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Topic: 2008 World Championship Discussion (Read 5709 times) |
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The_Jeh
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Re: 2008 World Championship Discussion
« Reply #45 on: Feb 10th, 2008, 2:50pm » |
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Here are the WC standings after round five. The first column lists the standings in official order. The second column lists the standings according to Bradley-Terry order, forfeits counted. The third column lists the standings according to Bradley-Terry, forfeits not counted. Neither of the Bradley-Terry models are ordered strictly as tiebreakers of the official order, but the one that counts forfeits happens not to put any players with fewer wins higher than players with more wins, anyway. The one that does not count forfeits is mixed-up in this manner.
Wins Rank Official ................... Bradley-Terry BT w/o Forfeits
(5) 1. Fritzlein .........................Fritzlein Fritzlein
(4) 2. chessandgo .......................chessandgo chessandgo
3. arimaa_master ................ arimaa_master arimaa_master
4. 99of9 ............................... Adanac Adanac
5. Adanac ............................... 99of9 99of9
(3) 6. jdb .................................... jdb jdb
7. naveed ................................. woh froody
8. woh ................................. froody naveed
9. fritzlforpresident ...... fritzlforpresident woh
10. froody ........................... camelback PMertens
11. camelback ........................... naveed omar
12. omar .................................. omar fritzlforpresident
(2) 13. mistre .......................... (PMertens) camelback
14. ArifSyed ............................ mistre mistre
15. Aamir ............................. ArifSyed ArifSyed
16. Emaad ................................ Emaad Emaad
17. ChrisB ............................... Aamir subs2000
18. (PMertens) .......................... ChrisB ChrisB
19. silump5 .............................. Amina Amina
20. Amina .............................. silump5 silump5
21. subs2000 .......................... subs2000 Aamir
(1) 22. megamau .............................. Fisma megamau
23. Fisma .............................. megamau Fisma
24. soldier ............................ soldier Sana
25. Sana .................................. Sana soldier
(0) 26. zackry .............................. zackry [zackry]{played no games}
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| « Last Edit: Feb 10th, 2008, 2:53pm by The_Jeh » |
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Fritzlein
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Re: 2008 World Championship Discussion
« Reply #46 on: Feb 10th, 2008, 2:52pm » |
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on Feb 10th, 2008, 2:25pm, RonWeasley wrote:| JIf zackry, has told anybody that he withdrew, please bring it to my attention. |
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Omar mentioned that he called his brother, zackry's father, before round five to ask whether zackry was going to play the final two rounds, and he confirmed that he wouldn't, making it a withdrawal rather than a bye. If we thought zackry might show up, I agree with the bye rule, but since we knew he wouldn't (even though zackry had to be asked rather than informing us on his own), I think it amounts to a withdrawal.
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| « Last Edit: Feb 10th, 2008, 2:56pm by Fritzlein » |
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Fritzlein
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Re: 2008 World Championship Discussion
« Reply #47 on: Feb 10th, 2008, 2:59pm » |
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on Feb 10th, 2008, 2:50pm, The_Jeh wrote:| The second column lists the standings according to Bradley-Terry order, forfeits counted. |
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Again, hardly any difference with the official standings. The clincher will come after the sixth round, when we look at places seven through ten, the folks who barely made it in and the folks who barely didn't make it in.
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omar
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Re: 2008 World Championship Discussion
« Reply #48 on: Feb 10th, 2008, 4:10pm » |
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on Feb 10th, 2008, 2:25pm, RonWeasley wrote:
If zackry, has told anybody that he withdrew, please bring it to my attention. |
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Ned I had tried to send this email to you. Seems you didn't get it.
Quote:
Ned, I talked with my brother (father of zackery)
and confirmed that zackery also will not be
playing the remainder of the tournament. So
I am assuming that you would declare him to also
be removed from the tournament. zackery was going
to get a bye this round anyways. So I will remove
both PMertens and zackery from the tournament
before doing the pairing and sending out an updated
email to the players.
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omar
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Re: 2008 World Championship Discussion
« Reply #49 on: Feb 10th, 2008, 4:16pm » |
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After I did the pairing for round 6, Karl noticed that it was not correct. We noticed that the pairing alg was ordering the players by least player loses and opponent losses as opposed to highest wins and opponent wins. It did not matter before, but now that two players had withdrawn it was producing the wrong results. Since the tournament rules said the later, I decided to change the alg to match that. Karl checked the new pairing and it matched what he was expecting.
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RonWeasley
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Re: 2008 World Championship Discussion
« Reply #50 on: Feb 10th, 2008, 7:03pm » |
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Thanx for the information on zackry. I found the e-mail, sent in timely fashion, and don't know why I didn't see it earlier. Some kind of invisibility jinx. Anyway, things were handled just right and I'm in a happy place.
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Fritzlein
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Re: 2008 World Championship Discussion
« Reply #51 on: Feb 10th, 2008, 7:06pm » |
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Round 5 commentary is up. Thank you so much, Adanac, for automating the cross-table and taking on half the games for commenting. One more round to go, and then the number of games finally drops to a manageable number. 
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woh
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Re: 2008 World Championship Discussion
« Reply #52 on: Feb 11th, 2008, 6:20am » |
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Thanks, Fritzlein and Adanac, for the great commentary on the games. I always enjoy reading them. And they give me a better understanding of what is going on in the games, even in me own games. (Now I know I could have captured one of arimaa_master's dogs for free, I suppose one isn't expecting such a chance and doesn't look for it.)
Thanks again for all the time and effort you both have put into it.
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Janzert
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Re: 2008 World Championship Discussion
« Reply #53 on: Feb 11th, 2008, 4:50pm » |
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Great commentary once again. At least after next week you start to get a break in the number of games that need to be reported. 
It appears that the text in the froody vs ChrisB analysis got a bit mangled
Quote:| With the f6 trap uncontested, silver was able to trap a gold rabbit for the first gold had quietly advanced his dog to a7 to h capture of the game. While silver had grabbed an early material advantage,elp free the horse from c6. |
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Janzert
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| « Last Edit: Feb 11th, 2008, 4:51pm by Janzert » |
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Adanac
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Re: 2008 World Championship Discussion
« Reply #54 on: Feb 14th, 2008, 11:25am » |
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I had a quiet morning at work and I'm excited about the final round so…..I ran all 4096 possible permutations of the final round (assuming there’s no double-forfeits or anything like that) and here's a quick summary:
- Four players are guaranteed to make the top 8 and eight other players still have a shot.
- Fritzlein can do no worse than 2nd, and may finish first even with a loss.
- Chessandgo is the only player that can possibly pass Fritzlein and is guaranteed 3rd or better with a win.
- Arimaa_Master and 99of9 cannot pass Fritzlein but are each guaranteed either 2nd or 3rd place with a victory. Arimaa_master has 128 scenarios where he can still finish 3rd with a final round loss and 99of9 has 416 scenarios where he can finish 3rd with a loss.
- Adanac will miss the Double-Elimination tournament in 40 out of 4096 scenarios, but is guaranteed 8th or better with a victory or a win by Omar, or a win by camelback or a win by woh, plus several other scenarios. With a victory, Adanac finishes 3rd with a 99of9 of loss or 4th with a 99of9 win.
- JDB is the only player with 3 wins that is guaranteed to qualify for the Double Elimination tournament with a victory. Other players with 3 victories can guarantee a top 8 finish with a victory themselves combined with a loss by JDB, plus many other scenarios. Omar and Camelback have slightly lower odds than most of the pack, but each still have at least 128 scenarios to qualify even with a win by JDB.
To read the table: W: x-y means the player will finish between xth and yth place with a win. Similar for a loss in the next column.
chessandgo W:1-3 L:3-5
Fritzlein W:1-1 L:1-2
99of9 W:2-3 L:3-6
Adanac W:3-4 L:5-9
arimaa master W:2-3 L:3-7
jdb W:4-8 L:9-13
naveed W:4-9 L:9-13
mistre W:9-15 L:17-19
Arif_Syed W:10-15 L:17-20
omar W:6-9 L:11-15
camelback W:6-9 L:9-14
woh W:5-9 L:9-13
megamau W:17-22 L:24-24
fritzlforpresident W:4-9 L:9-15
froody W:5-9 L:9-15
ChrisB W:12-16 L:17-21
Aamir W:12-16 L:17-21
Fisma W:18-23 L:24-25
silump5 W:12-16 L:17-21
Amina W:15-16 L:19-23
soldier W:21-23 L:24-25
subs2000 W:14-16 L:18-23
Sana W:21-23 L:24-25
Emaad W:11-16 L:17-21
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| « Last Edit: Feb 14th, 2008, 1:40pm by Adanac » |
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Adanac
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Re: 2008 World Championship Discussion
« Reply #55 on: Feb 16th, 2008, 3:16pm » |
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Aamir's victory guaranteed 7th place for Woh. The final standings are now becoming more apparent, with only 2 games left to influence the final standings.
Fritzlein: 1st Place
Chessandgo-Arimaa_Master winner: 2nd place; loser: 4th place
Adanc: 3rd Place
99of9: 5th Place
Naveed: 6th Place
Woh: 7th Place
Omar-Fritzlforpresident winner: 8th place
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The_Jeh
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Re: 2008 World Championship Discussion
« Reply #56 on: Feb 17th, 2008, 3:38pm » |
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Here are the final official standings, BT standings, and BT using played games only (including games won on time for any reason). All three systems agree on the same eight players.
(Wins) Rank Official...................Bradley-Terry BT-Played Games
(6) 1. Fritzlein......................Fritzlein Fritzlein
(5) 2. chessandgo....................chessandgo chessandgo
. 3. Adanac............................Adanac Adanac
(4) 4. arimaa_master..............arimaa_master 99of9
. 5. 99of9..............................99of9 arimaa_master
. 6. naveed...............................woh woh
. 7. woh...............................naveed naveed
. 8. omar................................omar omar
(3) 9. jdb..................................jdb (PMertens)
. 10. Arif_Syed.........................froody jdb
. 11. fritzlforpresident..............ArifSyed froody
. 12. froody.........................camelback ArifSyed
. 13. mistre........................(PMertens) mistre
. 14. camelback.........................mistre camelback
. 15. Aamir.................fritzlforpresident fritzlforpresident
. 16. subs2000...........................Aamir subs2000
(2) 17. ChrisB..........................subs2000 Aamir
. 18. Emaad.............................ChrisB Emaad
. 19. silump5............................Emaad ChrisB
. 20. Amina............................silump5 megamau
. 21. (PMertens).........................Amina silump5
. 22. Soldier..........................megamau Amina
(1) 23. megamau..........................soldier Fisma
. 24. Fisma..............................Fisma Sana
. 25. Sana................................Sana soldier
(0) 26. (zackry)........................(zackry) (zackry)*
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| « Last Edit: Feb 17th, 2008, 3:39pm by The_Jeh » |
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Fritzlein
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Re: 2008 World Championship Discussion
« Reply #57 on: Feb 17th, 2008, 4:25pm » |
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Interesting that B-T agrees about the top eight.
I notice that the among the top eight everyone lost only to people who finished higher except omar losing to PMertens (which doesn't really count) and naveed losing to froody. Otherwise there are no rank-violations, as they say in the ratings biz.
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PMertens
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Re: 2008 World Championship Discussion
« Reply #58 on: Feb 18th, 2008, 1:57pm » |
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"The matchup of young cousins subs2000 vs. Emaad will insure that some entrant below the rating of 1300 (and below the age of eight) will finish with an even record of 3-3." ... well, that one went a bit wrong
I really love to read your event coverage Karl, since unfortunately I do not have the time for watching the games.
Good luck and lots of fun for the participants in the "real" tournament now
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mistre
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Re: 2008 World Championship Discussion
« Reply #59 on: Feb 18th, 2008, 2:45pm » |
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Congrats to all in the Top 8 and good luck in the finals.
I really enjoyed the experience, but of my 6 games - I played 3 people that are clearly better than me (all made Top 8 ) and 3 people that I was clearly better than. I wish I could have played some of the others that finished with 3 wins.
What about a consolation bracket for all the participants with 3 wins (9-16)? Could something like that be arranged? That would be fun.
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| « Last Edit: Feb 18th, 2008, 2:45pm by mistre » |
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