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Topic: Go starting to show cracks as an AI challenge? (Read 12699 times) |
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Janzert
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Arimaa player #247
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Re: Go starting to show cracks as an AI challenge?
« Reply #15 on: Jan 17th, 2012, 2:32pm » |
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on May 11th, 2011, 11:33am, Janzert wrote:| I also think John Tromp was either very prescient or got very lucky and picked just about the perfect time limit for his Go bet. |
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In the initial go bet tournament Tromp took the 4 out of 7 tournament by winning 4-0. One year later there has been a repeat tournament with best 3 out of 5, this year Tromp lost 1-3. So I think my feeling last year has been validated and the bet was at the limit of Tromp being able to win it.
Janzert
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Fritzlein
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Arimaa player #706
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Re: Go starting to show cracks as an AI challenge?
« Reply #16 on: Jan 17th, 2012, 7:46pm » |
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Nice, thanks for the update. I trust results of even games under tournament conditions much more than the results of handicap pickup games. How far is it from 3 dan to World Champion?
Is this result another sign that I am too optimistic about humanity defending the Arimaa Challenge? I have $1000 on the line; as much as Tromp did. Unfortunately, I won't win $1000 amount if computers lose.  I wonder whether I will still be among the top three human players when the crunch time comes. Will I ever be in a position of defending my own money?
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robinz
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Re: Go starting to show cracks as an AI challenge?
« Reply #17 on: Jan 21st, 2012, 6:24am » |
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on Jan 17th, 2012, 7:46pm, Fritzlein wrote:How far is it from 3 dan to World Champion?
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I'm only a very mediocre go player - I know there are stronger players on here who may have a more precise view. But I do know that the answer to this question is "miles and miles" 
The strongest amateur rank is, I believe, 7 dan. Such a player would be expected to be able to give a 3 dan a 4 stone handicap and still have an even chance of winning. How big the gap is between the best amateurs and the world's top players I am less sure of, but I'm sure it must be at least a couple of stones. So, the gap between amateur 3d and the world's top players is at least 6 stones, if my guess holds up. (And I think that is being conservative.)
(For comparison, before I virtually stopped playing last summer, I was about 8k, which is a whole 10 stones worse than a 3d. Yet I was still capable of easily winning at a 5 or 6-stone handicap against players who, though obviously weak, were by no means beginners. The range of possible strengths in go is really quite amazing.)
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hyperpape
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Arimaa player #7113
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Re: Go starting to show cracks as an AI challenge?
« Reply #18 on: Feb 10th, 2012, 10:49pm » |
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My (anecdotal) reaction to those numbers presented earlier is that they are not understatements. A 2 dan having a 7% chance to beat a 4 dan seems quite reasonable to me. And I think that persists up to higher levels. You see some of the best American players (who are just about professional strength--in some case they are professionals, in fact) losing to players who are one or one and a half stones weaker.
One complicating factor is that the bot used in the 2010 challenge, Many Faces of Go (made by David Fotland) is a good bot, but still not quite on a par with Zen or Crazy Stone.
But the real question is how sustainable this progress will be. Right now, a naive extrapolation puts bots ahead of humans by a good margin in 2020 (it's more like a stone and a half progress per year these days). But you never know.
Also, regarding the number of levels: you can quantify it. The Europeans use an ELO system (http://europeangodatabase.eu/EGD/EGF_rating_system.php). There are players who have competed in tournaments who are rated 100. Against a typical player who had played four or five games, they might give a five-nine stone handicap. And there are active players in Europe players who are 2800. There is no good recent statistical work comparing European and Asian professionals, but they might be anywhere from 2900 to over 3000.
So every game is different, but whenever I read someone saying Arimaa has a lot of room for human improvement, my gut always says that's right.
(Note: I'm KGS 2kyu, and I read about computer go, but don't do any computer go programming, fwiw).
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| « Last Edit: Feb 10th, 2012, 10:57pm by hyperpape » |
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