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Topic: 2006 WC Prediction Contest (Read 5357 times) |
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Fritzlein
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Re: 2006 WC Prediction Contest
« Reply #60 on: Dec 17th, 2005, 12:51pm » |
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on Dec 16th, 2005, 5:38pm, omar wrote:| But, I agree that since there is no need for a commitment, the registration fee should be optional. The registration fees would only be redistributed back to people who paid it and the performance would be determined limited to this set of people. So in a way it's like a second optional contest independent of the contest to be the top predictor. |
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I like the idea of an optional parallel contest, where the money of everyone who is involved would be redistributed in proportion to final point total. The current format where only the top three pay out tips the balance slightly towards aggressive predicting, but a proportional payout would tip the balance slightly towards conservative predicting. I wouldn't play in the parallel game, but I would enjoy watching it unfold nonetheless.
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Fritzlein
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Re: 2006 WC Prediction Contest
« Reply #61 on: Dec 17th, 2005, 12:53pm » |
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I see 8 predicted for Ryan and 7 predicted for Paul. Among the eight or so people still in contention, the prediction contest will be won by whoever guesses right in tossups like this and the games to come. Just being right will overwhelm the difference between predicting 55% or 65% when it is close. (I assume that anyone betting 100% at this point is already way behind and shooting for a miracle comeback.)
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| « Last Edit: Dec 17th, 2005, 12:55pm by Fritzlein » |
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Fritzlein
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Re: 2006 WC Prediction Contest
« Reply #62 on: Dec 18th, 2005, 4:55pm » |
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Well, I said that this would be decided by whoever guesses right, but 99of9 passed me up for third place even though we were each right three times and wrong once. He must have been a little more aggressive on the favorites, or a little more accurate on the moves.
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99of9
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Re: 2006 WC Prediction Contest
« Reply #63 on: Dec 18th, 2005, 8:16pm » |
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on Dec 18th, 2005, 4:55pm, Fritzlein wrote:| 99of9 passed me up for third place even though we were each right three times and wrong once. He must have been a little more aggressive on the favorites, or a little more accurate on the moves. |
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I did pretty badly on the moves. My main aggressiveness was on PMertens (70%), because although I'm his achilles heel, I know that deep down he's actually very good!
We are over a full game behind adanac now, with roughly 5 games left (although I agree a lot of those will be close). I'm still not betting 100%, but I'm considering it.
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| « Last Edit: Dec 18th, 2005, 8:19pm by 99of9 » |
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Fritzlein
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Re: 2006 WC Prediction Contest
« Reply #64 on: Dec 18th, 2005, 9:39pm » |
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I remembered belatedly that 99of9 also gained 21 points on me by winning his game 21 moves faster than I won mine! I'm going to have to rev up my playing style a bit if I'm going to creep back into third place. That, or else I'll have to lose this round so I'm no longer forbidden to predict the moves in my own games. 
Adanac could actually fall out of the money entirely, with four or five tossups remaining, but if people are betting heavily on me in an effort to make up ground, and he beats me, then he'll have it locked up for sure.
JDB may be 72 points behind, but being unconstrained in the betting makes his chances of winning the contest at least as good as Adanac's. If JDB bets 100% on me, then his probability of taking the lead is as high as my true probability of winning. (Which I'm hoping is at least 50%, but you never know.)
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| « Last Edit: Dec 18th, 2005, 9:43pm by Fritzlein » |
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Adanac
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Re: 2006 WC Prediction Contest
« Reply #65 on: Dec 19th, 2005, 9:52am » |
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on Dec 18th, 2005, 9:39pm, Fritzlein wrote:I remembered belatedly that 99of9 also gained 21 points on me by winning his game 21 moves faster than I won mine! I'm going to have to rev up my playing style a bit if I'm going to creep back into third place.
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If you alter your playing style to win the prediction contest rather than the tournament, I'll be very amused indeed 
You can attack with E+M on the left side, and I'll do likewise on the right and the winner will get 75 move points!
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Adanac
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Re: 2006 WC Prediction Contest
« Reply #66 on: Dec 19th, 2005, 12:58pm » |
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on Dec 16th, 2005, 5:38pm, omar wrote:Sorry I didn't explain everything in my previous post. I didn't mean that the prize money would come from the registration fees. I'll continue having a prize for the best predictors as long as I can afford it. I just thought that my proposal would make the contest even more intersting regardless of how you've done so far in the contest. The registration fee would be very nominal like $5.
But, I agree that since there is no need for a commitment, the registration fee should be optional. The registration fees would only be redistributed back to people who paid it and the performance would be determined limited to this set of people. So in a way it's like a second optional contest independent of the contest to be the top predictor.
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That's a good idea for keeping people interested until the end. You could even simultaneously save money and keep more people interested by awarding small weekly prizes. For example, reduce the top 3 overall prizes to $20, $10 & $5 plus a $5 weekly prize for the top score. It's less money from you, with greater or equal excitement for everyone.
It accomplishes the same goals as your propsoal since players in contention for 1st place must consider the alternate prizes as well. Multi-levelled strategizing - like the game itself.
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Fritzlein
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Re: 2006 WC Prediction Contest
« Reply #67 on: Dec 19th, 2005, 8:33pm » |
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A weekly prize would be a bit silly when there is only one game per week at the end of the tournament. It would remove the incentive to find a balance between aggressive and conservative betting, because only first wins, and minus a jillion is just as good as second place. In pursuit of a weekly prize, everyone would bet 100% on coin-flip games, probably even in rounds with two or three games left.
A payout proportional to the number of points above zero (across the entire tournament) would make for a much more interesting contest IMHO, and be a more effective way of keeping people engaged until the end.
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99of9
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Re: 2006 WC Prediction Contest
« Reply #68 on: Dec 20th, 2005, 6:08am » |
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Everyone should check that their predictions are still recorded for the next round. For some reason mine were reset, even though I'd entered them a few days ago.
I hope we get game times soon... and that my game is not early tomorrow morning!
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PMertens
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Re: 2006 WC Prediction Contest
« Reply #69 on: Dec 20th, 2005, 10:35am » |
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do not worry ... if it is early tomorrow morning we will both lose by forfeit
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Ryan_Cable
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Re: 2006 WC Prediction Contest
« Reply #70 on: Dec 21st, 2005, 5:26am » |
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The Round 4 scores:
1 PMertens . . 607 1.591
2 Adanac . . 503 1.163
3 jdb . . 440 0.903
4 Ryan_Cable . 431 0.866
5 99of9 . . 429 0.858
6 omar . . 420 0.821
7 Belbo . . 418 0.812
8 Elmo . . 400 0.738
9 RonWeasley . 389 0.693
10 Fritzlein . 373 0.627
11 carolaina . 360 0.573
12 Paul . . 325 0.429
13 naveed . . 229 0.034
14 acheron . . 137 -0.346
15 grey_0x2A . 25 -0.807
16 robinson . . 12 -0.861
17 MrBrain . . -84 -1.256
18 Aamir . . -84 -1.256
19 fritzlforpresident -84 -1.256
20 mohabbatse . -84 -1.256
21 BlackKnight . -134 -1.463
22 nbarriga . -169 -1.607
Mean 342.5
Median 220.9
StDEv 242.6
The total scores after round 4, with ~85% of the non-forfeit games finished:
1 Adanac . . 2174 1.403
2 jdb . . 2102 1.323
3 99of9 . . 1983 1.190
4 Fritzlein . 1948 1.150
5 Paul . . 1897 1.093
6 Ryan_Cable . 1750 0.929
7 Elmo . . 1656 0.824
8 Belbo . . 1204 0.318
9 MrBrain . . 1032 0.126
10 nbarriga . . 921 0.001
11 RonWeasley . 870 -0.055
12 acheron . . 830 -0.100
13 naveed . . 818 -0.114
14 grey_0x2A . 787 -0.148
15 robinson . . 783 -0.153
16 PMertens . . 720 -0.223
17 omar . . 703 -0.242
18 BlackKnight . 470 -0.503
19 Aamir . . -74 -1.111
20 fritzlforpresident -531 -1.623
21 carolaina . -781 -1.902
22 mohabbatse . -1033 -2.184
Mean 850.0
Median 919.5
StDEv 894.0
It is impressive that Adanac and I are in the top 4 for this round despite loosing our games. Did anyone pick all 4 games besides PMertens?
Counting Adanac as a favorite, the crowd predicted 1.136 upsets. Weighting down the upset predictions to remove the forced predictions, the crowd predicted 1.075 upsets. My ratings estimates predicted 0.79597 upsets.
I should be back in time to watch round 6, but just in case I would appreciate if someone would post the scores after round 5 to the forum, so we keep a record of every round.
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Fritzlein
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Re: 2006 WC Prediction Contest
« Reply #71 on: Jan 15th, 2006, 10:46am » |
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What a finish to the prediction contest! On the last game I bet moderately on Adanac to protect myself from 99of9 betting 100% on Adanac and passing me that way. When I saw that only two people had bet on Robinson, and I had inside information that Elmo was one of the two, I assumed that Robinson was the other player betting on himself, and I was therefore in good shape to hang on to third place. Imagine my shock to see the final standings, with 99of9 gaining a ton of points to pass me for third, and actually coming within 35 points of first! Apparently Robinson didn't bet at all in the final round, so it looks like I have to settle for my second 4th place in two prediction contests.
I had great fun the whole way, but I think the prediction contest was clearly marred by people dropping out or betting crazily because they felt they had nothing to play for in the later rounds. Next year, instead of giving $100 to the top three spots, I suggest that the entire prize money be split proportional to score among all the participants who end up with a positive score. That's the best way to foster the "never resign" mentality. Putting any special bonus at the top fosters all-or-nothing bets, which in turn tend to eliminate people from contention and make them lose heart.
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| « Last Edit: Jan 15th, 2006, 10:49am by Fritzlein » |
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99of9
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Re: 2006 WC Prediction Contest
« Reply #72 on: Jan 17th, 2006, 12:32am » |
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on Jan 15th, 2006, 10:46am, Fritzlein wrote:| Imagine my shock to see the final standings, with 99of9 gaining a ton of points to pass me for third, and actually coming within 35 points of first! Apparently Robinson didn't bet at all in the final round, so it looks like I have to settle for my second 4th place in two prediction contests. |
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You are still to be congratulated - you were a very strong adversary, and forced me to make the gamble first (I bet 90% in case you gambled 100% and we both lost).
Quote:| Next year, instead of giving $100 to the top three spots, I suggest that the entire prize money be split proportional to score among all the participants who end up with a positive score. That's the best way to foster the "never resign" mentality. Putting any special bonus at the top fosters all-or-nothing bets, which in turn tend to eliminate people from contention and make them lose heart. |
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I think special bonuses are ok, as long as those further down the table still have *some* incentive. I liked the 2005 system where there was (less) money for the top 3, but also a pool divided between the rest who scored positively.
I think those that many of those who bet all or nothing were generally making a mistake. I think a better way to seek the top 3 when you are significantly behind is to bet 55% on a slight underdog. If (s)he wins, you get around +140 points relative to the leaders who predicted the favourite. 140 points is enough to really add up if you get a couple of wins. Going for 100% means you are totally out of the comp if you miss out even once!
(Of course, in the final round I did exactly what I'm saying NOT to do, but it was the final round, and I could have a shot at 2nd place that way.)
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| « Last Edit: Jan 17th, 2006, 12:35am by 99of9 » |
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99of9
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Re: 2006 WC Prediction Contest
« Reply #73 on: Jan 17th, 2006, 12:46am » |
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on Nov 15th, 2005, 6:26pm, 99of9 wrote:| Interesting theory. My gut feeling is that humans gamble this way too much, and thus over many games, a steady rational performer will eventually come through . (Although your theory certainly has weight if you are a few points behind and nearing the end of the WC) |
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I can't help a bit of a gloat... you can't say I didn't give you warning about my strategy!
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Fritzlein
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Re: 2006 WC Prediction Contest
« Reply #74 on: Jan 17th, 2006, 11:06am » |
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on Jan 17th, 2006, 12:46am, 99of9 wrote:
I can't help a bit of a gloat... you can't say I didn't give you warning about my strategy! |
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Indeed you did give a warning. My initial bet was 65% on Robinson, trying to cover myself against any possible bet you would make on Robinson. I was 48 points ahead. Even if you bet 100% on Robinson and he wins, that nets you only 31 points. Conversely if you bet 55% on Robinson and he loses, that only nets you only 32 points on me. The only way I could lose with a 65% bet on Robinson is if you bet on Adanac.
But then I considered switching to 100% on Robinson in an effort to pass Adanac. As it turns out, if I had had the guts to make this bet, I would not only have passed Adanac into second place, but even JDB for first place! I had neglected to consider that JDB might place a moderately large wager on Adanac to protect himself from Adanac, so I mistakenly completely left first place money out of my reckoning.
Anyway, when I realized that I had a decent shot at second place, I psyched myself out. I thought that for me to bet on Robinson was the obvious move, and you would anticipate that I had bet on Robinson. I had entered my bet on Robinson early in the week, so I had days to imagine that you were reading my mind, and guessing exactly what I had done. I thought that you would first and foremost try to bet differently than me (on the theory that Adanac and JDB were out of your reach, so you would have no motivation to bet differently than them), and therefore you would counter my obvious Robinson bet by betting on Adanac yourself. And since I truly thought Adanac was better than 50% chance to win, I didn't want to give you better than even odds at passing me simply because I bet on the underdog. Finally, I switched to 70% on Adanac.
Clearly the moral of the story is not to think too much, for fear of outsmarting myself!
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| « Last Edit: Jan 17th, 2006, 11:08am by Fritzlein » |
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