n Cd2n Da4e Db4e
. . . . . . . . 23b hc2e Rc1n Rc2n hd2w
. . . . . . . . . 24w rd4n Dc4e Rc3n Dd1w (+-)
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Fritzlein
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Re: Move 19
« Reply #20 on: Dec 16th, 2007, 7:07pm » |
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on Dec 13th, 2007, 6:37pm, Soter wrote:19b hg6e hh6w Rh5n dd7s
20w Hg3e Hh3n Hh4n Rh6n
20b hg6e hh6w Rh7s rh8s
21w De1n Me3n Hh5w Hh4w(?!)
Does 20w look realistic? If yes, then maybe blocking the rabbit (rh8s replaces dd7s) is wiser? |
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I think your 20w is indeed realistic, and to be reckoned with. However, if we haven't yet committed our camel to b3, the gold horse on g3 must still be cautious about becoming active. I think your 21w could be refuted with 21b mb4e mc4e md4n md5e. If Gold is going to advance his horse, he might want to use a step with his elephant to delay the silver camel crossing, although it is difficult to keep the silver camel entirely out of mischief.
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RonWeasley
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Re: Move 19
« Reply #21 on: Dec 17th, 2007, 9:58am » |
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We're discussing 19b ha4n Da3n Hb3w mb4s versus 19b hg6e hh6w Rh5n dd7s. Last call for comments.
Start the vote Tuesday morning.
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Soter
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Re: Move 19
« Reply #22 on: Dec 17th, 2007, 10:59am » |
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Ron and others, do you think that other moves from "directly threaten the gold rabbit" family ( apart from 19b hg6e hh6w Rh5n dd7s ) - namely, 19b hg6e hh6w Rh5s rh8s and 19b hg6e hh6w Rh5s rg7e should be included ?
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| « Last Edit: Dec 17th, 2007, 11:00am by Soter » |
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RonWeasley
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Re: Move 19
« Reply #23 on: Dec 17th, 2007, 11:17am » |
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Yes. All of those options should be included. Voters should be aware that even if the h5 rabbit pull moves are not your first choice, your relative ranking of them is important. If they win, you may be the deciding vote as to which fourth step wins.
I'm expecting voters will rank all the rabbit pull moves consecutively, although they don't have to. This has the effect of ranking them as a block and we can see how voters prefer the block to other candidates. If you really don't have a preference among them, you can even rank them all equally, literally treating them as a block.
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Soter
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Re: Move 19
« Reply #24 on: Dec 17th, 2007, 3:56pm » |
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One more thing - provided that 19b ha4n Da3n Hb3w mb4s emerges victorious from the election, do you consider replies like 20w Ec5w Da4e Db4e De1n and 20w Ec5w Da4e Db4e Eb5s plausible? If you do, are they dangerous ? I'd try to analyse it, but I'm in a hurry...
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mdk
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Re: Move 19
« Reply #25 on: Dec 17th, 2007, 10:03pm » |
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on Dec 17th, 2007, 3:56pm, Soter wrote:One more thing - provided that 19b ha4n Da3n Hb3w mb4s emerges victorious from the election, do you consider replies like 20w Ec5w Da4e Db4e De1n and 20w Ec5w Da4e Db4e Eb5s plausible? If you do, are they dangerous ? I'd try to analyse it, but I'm in a hurry...
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19b ha4n Da3n Hb3w mb4s
. 20w Ec5w Da4e Db4e Eb5s
. . 20b ed3n Dc4n ed4w ha5e
or
. . 20b ha5e cc7w cb7s hb5e
both seem like plausible responses although someone should probably double check because i haven't had that much time to look at them carefully
unfortunately my time is very limited and i can't check the other move right now
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Fritzlein
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Re: Move 19
« Reply #26 on: Dec 18th, 2007, 8:27am » |
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on Dec 14th, 2007, 7:10am, RonWeasley wrote:After 20w Ec5w Eb5s ha5e Cc2e, I was thinking 20b Ha3s mb3w rc3w dd7s.
The strategy is to give up the camel hostage while our horse drags his dog to c6. Eventually, silver frees its elephant by putting d->c4 and h->d3. I'd expect the rabbit to stay on c3. Gold's counterplay might have to be a camel attack on c6 to save the dog and force a camel trade, which may result in an exchange of the gold dog for the silver rabbit. I don't think gold has enough time to save the dog and counter at f6. |
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Gold can also contest c6 with his horse, as in
19b ha4n Da3n Hb3w mb4s
20w Ec5w Eb5s ha5e Cc2e
20b Ha3s mb3w rc3w dd7s
21w rb3e Eb4s Rb2e Hg3n
21b hb5w ha5n Da4n dd6s
22w Hg4n Hg5w Hf5w He5n
In some lines we end up losing MR to get HD, which I think is a disadvantage to us.
This is not to say that 19b ha4n Da3n Hb3w mb4s is refuted. In the above line Soter's suggested 20b looks adequate. I'm just pointing out for this line and ones similar we can't directly win the dog in exchange for the camel hostage, because chessandgo's other horse has time to defend; it is more complicated and unclear than that.
It looks like I won't have time to build a full tree before this vote. It looks like the Mob will be thrown back on intuition for the coming vote, which isn't all bad.
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RonWeasley
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Re: Move 19
« Reply #27 on: Dec 18th, 2007, 9:15am » |
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I'm trying to start the vote, but the voting site is not working. Looks like they're "improving" it. I will keep trying.
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Fritzlein
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Re: Move 19
« Reply #28 on: Dec 18th, 2007, 12:44pm » |
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Thanks for getting the vote going despite the issues on the CIVS server.
I noticed that you have departed from policy of including every suggested move in the vote. I have no problems with this, since I would give a lower rank to all the other moves I suggested and you omitted. In fact, I prefer a less cluttered ballot to make voting seem less burdensome. This procedure is sort of in keeping with previous discussions about allowing people to withdraw moves they suggested but no longer like, and/or only including suggestions on the ballot which are somebody's favorite.
Out of curiosity, though, will you be generally not including all suggestions, or was this time special because you sensed other suggestions wouldn't get any support?
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RonWeasley
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Re: Move 19
« Reply #29 on: Dec 18th, 2007, 4:00pm » |
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I tried to include any move suggestion that had at least one supporter. Suggestions that were rejected by their originators and not championed by anybody else looked like dead candidates to me. This was the case with the horse flip, the dog and horse pull, and bomb's move.
In the future, clear statements about withdrawing a suggested move or emphasizing support for a set of moves are welcome from any mobster. Even if you don't offer new analysis.
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