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Topic: 2011 Arimaa Challenge (Read 9713 times) |
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Arimabuff
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Arimaa player #2764
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Re: 2011 Arimaa Challenge
« Reply #60 on: Apr 1st, 2011, 7:52am » |
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Does that mean that Sharp is a bot's bot?
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aaaa
Forum Guru
Arimaa player #958
Posts: 768
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Re: 2011 Arimaa Challenge
« Reply #61 on: Apr 1st, 2011, 10:53am » |
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Sharp really got unlucky here as all five uncounted games are wins of its, undoubtedly giving it a better performance rating than Marwin.
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Hippo
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Arimaa player #4450
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Re: 2011 Arimaa Challenge
« Reply #62 on: Apr 1st, 2011, 11:36am » |
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Unfortunately I have spent all last nights making tax report ... . I hope these bots would be around for several more days ...
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omar
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Arimaa player #2
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Re: 2011 Arimaa Challenge
« Reply #63 on: Apr 1st, 2011, 12:33pm » |
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Yes, too bad some of the players did not get to finish their game against marwin. It definitely was unlucky for sharp. The first bot you play against is picked randomly, so it's just an unlucky coincidence that sharp was picked as the first bot against opponents that did not continue playing more games.
Both bot are very good and this is perhaps the closest screening period I've seen. The defenders will have to very carefully this year.
Thanks everyone who played against the screening bots. Your games will be very helpful to the defenders.
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chessandgo
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Arimaa player #1889
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Re: 2011 Arimaa Challenge
« Reply #64 on: Apr 2nd, 2011, 3:48am » |
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on Apr 1st, 2011, 11:36am, Hippo wrote:| Unfortunately I have spent all last nights making tax report ... |
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Won too much in the spectator contest? 
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Fritzlein
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Arimaa player #706
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Re: 2011 Arimaa Challenge
« Reply #65 on: Apr 3rd, 2011, 11:46pm » |
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I have updated the table with the final performance ratings.
Year Pairs Decisive Winner / Score / Perf Loser / Score / Perf
---- ----- -------- --------------------- --------------------
2007 12 . 2 . bomb / 2 / 2087 . Zombie / 0 / 1876
2008 16 . 7 . bomb / 6 / 1918 . sharp / 1 / 1576
2009 23 . 7 clueless / 5 / 1910 . GnoBot / 2 / 1792
2010 25 . 11 marwin / 6 / 2065 clueless / 5 / 1960
2011 40 . 11 marwin / 6 / 2110 . sharp / 5 / 2109
It is odd that marwin at 27-13 would have a higher performance rating than sharp at 31-14. For winning 27 instead of 26 out of the 40 pairs that counted, marwin gained an extra 29 Elo points. For winning 5 unpaired games that didn't count (Sconibulus, camelback, piv, negerhart, Eltripas), sharp gained an extra 32 Elo points. So why didn't sharp win the performance rating battle by three points instead of losing by one point?
Alas, the swing of four Elo was caused by the random fluctuations of gameroom ratings. Every player's rating changes from game to game, so the bots get slightly different credit for playing the same opponents. That smidgin of randomness is a reminder to be cautious about reading too much into the performance ratings.
Nevertheless, although uncertainty bedevils all statistics, I feel in my gut that the bots are truly stronger in 2011 than they were in 2010. I was hopeful that humans had stolen a march on bots this year, and that our advantage had perhaps even widened, but I no longer believe that. I am now afraid that the tide has turned for good, and the gap will shrink yearly until humanity can no longer hold out. The only question is whether the lines will cross before 2020 or after.
On the other hand, comparing marwin's performance rating of 2110 to the WHR ratings, there are still nineteen humans rated higher, thirteen of them active. The growth of the Arimaa community and the improvement of established members is a reason to hope. As long as we keep having an infusion of fresh energy and ideas, we just might deepen our own strategic understanding beyond what the bots can keep up with.
I am grateful to everyone who participated in the screening this year. Forty completed pairs shattered the old record of twenty-five. That's tremendous participation. I don't think marwin changed much from last year, but even if it had, its thirteen losses in the screening would give me plenty to study while preparing to defend the Challenge. Thanks, guys!
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chessandgo
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Arimaa player #1889
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Re: 2011 Arimaa Challenge
« Reply #66 on: Apr 4th, 2011, 4:57am » |
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Oh yes, last year I felt like the bots had already improved by a decent amount, but this year's improvement appears even more spectacular. I'm not that pessimistic wrt the challenge though, maybe the bots can improve just as much next year, but I'd be very surprised if they can keep up this pace for several years. Well, we sure have many over-skilled developers around, so maybe they'll prove me wrong
Good luck for the challenge games!
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Fritzlein
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Arimaa player #706
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Re: 2011 Arimaa Challenge
« Reply #67 on: Apr 9th, 2011, 3:34pm » |
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We should start keeping audience records for this event too. There were 34 peak listeners for Arimabuff and omar commentating on my game against marwin. It's a great compliment to the commentators to keep an audience engaged for more than two and a half hours, especially with the position in "mop up mode" for so long. Before this year's World Championship, an audience of 34 would have been a record turnout for any event; now it has to play second fiddle to a record of 44 simultaneous listeners and 52 logins. Still, that is a fantastic turnout for the man vs. machine match which (we hope) should be lopsided in humanity's favor, and a far larger audience than for any previous Arimaa Challenge.
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| « Last Edit: Apr 9th, 2011, 3:40pm by Fritzlein » |
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omar
Forum Guru
Arimaa player #2
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Re: 2011 Arimaa Challenge
« Reply #68 on: Apr 9th, 2011, 6:13pm » |
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I think we had a peak of about 27 during Toby's game; which is very good for an early morning game.
I didn't get much chance to post links to the live game on other forums. This probably would have increased the listeners by at least 10. I usually post to the the appropriate section of the forum on sites like BoardGameGeek.com, chess.com, LittleGolem.net, etc.
I found that posting the link directly to the game window near the start of the game works best. If you know of other forums we can post to, please help out. I've posted a short link to the next game in the commentary spreadsheet.
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Fritzlein
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Arimaa player #706
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Re: 2011 Arimaa Challenge
« Reply #69 on: Apr 9th, 2011, 6:33pm » |
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on Apr 9th, 2011, 6:13pm, omar wrote:| I've posted a short link to the next game in the commentary spreadsheet. |
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I just found out that the ".ly" in http://bit.ly/e7ZR4b stands for Libya. I wonder if these URLs will disappear because nobody wants to be even remotely associated with Qaddafi.
on Apr 9th, 2011, 6:13pm, omar wrote:| I didn't get much chance to post links to the live game on other forums. This probably would have increased the listeners by at least 10. I usually post to the the appropriate section of the forum on sites like BoardGameGeek.com, chess.com, LittleGolem.net, etc. |
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Wow, now I am even more impressed with the high turnout. I had assumed it was due at least in part to active advertising. I guess the live commentary and the man vs. machine clash is a hotter commodity than I thought. Apparently the games don't have to be dramatic (and I hope humans win all nine in boring fashion) as long as the announcers find something interesting to say.
Knowing the potential size of the audience makes me want to jump in and help The_Jeh tomorrow. I hope it's OK with him if I flit in and out of the commentary booth on short notice.
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| « Last Edit: Apr 9th, 2011, 6:41pm by Fritzlein » |
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The_Jeh
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Arimaa player #634
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Re: 2011 Arimaa Challenge
« Reply #70 on: Apr 9th, 2011, 11:16pm » |
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on Apr 9th, 2011, 6:33pm, Fritzlein wrote:
Knowing the potential size of the audience makes me want to jump in and help The_Jeh tomorrow. I hope it's OK with him if I flit in and out of the commentary booth on short notice. |
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Like I said, I would appreciate someone else there, too. It's hard to keep talking at 2 minutes/move.
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| « Last Edit: Apr 9th, 2011, 11:17pm by The_Jeh » |
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Fritzlein
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Arimaa player #706
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Posts: 5928
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Re: 2011 Arimaa Challenge
« Reply #71 on: Apr 9th, 2011, 11:25pm » |
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on Apr 9th, 2011, 11:16pm, The_Jeh wrote:| Like I said, I would appreciate someone else there, too. It's hard to keep talking at 2 minutes/move. |
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Great, I'll try to be there with you, hopefully for the whole game.
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Arimabuff
Forum Guru
Arimaa player #2764
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Posts: 589
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Re: 2011 Arimaa Challenge
« Reply #72 on: Apr 10th, 2011, 12:13am » |
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I may drop by but I won't intervene unless asked to, given the presence of Fritz there already.
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Fritzlein
Forum Guru
Arimaa player #706
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Posts: 5928
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Re: 2011 Arimaa Challenge
« Reply #73 on: Apr 10th, 2011, 3:12pm » |
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on Apr 9th, 2011, 3:34pm, Fritzlein wrote:| There were 34 peak listeners for Arimabuff and omar commentating on my game against marwin. |
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It didn't take long to break that record. We had a peak of 40 listeners for The_Jeh, Arimabuff, and myself commentating on rabbits victory over marwin. Thanks, omar, for advertising and getting the radio working and recording and uploading the capture. What fun!
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omar
Forum Guru
Arimaa player #2
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Posts: 1003
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Re: 2011 Arimaa Challenge
« Reply #74 on: Apr 10th, 2011, 3:27pm » |
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on Apr 10th, 2011, 3:12pm, Fritzlein wrote:
It didn't take long to break that record. We had a peak of 40 listeners for The_Jeh, Arimabuff, and myself commentating on rabbits victory over marwin. Thanks, omar, for advertising and getting the radio working and recording and uploading the capture. What fun! |
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Thanks for joining the commentary. It always makes the game more enjoyable listening to your commentary.
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| « Last Edit: Apr 10th, 2011, 3:40pm by omar » |
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