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   Author  Topic: Bot winning chances  (Read 1320 times)
hyperpape
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Bot winning chances
« on: Feb 22nd, 2014, 10:21am »
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Has there been any effort to estimate the chances of current bots against the very top humans, whether based on the WHR calculations or gut feel?  I know Nombril lost a few challenge games, but he would be an underdog against Fritzlein or Chessandgo.
 
I ask because the computergo list had an off-topic discussion about whether go or arimaa would fall to bots first.
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hyperpape
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Re: Bot winning chances
« Reply #1 on: Feb 22nd, 2014, 10:22am »
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Related note: I see no event report for the 2013 challenge Sad
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Fritzlein
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Re: Bot winning chances
« Reply #2 on: Feb 22nd, 2014, 6:41pm »
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I tried to start a discussion in this thread, but only browni has chimed in so far.  Someone needs to say something outrageous to get the ball rolling.
 
on Feb 22nd, 2014, 10:22am, hyperpape wrote:
Related note: I see no event report for the 2013 challenge Sad

 
Some talk about it is in this thread.
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hyperpape
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Re: Bot winning chances
« Reply #3 on: Feb 22nd, 2014, 9:24pm »
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I did see that after posting, but it's not quite what I'm asking. I'm wondering what the probability of a bot winning in a single game against you or Jean or hanzack (or Adanac, or browni--top player is a little vague) today.
 
The challenge question is so much more complex, because it depends on future advances, who is chosen as defender, etc.
« Last Edit: Feb 22nd, 2014, 9:25pm by hyperpape » IP Logged
Ail
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Re: Bot winning chances
« Reply #4 on: Feb 23rd, 2014, 6:12am »
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This is the strongest matchup I found in sharps history. I know that browni also played it a lot but the history is not that long to still contain those games.
 
bot_sharp vs. Fritzlein
http://arimaa.com/arimaa/games/jsShowGame.cgi?gid=224510&s=b
 
Calculating winning chances from one game doesn't seem too feasible though.
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