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Fritzlein
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Re: 2006 WC Prediction Contest
« Reply #45 on: Dec 2nd, 2005, 10:05am » |
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on Dec 1st, 2005, 9:47pm, 99of9 wrote:| I think the fact that the majority were betting ~80% for the loser indicates that we were either extremely lucky, or we had some better knowledge than the majority. |
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I think we were definitely lucky to be right, and my knowledge of the situation consisted only of knowing that I should bet 55% on a game when I'm not sure who to bet on. My only extra information was that PMertens was playing late at night in a hotel lobby, which clinched the choice when I was wavering. Given that Mr. Brain was losing his game until he won, and that while I watched the PMertens-Adanac game I changed my mind five or six times about who was going to win, I hardly feel I'm in a position to say, "I knew it all along," when the final results happen to match my guesses.
Of course, maybe you were right and the winners of those games were actually the favorites. There is no way to distinguish luck from skill in the short run, so you are perfectly justified in thinking you are skilled.  And you've done so consistently well in prediction contests (4th, 5th, and now ~3rd) it isn't really the short run any more.
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| « Last Edit: Dec 2nd, 2005, 10:06am by Fritzlein » |
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Adanac
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Re: 2006 WC Prediction Contest
« Reply #46 on: Dec 2nd, 2005, 11:01am » |
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on Dec 1st, 2005, 9:18pm, Fritzlein wrote:
99of9, I was only 65% for Omar, so that puts us in a virtual tie for second place, unless Paul or Adanac bet on BlackKnight and leapfrogged us. |
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I used the predict-the-opposite-of-everyone-else-in-a-close-matchup theory to pick BlackKnight at 55% even though Omar probably had a better than 50% chance of winning. I could pretend it was a brilliant pick, but to be honest, I didn't even research the W-L record of the 2 players before the game. I still haven't, for that matter 
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Fritzlein
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Re: 2006 WC Prediction Contest
« Reply #47 on: Dec 2nd, 2005, 11:15am » |
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on Dec 2nd, 2005, 11:01am, Adanac wrote:| I used the predict-the-opposite-of-everyone-else-in-a-close-matchup theory to pick BlackKnight at 55% |
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Welcome to second place in the prediciton standings!
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Fritzlein
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Re: 2006 WC Prediction Contest
« Reply #48 on: Dec 3rd, 2005, 9:39am » |
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Three upsets in three games in round three! Does anyone care to make a side bet on whether we will collectively lose points in the third round of predicting?
In the middle of the second round of the tournament, I guessed I was briefly in second place in the prediction standings, but now I'm bleeding prediction points with every game, and mentally demoting my rank as we go. We'll see how bad it gets by the end of the round.
I'm shocked that the average of the five predictors for Adanac was 78%. Somebody took a chance and hit the jackpot, and it sure wasn't me.
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Adanac
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Re: 2006 WC Prediction Contest
« Reply #49 on: Dec 3rd, 2005, 10:24am » |
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on Dec 3rd, 2005, 9:39am, Fritzlein wrote:Three upsets in three games in round three! Does anyone care to make a side bet on whether we will collectively lose points in the third round of predicting?
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I’ve estimated the aggregate score for round 3 by conservatively guessing the distribution of predictions, excluding those that didn’t predict: it’s -6920!! To answer your question, yes I would
ESTIMATES:
13 players predicted Omar: Estimated Total Score = -2080
5 players predicted BlackKnight: Estimated Total Score = +705
19 players predicted Belbo: Estimated Total Score = -4370
14 players predicted 99of9: Estimated Total Score = -1890
5 players predicted Adanac: Estimated Total Score = +715
Estimated Total Score = -6920
It's too bad for Megamau that he didn't participate. He could be in first place!
on Dec 3rd, 2005, 9:39am, Fritzlein wrote:
I'm shocked that the average of the five predictors for Adanac was 78%. Somebody took a chance and hit the jackpot, and it sure wasn't me.
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It sure wasn’t me. I’ve predicted myself at 55% in each of the past 2 games. That means that 4 players averaged 83.75% on me, likely players lower in the standings that needed to gamble to climb back up the ladder. If those same 4 players also predicted BlackKnight, we could be in for a surprise when the round 3 standings are published.
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Fritzlein
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Re: 2006 WC Prediction Contest
« Reply #50 on: Dec 11th, 2005, 7:51pm » |
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Wow, all those upsets in round 3 didn't spread things out very much. In fact, it is tighter at the top than it was after round 2. Fifth place is currently 217 pionts behind first, whereas after round two, the gap between first and fifth was double that. With eight or nine games left, and lots of close matchups among those games, the contest is still wide open.
Adanac jumped into first, while JDB dropped a spot to second, but I'd have to say that JDB is the favorite now since he is eliminated while Adanac is undefeated. On the other hand, my theory that non-players have an advantage is somewhat undermined by the fact that the highest observer is Elmo in 7th place. The closer it gets to the end, the less anything counts other than guessing right!
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Ryan_Cable
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Re: 2006 WC Prediction Contest
« Reply #51 on: Dec 12th, 2005, 11:58am » |
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The Round 3 scores:
Name Points StDev
1 robinson . . 92 . 1.365
2 Ryan_Cable . 86 . 1.345
3 Adanac . . 72 . 1.299
4 nbarriga . -43 . 0.922
5 grey_0x2A . -46 . 0.912
6 acheron . . -80 . 0.801
7 Paul . . -126 0.650
8 Fritzlein . -179 0.477
9 omar . . -237 0.287
10 MrBrain . . -265 0.195
11 Belbo . . -305 0.064
12 99of9 . . -313 0.038
13 PMertens . -404 -0.261
14 Elmo . . -405 -0.264
15 jdb . . -426 -0.333
16 Aamir . . -466 -0.464
17 BlackKnight . -511 -0.611
18 naveed . . -651 -1.070
19 mohabbatse . -855 -1.738
20 carolaina . -862 -1.761
21 RonWeasley . -890 -1.853
22 fritzlforpresident -963 -2.092
Median -305.0
Mean -324.5
StDev 305.2
The total scores after round 3, with ~71% of the non-forfeit games finished:
Name Points StDev
1 Adanac . . 1671 1.245
2 jdb . . 1662 1.232
3 Fritzlein . 1575 1.110
4 Paul . . 1572 1.106
5 99of9 . . 1554 1.080
6 Ryan_Cable . 1319 0.750
7 Elmo . . 1256 0.661
8 MrBrain . . 1116 0.464
9 nbarriga . . 1090 0.427
10 Belbo . . 786 0.000
11 robinson . . 771 -0.021
12 grey_0x2A . 762 -0.034
13 acheron . . 693 -0.131
14 BlackKnight . 604 -0.256
15 naveed . . 589 -0.278
16 RonWeasley . 481 -0.430
17 omar . . 283 -0.708
18 PMertens . . 113 -0.947
19 Aamir . . 10 -1.092
20 fritzlforpresident -447 -1.735
21 mohabbatse . -949 -2.442
22 carolaina . -1141 -2.712
Median 771.0
Mean 786.2
StDev 710.6
The following tables list round 1 scores, round 2 scores, round 3 scores, and total scores. (Note that mohabbatse was included in the round 2 and round 3 numbers only.)
Round 1 winners:
Median 1030.5 25.5 -208.0 1052.5
Mean 996.5 161.0 -148.5 1009.0
StDev 166.6 452.4 202.5 608.0
Round 1 losers:
Median 1034.0 154.0 -265.0 762.0
Mean 981.3 319.1 -300.7 999.7
StDev 145.4 383.7 233.8 457.4
Spectators:
Median 1033.5 53.0 -855.0 245.5
Mean 972.8 -129.4 -640.6 208.2
StDev 194.1 580.0 342.6 920.7
People with 2005 experience:
Median 1033.0 115.5 -404.5 695.0
Mean 1003.4 115.8 -418.7 700.6
StDev 131.2 603.0 190.7 815.5
People without 2005 experience:
Median 1034.0 67.5 -63.0 771.0
Mean 959.7 122.6 -198.9 879.1
StDev 197.6 343.3 389.6 644.4
People with 2004 experience:
Median 1072.0 154.0 -305.0 786.0
Mean 1025.8 194.0 -354.2 865.6
StDev 103.7 445.5 168.7 489.6
People without 2004 experience:
Median 1031.0 77.0 -404.0 766.5
Mean 971.8 96.8 -353.3 749.4
StDev 174.6 514.2 365.5 807.9
Undefeated players:
Median . . . 82.0 1221.0
Mean . . . 82.0 1221.0
StDev . . . 14.1 636.4
Players with one loss:
Median . . . -313.0 1319.0
Mean . . . -264.2 1033.0
StDev . . . 230.6 647.6
Eliminated players:
Median . . . -251.0 774.0
Mean . . . -267.0 932.9
StDev . . . 199.6 481.4
The spectators have fallen behind by more than a StDev. The round 1 losers and winners are about equal. People with 2005 experience did >200 points worse in round 3 than those without experience, which gives an idea how much all of these numbers are effected by noise.
The round 3 scores where negatively correlated with the round 1 scores at -0.221. This is likely because round 1 rewarded aggressive predicting, but round 3 rewarded passive predicting. Round 3 has 0.693 correlation with the total score, putting it midway between round 2 at 1.133 and round 1 at 0.397. This is probably because predictions were more bunched up in round 3, with everyone predicting for Belbo for instance.
The crowd predicted 1.539 upsets. Weighting down the upset predictions to remove the forced predictions, the crowd predicted 1.399 upsets. My ratings estimates predicted 1.02072 upsets. Since there were actually 3 upsets, this could be an indication that my ratings estimates are underestimating the chance of upsets, or it could be that desperation is causing people to predict upsets to have a chance to recover from poor performance in previous rounds.
My winning predictions from round 2 still look good, but RonWeasley does seem to have cracked under the pressure from round 1.
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Fritzlein
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Re: 2006 WC Prediction Contest
« Reply #52 on: Dec 12th, 2005, 12:56pm » |
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on Dec 12th, 2005, 11:58am, Ryan_Cable wrote:The Round 3 scores:
7 Paul . . -126 0.650
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The penalty for not predicting is 21 points per game, so it looks suspiciously like Paul did not enter any predictions, and out-performed the field by doing so. His overall position stayed steady at fourth place, but now he's only 100 points out of first place, whereas he was almost 400 points out of first before the round.
If the rest of us have another debacle predicting on round 4, an absent Paul could not only move up into the money, he could climb all the way to the top!
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omar
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Re: 2006 WC Prediction Contest
« Reply #53 on: Dec 13th, 2005, 1:17am » |
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I've noticed that those of us at the bottom have almost no incentive now to keep predicting. I have about a zero chance of catching up to the top predictors
To keep things interesting for everyone next year, maybe we can pool a registration fee which is redistributed based on performance. Kind of like how we did with the postal tournament. So even at the bottom I would still have an incentive to try and get back as much of my registration fee as possible. Perhaps I would also not have made such wildly confident perdictions to begin with
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Fritzlein
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Re: 2006 WC Prediction Contest
« Reply #54 on: Dec 13th, 2005, 2:47pm » |
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on Dec 13th, 2005, 1:17am, omar wrote:| I've noticed that those of us at the bottom have almost no incentive now to keep predicting. I have about a zero chance of catching up to the top predictors |
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I would continue to enter predictions to see how well I could do the rest of the way, but I can understand if people quit when they have no more chance to win. It is important to note that quitting doesn't spoil the fun for other people who are still in contention.
Quote:| To keep things interesting for everyone next year, maybe we can pool a registration fee which is redistributed based on performance. Kind of like how we did with the postal tournament. So even at the bottom I would still have an incentive to try and get back as much of my registration fee as possible. Perhaps I would also not have made such wildly confident perdictions to begin with |
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I doubt I will play in future prediction constests if the prize money comes from pooled entry fees. The prediction contest is fun, but I'm not here to gamble, I'm here to play Arimaa. Also I wonder whether spectators with a casual interest in the game (like my brother-in-law fritzlforpresident) would play if there were a registration fee.
I feel quite differently about the postal tournament. In a round-robin tournament it is unpleasant if someone quits because the remaining players benefit unequally. Probably someone who would have otherwise lost will get a win for free when someone leaves. Furthermore, a postal game can require quite a bit of time in total, and after I've invested a month or two in a game, I would be disappointed to have it be decided by dropout. These factors make a "commitment fee" seem very appropriate.
In other events, however, I'd much rather play with no fees and no prize money than have the money come from entry fees. I will try just as hard in the prediction contest next year if there are no prizes offered. I will play just as hard in next year's World Championship if there is no prize money. (Although I admit, I might not get high-speed Internet access just for the occasion.) And already there is no money for successfully defending humanity's honor in the Arimaa Challenge, but I nevertheless would consider it a privilege to play, and do my best to shut out the bots.
As Arimaa matures and the playing population grows, I expect you will be able to phase out the prize money you are presently paying out of your own pocket. The prizes are helping to promote the game at present, but eventually lots of people will play just for the love of the game, and try to win events just for the fame.
When you reduce your own monetary contribution, however, my personal preference would be to see it replaced with non-money games and events, rather than building the prize pool from entry fees.
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RonWeasley
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Re: 2006 WC Prediction Contest
« Reply #55 on: Dec 13th, 2005, 4:09pm » |
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In an opinion representing only myself, I would be happy with no fees and no prizes. The small fees for tournament entry don't bother me, but I might not enter the whimsical prediction contest if the fee was too high. Motivation for playing well is less money motivated than it is to avoid the mortification of blundering in full view of the Arimaa community. Even in a losing position, it would be bad manners to abandon a game. Comical last moves are an exception, though, because they don't waste the opponent's time or respect.
This from a minor wizard who can play only owl games.
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Ryan_Cable
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Re: 2006 WC Prediction Contest
« Reply #56 on: Dec 15th, 2005, 6:20am » |
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on Dec 13th, 2005, 1:17am, omar wrote:| I've noticed that those of us at the bottom have almost no incentive now to keep predicting. I have about a zero chance of catching up to the top predictors |
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Yes, but I think this is more than offset by making the game more exciting for the people at or near the top and more interesting for everyone in the beginning. To me, the tradeoff between variance and expectation is the whole attraction of the prediction contest. Simple score maximization would bore me. Of course, if you are wanting the prediction contest to help attract spectators, I can see why you are a little bit disappointed with their performance.
on Dec 13th, 2005, 1:17am, omar wrote:| To keep things interesting for everyone next year, maybe we can pool a registration fee which is redistributed based on performance. |
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I agree with Fritzlein and RonWeasley. I have spent far more than $50 worth of my time thinking about who is going to win the WC, and trying to find a good strategy for the prediction contest. And I can assure you I am not in the WC for the 23 cents the sims said I could expect
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Adanac
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Re: 2006 WC Prediction Contest
« Reply #57 on: Dec 15th, 2005, 7:18am » |
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on Dec 15th, 2005, 6:20am, Ryan_Cable wrote:
Yes, but I think this is more than offset by making the game more exciting for the people at or near the top and more interesting for everyone in the beginning. To me, the tradeoff between variance and expectation is the whole attraction of the prediction contest. Simple score maximization would bore me. Of course, if you are wanting the prediction contest to help attract spectators, I can see why you are a little bit disappointed with their performance.
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The current prediction format is fantastic and I completely agree with Ryan. The excitement of trying to be #1 is far more intriguing than a mathematical exercise in trying to maximize one's slice of the pie. I agree that it would be ideal if everyone had an incentive to play until the very end (and consistent with the Arimaa philosophy of never quit, scratch & claw 'til the bitter end), but I still prefer the current system.
Incidentally, I think that we'll have lots of spectators for the finals, regardless of how many players are still active in the prediction contest. The contest really only needs to hook us into spectating during lopsided early-round games. Later in the tournament, the excitement of the games is enough incentive to watch 
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omar
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Re: 2006 WC Prediction Contest
« Reply #58 on: Dec 16th, 2005, 5:38pm » |
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Sorry I didn't explain everything in my previous post. I didn't mean that the prize money would come from the registration fees. I'll continue having a prize for the best predictors as long as I can afford it. I just thought that my proposal would make the contest even more intersting regardless of how you've done so far in the contest. The registration fee would be very nominal like $5.
But, I agree that since there is no need for a commitment, the registration fee should be optional. The registration fees would only be redistributed back to people who paid it and the performance would be determined limited to this set of people. So in a way it's like a second optional contest independent of the contest to be the top predictor.
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jdb
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Re: 2006 WC Prediction Contest
« Reply #59 on: Dec 16th, 2005, 6:25pm » |
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I view the prediction contest as being something for fun. Having prize money and registration fees are not required.
I also feel the current scoring method for the prediction contest is great. It provides a nice balance between agressive and conservative predictions.
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