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Topic: Move 43 (Read 7280 times) |
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Janzert
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Arimaa player #247
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Re: Move 43
« Reply #15 on: Oct 15th, 2008, 11:21am » |
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Yes, basically OpFor is happy with the H for rr trade.
depth 13
time 2062
losing_moves 2236
score 551
pv Hg6w Hf6x eg5n dg2e dh2n w re4s Ef4w re3e rf3x Ee4s b Cg3n dh3w Cg4n dg3n w Rf1e
It's not just FAME that likes the H for rr trade though, FAME, DAPE and DAPE(eo) all like it. FAME gives gold +0.72 before and -3.67 after, DAPE goes from +1.02 to -5.07 and DAPE(eo) from -1.18 to -2.23. So FAME is in the middle in how much it likes it.
Janzert
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aaaa
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Re: Move 43
« Reply #16 on: Oct 15th, 2008, 11:39am » |
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on Oct 15th, 2008, 9:48am, Fritzlein wrote:| If OpFor likes the H for RR trade, this may be a case of FAME under-valuing rabbits, but I don't know that GnoBot would think the same way. |
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I don't think it's reasonable to expect a purely material evaluator not to prefer trading two rabbits for the horse here. It's up to the non-material part of the evaluation to lower the net worth of capturing the horse on account of it having been taken hostage.
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Fritzlein
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Re: Move 43
« Reply #17 on: Oct 15th, 2008, 12:08pm » |
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Right, a horse is worth more than two rabbits in general, so the material eval can't be faulted for taking the trade. The key is knowing that delaying the trade will make it instead a horse for only one rabbit, or a horse for free, or an outright goal. These things are too deep to search exhaustively in this position, and rely instead on positional judgment which is dodgy even in humans. For example, two moves ago I was willing to trade our cat to take the horse, until camelback's rabbit advance persuaded me otherwise.
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| « Last Edit: Oct 15th, 2008, 12:18pm by Fritzlein » |
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Fritzlein
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Re: Move 43
« Reply #18 on: Oct 15th, 2008, 12:15pm » |
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on Oct 15th, 2008, 11:21am, Janzert wrote:| It's not just FAME that likes the H for rr trade though, FAME, DAPE and DAPE(eo) all like it. FAME gives gold +0.72 before and -3.67 after, DAPE goes from +1.02 to -5.07 and DAPE(eo) from -1.18 to -2.23. So FAME is in the middle in how much it likes it. |
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Very interesting. Recalling how DAPE values the deputy (second-strongest piece) even more than FAME (e.g. M > HD as first trade), I'm no longer surprised that OpFor and GnoBot agree. Bomb wants to trade H for D instead of for RR, because Bomb's dog value is constant, i.e. it doesn't view the dog as the deputy when the horse is gone, whereas Bomb does think the rabbit value goes up for later rabbits.
Despite their differences, then, all three bots want a material win, because they don't see forced goal, and their respective static eval functions don't give the goal attack as much weight as the material gain. So the question for us voters is whether the goal attack really is worth more than the bots think, or whether the unanimous opinion of silicon is right in this case.
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| « Last Edit: Oct 15th, 2008, 12:17pm by Fritzlein » |
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Soter
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Re: Move 43
« Reply #19 on: Oct 15th, 2008, 1:30pm » |
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I should have made myself clearer, gentlemen: I just wanted to say that maybe we shouldn't move too quickly this time - and instead focus on squeezing the deepest possible analysis from our bots. Speaking fits my communication style a tad better than writing  . Anyway, some other possible reactions to 44g Rf1n Ef4s re3n Ef3w: 44s dg3s Rf2w dg2w rf5s and 44s dg3s dg2e Rf2e rf5s (the last one slightly wacky).
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| « Last Edit: Oct 15th, 2008, 1:30pm by Soter » |
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camelback
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Re: Move 43
« Reply #20 on: Oct 15th, 2008, 2:14pm » |
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I support Fritz' move 43s re5s cd6s cd5e re4s
This is better than other choices mentioned for this move.
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warren
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Re: Move 43
« Reply #21 on: Oct 15th, 2008, 8:44pm » |
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on Oct 15th, 2008, 7:05am, Fritzlein wrote:
Sorry, I didn't mean to say you need to turn off Bomb entirely, just that it isn't completely trustworthy in balancing immediate material gain against strategic goal attack. I've been glad for all your analysis with Bomb because for the most part it has allowed me to turn off Bomb and just think, knowing that you are covering the tactical blunder angle.
I feel it is more interesting and fun to try to analyze unassisted, but I have to admit that cyborg (human+bot) analysis is probably stronger. |
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Don't worry, I didn't interpret your comments as a request that I extinguish bomb. I simply decided I'd like to try making my own mistakes rather than bomb's.
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warren
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Re: Move 43
« Reply #22 on: Oct 15th, 2008, 9:02pm » |
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on Oct 15th, 2008, 12:15pm, Fritzlein wrote:
Despite their differences, then, all three bots want a material win, because they don't see forced goal, and their respective static eval functions don't give the goal attack as much weight as the material gain. So the question for us voters is whether the goal attack really is worth more than the bots think, or whether the unanimous opinion of silicon is right in this case. |
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If this were our last chance to take the horse I would say we should play it safe and take it. However unless we're missing a hail-mary 44g or 45g, we can always capture his horse a few turns from now at the cost of at most a rabbit if we later decide that the immediate goal threat won't work. So why not give the goal threat a try?
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99of9
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Re: Move 43
« Reply #23 on: Oct 16th, 2008, 1:56am » |
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on Oct 15th, 2008, 1:34am, 99of9 wrote:at 12 ply Gnobot recommends
43s Hg5n eg4n re5s dg3s
which results in a few trades, but seems worth considering.
I'll try to run a deeper search overnight. |
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Gnobot sticks with this move from 8 steps until 16(+) steps.
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| « Last Edit: Oct 16th, 2008, 4:47am by 99of9 » |
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99of9
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Re: Move 43
« Reply #24 on: Oct 16th, 2008, 2:16am » |
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Out of interest, in Fritz's line, what do we play if his response is:
43s cd6e re5s ce6s re4s
44g Ef4w re3w Ee4s Rf1n
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RonWeasley
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Re: Move 43
« Reply #25 on: Oct 16th, 2008, 4:13am » |
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on Oct 16th, 2008, 2:16am, 99of9 wrote:Out of interest, in Fritz's line, what do we play if his response is:
43s cd6e re5s ce6s re4s
44g Ef4w re3w Ee4s Rf1n |
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Here's one way to respond. It's looking more and more like we will take the horse to free up our e. The immediate goal threats allow us to trade H for r.
43s cd6s re5s cd5e re4s
44g Ef4w re3w Ee4s Rf1n
44s dg3s dg2e Rf2e rf5s
45g Rc2e Rd2e Re2e Ra5n (gold can't take the d3 rabbit)
45s Hg5w eg4n Hf5n Hf6x eg5w
46g Ee3e Ef3w rf4s rf3x Rg2n
46s ce5w cd5w ef5w ee5w
47g Rg3n Rg4n Rg5n Rg6n
47s cc7e cd7e rb5s rb4s
48g Db6s Db5s Ee3s rd3e
48s rb8s Rd4e ed5s ed4w
49g Ee2w Rf2w Ed2w Ec2w
49s re3w rd3s rd2s
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warren
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Re: Move 43
« Reply #26 on: Oct 16th, 2008, 3:56pm » |
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Voice vote for 43s cd6s re5s cd5e re4s?
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Soter
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Re: Move 43
« Reply #28 on: Oct 17th, 2008, 12:46am » |
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I examined it once again and feel rather convinced; count me in.
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| « Last Edit: Oct 17th, 2008, 12:46am by Soter » |
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99of9
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Re: Move 43
« Reply #29 on: Oct 17th, 2008, 1:17am » |
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Ok, let's do it, I can't see any big danger.
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