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Topic: 2006 World Championship (Read 5933 times) |
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omar
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Arimaa player #2
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Re: 2006 World Championship
« Reply #30 on: Nov 22nd, 2005, 9:03am » |
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I really appreciate you guys letting me know when you find problems. Its very hard to avoid mistakes and you know from my games Im very prone to making blunders 
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omar
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Arimaa player #2
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Re: 2006 World Championship
« Reply #31 on: Nov 22nd, 2005, 9:08am » |
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The match up for round two looks like there's going to be some really exciting games. I was trying to fill out my predictions, but I just can't seem to decide on some of the games. This round will definitely spread out the contenders for the prediction contest.
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acheron
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Arimaa player #1613
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Re: 2006 World Championship
« Reply #32 on: Nov 22nd, 2005, 5:23pm » |
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6:00am match time.
That's just obscene.
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99of9
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Gnobby's creator (player #314)
 
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Re: 2006 World Championship
« Reply #33 on: Nov 22nd, 2005, 5:43pm » |
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I suggest that next year players are allowed to select times by slots starting 1 hour apart rather than 2 hours apart. Obviously we will have to make ourselves available for 60 instead of 30 slots, and would still need to be available for the length of a full game starting from the nominated time.
As we can see with acheron, one hour can make a lot of difference to the suitability of a time (he'd presumeably much rather play 7am than 6am), so I think that extra choice would help us get even more mutually agreeable timeslots.
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Fritzlein
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Arimaa player #706
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Re: 2006 World Championship
« Reply #34 on: Nov 22nd, 2005, 5:52pm » |
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on Nov 22nd, 2005, 5:23pm, acheron wrote:
Yeah, hard luck. That's the tradeoff for having it truly be a "world" championship, with players in all sorts of time zones. I personally think the internationalism of the server is one of its coolest features. (And incidentally, it makes me furious when U.S. baseball commentators say things like, "The Chicago White Sox are World Champions!" when they didn't play a single Japanese or Korean team. What part of "world" don't they understand?) But anyway, I'm crazy enough about Arimaa that a 6:00 game seems worth getting up for!
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Fritzlein
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Arimaa player #706
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Re: 2006 World Championship
« Reply #35 on: Nov 22nd, 2005, 5:57pm » |
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on Nov 22nd, 2005, 5:43pm, 99of9 wrote:| I suggest that next year players are allowed to select times by slots starting 1 hour apart rather than 2 hours apart. |
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I heartily second this suggestion. Already in the first round I could have used the ability to specify down to the hour. As it happened, my opponent was also from the U.S., so it worked out fine, but I can definitely see the utility in being able to select two 7:00 a.m. slots rather than having to pick one 6:00 a.m. slot.
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acheron
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Arimaa player #1613
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Re: 2006 World Championship
« Reply #36 on: Nov 22nd, 2005, 7:06pm » |
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Not being able to schedule at all for Sunday afternoons or Mondays is odd too.
Sunday afternoon would have been much preferable.
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| « Last Edit: Nov 22nd, 2005, 7:06pm by acheron » |
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BlackKnight
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Arimaa player #695
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Re: 2006 World Championship
« Reply #37 on: Nov 23rd, 2005, 11:34am » |
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Yes, that's a strange time.
If I'm right, you are in Pacific time?! In case you have time for example your Friday or Saturday evening after 6pm, I had no problem to switch to another match time.
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acheron
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Arimaa player #1613
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Re: 2006 World Championship
« Reply #38 on: Nov 23rd, 2005, 1:28pm » |
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That'd be fine if the system allows for it in some fashion. Otherwise, I'll just bite the bullet and set my alarm for 6:00 on Sunday.
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99of9
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Gnobby's creator (player #314)
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Re: 2006 World Championship
« Reply #39 on: Nov 23rd, 2005, 2:57pm » |
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Did you set 6am as one of your "most desired" options? If so, it's worth making use of the 3-level structure. Only put the times you would really like as left-column ticks.
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acheron
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Arimaa player #1613
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Re: 2006 World Championship
« Reply #40 on: Nov 23rd, 2005, 4:48pm » |
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Nah, it was on the "don't abuse me with this" setting.
I assume BlackKnight and I just had opposite settings is all.
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BlackKnight
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Arimaa player #695
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Re: 2006 World Championship
« Reply #41 on: Nov 23rd, 2005, 9:23pm » |
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Oh, sorry, Saturday will be the Information Theory Day here, but Sunday morning = your Saturday evening will be really no problem for me.
If that would be fine with you, maybe we can ask Omar to swap to a different time slot.
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Ryan_Cable
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Arimaa player #951
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Re: 2006 World Championship
« Reply #42 on: Nov 24th, 2005, 10:07pm » |
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The following tables list: probability of as of the start of round 2, additive change from the start of tournament, multiplicative change from the start of tournament.
With listed ratings:
StDev 0:
Fritzlein 0.64386 -0.00878 0.986546948
99of9 . 0.15914 -0.00439 0.973154773
Ryan_Cable 0.09345 0.00386 1.043085166
PMertens 0.03661 0.00183 1.052616446
Adanac . 0.02929 0.00198 1.072500915
robinson 0.02259 0.00300 1.153139357
Belbo . 0.01419 0.00249 1.212820513
omar . 0.00068 0.00019 1.387755102
Paul . 0.00009 -0.00012 0.428571429
BlackKnight 0.0001 -0.00005 0.666666667
naveed . 0 . -0.00001 0
megamau 0 . 0 . #DIV/0!
grey_0x2A 0 . 0 . #DIV/0!
jdb . 0 . 0 . #DIV/0!
acheron 0 . 0 . #DIV/0!
MrBrain 0 . 0 . #DIV/0!
StDev 50:
Fritzlein 0.60458 -0.00718 0.988263371
99of9 . 0.16611 -0.00402 0.97637101
Ryan_Cable 0.10238 0.00296 1.029772682
PMertens 0.04182 0.00294 1.075617284
Adanac . 0.03717 0.00125 1.034799555
robinson 0.02829 0.00205 1.078125
Belbo . 0.01826 0.00225 1.140537164
omar . 0.00113 0.00014 1.141414141
Paul . 0.00019 -0.00025 0.431818182
BlackKnight 0.00007 -0.00014 0.333333333
naveed . 0 . 0 . #DIV/0!
megamau 0 . 0 . #DIV/0!
grey_0x2A 0 . 0 . #DIV/0!
jdb . 0 . 0 . #DIV/0!
acheron 0 . 0 . #DIV/0!
MrBrain 0 . 0 . #DIV/0!
StDev 100:
Fritzlein 0.52139 -0.00689 0.986957674
99of9 . 0.17046 -0.00712 0.959905395
Ryan_Cable 0.11682 0.00168 1.014590933
PMertens 0.05800 0.00268 1.048445409
Adanac . 0.05186 0.00127 1.025103775
robinson 0.04359 0.00368 1.092207467
Belbo . 0.03278 0.00498 1.179136691
omar . 0.00347 0.00061 1.213286713
Paul . 0.00105 -0.00043 0.709459459
BlackKnight 0.00054 -0.00043 0.556701031
naveed . 0.00002 -0.00001 0.666666667
megamau 0.00002 0 . 1
grey_0x2A 0 . 0 . #DIV/0!
jdb . 0 . -0.00002 0
acheron 0 . 0 . #DIV/0!
MrBrain 0 . 0 . #DIV/0!
StDev 200:
Fritzlein 0.37380 0.00092 1.002467282
99of9 . 0.17104 0.00100 1.005880969
Ryan_Cable 0.13197 0.00290 1.022468428
PMertens 0.08470 0.00331 1.040668387
Adanac . 0.07989 0.00127 1.01615365
robinson 0.06969 0.00070 1.010146398
Belbo . 0.06007 0.00230 1.039813052
omar . 0.01638 0.00027 1.016759777
Paul . 0.00546 -0.00564 0.491891892
BlackKnight 0.00490 -0.00459 0.516332982
naveed . 0.00082 -0.00123 0.4
megamau 0.00060 -0.00067 0.472440945
grey_0x2A 0.00040 -0.00030 0.571428571
jdb . 0.00025 -0.00020 0.555555556
acheron 0.00003 -0.00003 0.5
MrBrain 0 . -0.00001 0
With me @ 1800, omar +100, and 99of9 +50:
StDev 0:
Fritzlein 0.59501 -0.01556 0.97451
99of9 . 0.27626 0.00135 1.00491
Ryan_Cable 0.00058 -0.00001 0.98305
PMertens 0.04081 0.00240 1.06248
Adanac . 0.03317 0.00232 1.07520
robinson 0.03218 0.00660 1.25801
Belbo . 0.01582 0.00187 1.13405
omar . 0.00601 0.00122 1.25469
Paul . 0.00009 -0.00015 0.375
BlackKnight 0.00007 -0.00004 0.63636
naveed . 0 . 0 . #DIV/0!
megamau 0 . 0 . #DIV/0!
grey_0x2A 0 . 0 . #DIV/0!
jdb . 0 . 0 . #DIV/0!
acheron 0 . 0 . #DIV/0!
MrBrain 0 . 0 . #DIV/0!
StDev 50:
Fritzlein 0.56549 -0.01622 0.97211
99of9 . 0.27747 -0.00110 0.99605
Ryan_Cable 0.00108 0.00033 1.44
PMertens 0.04827 0.00376 1.08447
Adanac . 0.04077 0.00440 1.12097
robinson 0.03792 0.00584 1.18204
Belbo . 0.01991 0.00160 1.08738
omar . 0.00878 0.00192 1.27988
Paul . 0.00013 -0.00040 0.24528
BlackKnight 0.00017 -0.00011 0.60714
naveed . 0.00001 -0.00002 0.33333
megamau 0 . 0 . #DIV/0!
grey_0x2A 0 . 0 . #DIV/0!
jdb . 0 . 0 . #DIV/0!
acheron 0 . 0 . #DIV/0!
MrBrain 0 . 0 . #DIV/0!
StDev 100:
Fritzlein 0.50177 -0.01208 0.97649
99of9 . 0.27045 -0.00313 0.98855
Ryan_Cable 0.00233 -0.00014 0.94331
PMertens 0.06410 0.00407 1.06779
Adanac . 0.05499 0.00224 1.04246
robinson 0.05310 0.00678 1.14637
Belbo . 0.03420 0.00175 1.05392
omar . 0.01736 0.00181 1.11639
Paul . 0.00098 -0.00074 0.56976
BlackKnight 0.00065 -0.00049 0.57017
naveed . 0.00003 -0.00003 0.5
megamau 0.00004 0.00003 4
grey_0x2A 0 . -0.00004 0
jdb . 0 . -0.00003 0
acheron 0 . 0 . #DIV/0!
MrBrain 0 . 0 . #DIV/0!
With me @ 1800, omar +100, and 99of9 +75:
StDev 0:
Fritzlein 0.55856 -0.01232 0.97841
99of9 . 0.32908 0.00062 1.00188
Ryan_Cable 0.00051 0.00005 1.10869
PMertens 0.03423 0.00007 1.00204
Adanac . 0.02995 0.00341 1.12848
robinson 0.02880 0.00607 1.26704
Belbo . 0.01378 0.00156 1.12765
omar . 0.00489 0.00069 1.16428
Paul . 0.00013 -0.00011 0.54166
BlackKnight 0.00007 -0.00003 0.7
naveed . 0 . 0 . #DIV/0!
megamau 0 . -0.00001 0
grey_0x2A 0 . 0 . #DIV/0!
jdb . 0 . 0 . #DIV/0!
acheron 0 . 0 . #DIV/0!
MrBrain 0 . 0 . #DIV/0!
StDev 50:
Fritzlein 0.53198 -0.01619 0.97046
99of9 . 0.32650 0.00163 1.00501
Ryan_Cable 0.00077 -0.00010 0.88505
PMertens 0.04430 0.00351 1.08605
Adanac . 0.03649 0.00312 1.09349
robinson 0.03370 0.00569 1.20314
Belbo . 0.01819 0.00153 1.09183
omar . 0.00771 0.00103 1.15419
Paul . 0.00022 -0.00013 0.62857
BlackKnight 0.00013 -0.00010 0.56521
naveed . 0 . 0 . #DIV/0!
megamau 0 . 0 . #DIV/0!
grey_0x2A 0.00001 0.00001 #DIV/0!
jdb . 0 . 0 . #DIV/0!
acheron 0 . 0 . #DIV/0!
MrBrain 0 . 0 . #DIV/0!
StDev 100:
Fritzlein 0.47452 -0.01821 0.96304
99of9 . 0.31411 0.00002 1.00006
Ryan_Cable 0.00231 0.00019 1.08962
PMertens 0.05872 0.00249 1.04428
Adanac . 0.05207 0.00472 1.09968
robinson 0.05000 0.00716 1.16713
Belbo . 0.03113 0.00277 1.09767
omar . 0.01594 0.00232 1.17033
Paul . 0.00062 -0.00085 0.42176
BlackKnight 0.00058 -0.00050 0.53703
naveed . 0 . -0.00005 0
megamau 0 . -0.00003 0
grey_0x2A 0 . -0.00001 0
jdb . 0 . -0.00002 0
acheron 0 . 0 . #DIV/0!
MrBrain 0 . 0 . #DIV/0!
With me @ 1800, omar +100, and 99of9 +100:
StDev 0:
Fritzlein 0.51804 -0.00870 0.98348
99of9 . 0.38224 -0.00164 0.99572
Ryan_Cable 0.00049 0.00015 1.44117
PMertens 0.03178 0.00099 1.03215
Adanac . 0.02647 0.00281 1.11876
robinson 0.02388 0.00363 1.17925
Belbo . 0.01226 0.00188 1.18111
omar . 0.00466 0.00090 1.23936
Paul . 0.00013 0.00001 1.08333
BlackKnight 0.00005 -0.00002 0.71428
naveed . 0 . -0.00001 0
megamau 0 . 0 . #DIV/0!
grey_0x2A 0 . 0 . #DIV/0!
jdb . 0 . 0 . #DIV/0!
acheron 0 . 0 . #DIV/0!
MrBrain 0 . 0 . #DIV/0!
StDev 50:
Fritzlein 0.49571 -0.01584 0.96903
99of9 . 0.37709 0.00151 1.00402
Ryan_Cable 0.00069 -0.00001 0.98571
PMertens 0.03951 0.00328 1.09053
Adanac . 0.03236 0.00270 1.09103
robinson 0.03146 0.00608 1.23955
Belbo . 0.01589 0.00077 1.05092
omar . 0.00697 0.00173 1.33015
Paul . 0.00019 -0.00013 0.59375
BlackKnight 0.00013 -0.00006 0.68421
naveed . 0 . -0.00003 0
megamau 0 . 0 . #DIV/0!
grey_0x2A 0 . 0 . #DIV/0!
jdb . 0 . 0 . #DIV/0!
acheron 0 . 0 . #DIV/0!
MrBrain 0 . 0 . #DIV/0!
StDev 100:
Fritzlein 0.45188 -0.01143 0.97532
99of9 . 0.35506 -0.00149 0.99582
Ryan_Cable 0.00194 0.00022 1.12790
PMertens 0.05559 0.00318 1.06067
Adanac . 0.04744 0.00364 1.08310
robinson 0.04486 0.00487 1.12178
Belbo . 0.02799 0.00051 1.01855
omar . 0.01403 0.00170 1.13787
Paul . 0.00068 -0.00060 0.53125
BlackKnight 0.00048 -0.00055 0.46601
naveed . 0 . -0.00004 0
megamau 0.00004 0 . 1
grey_0x2A 0.00001 0 . 1
jdb . 0 . -0.00001 0
acheron 0 . 0 . #DIV/0!
MrBrain 0 . 0 . #DIV/0!
The probabilities didn’t change much from round 1, since there were no upsets. (Additively) Fritzlein lost ~1.5%, since he had a good chance of getting to play the winner of a round 1 upset. robinson gained ~0.6% due to my win over jdb, and virtually all of the rest goes to the undefeated sub-titans. jdb probably took a huge multiplicative hit to his chances, but it vanishes into the noise. The other losers seem to have suffered a ~50% multiplicative decrease in their chances.
I also calculated the probability density of upsets for round 2 (counting robinson as a favorite):
0 0.08039
1 0.25946
2 0.33456
3 0.22272
4 0.083008
5 0.017639
6 0.0020765
7 0.00012352
8 0.0000028689
Expectation 2.03035
If megamau forfeits then the probability density becomes:
0 0.14352
1 0.35050
2 0.32204
3 0.14474
4 0.034532
5 0.0043738
6 0.00027253
7 0.0000065225
Expectation 1.59050
Note that none of this implies that one should predict 2 upsets or any upsets for that matter. Your expected absolute score is always decreased by not predicting for the person you believe has >=50% chance of winning. I disclaim any and all responsibility for anyone who uses any of my numbers and/or statements to make predictions!
PS Omar, have you heard anything from megamau?
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Fritzlein
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Arimaa player #706
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Re: 2006 World Championship
« Reply #43 on: Nov 25th, 2005, 12:24pm » |
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So if there were expected to be 2.03 upsets, and there have been two upsets already, there is only a three percent chance of another upset. I should bet 100% on the favorites in all five of the remaining games, right Ryan? 
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| « Last Edit: Nov 25th, 2005, 12:25pm by Fritzlein » |
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Fritzlein
Forum Guru
Arimaa player #706
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Posts: 5928
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Re: 2006 World Championship
« Reply #44 on: Nov 25th, 2005, 12:28pm » |
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on Nov 24th, 2005, 10:07pm, Ryan_Cable wrote:| PS Omar, have you heard anything from megamau? |
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Megamau played a game today (Friday) so it looks like good odds he will play on Sunday, giving us a full 16 participants, so that we break the old record by even more.
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