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Topic: 2007 Postal Tournament (Read 4025 times) |
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Fritzlein
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Arimaa player #706
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Re: 2007 Postal Tournament
« Reply #30 on: Apr 8th, 2007, 1:32pm » |
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Here's a rough look at the continuing evolution of Arimaa opening preferences, as demonstrated in the annual postal tournaments:
| Elephant File | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | | d | 98.1% | 79.5% | 85.3% | | c | | 13.7% | 9.4% | | b | 1.9% | 6.3% | 5.3% | | a | | 0.5% | | | Rabbits Forward | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | | none | 14.4% | 22.6% | 10.0% | | a | 2.5% | 15.3% | 4.1% | | c | 3.1% | | | | ah | 55.6% | 56.3% | 76.5% | | cf | 23.1% | | | | ag | | 0.5% | 1.2% | | adh | | 2.6% | 4.1% | | abgh | 0.6% | | | | acfh | 0.6% | | | | adeh | | 2.6% | 4.1% | | Setup Balance | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | | Symmetrical | 56.9% | 50.5% | 54.1% | | Balanced | 22.5% | 30.0% | 34.1% | | Unbalanced | 20.6% | 19.5% | 11.8% | | Gold Move 2w | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | | E up 4 | 68.8% | 26.3% | 25.9% | | E up 3 over 1 | 11.3% | 11.6% | 1.2% | | E up 3; X up 1 | 6.3% | 41.1% | 40.0% | | E up 2; X,Y up 1 | 3.8% | 10.5% | 23.5% | | E, X, Y, Z up 1 | 3.8% | 3.2% | | | Other | 6.3% | 7.4% | 9.4% |
Unbalanced setups and decentralized elephants lost a little ground, and having two forward flank rabbits became the dominant choice.
In 2005 80% of the opening moves used all four steps on the elephant. This year only 27% of the opening moves use four elephant steps, 40% use three, and 33% move the elephant two steps or less. This seems to correspond to a philosophical shift away from lone-elephant openings, and away from unbalanced flank attacks, toward keeping the elephant centralized while poking with a horse on each wing. For Silver openings, "Other" was tied for first this year by "E up 2; X,Y up 1", both at 33%.
Of course, it is dangerous to draw sweeping conclusions from the data. 8.2% of the setups had three or four rabbits forward, but all of those are blue22's games, and the jump happened because he is playing a greater percentage of games this year than last. Likewise the decline in unbalanced setup may be partially attributable to robinson playing fewer games.
I'm curious to see whether my lone-elephant style of opening becomes totally obsolete in comparison to centralized elephant plus advanced flank horses. I can't yet find a way to punish chessandgo's advancing horse in our game, and when I took Adanac's horse hostage with my elephant, he forced a re-alignment which leaves me equal at best, and probably slightly worse. I need some kind of horse-repellent if my style is going to stand the test of time.
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Fritzlein
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Arimaa player #706
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Re: 2007 Postal Tournament
« Reply #31 on: Apr 8th, 2007, 7:58pm » |
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Since I looked at all the openings in this tournament anyway, I thought I might as well report on whether Arimaa openings are starting to become stereotyped like chess openings.
In last year's postal tournament, there were 95 games. After two moves on each side (i.e. after 2b (i.e. after the setup and one move on each side)) there were 92 unique positions. There were three pairs of repeats, all of which diverged on move 3w.
In this year's postal tournament, there are 85 games. After two moves on each side, there were 81 unique positions. There are four pairs of repeats, all of which diverged on 3w.
This points to a small increase in standardization, but it is still nothing like chess. For comparison, last year I looked at a grandmaster chess tournament, in which there were 91 games. After two moves on each side (i.e. not counting the setup, since there is no choice) there were 20 unique positions. Many of the 71 repeats did not diverge for several more moves. We have a long way to go before reaching that kind of uniformity in Arimaa openings.
For the curious, the repeats this year are:
Fritzlein vs. chessandgo
bot_Zombie vs. chessandgo
petitprince vs. JacquesB
Fritzlein vs. Adanac
Fritzlein vs. RonWeasley
99of9 vs. Fritzlein
RonWeasley vs. 99of9
RonWeasley vs. arimaa_master
These games show that, if there is anything like a standard, it is the 99of9 setup, followed by elephant forward three and horse on the same wing forward one.
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JacquesB
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Arimaa player #2380
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Re: 2007 Postal Tournament
« Reply #32 on: Apr 9th, 2007, 12:46pm » |
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Its a honor to open like Fritzlein vs. Adanac .
I wish I could play like them more than just one move.
I didn't copy. 
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Fritzlein
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Arimaa player #706
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Re: 2007 Postal Tournament
« Reply #33 on: Apr 9th, 2007, 2:21pm » |
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Yes, I also insist I did not copy Zombie in my opening versus chessandgo.
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99of9
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Re: 2007 Postal Tournament
« Reply #34 on: Apr 10th, 2007, 7:49am » |
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Thanks for keeping the opening analysis up to date Fritz. I think this is one of the best ways to watch the progress and development of the dominant strategies.
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Fritzlein
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Arimaa player #706
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Re: 2007 Postal Tournament
« Reply #35 on: Apr 12th, 2007, 8:09am » |
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RonWeasley finished off three games in the last two days, surging into the lead at +4. Under the "win-loss" scoring, it seems probable that only a game-hungry player can top the standings. Will that encourage folks to sign up for more games next year?
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camelback
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Arimaa perl monger
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Re: 2007 Postal Tournament
« Reply #36 on: Apr 13th, 2007, 5:05pm » |
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Is it possible to send the opponent's move notation along with email notification?
Then I don't have to click the game link and I can plan the game totally off-line.
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Fritzlein
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Arimaa player #706
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Re: 2007 Postal Tournament
« Reply #37 on: Apr 13th, 2007, 5:20pm » |
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on Apr 13th, 2007, 5:05pm, camelback wrote:| Is it possible to send the opponent's move notation along with email notification? |
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I would appreciate this feature as well. Sometimes I remember the position perfectly well, and I don't want to bother opening up a client just to see what happened. Not a big deal, but a nice convenience.
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RonWeasley
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Harry's friend (Arimaa player #441)
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Re: 2007 Postal Tournament
« Reply #38 on: Apr 25th, 2007, 3:40pm » |
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When I started the tournament, I guessed a probability of winning against each opponent. Adding them up gave me my expected number of wins. With Omar's pairing formula, all but the top and bottom few players should expect to win about half their games. So it was with my own estimate.
Well, I've now won 6 out of 12, so this tourament is now a success for me. Any additional wins are gravy. And I really didn't want to lose to Zombie!
I hope the other players are enjoying the tournament.
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Fritzlein
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Arimaa player #706
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Re: 2007 Postal Tournament
« Reply #39 on: Apr 25th, 2007, 3:58pm » |
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on Apr 25th, 2007, 3:40pm, RonWeasley wrote:| With Omar's pairing formula, all but the top and bottom few players should expect to win about half their games. |
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Unless your rating is inaccurate. Maybe you were grossly underrated at 2089. Your current rating of 2232 might be more realistic...
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Fritzlein
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Arimaa player #706
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Re: 2007 Postal Tournament
« Reply #40 on: Jun 27th, 2007, 8:03am » |
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We are four months in and there are still 35 games that haven't finished. Is it my imagination, or are more games stretching out longer than in past years? I guess more and more people are dipping way into their reserve as a matter of course, which can add a month or two to the game duration, whereas formerly the majority of folks would finish their games with full reserve.
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| « Last Edit: Jun 27th, 2007, 8:04am by Fritzlein » |
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camelback
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Arimaa perl monger
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Re: 2007 Postal Tournament
« Reply #41 on: Aug 22nd, 2007, 6:37pm » |
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My first ever postal tournament was a wild success.
Thought I would win only 2 games but I won all 4  , well I had a few lucky breaks.
It's either Fritzlein or chessandgo, who is going to join me in "all_win club of 2007 postal". Curious to see who it is 
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Fritzlein
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Arimaa player #706
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Re: 2007 Postal Tournament
« Reply #42 on: Aug 22nd, 2007, 8:17pm » |
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Thol, if chessandgo loses to 99of9 and I lose to chessandgo, you will be the only undefeated player of the tournament. Congratulations on a fantastic result!
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chessandgo
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Arimaa player #1889
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Re: 2007 Postal Tournament
« Reply #43 on: Aug 23rd, 2007, 4:53am » |
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yeah, congrats camelback. Karl, I offer draw (just to make sure that Thol will be the only undefeated player, of course !) 
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RonWeasley
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Harry's friend (Arimaa player #441)
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Re: 2007 Postal Tournament
« Reply #44 on: Aug 23rd, 2007, 7:41am » |
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Daily Prophet headline: Camelback Sweeps!
Keep that broom for quidditch and you could be a fair chaser.
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