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The_Jeh
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College Football
« on: Oct 17th, 2007, 5:52pm » |
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Just for fun, I decided to create my own computer model for ranking sports teams, especially college football. I spent an unhealthy amount of time entering the results of hundreds of games, and the top 25 results are as follows:
Through Week 7
1. South Florida 6-0
2. Ohio State 7-0
3. LSU 6-1
4. Boston College 7-0
5. Arizona State 7-0
6. Kentucky 6-1
7. Kansas 6-0
8. Missouri 6-1
9. Oregon 5-1
10. South Carolina 6-1
11. Oklahoma 6-1
12. Virginia Tech 6-1
13. Hawaii 7-0
14. Cincinnati 6-1
15. Virginia 6-1
16. West Virginia 5-1
17. Auburn 5-2
18. California 5-1
19. Boise State 5-1
20. Texas Tech 6-1
21. Kansas State 4-2
22. Illinois 5-2
23. Connecticut 5-1
24. Tennessee 4-2
25. Florida 4-2
Where's USC? Umm... #35. I'm not sure whether that's accurate, but, objectively, my system isn't impressed with USC's loss to Stanford. To be honest, even without the loss, USC's rank only jumps to #11. I can't decide whether that supports or discredits my amateurish model.
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| « Last Edit: Oct 17th, 2007, 5:53pm by The_Jeh » |
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Fritzlein
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Re: College Football
« Reply #1 on: Oct 17th, 2007, 7:11pm » |
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Did you get the data from Peter Wolfe? http://prwolfe.bol.ucla.edu/cfootball/scores.htm
It should be possible to ingest the results automatically every week, to save the tedious data entry. If you intend on doing this regularly, definitely inform Kenneth Massey of your intention, so you can see how your rankings correlate with all the other computer rankings. http://www.masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm
It is interesting to me that computer rankings tend to put LSU nearer the top than the AP poll and other polls. One of the traditional criticisms of polls is that undefeated teams are rewarded beyond their desserts (i.e. without proper consideration of strength of schedule) and it looks like this difference is being borne out again this season.
The further the season progresses, the more I trust computer rankings, and the less I trust the human polls.
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| « Last Edit: Oct 18th, 2007, 11:53pm by Fritzlein » |
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Fritzlein
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Re: College Football
« Reply #2 on: Oct 17th, 2007, 8:22pm » |
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I see on Massey's site that the consensus computer ranking for USC is #22, but that one rating system (the RPI) has them all the way down at #59, so I don't think it invalidates your methods by any means that USC is at #35.
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The_Jeh
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Re: College Football
« Reply #3 on: Oct 18th, 2007, 12:11am » |
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Thanks for the links. They're gold.
I do not wish to lose all credibility, but admittedly, I am not talented enough to convert Wolfe's excellent table into something useful to me. Suffice it to say, I have an "inexplicable" desire to do things the hard way, but it won't be that bad now that I can enter one week's worth at a time.
I don't know if Massey needs me, but I'll definitely post my top 25 here each Sunday or Monday, and we'll see how well it callibrates itself.
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| « Last Edit: Oct 18th, 2007, 12:40am by The_Jeh » |
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mistre
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Re: College Football
« Reply #4 on: Oct 18th, 2007, 8:10am » |
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And people say that USF is over-ranked, and you have them at #1!
I live in Tampa, FL and work at USF and as you can imagine there is alot of buzz going on about the season they are having. They play a tough Rutgers team tonight, so let's see if they can stay undefeated.
Nice work on your rankings system - looks pretty good to me.
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The_Jeh
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Re: College Football
« Reply #5 on: Oct 18th, 2007, 10:50pm » |
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South Florida loses 27-30. I'm really sorry. To be honest, I hoped they would take it all the way undefeated - a team that has only been around for 11 years and reached #2 the first year it was ever ranked.
With that one game added, USF drops to #5 in my ranking. Rutgers rises to #22. A few other teams also change places. However, don't count on this staying this way after I enter the games that are to take place this weekend.
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| « Last Edit: Oct 18th, 2007, 11:14pm by The_Jeh » |
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mistre
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Re: College Football
« Reply #6 on: Oct 19th, 2007, 8:36am » |
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I think they fall further than #5 - I am guessing somewhere between 10 and 15.
After other teams play this weekend, your ranking might reflect the same.
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The_Jeh
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Re: College Football
« Reply #7 on: Oct 21st, 2007, 6:27pm » |
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Through Week 8, with previous rank in parentheses:
1. Ohio State 8-0 (2)
2. LSU 7-1 (3)
3. Boston College 7-0 (4)
4. South Florida 6-1 (1)
5. Arizona State 7-0 (5)
6. Missouri 6-1 (8)
7. Oregon 6-1 (9)
8. Kansas 7-0 (7)
9. Virginia 7-1 (15)
10. Virginia Tech 6-1 (12)
11. Oklahoma 7-1 (11)
12. Connecticut 6-1 (23)
13. Hawaii 7-0 (13)
14. Florida 5-2 (25)
15. Boise State 6-1 (19)
16. Kentucky 6-2 (6)
17. West Virginia 6-1 (16)
18. Michigan 6-2 (NR)
19. Texas A&M 6-2 (NR)
20. South Carolina 6-2 (10)
21. Alabama 6-2 (NR)
22. Rutgers 5-2 (NR)
23. Georgia 5-2 (NR)
24. Wake Forest 5-2 (NR)
25. Auburn 5-3 (17)
Dropped: Cincinnati 6-2 (14), California 5-2 (18), Texas Tech 6-2 (20), Kansas State 4-3 (21), Illinois 5-3 (22), Tennessee 4-3 (24)
I see no problem with South Florida only dropping to #4, as now Rutgers is ranked. I disagree with including Texas A&M.
When I count the number of games I should have included, I always come up with two fewer than the number of games my program says I've entered. I've checked and checked, but I cannot find the two phantom games. However, I don't think they would affect the rankings. I've gone over each team's W-L record, and everything looks to be in order. I really have no idea where the two games are coming from.
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| « Last Edit: Oct 21st, 2007, 10:33pm by The_Jeh » |
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Fritzlein
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Re: College Football
« Reply #8 on: Oct 21st, 2007, 11:38pm » |
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One thing that sticks out is ranking Missouri #6. That's much higher than either the human polls or other computer rankings.
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The_Jeh
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Re: College Football
« Reply #9 on: Oct 22nd, 2007, 8:07am » |
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Well, their only loss is to Oklahoma, ranked #4 by the AP and USA Today. And on the Massey tables, Burdorf gives Missouri #1. I might be inclined to agree with you, but I think they could be underrated, too.
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| « Last Edit: Oct 22nd, 2007, 8:14am by The_Jeh » |
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The_Jeh
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Re: College Football
« Reply #10 on: Oct 23rd, 2007, 1:05am » |
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Okay, I'm going to let the cat out of the bag and admit that I've been bluffing all along. What I said was a computer model was really just what Massey would call an "Ad hoc calculator feasible formula system." Here's how simple these rankings have been:
For each game a team wins, its performance score (PS) increases by (1+opponent's total wins)/(1+opponent's total games). For each game a team loses, its PS decreases by (1+opponent's total losses)/(1+opponent's total games). A team's rating is then (1+PS/(games played)).
I am amazed that this simple formula produced such good results. However, I recognize how much it leaves to be desired. Therefore, lest you think I am incapable of producing a true computer ranking, I've created what Massey would call an "advanced computer system," one that "Repeatedly recalculate[s] the ratings until they stabilize." This time, I have discovered a way to convert Peter Wolfe's list into a useful format, so the results through week 8 incorporate 719 teams and 2643 games.
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| « Last Edit: Oct 23rd, 2007, 10:07am by The_Jeh » |
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The_Jeh
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Re: College Football
« Reply #11 on: Oct 23rd, 2007, 1:24am » |
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Allow me to introduce the new and improved rating system. After the W-L record appears the team's rating and schedule strength, respectively.
1. Boston College 7-0 216.665 / 116.665
2. LSU 7-1 211.369 / 136.369
3. South Florida 6-1 204.647 / 133.218
4. Ohio State 8-0 196.599 / 96.599
5. Virginia 7-1 191.800 / 116.800
6. Arizona State 7-0 189.143 / 89.143
7. Oregon 6-1 185.307 / 113.878
8. Virginia Tech 6-1 182.010 / 110.582
9. Kentucky 6-2 179.862 / 129.862
10. Florida 5-2 178.882 / 135.965
11. Missouri 6-1 174.969 / 103.541
12. South Carolina 6-2 173.500 / 123.500
13. Wake Forest 5-2 172.206 / 129.348
14. West Virginia 6-1 171.175 / 99.746
15. Auburn 5-3 167.872 / 142.872
16. Michigan 6-2 167.685 / 117.685
17. Kansas 7-0 163.805 / 63.805
18. Connecticut 6-1 161.037 / 89.608
19. Georgia 5-2 160.165 / 117.308
20. UCLA 5-2 159.713 / 116.856
21. Oklahoma 7-1 157.132 / 82.132
22. Rutgers 5-2 156.872 / 114.015
23. Alabama 6-2 155.808 / 105.808
24. Texas A&M 6-2 148.503 / 98.503
25. USC 6-1 148.238 / 76.809
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The_Jeh
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Re: College Football
« Reply #12 on: Oct 28th, 2007, 8:52pm » |
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Through Week 9
1. Boston College 8-0 (1)
2. LSU 7-1 (2)
3. Arizona State 8-0 (6)
4. Ohio State 9-0 (4)
5. Oregon 7-1 (7)
6. South Florida 6-2 (3)
7. Kansas 8-0 (17)
8. Virginia Tech 6-2 (8)
9. West Virginia 7-1 (14)
10. Georgia 6-2 (19)
11. Wake Forest 6-2 (13)
12. Connecticut 7-1 (18)
13. Michigan 7-2 (16)
14. Auburn 6-3 (15)
15. Clemson 6-2 (NR)
16. Virginia 7-2 (5)
17. Alabama 6-2 (23)
18. Missouri 7-1 (11)
19. Florida 5-3 (10)
20. Oklahoma 7-1 (21)
21. South Carolina 6-3 (12)
22. Tennessee (NR)
23. Kentucky 6-3 (9)
24. Purdue 7-2 (NR)
25. Georgia Tech 5-3 (NR)
Dropped: UCLA, Rutgers, Texas A&M, USC
Also, here are the top 25 I-A schools in terms of their schedule strength during the past nine weeks:
1. Notre Dame
2. North Carolina
3. Duke
4. North Carolina State
5. Washington
6. Florida
7. Auburn
8. Maryland
9. Mississippi
10. South Florida
11. Tennessee
12. LSU
13. Virginia Tech
14. Georgia
15. Stanford
16. Boston College
17. South Carolina
18. Mississippi State
19. Kentucky
20. Georgia Tech
21. Florida State
22. California
23. Colorado
24. Vanderbilt
25. Nebraska
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| « Last Edit: Oct 28th, 2007, 8:56pm by The_Jeh » |
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The_Jeh
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Re: College Football
« Reply #13 on: Nov 4th, 2007, 2:00pm » |
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Through Week 10
1. LSU 8-1 (2)
2. Oregon 8-1 (5)
3. Boston College 8-1 (1)
4. Ohio State 10-0 (4)
5. Arizona State 8-1 (3)
6. Virginia Tech 7-2 (8)
7. Kansas 9-0 (7)
8. Missouri 8-1 (18)
9. Georgia 7-2 (10)
10. Connecticut 8-1 (12)
11. Virginia 8-2 (16)
12. Florida 6-3 (19)
13. Michigan 8-2 (13)
14. Oklahoma 8-1 (20)
15. West Virginia 7-1 (9)
16. Clemson 7-2 (15)
17. South Florida 6-3 (6)
18. Alabama 6-3 (17)
19. Florida State 6-3 (NR)
20. Kentucky 6-3 (23)
21. Auburn 7-3 (14)
22. Wake Forest 6-3 (13)
23. Penn State 7-3 (NR)
24. Texas 8-2 (NR)
25. Tennessee 6-3 (22)
Dropped: South Carolina (21), Purdue (24), Georgia Tech (25)
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| « Last Edit: Nov 4th, 2007, 2:05pm by The_Jeh » |
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The_Jeh
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Re: College Football
« Reply #14 on: Nov 11th, 2007, 3:29pm » |
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Through Week 11
1. LSU 9-1
2. Oregon 8-1
3. Arizona State 9-1
4. Ohio State 10-1
5. Missouri 9-1
6. Georgia 8-2
7. Virginia Tech 8-2
8. Kansas 10-0
9. Boston College 8-2
10. Florida 7-3
11. West Virginia 8-1
12. Clemson 8-2
13. Virginia 9-2
14. Oklahoma 9-1
15. Kentucky 7-3
16. Connecticut 8-2
17. Illinois 8-3
18. South Florida 7-3
19. USC 8-2
20. Michigan 8-3
21. Tennessee 7-3
22. Texas 9-2
23. Wisconsin 8-3
24. Cincinnati 8-2
25. Penn State 8-3
And here's the list according to the second method, in which A/(A+B) is supposed to be the probability that team A defeats team B. One win and two losses to the anchor have been added:
1. Kansas 10-0 5.29894
2. LSU 9-1 5.06887
3. Ohio State 10-1 4.61614
4. Oregon 8-1 4.26414
5. Missouri 9-1 4.15172
6. Arizona State 9-1 3.86729
7. Oklahoma 9-1 3.76847
8. West Virginia 8-1 3.38880
9. Virginia Tech 8-2 3.18943
10. Georgia 8-2 3.16231
11. Hawai'i 9-0 3.08210
12. Boston College 8-2 3.00936
13. Clemson 8-2 2.90501
14. Virginia 9-2 2.80576
15. Florida 7-3 2.75881
16. Connecticut 8-2 2.69-72
17. Texas 9-2 2.68546
18. Illinois 8-3 2.67068
19. Michigan 8-3 2.53739
20. Cincinnati 8-2 2.51279
21. Boise State 9-1 2.46767
22. Wisconsin 8-2 2.39914
23. Kentucky 7-3 2.38191
24. South Florida 7-3 2.36844
25. USC 8-2 2.31010
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| « Last Edit: Nov 11th, 2007, 4:27pm by The_Jeh » |
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