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Topic: 2011 Postal Mixer (Read 16507 times) |
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Hippo
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Re: 2011 Postal Mixer
« Reply #165 on: Nov 18th, 2011, 7:31pm » |
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on Nov 17th, 2011, 6:36pm, rbarreira wrote:
52s eb4n eb5n hh1w rh5s might be worth looking at.
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I will be forced to return back to Eg1 hh1, with the same attacking steps. Yes I have considered both this and the played attacking options (and I didn't liked my position).
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rbarreira
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Re: 2011 Postal Mixer
« Reply #166 on: Nov 19th, 2011, 7:32am » |
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on Nov 18th, 2011, 7:21pm, Hippo wrote:I would like to know analysis of position prior 42g.
The Cat invasion to g6 when elephant had to solve west problems seems to me is forced win. Unfortunately I have lost at least one deciding step on 42g forcing me to lose 2 more steps next move ... . |
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My bot was consistently sticking with 42g Rb5e Hb4n rb6e rc6x Hb5n, so I used it to analyze the position after that move, and it reported a forced loss. Here is the variation:
42g Rb5e Hb4n rb6e rc6x Hb5n
42s ef5w ee5w rg6s rh3s
43g Ce1e Cf1n Cf2e Cg2n
43s ed5e Rc5e ee5e Rd5e
44g Rd1n Rd2n Rd3n Rd4n
44s Re5s ef5w ee5n ee6w
45g Re4w Rd5w Rc5n Rc6n
45s ed6n Rc7s ed7w
46g Rc6e Rd6e Re6n Re7n
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Fritzlein
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Re: 2011 Postal Mixer
« Reply #167 on: Nov 19th, 2011, 8:09am » |
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on Nov 19th, 2011, 7:32am, rbarreira wrote:42g Rb5e Hb4n rb6e rc6x Hb5n
42s ef5w ee5w rg6s rh3s
43g Ce1e Cf1n Cf2e Cg2n
43s ed5e Rc5e ee5e Rd5e
44g Rd1n Rd2n Rd3n Rd4n
44s Re5s ef5w ee5n ee6w
45g Re4w Rd5w Rc5n Rc6n
45s ed6n Rc7s ed7w
46g Rc6e Rd6e Re6n Re7n |
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Thanks for the analysis. It's interesting to know there is a goal in five. The given variation is weird, though. A human would intuit that the given 43s is hopeless, and therefore capture the rabbit in c3 anyway. Even if that loses, it is a critical line.
But at least a strategic idea is clearly shown: the gold cat is both defending against silver goal and threatening to create a goal. There is no need to move the d1-rabbit east; indeed it proves to be a powerful attacker up the middle.
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| « Last Edit: Nov 19th, 2011, 8:12am by Fritzlein » |
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rbarreira
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Re: 2011 Postal Mixer
« Reply #168 on: Nov 19th, 2011, 8:16am » |
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on Nov 19th, 2011, 8:09am, Fritzlein wrote:
The given variation is weird, though. A human would intuit that the given 43s is hopeless, and therefore capture the rabbit in c3 anyway. Even if that loses, it is a critical line.
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In that variation, 44g Cg3n Cg4e rg5s Rh5w is goal in 2.
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| « Last Edit: Nov 19th, 2011, 8:16am by rbarreira » |
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Fritzlein
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Re: 2011 Postal Mixer
« Reply #169 on: Nov 19th, 2011, 8:38am » |
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on Nov 19th, 2011, 8:16am, rbarreira wrote:| In that variation, 44g Cg3n Cg4e rg5s Rh5w is goal in 2. |
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Ah, yes, in expert commentary that sort of trivial detail is omitted, but of course I didn't see the winning move. 
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Fritzlein
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Re: 2011 Postal Mixer
« Reply #170 on: Nov 22nd, 2011, 2:26pm » |
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on May 1st, 2011, 1:56pm, Fritzlein wrote:| Caution: Since these ratings are based on few games played far apart in time, they could swing wildly based on the results of a single event. In fact, I'll bet someone in this list has moved over 200 points by tournament end. I'll paste some current WHRP ratings here so we can compare later for an idea of the volatility: |
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The WHRP ratings have been updated for the first time since the end of the Postal Mixer, so we can see if my prediction panned out:
Player . Before After Change
---------- ------ ------ -------
Fritzlein 2772.9 2738.1 - 34.8
chessandgo 2537.8 2612.3 + 74.5
Nombril 2511.8 2370.2 - 141.6
Adanac . 2367.1 2215.0 - 152.1
Hippo . 2253.7 2395.7 + 142.0
RonWeasley 2249.5 2259.8 + 10.3
ChrisB . 2174.4 2172.5 - 1.9
ocmiente 2158.6 2050.8 - 107.8
Tuks . 2097.8 2239.5 + 141.7
blue22 . 2040.7 2056.1 + 15.4
mistre . 2035.9 2187.4 + 151.5
camelback 2007.1 2012.5 + 5.4
omar . 1990.5 1992.9 + 2.4
novacat 1839.3 2037.9 + 198.6
toby1kenobi 1749.8 1706.9 - 42.9
My prediction of a 200-point swing did not materialize, but the volatility was nevertheless quite high, with six of fifteen players moving by more than 140 points up or down. That should be a caution against anyone relying on WHRP ratings to predict game results. Of course, these ratings are influenced by all postal games, not just those of the Postal Mixer. I, however, don't play any other postal games (except my quasi-event game against briareus this year), so my drop of 35 Elo is entirely attributable to my 11-1 record. Apparently my pre-tournament rating was so stratospheric that I could not have maintained it except with a 12-0 record. Talk about unrealistic expectations! But I suppose that is what chessandgo must feel as we approach the World Championship: if he takes second place everyone will think it was a bad tournament for him.
Hippo's final-game victory over Nombril sealed a 283-point relative swing between the two of them: Nombril started rated 258 Elo higher, but Hippo ended rated 25 higher.
The Postal Mixer is not designed to produce a clear winner, but this chart is one way to designate a winner, and the winner is... NOVACAT
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Hippo
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Re: 2011 Postal Mixer
« Reply #171 on: Nov 22nd, 2011, 5:33pm » |
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on Nov 19th, 2011, 7:32am, rbarreira wrote:
My bot was consistently sticking with 42g Rb5e Hb4n rb6e rc6x Hb5n, so I used it to analyze the position after that move, and it reported a forced loss. Here is the variation:
42g Rb5e Hb4n rb6e rc6x Hb5n
42s ef5w ee5w rg6s rh3s
43g Ce1e Cf1n Cf2e Cg2n
43s ed5e Rc5e ee5e Rd5e
44g Rd1n Rd2n Rd3n Rd4n
44s Re5s ef5w ee5n ee6w
45g Re4w Rd5w Rc5n Rc6n
45s ed6n Rc7s ed7w
46g Rc6e Rd6e Re6n Re7n
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Thanks ... so there was even faster goal than I expected.
My plan was to go with rabbit west, but that was not fast enough and there was a goal counterthreat.
But freezing cat was crucial and Rc5 prevents Horse freezing. ... Why was I so blind ... .
I could think for more than a week on it!
I felt somehow exhausted ... but a week break could help in such a case.
on Nov 22nd, 2011, 2:26pm, Fritzlein wrote:
Hippo's final-game victory over Nombril sealed a 283-point relative swing between the two of them: Nombril started rated 258 Elo higher, but Hippo ended rated 25 higher.
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Yes, I am now on 3rd place after You and chessandgo. Seems to me the only way from here is down ... .
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| « Last Edit: Nov 22nd, 2011, 5:41pm by Hippo » |
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novacat
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Re: 2011 Postal Mixer
« Reply #172 on: Nov 22nd, 2011, 6:20pm » |
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on Nov 22nd, 2011, 2:26pm, Fritzlein wrote:
The Postal Mixer is not designed to produce a clear winner, but this chart is one way to designate a winner, and the winner is... NOVACAT |
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Thanks Fritz. I may be the most improved on the list, but I'm pretty sure you are the winner at 10-1 (11-1 with the game against briareus).
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Fritzlein
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Re: 2011 Postal Mixer
« Reply #173 on: Feb 10th, 2012, 3:17pm » |
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Year . . 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Players . . 16 19 20 15 14 42 29
Games . . 80 95 85 84 70 147 141
Mismatches . 9 5 3 21 19 23 16
Not Finished . 20 31 18 8 4 31 49
% Mismatches . 11 5 4 25 27 16 11
% Not Finished 25 33 21 10 6 21 35
This was the worst year ever for incomplete games. I confess with shame that I added one to the total by resigning against mistre in a fit of pique, but most of the incomplete game total comes from folks who abandoned the tournament rather than from resignations.
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