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Topic: Statistic wanted: Average pieces remaining (Read 3889 times) |
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Fritzlein
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Statistic wanted: Average pieces remaining
« on: Nov 29th, 2004, 5:17pm » |
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I would like a statistic to include in the Wikipedia article on Arimaa as a way of constrasting it to chess. What is the average number of pieces left on the board when the game ends? More specifically, what is the average number of pieces left for the winning side, and what is the average number of pieces left for the losing side?
If someone could extract this from the database, I'd be much obliged.
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omar
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Re: Statistic wanted: Average pieces remaining
« Reply #1 on: Dec 5th, 2004, 6:13pm » |
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Wow, that's not going to be easy to calculate without writting some kind of program.
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Fritzlein
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Re: Statistic wanted: Average pieces remaining
« Reply #2 on: Dec 5th, 2004, 7:17pm » |
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Yeah, it looked like a programming problem to me, which is why I posted asking for help. What I want to claim in the Wikipedia article is that Arimaa is usually decided with fewer captures than in chess. So even if I had the statistic I wanted, I would then have to go find a database of chess games to compare it to, or else I couldn't prove that chess trades down more. Oh, well.
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99of9
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Re: Statistic wanted: Average pieces remaining
« Reply #3 on: Dec 6th, 2004, 7:25pm » |
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I'll do it sometime if nobody beats me to it. It's not too hard to count x's in omar's files and divide by the number of games. 
However I don't think your idea is necessarily correct. Arimaa is often decided far earlier than checkmate is reached. But nowadays chess games are often decided after 17 moves with only one or two capture  . How do you propose to account for these chess mutual draws?
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PMertens
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Re: Statistic wanted: Average pieces remaining
« Reply #4 on: Dec 6th, 2004, 10:37pm » |
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maybe not the best code, but I love quick and dirty stuff in MS-Excel
after you loaded a textfile in Excel use the following VB-Code:
not perfekt, but its late
Option Explicit
Sub Counter()
Dim Row As Integer
Const Column_MoveList As Integer = 24
Const Column_LeftPieces_w As Integer = 26
Const Column_LeftPieces_b As Integer = 27
Const Column_LeftRabbits_w As Integer = 28
Const Column_LeftRabbits_b As Integer = 29
Dim LeftPieces_w As Integer
Dim LeftPieces_b As Integer
Dim LeftRabbits_w As Integer
Dim LeftRabbits_b As Integer
Const StartPieces As Integer = 16
Const StartRabbits As Integer = 8
Dim MoveList As Variant
Dim Moves As Integer
Dim Move As String
Dim Move_Splits As Variant
Dim Splits As Integer
Dim Splitter As String
Cells(1, Column_LeftPieces_w) = "left pieces w"
Cells(1, Column_LeftPieces_b) = "left pieces b"
Cells(1, Column_LeftRabbits_w) = "left rabbits w"
Cells(1, Column_LeftRabbits_b) = "left rabbits b"
Row = 2
While Cells(Row, 1).Text <> ""
LeftPieces_w = StartPieces
LeftPieces_b = StartPieces
LeftRabbits_w = StartRabbits
LeftRabbits_b = StartRabbits
MoveList = Split(Cells(Row, Column_MoveList), "\n")
' thats a little messy, but I could not think of an easier solution
On Error Resume Next
For Moves = 0 To 512
Move = MoveList(Moves)
Move_Splits = Split(Move, "x")
For Splits = 0 To 4
Splitter = Move_Splits(Splits)
If Splitter <> Move Then
If Val(Right(Splitter, 1)) > 0 Then
Select Case Left(Right(Splitter, 3), 1)
Case "R"
LeftPieces_w = LeftPieces_w - 1
LeftRabbits_w = LeftRabbits_w - 1
Case "r"
LeftPieces_b = LeftPieces_b - 1
LeftRabbits_b = LeftRabbits_b - 1
Case "A" To "Z"
LeftPieces_w = LeftPieces_w - 1
Case "a" To "z"
LeftPieces_b = LeftPieces_b - 1
End Select
End If
End If
Next
Next
On Error GoTo 0
Cells(Row, Column_LeftPieces_w) = LeftPieces_w
Cells(Row, Column_LeftPieces_b) = LeftPieces_b
Cells(Row, Column_LeftRabbits_w) = LeftRabbits_w
Cells(Row, Column_LeftRabbits_b) = LeftRabbits_b
Row = Row + 1
Wend
End Sub
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99of9
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Re: Statistic wanted: Average pieces remaining
« Reply #5 on: Dec 7th, 2004, 5:54pm » |
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It didn't work for me. But then again, this is the first VB program I've ever run.
In most cases it gave the answers as 16, 16, 8, 8 (ie all pieces remaining). But in some cases it gave -491 and stuff like that... so I think something must be wrong.
Did it work on 2004 Paul? If so, what were the averages of remaining pieces?
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PMertens
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Re: Statistic wanted: Average pieces remaining
« Reply #6 on: Dec 7th, 2004, 7:25pm » |
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it was Excel 2003 and the textfile for 2004.
if you import the textfile, make sure its imported correctly.
If the Columns differ you can change that easily.
I will give you the average later tonight (maybe)
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PMertens
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Re: Statistic wanted: Average pieces remaining
« Reply #7 on: Dec 7th, 2004, 7:48pm » |
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I got the following information for the year 2004:
(only g or m goals)
Total: (1549 Games)
Gold: 12.24 / 6.40 (pieces / rabbits)
Silver: 12.07 / 6.32
Gold wins: (791 Games)
Gold: 13.67 / 7.18
Silver: 10.55 / 5.45
Silver wins: (758 Games)
Gold: 10.74 / 5.59
Silver: 13.65 / 7.23
Anything else ?
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Fritzlein
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Re: Statistic wanted: Average pieces remaining
« Reply #8 on: Dec 8th, 2004, 7:34am » |
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Way cool, thanks! I had said in the Wikipedia article that there were usually 2/3 of the pieces left on the board at the end, but I wondered whether I was exaggerating. Now I see that I was underestimating, and it is actually 3/4! This has got to be more pieces than are left in chess. If we look at any susbstantial cross-section of the number of games played, "Grandmaster draws" aren't going to skew the statistics much. Probably a bigger factor will be that resignation is more common in chess, and one couldn't exclude resignations from the statistics as one can do here.
Does anyone have guess for the corresponding numbers in chess? I'll take a wild guess: 10 pieces left for the winner and 8 for the loser.
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PMertens
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Re: Statistic wanted: Average pieces remaining
« Reply #9 on: Dec 8th, 2004, 3:48pm » |
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And because Toby asked for it:
all games with playerrating over 1700
Total: (165 Games)
Gold: 11.42 / 5.99 (pieces / rabbits)
Silver: 11.02 / 5.78
Gold wins: (95 Games)
Gold: 12.81 / 6.8
Silver: 9.58 / 4.94
Silver wins: (70 Games)
Gold: 9.54 / 4.89
Silver: 12.97 / 6.93
Looks like top players have a higher chance of winning with gold and need to kill more pieces to win
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| « Last Edit: Dec 8th, 2004, 3:49pm by PMertens » |
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Fritzlein
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Re: Statistic wanted: Average pieces remaining
« Reply #10 on: Dec 8th, 2004, 7:56pm » |
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It is interesting to see what happens to the statistic when restricted to games between higher-rated players. It looks like there are about 25% more captures. Compare this to the statistics on game length, where the stronger players made about 17% more moves.
I know that the games I win against speedy tend to have relatively many moves and relatively many captures, because if I get the upper hand and start to threaten goal, speedy usually finds a way to fend it off that sacrifices material. A human might consider such moves hopeless and pointless, because it doesn't make winning any harder, just longer. I always take the offered material, because it is easier than trying to think how to score the goal, and in most such situations I'm sure I'll get there eventually.
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PMertens
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Re: Statistic wanted: Average pieces remaining
« Reply #11 on: Dec 9th, 2004, 8:18am » |
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all games with playerrating over 1700 and speedy involved
Total: (79 Games)
Gold: 10.89 / 5.53 (pieces / rabbits)
Silver: 10.59 / 5.52
Gold wins: (45 Games)
Gold: 12.73 / 8.98
Silver: 6.60 / 4.60
Silver wins: (34 Games)
Gold: 8.44 / 4.12
Silver: 12.74 / 6.74
so actually not the winner has less pieces in speedygames, but the only the loser.
One reason might be blunders (speedy does not do that) and humans that prefer removing one piece after the other and the defensive play that makes it hard to push through without removing pieces first
anything else ?
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PMertens
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Re: Statistic wanted: Average pieces remaining
« Reply #12 on: Dec 9th, 2004, 8:28am » |
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hmmm - in all those 2004 games, why dont I see any Fritzlein-Games ?
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Fritzlein
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Re: Statistic wanted: Average pieces remaining
« Reply #13 on: Dec 9th, 2004, 10:45am » |
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on Dec 9th, 2004, 8:28am, PMertens wrote:| hmmm - in all those 2004 games, why dont I see any Fritzlein-Games ? |
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In my database, there are 27 Fritzlein-Speedy games through December 5, and they all must have been in the last year.
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PMertens
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Arimaa player #692
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Re: Statistic wanted: Average pieces remaining
« Reply #14 on: Dec 9th, 2004, 11:44am » |
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not in the file I downloaded
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