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UruramTururam
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Re: Bitcoin digital currency
« Reply #105 on: Jun 10th, 2011, 3:22pm »
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The price needs not to be stable to exist. it may well oscillate as prices of other goods (and currencies relative to each other). In fact it would slowly grow in such a case as Bitcoins are a limited resource (deflating) currency.
 
But - wait! There is another stable situation: a total success of BTC would make all other currencies obsolete making their values expressed in BTC go to zero.  Cheesy
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Re: Bitcoin digital currency
« Reply #106 on: Jun 10th, 2011, 4:33pm »
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I think that american buyers will push the price to 25$  by selling when over, buying when under. I believe this will go on until the rest of the world's buying power is to high for americans to ignore(americans have a way of doing that). And yes, I do think this is the result of lower intelligence.-
After looking at the price in Euros' I suspect it will oscillate between 25USD and 20EUR. Perhaps I should restate the reason for my belief: round numbers. I remember people being quite excited when the year became 2000, simply because we use base 10.
UruramTururam: I don't think that is how old currencies will fall. it will eventually come down to a currency that cannot easily inflate vs currencies that the governments purposely inflate. Which has more value? The relatively deflating one.
« Last Edit: Jun 10th, 2011, 4:58pm by Nazgand » IP Logged
Fritzlein
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Re: Bitcoin digital currency
« Reply #107 on: Jun 10th, 2011, 11:47pm »
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Nazgand, from looking at the fine-grained chart of MtGox trades, the price of a BitCoin fluctuated between $20 and $25 within fifteen minutes.  It looks like 19:45-20:00 on June 10 UTC, if I am reading the chart correctly.  Given that kind of volatility, I am thoroughly skeptical the price can stay for a significant time in the tight band you suggest.  Round numbers do have a psychological impact, but other things (such as a perception of momentum) have a greater psychological impact.
« Last Edit: Jun 10th, 2011, 11:52pm by Fritzlein » IP Logged

Fritzlein
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Re: Bitcoin digital currency
« Reply #108 on: Jun 11th, 2011, 1:10pm »
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I finally thought of a scenario for a stable BitCoin price other than $0.  The number of BitCoins is small enough that an institution of moderate size could commit to buying them all, if necessary, to maintain a certain price.  Say Organization X really, really likes BitCoins above all other means of settling payments.  They agree to peg 1 BTC = $1, effectively buying the currency for $20,000,000 if everyone else loses faith.  Of course, they won't have to spend that all; once other people believe in the peg, other people will become willing to hold some of the outstanding BTC.  Organization X's backing then provides a stability and a confidence for vendors and customers to use BTC.  What does OX get out of it?  Well, maybe they trade in illegal drugs, and the value to them of having a convenient, untraceable way for customers to buy outweighs their one-time investment.  This seems like a conceivable alternative to BitCoins taking over the world or collapsing to nothing.
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Re: Bitcoin digital currency
« Reply #109 on: Jun 11th, 2011, 5:09pm »
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Bitcoins are pseudonymous, not anonymous. All transactions in the history of bitcoin are visible by everyone; thus, if you do a transaction to someone who knows your name(or your mailing address), they could look at the history of the bitcoin address you are using, and the history of the bitcoins owned by that address. In this way, it is possible to figure out some of your activity by comparing the list of bitcoin addresses you buy from to a list of publicly announced bitcoin addresses. Another thing: if you pay using multiple bitcoin addresses, everyone will realize that they belong to the same person.
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Fritzlein
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Re: Bitcoin digital currency
« Reply #110 on: Jun 12th, 2011, 12:27am »
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on Jun 10th, 2011, 2:53pm, Fritzlein wrote:
We should take a "double-or-half" poll.  From the current price of $22 is it more likely to hit $44 next or $11 next?  Since earlier in the thread I spoke of BitCoins reaching $100 or even $200, I will stick with the implicit prediction.  The pyramid will not yet collapse.  $44 will come before $11.

Well, that prediction took about thirty hours to prove false.  BitCoins traded hands for $11 this evening on MtGox.
« Last Edit: Jun 12th, 2011, 12:29am by Fritzlein » IP Logged

UruramTururam
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Re: Bitcoin digital currency
« Reply #111 on: Jun 12th, 2011, 2:26am »
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Yes, we were wrong.
 
Yet I'm glad to be wrong this time with 3.25 BTC produced on my comp (I plan to keep them for a few weeks and see what happens) and be right when to sell 7BTC I've bought. I had a good luck there. By the way I still believe in a raise later this week (around wed/thu).
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UruramTururam
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Re: Bitcoin digital currency
« Reply #112 on: Jun 20th, 2011, 1:04am »
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The story continues with the following events:
 
* Last week a wallet file with several thousand BTC has been stolen from a user computer.
* Yesterday a rich account at the MtGox trading site has been hacked and robbed.
* Later yesterday the whole MtGox user database (including passwords) leaked and has been published.
 
As a result the biggest active BTC market is bitomat with current price of 1BTC equal to 37zł which is about $13.
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Re: Bitcoin digital currency
« Reply #113 on: Jun 20th, 2011, 1:00pm »
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Ouch.  It rather clouds the issue of the viability of BitCoins if the fault of the incidents lies with MtGox instead of with the underlying P2P software.  Perhaps BitCoins per se will be judged on the merits of some other software.
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Re: Bitcoin digital currency
« Reply #114 on: Aug 17th, 2011, 12:31pm »
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The recent market turmoil affected Bitcoin prices in a way that I totally wouldn't have expected.  With U.S. debt downgraded and European countries on the brink of default, I would expect the rush away from fiat currencies (especially the dollar and euro) to accelerate, with one side effect (a small one among many large side effects) being a higher price for Bitcoins.  But no, amidst the market panic Bitcoins plunged to touch $6 and then as markets calmed they recovered to touch $12.  That is the opposite of what would happen if Bitcoins were truly viewed as a haven from unsound currencies.  Apparently something else is driving the market, something different from that which supposedly gives Bitcoins value.
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UruramTururam
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Re: Bitcoin digital currency
« Reply #115 on: Aug 17th, 2011, 4:17pm »
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It's probably viewed as highly risky and speculation-oriented good. Such goods behave that way.
 
Nevertheless I've bought (again) 7 BTC for $7.  Cheesy Let's see if I win or lose this time.
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Re: Bitcoin digital currency
« Reply #116 on: Aug 17th, 2011, 9:41pm »
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So you bought 7 BTC @ $7, just like last time?  If the price again goes to $32 and you sell out at the peak, I am definitely going to ask to rent your crystal ball...
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Re: Bitcoin digital currency
« Reply #117 on: Aug 18th, 2011, 11:23am »
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I would guess the recent bitcoin price fluctuations are more directly related to the series of bitcoin sites being hacked/running off with the coins than they are with external markets. At least that has been my thought as someone only moderately paying attention to the bitcoin community.
 
Janzert
« Last Edit: Aug 18th, 2011, 11:24am by Janzert » IP Logged
omar
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Re: Bitcoin digital currency
« Reply #118 on: Aug 23rd, 2011, 7:30am »
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I've been taking a bit of a vacation from Arimaa this summer and haven't been following the forum or events much. I'm dropping in to let everyone here know about a recent development in bitcoin. One of the bitcoin developers has started a fork of bitcoin called SolidCoin. There have been a few others that have tried forking bitcoin before, but they didn't really provide anything new and seemed to be attempts at profiting the developer by mining a lot of coins before releasing it. SolidCoin tries to fix some of the problems that have been noticed in bitcoin (for a full list see http://solidcoin.info) and the developer has mined only 30,000 coins before releasing it. And even those 30,000 coins are being used to promote the new currency by giving them away to people who tweet about it or become a merchant. I liked the approach this developer was taking and decided to support this variant of bitcoin by accepting it for Arimaa sets and books. Being one of the first merchants I didn't know what to value the currency at and decided to go with 1 SC = 1 USD. I got slammed with a bunch of orders and found out later that an exchanged had opened up that allowed converting bitcoins to SolidCoins and people were essentially able to buy 100 SC for 1 USD. I readjusted my price to 10 SC = 1 USD now and the orders have slowed down. So basically if you buy the Arimaa set or book using SC you can get it for 1/10th the USD price.
 
I wanted to let everyone here know about this new digital currency because there might be another opportunity here if you think this variant will eventually become as popular as bitcoin. Maybe UT can pull out his crystal ball and give us some insight Smiley Obviously you know I do think there is some upside to this since I'm offering the sets and books for a huge discount for payment in SC. I also converted some of the bitcoins I had to SC yesterday. The price was 0.0015 BTC = 1 SC, right now it is 0.0024 BTC = 1 SC. So at least for the time being I made a good move.
https://scexchange.bitparking.com
 
If you do decide to invest do so after your own evaluation of risk and not because I'm optimistic about it. There are still lots of things that can go wrong with these new currencies as they evolve and adjust. But if you make a killing from this tip, don't forget to contribute some to the prize fund Smiley
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UruramTururam
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Re: Bitcoin digital currency
« Reply #119 on: Aug 23rd, 2011, 8:42am »
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on Aug 23rd, 2011, 7:30am, omar wrote:

I wanted to let everyone here know about this new digital currency because there might be another opportunity here if you think this variant will eventually become as popular as bitcoin. Maybe UT can pull out his crystal ball and give us some insight Smiley

 
My crystal ball predicts that the future of all the BTC forks will be "glow and fade". Bitcoins are not perfect but they were there first so they would last longer. But for now it sounds well to convert BTC into SC and be prepared to convert them back soon(TM).
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