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Fritzlein
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7s
« Reply #15 on: Jun 1st, 2010, 6:55am » |
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7s
The Mob finally played 7g Dg^Hg<vE> after twelve and a half days, paring down their reserve almost to nine days. I looked back at a couple of critical moves from the 2007 Mob game: 28s when there was a three-way tie with a re-vote, and 35s when there was an extremely unstable tactical situation. In both of those cases the Mob moved in ten days. I am at a loss to explain the Mob's slow decision on 7g. Perhaps a complex situation delayed the first vote, and then they needed a tiebreaking revote as well?
I will definitely not move quickly in response. The Mob's elephant step completely changes the strategic picture by giving up the threat to my b6-horse while creating threats against my camel and my d4-horse. I can't immediately see through the ramifications, but I am afraid the move was strong.
...
Apparently the Mob didn't waste its long think. That one step to centralize its elephant puts a kink in all my eastern plans, yet doesn't stray far enough east to open up the west for me. I can't occupy b3 with either of my horses, or drag the b3-cat to b4, or occupy g3 with my camel. Obvious-looking plans that involve moving my d4-horse to f4 seem to falter because my camel can be pushed to g4. I gave a look to 7s Hd>>Devv, in order to give my camel an extra step of protection from the Mob's elephant, but 8g EDevv seems too strong a reply. I could certainly retreat my camel with 7s Hd>>>M^, but that seems so passive I fear the Mob would have time to pull a rabbit with 8g DgvHf>HaRv. I could pull the Mob's h-rabbit in response, but it is hard to find an advantage for me in the rabbit-pulling race.
At the moment my only two candidate moves are 7s Hd>>>M< to deny the Mob's elephant any good crossing move, and 7s MvDM^Cgv to try to make the Mob's elephant commit to the east while I still have a second horse to help attack in the west. In the latter line I would be playing with fire after 8g E>>EM> 8s HbvvHCv, so I need a closer look before taking such a chance.
...
The tactics just don't seem to be working out for me to move my central horse east. When both my camel and horse are over there, it is too fat a target for the Mob's elephant. Therefore I have reluctantly decided to pull the Mob's dog with my camel. For my fourth step it turns out that advancing my e7-dog is slightly more natural than advancing my g8-cat.
I wish that I could secure any kind of safe advantage, but the type of game I chose (and the Mob's solid play) isn't leading to safety for me. It is the very nature of my flank camel strategy that I'm trying to lure the Mob's elephant into a futile, time-losing crossing with its elephant. My camel is bait, which will necessarily include some stomach-churning lines. If the Mob decides that it wants to take my camel hostage in the east, I must accept that, and act violently in the west to get sufficient compensation.
At the start of the game, I had envisioned getting the Mob's horse hostage with my elephant before activating my camel. If I had achieved my dream position I would be threatening to capture a horse in exchange for the camel hostage, so the Mob's elephant would not be able to cross. Alas, I felt called to more aggressive play, so that now my western compensation can only come in the form of an attack against the c3-trap. In some lines I must commit my b6-horse to the attack, which also offers it as a hostage to the Mob's camel if their elephant comes home to help secure the area.
To play this position well from either side will require fine judgment of wild, tactical races. Unfortunately, that should be exactly the Mob's strength, with many eyes (not to mention diverse bots) to examine crazy lines. I honestly can't tell who is winning this position objectively, but regardless of who is wining on the board, I have played into the Mob's strength. In such a position, I am much more likely to blunder tactically than the Mob is. My problem traces directly back to my decision to advance my second horse on move 5s rather than playing for an elephant holding horse hostage; it looks like I'm getting what I deserve.
Of course, I won't let my complete uncertainty about the position deter me from talking trash in the game chat...
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Fritzlein
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8g
« Reply #16 on: Jun 1st, 2010, 6:55am » |
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8g
The Mob has an obvious threat to push my horse into c3 with 8g EH<v, but apparently 8s DM^> either forces the Mob to release my horse with a loss of time, or to lose a dog while securing my horse hostage with their camel. Chessandgo has said that a camel holding a horse hostage can be worth a whole horse, but I don't think this is one of those positions. The Mob is far too materialistic to give up a dog for a horse hostage that doesn't pay off within the analysis horizon.
Instead the Mob might use two steps to threaten my horse and two steps to save its dog: 8g EH<Hf>Dg>. But the dog has not retreated far enough, so I will just secure it on h5 with my camel, again generating a capture threat before my horse can be secured by the Mob's camel.
The Mob should fairly quickly reject taking my camel hostage via 8g E>>EM>. My counter-attack with 8s HgvvHCv is just too strong. An attack on the c3-trap is also the answer to some other Mob moves such as the lame rabbit pull attempt 8g E>>HhRv. The Mob can't bring its elephant east as a substitute for defending its dog.
I am most concerned about 8g E>>Hf>Dg>. I am not sure if my attack on the c3-trap still works then, because my camel has lost three steps towards capturing the Mob's dog. The alternative for me is 8s Rh7vvM^ plus some fourth step, but that exposes my rabbit and invites the Mob to flip it to g4. This is my prediction for the Mob's move, because I am not sure I even have a good response.
It seems the Mob also has a very reasonable move in 8g Rh2^^Dgv plus a fourth step. That rabbit advance would make it hard for my camel to attack anything but the rabbit itself. The Mob would have bought itself quite a bit of time before I could polish off their exposed rabbit. Still, it is not what I expect of the Mob to push rabbits unnecessarily. Probably they still think the game could devolve to rabbit pulling at some point, so they won't want to be behind.
Yet another possibility for the Mob is to battle my three-step pulls with three-step retreats, and see who can make best use of the free fourth step. I expect to win that duel, because I am quite eager to push a rabbit up the h-file, while the Mob probably doesn't have a single step it feels like using anywhere on the board. (Assuming, again, that they are averse to pushing their own rabbits.) That would leave only an elephant step for the fourth: 8g Hf>Dg<vE>. The Mob's first step east with its elephant proved not to be a waste of time at all, but its second step east seems more likely to be misguided, as it leaves the west a bit more open without threatening much in the east. I think I could respond with 8s Rh7vvM^De>, leaving no eastern targets big enough for the Mob's elephant, which would be forced to run back west.
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Fritzlein
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8s
« Reply #17 on: Jun 1st, 2010, 6:56am » |
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8s
The Mob moved after ten and a half days, reducing their reserve to only five and a half days. Soon they will have to start moving within the allotted week. I hope the quality of their play will be weakened somewhat when they move within seven days per move, because so far their moves have all been solid.
I totally didn't expect 8g E>>M^Rc^, the Mob's latest move. I have said how the Mob is unwilling to advance rabbits even when it is called for strategically, but their actual play belies my criticism. This is the second time they have advanced a rabbit behind a trap to help secure it. If they don't mind having rabbits behind their home traps it raises the question of why they didn't set up with rabbits there on move 1g, but I can't criticize a good plan just because it is inconsistent. Maybe setting up with rabbits on c2 and f2 is unsound, and the smart thing to do is exactly what the Mob has done: put them in place when called for. At the moment the Mob has four rabbits on the second rank while I have only three, so their rabbits are further forward than mine!
The Mob's camel in c3 shuts down any hope I have of attacking the c3-trap with elephant and horse(s). Since I have no fast counter-attack, I am nearly forced to retreat my camel in order to buy time for a slower plan to take effect. With my strategic options looking very constrained, I expect to play 8s Rh7vvM^Hd^ in just a few days, recapturing some reserve time.
My intention to move quickly means neither that I feel I am winning nor that I feel I have been cornered. It's just that one strategic plan clearly predominates, for better or for worse. Our camels have committed to opposite wings, as have our elephants. We are set up for a race, but I can't win the race with a multi-piece attack. Also I can't afford to break off the race and use my elephant to defend in the east. It seems we must eventually collapse into a position where both elephants are in the same wing as one of the camels, and at that time one player will have a free camel in the other wing. I want to be the one who has the free camel. Therefore my only viable option is for my lone elephant to make a threat in the c6-trap, strong enough and fast enough that it forces the Mob's elephant to defend the west, leaving my camel to rule the east. My plan is not hopeless, at least not superficially, because the Mob's camel on c3 is more exposed than it was on c2.
Of course, I will have to play out a few lines to see how a race appears to shape up. It may be that my exposed rabbit on h5 will be too weak for me to save, in which case I will have to consider other camel-saving moves such as unfreezing with my dog or cat and getting my camel to h6. Also I will do some due diligence on alternative strategies such as flipping the Mob's camel to e3, or playing against the Mob's g4-dog with either 8s E>Hd>> or 8s E>^> plus a fourth step. I'm not in such a rush to move that I won't look around. Frankly, though, I expect this to be my easiest decision since the setup.
...
My intuition was strong, but my analysis contradicted it. After some time at the board I have come to favor 8s Hd>>ME>. Pulling the Mob's camel with my fourth step is what I was missing before. My threat to the Mob's camel is entirely in earnest because the Mob might lose it in exchange for my horse in some lines if they fail to retreat. That threat alone wouldn't make my strategy right, but I'm also threatening to capture the Mob's f3-horse, and also threatening to flip the Mob's cat from e2 to e4. Add in to the mix that the Mob's dog on g4 is misplaced, and the combination of factors in my favor appears to offset the play that the Mob's elephant will have against my frozen camel and horse.
At any rate my hope of moving quickly has faded. The elephant-horse switch I am now favoring is sharp enough that I must play out more lines before committing to it.
...
Argh! After further anaylsis, I don't like either of my moves. 8s Hd>>ME> can be answered effectively by 9g Dd^M^<<, leaving a position where our camels are on opposite wings as I wanted, but our elephants are on the wrong side. I could take a key square with 9s E^HfD>Hv, but then 10g Hf<M^HMv follows, and I don't have enough tactical tricks to save both of my horses.
On the other hand, 8s Rh7vvM^Hd^ basically admits that my central horse charge was no good, as I have to retreat with loss of time. I've played out several lines, and my problem is time. I need to make a western threat as soon as possible, to force the Mob's elephant back west, to let my camel rule the east again. But sometimes it seems the Mob can capture my rabbit before I accomplish my goal. I am not happy.
The time the Mob spent on its previous move was obviously worth it. At one point I thought I would be able to win by out-working the Mob, but this past week gives my hope the lie. I haven't had time for very thorough analysis. Although I somewhat suspect that my intended move doesn't work, I have already overstepped my allotted week and I feel pressure to move despite my misgivings about my position. Let the chips fall where they may.
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Fritzlein
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9g
« Reply #18 on: Jun 1st, 2010, 6:56am » |
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9g
No time to analyze, but I can at least take a stab at predicting the Mob's move: 9g Dg>RDvE<, pulling my exposed rabbit and centralizing their elephant.
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Fritzlein
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9s
« Reply #19 on: Jun 1st, 2010, 6:56am » |
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9s
The Mob played 9g CbvM< Dg>Hf> in two and a half days, boosting their reserve to ten days. I didn't think they could move so quickly unless I made a move they had anticipated. Now I wonder, though, whether they might have reached consensus quickly even without anticipating my move, just because they wanted to gain reserve and a safe move was available. I suppose my curiosity about that and many other things won't be satisfied until after the game.
I don't know why I signed up for nine Postal Mixer games given that I knew I would still be defending the Challenge and still trying to get my book out when the tournament started. Now I no longer have time for the Mob game. For this move I will forgo any pretense of deep analysis, and play my gut move: 9s E^<<Cfv. Getting my elephant near the Mob's camel can't be far wrong, as it also brings my elephant within range of the Mob's advanced horse, and my strategic objective is to create a western threat with my elephant. The fourth step, though, has a ton of options, and I'm just picking one arbitrarily.
The one tactical point to consider is my exposed d5-horse, which the Mob's elephant could push to d4. However, I could in response flee with my horse to g4, taking the Mob's h4-dog hostage, so I don't think I need to fear at the moment. If I could retreat my horse with one step, I would probably get it out of the way, but since I need two steps to retreat, it doesn't seem worth it.
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Fritzlein
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10g
« Reply #20 on: Jun 1st, 2010, 6:57am » |
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10g
I suspect the Mob will get right to work pulling my h-rabbit with two steps while using two steps in the west, something like 10g RDhvE<M>, but I really don't have time to tell whether or not it is a good move.
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Fritzlein
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10s
« Reply #21 on: Jun 1st, 2010, 6:58am » |
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10s
Wow, the Mob played 10g E<EHvHbv, using just under a week. Not only did the Mob not pull my rabbit, it retreated its horse a step, giving up the threat of pulling my rabbit. Also it chose to make the threat to my advanced horse that I said I didn't fear. Either the Mob has just made a strategically weak move, or I don't understand the position. Since I didn't analyze much on 9g, 9s, and 10g, the odds are that I just don't understand. It's time to catch up on analysis.
...
My punishment for not analyzing is that the escape hatch I was relying on is not available. After 10s E>H>>> the Mob can play 11g HvE>>>, taking my horse hostage. I can save it with my elephant, of course, but then our elephants will be tied up on the side where I have my camel, not the side where the Mob has its camel. That is exactly the opposite of what I want to happen. The whole purpose of my setup was to get a horse hostage with my elephant on the side where I had two horses, thus freeing my camel to operate on the other side.
A couple of years ago chessandgo told me that he always wanted his camel on the "fight side", but in this position at least his insight would be wrong. Indeed, I believe this position has turned on a light bulb for me. I am a step closer to understanding when it is good for an elephant to hold a horse hostage, and when it is bad. For me to give up a horse hostage to the Mob's elephant in the east right now would be terrible. I don't even have to play out lots of tactical lines to see it; strategically I would be whipped. I'm done analyzing that possibility.
My next instinct was to consider a double-trap attack with 10s EM<DevMv. My pieces are generally further forward than the Mob's, so the attack is becoming more and more natural. Unfortunately, I seem to be just short of the timing I need after 11g EHvM^Dh<. I would lose material in the f3-trap before my swarm would be far enough advanced to contest f3 with little pieces alone. It's too bad there is a tactical refutation, because attacking would be a lot of fun, and strategically it seems invited.
The failure of both my horse retreat and my all-out attack puts me in a tight spot. I guess the Mob move was pretty good after all. I moved last time by my gut feeling, but my strategic intuition was lacking. The only silver lining in the cloud is that next time I am in a similar situation, my intuition will be better, I hope.
It seems that my only playable option left for me is to offer a horse trade with 10s E^HEv plus some fourth step. The horse trade would leave the Mob on move in a strategically sharp position. However, it would least be a fluid position in which I would have nearly-equal chances, as opposed to my other options which would get me in a strategic bind and let the Mob squeeze me. I refuse to be squoze.
What worries me about offering a horse trade is that the Mob doesn't have to accept. Nearly any Mob move beginning with E< is a way for them to decline, which makes it hard for me to be sure that there isn't some devastating reply to my trade offer. However, the first reply I thought of, namely 11g E<Hb<M>> can be neatly refuted by 11s E>Hd^E>Dev, cutting the Mob's elephant off from the center preparatory to swarming the f3-trap. Seeing that this move could be refuted gives me hope to look further.
I see also that the Mob could undo three steps 10s E^HEv with three steps 11g E<Hb<E>, so I had better have a more useful fourth step than any fourth step the Mob can muster, or else I have lost in the exchange. This increases the pressure on my horse trade offer. On the other hand, the most obvious fourth step for the Mob is to step its camel toward my exposed horse, and that seems to leave me in reasonable shape after 11s E>H>ME>.
When I play out other three-step-for-three-step lines that the Mob might undertake, it seems to me that my only hope of progress is advancing my a7-rabbit. When I advance it to a5 on 11s, the Mob can't push it back to a6 without running afoul of the repetition rule, whereas if they push it forward to a4, it suddenly turns out that I have the timing for an all-out attack after all. And even in some other lines where the Mob declines the horse trade, having the a6-rabbit is useful. Therefore I am leaning hard towards the move 10s E^HEvRa7v at the moment.
How ironic is it that I predicted the Mob would pull my rabbit on 10g, but now that they haven't I am seriously considering using 10s to push the same rabbit they didn't pull? Apparently my intuition failed me both on the value of an elephant holding a horse hostage, and on the value of an advanced rabbit. Whether I win or lose, I seem destined to learn a ton from this game.
I'm tempted to move quickly again this turn because every move I have looked at other than offering a horse trade is clearly poor. I don't need to gain time, though, because I boosted my reserve to eighteen days on my last move, and if the Mob accepts the horse trade I will have a forced recapture that will gain me almost a whole week of reserve. Additionally I am losing reserve in all nine of my Postal Mixer games, and I have my final Challenge game tomorrow. It makes sense for me to let this move stew a while and come back to it next week.
...
I looked at my preferred horse-trade-offer move a bit more. I'm now afraid that 11g E<Hb<E>M> will give the Mob a small but clear advantage. Even if they consent to a horse trade on 12g, my exposed rabbit on h5 is a disadvantage after the horses come off.
In desperation, I looked at flipping the Mob's camel to b5. I had rejected this out of hand after seeing the Mob's move, because it seemed that the entire point of stepping their horse to a5 was to permit 11g HM>Ha^> after a camel flip. I have been very concerned to keep the Mob's horse out of b6, so why let it in now? Furthermore, the camel flip is surely the response the Mob analyzed most heavily, so I would be walking into the teeth of their analysis if I played it. I would be accepting a line they could have avoided but didn't, so I should expect their analysis to show it is in their favor.
On the other hand, I could continue with 11s E>EM^Hbv. My horse can't be kept out of b3 in that line. Strategically, why should my horse on b3 be any worse than their horse on b6? Admittedly, I would suffer if the Mob's camel could wriggle free and return home to pounce on my attacking horses, but would I have to allow that? Intuitively it seems that if I have HH attacking the c3-trap while the Mob has MH attacking the c6-trap, I should be in better shape, especially since my little pieces are slightly more advanced.
I'm already more than eleven days into this move, but I need to look at it some more before I decide, because I can't immediately evaluate the camel flip. I should be able to replenish my reserve later, but I won't have a second chance to flip the camel if I don't do it now.
...
I got distracted by contract negotiations for my book "Beginning Arimaa", and suddenly I am almost three weeks into this move with only four and a half days of reserve left. Looking at the board again just now, I literally can't remember why the camel flip seemed so dangerous. I think I had better just flip the camel now and hope for the best. I'm walking straight into their trap, but if I am lucky it won't be as bad for me as the Mob thinks.
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Fritzlein
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11g
« Reply #22 on: Jun 1st, 2010, 6:58am » |
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11g
I predict the Mob will play 11g HM>Ha^>, because otherwise I don't understand why they used one step on their horse on move 10g. It seems that 11g M>vE<Cb^ is also reasonable, but why would the Mob have allowed the camel flip if it intended to run away with its camel afterwards? They will play consistently with whatever they were thinking before. It could also be that the move the Mob actually prepared for me is something I haven't even considered, or that it is something I considered but (incorrectly) dismissed as weak. Normally I would give myself a reasonable probability of predicting correctly in a board situation such as this, but knowing that the Mob must have anticipated my move and must have prepared a reply makes me much less confident.
...
Oh, blast, now I see it! The Mob will surely play 11g HM>v, retreating the camel while dislodging my b6-horse and keeping my d4 horse under threat. That will give me a terrible position. Why couldn't I see this before? It embarrassing that I overlooked such a crushing move after taking such a long time to play.
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Fritzlein
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11s
« Reply #23 on: Jun 1st, 2010, 6:59am » |
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11s
I have predicted the Mob's move correctly for only the second time, but this time is an occasion for sorrow. I would never have flipped the Mob's camel had I seen their crushing reply. I am only surprised that they took a little more than seven days to play it.
I am chagrinned to recall that I said I would have to win the opening in order to win the game. I was already in a ticklish situation on 10s, where my best move of offering a horse trade seemed to give me a little less than equality. I had perhaps been slightly outplayed by then already. My oversight on 10s, however, has put me in a clearly worse position. Furthermore, the longer the game drags on, the more the Mob will have an advantage from having many eyes. Although no blood has yet been shed, nor will be for as far ahead as I can see, my prospects look bleak indeed.
The only reasonable move I can see for me is 11s EMvHd>^, after which 12g EHdvv forces me to play 12s MvvMHv in order to save my horse. The Mob will have the pleasant choice between taking my camel hostage with its elephant and taking my horse hostage with its camel. Achieving either one will give them the advantage, while achieving both will give them the win.
In the lines I have played out, it seems just barely possible for me to contest both of the Mob's traps in the near term. I don't see how they can force direct material gain, and therefore I feel obliged to go down this terrible path and try to keep my head above water for as long as possible. I am quite sure how it will end, though. The Mob is too tough to make a blunder like mine that will let me back into the game. They will put the squeeze on me, precisely like I was intending to squeeze them. Either that or 10s was a worse blunder than I feared, in that it leads to forced material loss.
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Fritzlein
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12g
« Reply #24 on: Jun 1st, 2010, 6:59am » |
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12g
The move 12g EHdvv seems obvious, forcing, and strong. Why the Mob would do anything else? Why would they fear to take my camel hostage? The question in my mind is not whether this is the Mob's best move, but rather whether it forces material gain.
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Fritzlein
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12s
« Reply #25 on: Jun 1st, 2010, 6:59am » |
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12s
Again I predicted right, and again it is an occasion for sorrow. Furthermore the Mob moved in under two days. It seems unlikely that they will ever be in time trouble for the rest of the game.
Further analysis confirms that 12s E>vHC< loses material by force, whereas 12s MvvMHv appears only to give up a camel hostage to the Mob's elephant or a horse hostage to the Mob's camel. In the lines I tried, the Mob's best policy was to play to for a favorable camel hostage rather than beating around the bush trying to win material and possibly ending up with a less favorable hostage situation for their pains. I shouldn't risk evaluating the situation while it is still so unsettled, particularly given my recent tactical lapse, but just for fun let me predict that I will end up on the wrong end of a camel hostage, nothing worse.
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Fritzlein
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13g
« Reply #26 on: Jun 1st, 2010, 7:00am » |
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13g
One way for the Mob to play for immediate material gain is with 13g EH<MHv. My elephant will be able to defend the hostage trap if there is only one hostage, but if there are two hostages, my elephant could become overloaded. I believe, however, that there are multiple ways for me to dodge this bullet, including 13s E>EM<M^. When there seems to be more than one escape hatch, I feel better about my chances of avoiding capture. Likewise I think 13g EH<HM< can be dodged by more than one move, including 13s Hc>De>vv.
I think the Mob's best move is the most obvious one, namely 13g E>>EM>, taking my camel hostage. I expect that in predicting this move I will be correct for the third time in a row, as I watch my disadvantage inexorably become solidified. I can reply with 13s Hc>>>v, which gives the temporary illusion that I have a free elephant, but 14g M>MH^ puts a quick end to my fun. I can't think of any other reason the Mob wouldn't take my camel hostage, except of course if they see material gain I am overlooking.
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Fritzlein
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13s
« Reply #27 on: Jun 1st, 2010, 7:00am » |
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13s
The Mob makes the interesting choice of 13g E>Ce<Rf<Hg<. I am relieved that they saw no way to win material directly. Given that they can't win anything, I believe they are taking the correct approach of attempting to get as favorable a camel hostage as possible. Their move aims at making sure their eastern horse is not buried when they take my camel hostage, which is a reasonable idea.
I am not sure, however, that the Mob has gained anything relative to immediately taking my camel hostage. Indeed, their move may represent a slight gain of time for me as I attempt to shore up the hostage position. Because I am no longer compelled to immediately bring another defender to the f3-trap, I have more flexibility in choosing my move.
After not too much thought, I have decided to play 13s Hc>>ME>. I believe my threat to the Mob's camel compels them to spend at least three steps defending it, so that they still can't take my camel hostage on move 14g. This delay should give me enough time to prevent the Mob from activating its eastern horse anyway. If my calculation is correct, the Mob's move therefore fails to achieve its objective, and instead gives me a somewhat more comfortable hostage situation.
Unfortunately, I will still be behind by a camel hostage, so the Mob is still clearly winning. I will need many more small inaccuracies on their part to make up for my large blunder on 10s.
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Fritzlein
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14g
« Reply #28 on: Jun 1st, 2010, 7:01am » |
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14g
I don't think the Mob can afford to play for material advantage with 14g E<EH3< plus a fourth step, because I have the counter 14s He>vEM^ to keep all of my pieces alive and keep up my threat to the gold camel. If the Mob takes my camel hostage, my choice is even clearer: I would be winning after trading my horse for their camel, despite having my camel held hostage.
The Mob might consider defending the c6-trap with its horse on b6, but can't use up those two steps and still have enough steps to make an immediate capture threat in f3, so defending c6 would merely lead to a capture race that I would be winning. Advancing their camel too, seems to merely invite me into a capture race that I can either win outright, or at least tie; I would love an equal exchange of pieces rather than the coming hostage situation.
No, the Mob's camel must retreat to c3, and the only question is which piece should unfreeze it. I am rather hoping they make the weaker choice of bringing back their advanced horse for the task. Their western horse ultimately needs to attack the c6-trap, so such a horse retreat by the Mob would be a second consecutive loss of time.
My prediction is for the stronger move 14g Rh2^^>Mv, advancing a rabbit in anticipation of the coming race. I will be trying to swarm the f3 trap to free my elephant from having to guard it, so the Mob should anticipate this and start racing for a diagonally opposite swarm. The Mob's advanced horse and rabbit in the west will put enormous pressure on my position.
My predicted move for the Mob will leave me in a world of hurt positionally. My only comfort is that I am fairly likely to have predicted wrong. The vast number of options open to the Mob may induce another inaccuracy.
I don't look at the Mob's discussion thread, but I still frequent the Arimaa Forum several times per day, which incidentally informs me who is posting to which threads. I don't recall seeing chessandgo post about move 13g, although a contribution from him might have scrolled by before I noticed. Could his non-participation explain the Mob's poor choice? I blush now because I hoped earlier that chessandgo would dominate the discussion so that I would have an easier time winning. It turns out that I'm also losing my Postal Mixer game to him head-to-head (losing a rabbit in the opening), so even if he dictates every Mob move I should expect to lose! Misfortune has made me wiser: I now hope chessandgo is far too busy to contribute to the Mob ever again (not that the rest of the Mob isn't amply strong enough to beat me).
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Fritzlein
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Arimaa player #706
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14s
« Reply #29 on: Jun 1st, 2010, 7:01am » |
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14s
The Mob played 14g Cb^^MvE>. The camel retreat is correct and leaving the western horse forward is correct. The only difference between the Mob's move and my predicted move is that the Mob used a cat for the unfreezing, leaving an extra step for the east, which is probably as good as or better than my prediction.
The purest clash of strategies in the standard camel hostage position we are heading for is for me to try to swarm the hostage trap in order to free my elephant from defense while the Mob swarms the diagonally opposite trap attempting to force goal. Of course it is always more complicated than that. I can occupy the c6-trap and put a phalanx on b7, which are moves that take fewer steps than the number of extra steps they add to the Mob's goal attack. On the other hand, advancing my western pieces makes them vulnerable to being pulled over to the c3-trap.
Likewise, instead of playing in the west, the Mob can play in the east to slow down my swarm. For the last couple of moves the Mob has apparently been playing to take the camel hostage while activating either their eastern dog or their eastern horse. Either of those pieces, if active, could greatly slow down my swarm. In short, both players have an incentive to play pre-emptive defense on the wing whether the other player plans to attack.
If I am not mistaken, the Mob's recent eastern maneuvers have been futile because I can now play 14s Rh8vvCgvv, blocking in the Mob's dog. If the dog tried to break free up the g-file, I would have a real threat to capture it in the f6-trap. Then on 15s, I should be able to seal in the dog so it acts as part of my phalanx on b4.
My proposed move superficially gives the Mob a chance to activate its eastern horse with 15g EMvHf^^, but then 15s E>EH^H3^ eradicates my disadvantage. So I believe I have found a move that keeps both the Mob's eastern horse and the Mob's eastern dog bottled up, which in turn gives me rather more play for my camel hostage than I had anticipated getting.
Of course, I am still clearly losing, but I am gradually starting to hope that I may live long enough for the Mob to make strategic errors which let me back into the game. I drained my reserve a bit this week with an eight-day family vacation, but it should be easy for me to make up time on future moves.
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