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   Author  Topic: 2015 Move 15g  (Read 1168 times)
aaaa
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2015 Move 15g
« on: Jan 31st, 2016, 1:48pm »
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The cyborg played 14s df5e dg5w Rh5w rh6s:
 
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Hippo
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Re: 2015 Move 15g
« Reply #1 on: Jan 31st, 2016, 4:56pm »
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Exactly the move I was scared of ... I don't see a plan against silver's home game capturing our advanced rabbits (first).
 
Is Md6 Rc5 worth a try?
It should be calculated properly. Is it Mh exchange? Or will we get better trade than that?
« Last Edit: Jan 31st, 2016, 5:15pm by Hippo » IP Logged

SilverMitt
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Re: 2015 Move 15g
« Reply #2 on: Feb 1st, 2016, 2:57pm »
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If we could find a trade here that leaves compensation, that would be nice.  If we don't push into d6 with 15g Md6.De6 bc5, we should probably spend 3 steps to play b4.
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half_integer
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Re: 2015 Move 15g
« Reply #3 on: Feb 1st, 2016, 4:42pm »
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My first instinct is to build the phalanx at b5 and let the rabbit be lost, and work on possible camel rotation.
 
 15g Md6:De6 Rc5 doesn't "feel" right.
 15s De5:R Rg6g5 seems to lead to a pinned camel and loss of control at c6.  Unless we think we can abandon the frame and fight at f6 this doesn't seem like a good path.
 
The move suggested by Hufflepup in the move 14 thread is initially appealing as it prevents the capture this move:
 15g Cd2 De5  but  
 15s Rgh6 Cg6 Dde6 also seems to lead to a pinned dog, e.g.
 16g Ef4:Df6 Df5
 16s Cg7:R X X
But, since the dog cannot be removed except by the elephant right now, there is a chance this could be stable long enough to rotate the camel into the fight.
 
As I said, I agree with SilverMitt's last comment to complete the phalanx.  I suggest
 15g Rb4 Rd1
with a plan to rotate the camel out of c6, and the fourth step moving towards freeing another dog for the swarm.  With the camels and horses already occupied, this may be headed towards a dog fight next.
 
We also need to be aware of a silver Hc7 Rb7 later as that could prevent our camel rotation for dogs and cats.
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Hufflepup
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Re: 2015 Move 15g
« Reply #4 on: Feb 1st, 2016, 4:44pm »
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If we lose the eastern rabbit we probably couldn't launch any kind of effective attack in the east when the elephant switches wings, especially if we have to worry about an advanced silver rabbit. We also havr to worry about our camels line of retreat being cut off if silver advances too many pieces. Silver could also potentially frame the b5 rabbit before switching wings making it even more difficult to withdraw the camel.
 
Quote:
Is Md6 Rc5 worth a try?
It should be calculated properly. Is it Mh exchange? Or will we get better trade than that?

 
I can't see this leading to an MH exchange.  It might delay the capture of the g5 rabbit by a couple of turns but wont stop it. It would also allow silver to play 15s: mb6e hb7s hb6s mc6w.  A silver horse threatening f3 would be very problematic.
 
An alternative is 15g: Cc2e Dd3n Dd4n Dd5e which  would give us another advanced piece to fight for trap control.
 
As we are now very low on reserve I think we should start the poll in time to finish one day before we would start using the reserve to try and get a bit back.
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half_integer
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Re: 2015 Move 15g
« Reply #5 on: Feb 2nd, 2016, 7:21pm »
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Given the timestamps I assume that Hufflepup and I were writing our posts at the same time.  I pretty much agree with his post though.  A rabbit frame at c6 is a real possibility, but I don't see any way to combat it.  Fighting it afterward does seem feasible though.
 
The other option I did not address are moves that abandon the f3 frame.  I don't know what might be best.  Can something like
 15g E::Dd5 end up working in our favor?  Attacking the east such as  
 15g E:De5 Hg4 Rg3 doesn't look likely to go anywhere, and weakens our grip on f3.
 
I also agree we need to start the poll in less than two days (Thursday night), which means finding any other candidates soon.  I consider the Md6 move to be refuted, so I suggest the following as the current list:
 
   Rb4 Rcd1
   Cd2 De5
   E::Dd5
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mattj256
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Re: 2015 Move 15g
« Reply #6 on: Feb 2nd, 2016, 10:27pm »
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Oh, well.  Hippo gets a cookie.
 
I don't really have time for analysis...
Any value in flipping the silver dog to g4?  Silver could move the other dog to f5 in response, and I don't know that we're any better off.
 
Another move that I don't even like but I'll mention anyway: Ee5 Hf4
 
My favorite move so far is Cd2 De5.  In addition to preventing immediate rabbit loss I think it's in the right strategic direction. (It could lead to pull-and-replace of d6 dog and fight for control of c6.)  Do we have any plans of how we're going to swarm c6 or make threats in any trap?  I'd like to generate threats if possible.
 
I agree with what's been said that we should start the poll sooner rather than later.
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Re: 2015 Move 15g
« Reply #7 on: Feb 3rd, 2016, 6:38pm »
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I discounted both versions of the dog flip as follows:
 
For a flip to e4, the dog can return to f5 in only two steps.  Thus, best case is that we give silver two free steps, and worse case is he finds an even better move than returning the dog to f5.
 
For a flip to g4, I simply envision Rh4 D:Rf5 X.  This doesn't really do anything to protect our rabbit even if it runs away for a bit, and silver advances a rabbit which he wants to do anyway.  We can't threaten the rabbit as long as f3 is filled, and if we are the ones to leave f3 then it just becomes a threat.
 
I had also looked at Ee5 Hf4 or E:De5 Hf4.  I don't see anything really great about them, but they're worth putting in the poll.
 
So, I guess the following are also poll candidates:
   E::Dg4
   Ee5 Hf4
   E:De5 Hf4
And also we could add
   Rb4 Rh1h2
in case anyone thinks we should advance the h rabbit now.
 
There are other combinations following E:De5 but I don't know what would be best.  Right now I favor putting our dog on e5 for the same reasons that Matt gave.
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Hufflepup
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Re: 2015 Move 15g
« Reply #8 on: Feb 4th, 2016, 3:12am »
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The other option I did not address are moves that abandon the f3 frame. I don't know what might be best. Can something like
 15g E:Cheesyd5 end up working in our favor?

 
I don't think so. This wouldn't allow us to break the camel hostage, and we wouldn't be able to regain the frame in f3. Furthermore silver would be in a position to launch a strong attack on f3 and we would have no way of making counter threats.
 
Quote:
Do we have any plans of how we're going to swarm c6 or make threats in any trap? I'd like to generate threats if possible.

 
The only threat we are likely to be able to make in the future is the existing horse frame. c6 is too well protected with the silver camel, we don't have the spare pieces to attack f6 and I can't see us getting a position where we can flip something towards f3.
 
In the next couple of turns I think we need to be looking at rotating the e2 dog out of the phalanx (It is unfortunate that a cat on d2 would make this more timeconsuming), and bringing it forward. Another thing is to block the advancement of the h5 rabbit with the h1 rabbit, though I'm not sure how far we should advance it.
 
I agree with half_integer about the dog flip.
« Last Edit: Feb 4th, 2016, 7:09am by Hufflepup » IP Logged
half_integer
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Re: 2015 Move 15g
« Reply #9 on: Feb 4th, 2016, 4:38pm »
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Last night I saw that  
 15g E::Dd5 is pretty well refuted by
 15s Hg4 Ed4
which allows silver to both threaten our camel and protect his dog.  The end result would probably be our elephant tied to c6 with loss of the g5 rabbit or silver free to attack f3.
 
I'm liking the dog advance more.  It gives us another piece around f6 if and when we switch to attacking there.  I think the dog can get pinned to the rabbit but not threatened itself in the mid-term.  If silver leaves d6 I would consider putting the dog there to help swarm the trap and maybe free the camel to corral the northwestern horse.  That horse breaking out is one of the things I worry about.  For following moves I agree with Huffle that we should rotate out the e2 dog and advance it as well, as well as complete the phalanx at b5 if possible.  A dog at e5 also makes a potential flip to e4 more threatening.
 
 
As an aside, I think we're seeing the downside of the frame.  It is taking us six pieces to control two of his, and we're not getting a stronger free piece.  The only benefit is we have greater freedom to leave.  I think we will end up leaving the frame before silver does, so the issue is just how well prepared we can be when that time comes.
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half_integer
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Re: 2015 Move 15g
« Reply #10 on: Feb 5th, 2016, 7:54pm »
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Deep hasn't started a poll yet, so I'm starting to think we should try to decide on a move in the forum.  I had hoped to gain about a day of reserve this move.
 
No one has actually advocated for the moves which abandon the frame.  Everyone who has given an opinion is also against the dog flip.  Rotation of the e2 dog now was also mentioned but seems less critical than other goals this move, since it would abandon the rabbit.  I think that basically leaves us with two options: phalanx at b5 with either a step east or an h file step, or advance the dog to e5.
 
So, short list for the poll:
   Cd2 De5
   Rb4 Rd1
   Rb4 Rhh2
 
That also coincides with my preferred ranking, so one forum vote for dog advance.
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Hufflepup
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Re: 2015 Move 15g
« Reply #11 on: Feb 6th, 2016, 2:37am »
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My preferences are the same as half integers.
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