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Fritzlein
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2015 Arimaa Challenge
« on: Mar 1st, 2015, 8:45am »
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It must be time to start the 2015 Arimaa Challenge thread, because Omar has announced the defenders in game room.  They are browni3141, chessandgo, and harvestsnow, with clyring as alternate.
 
Would anyone care to make predictions for the score this year, as well as for humanity's odds of defending for another five years until the Challenge prize expires?
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Fritzlein
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Re: 2015 Arimaa Challenge
« Reply #1 on: Mar 1st, 2015, 8:50am »
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To get things started, supersamu and I have placed a wager on the screening.  If he wins all four of his screening games this year, he wins 200 Arimaa points from me.  If he doesn't, I win 100 Arimaa points from him.  Right supersamu?
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supersamu
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Re: 2015 Arimaa Challenge
« Reply #2 on: Mar 1st, 2015, 9:04am »
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I first proposed the bet roughly 2 weeks ago, and Fritzlein took the chance for the symbolic amount. The bet translates to me having a 75% winning chance in each game. I am excited what the screening brings, especially now that sharp is appearing so strong (no loss in the CBE).
 
I am convinced that if you win 2 games in the screening, you have what it takes to get into the finals of the WC. (Meaning losing less than 3 games in the first 6 rounds with the current format).
 
The screening is also very important for omar and the challenge defenders. Last year we had several newcomers taking a stab and they performed quite well, showing that with basic strategic understanding, you can do surprisingly well.
 
I hope we have a lot of screening games to show that humanity still reigns over the bots!
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rbarreira
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Re: 2015 Arimaa Challenge
« Reply #3 on: Mar 1st, 2015, 10:55am »
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Another topic that got a short discussion in today's chat was - what time control have the bots already surpassed humans at?
 
I think almost everyone would agree that humans would have bad winning chances if the challenge was played at 8 seconds per move (lightning).
 
How about blitz? It's uncertain, but I feel bots may be the best at blitz at the moment, after looking at bot_sharp2014blitz's record.
 
It would be interesting to find out the time gap between bots getting better at lightning and bots getting better at blitz (if that already happened).
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aaaa
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Re: 2015 Arimaa Challenge
« Reply #4 on: Mar 1st, 2015, 2:09pm »
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At that speed, the interface becomes a big issue.
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browni3141
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Re: 2015 Arimaa Challenge
« Reply #5 on: Mar 1st, 2015, 4:51pm »
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on Mar 1st, 2015, 10:55am, rbarreira wrote:
Another topic that got a short discussion in today's chat was - what time control have the bots already surpassed humans at?
 
I think almost everyone would agree that humans would have bad winning chances if the challenge was played at 8 seconds per move (lightning).
 
How about blitz? It's uncertain, but I feel bots may be the best at blitz at the moment, after looking at bot_sharp2014blitz's record.
 
It would be interesting to find out the time gap between bots getting better at lightning and bots getting better at blitz (if that already happened).

 
I would definitely doubt my own chances at lightning, but like aaaa says, the interface is important. Moving to the library or anywhere with a low latency connection, for example, is probably worth 100-200 elo. I am therefore not confident in a probable failure, but still skeptical of my chances to score >50%.
At blitz I definitely think I am at least as strong as sharp2014Blitz. When you referenced my record in the chatroom, you included unrated games which were played unrated for very good reasons (most or all were part of simuls). Among rated games only I was 1-2 against sharp, not 1-12, (2-2 as of this posting) In a serious blitz match I could still gain by moving to a faster connection, but not nearly as much as with lightning.
 
I will happily supply data by playing any bots at blitz/lightning time controls. I will even play games with stakes, but in that case I would need to make sure I can move to a good connection and we would need to agree on odds.
 
To answer the OP: My very rough estimate of the number of games the bots will win in the Challenge is 2.
As for our chances of defending the Challenge until it expires? That is extremely hard to answer, as it depends on a lot of unknowns. Sharp seems to have improved a lot this year, but it's hard to tell how much lightvector can keep it up or whether new bots will come into the mix, and hard to tell how much humans will improve, etc.
At the current rate of improvement sharp would probably overcome humans, but I don't think this rate of improvement is sustainable. My official answer is "I have no idea whatsoever."
« Last Edit: Mar 1st, 2015, 4:55pm by browni3141 » IP Logged

Fritzlein
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Re: 2015 Arimaa Challenge
« Reply #6 on: Mar 2nd, 2015, 2:22pm »
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on Mar 1st, 2015, 4:51pm, browni3141 wrote:
I will happily supply data by playing any bots at blitz/lightning time controls.

The trouble with using server bots like bot_sharp2014Blitz as a gauge is that they run on a single core, whereas the Challenge is run on twelve cores, and also that server bots are static so they don't have the surprise factor working for them that new bots have in the actual Challenge.  (The multi-core and surprise factor issues are the reason that the games of the Screening are my preferred measure of bot strength at CC time controls, even though those ratings are (quite naturally) higher than the gameroom ratings of past CC bots.)
 
For blitz the most realistic measure would likely be a developer hosting his latest version on his own machine.  Unfortunately, any developer trying to win the Challenge in the current year probably wants to expose his bot as little as possible, particularly to one of the actual defenders, but maybe no developer expects to win this year.
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Fritzlein
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Re: 2015 Arimaa Challenge
« Reply #7 on: Mar 2nd, 2015, 2:24pm »
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on Mar 1st, 2015, 4:51pm, browni3141 wrote:
To answer the OP: My very rough estimate of the number of games the bots will win in the Challenge is 2.

For those not reading the entire chat archive, SilverMitt estimated the number of bot wins (assuming the Challenger is bot_sharp) at 3 or 3.5.
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browni3141
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Re: 2015 Arimaa Challenge
« Reply #8 on: Mar 2nd, 2015, 2:52pm »
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on Mar 2nd, 2015, 2:22pm, Fritzlein wrote:

The trouble with using server bots like bot_sharp2014Blitz as a gauge is that they run on a single core, whereas the Challenge is run on twelve cores, and also that server bots are static so they don't have the surprise factor working for them that new bots have in the actual Challenge.  (The multi-core and surprise factor issues are the reason that the games of the Screening are my preferred measure of bot strength at CC time controls, even though those ratings are (quite naturally) higher than the gameroom ratings of past CC bots.)

My post was intended as a challenge to latest and greatest bots from the developers. I'll be playing the server bots anyway.
« Last Edit: Mar 2nd, 2015, 2:52pm by browni3141 » IP Logged

deep_blue
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Re: 2015 Arimaa Challenge
« Reply #9 on: Mar 2nd, 2015, 6:29pm »
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I claim that the bot (probably sharp) has good chances (>50%) to win one match, but not more. Therefore i agree to 3-3.5 wins by the bot.
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Fritzlein
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Re: 2015 Arimaa Challenge
« Reply #10 on: Mar 2nd, 2015, 9:31pm »
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If I recall correctly from last year, I was predicting about 3.25 bot wins, and bot_ziltoid only managed 2 wins, but I haven't learned from experience.  Smiley
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Fritzlein
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Re: 2015 Arimaa Challenge
« Reply #11 on: Mar 4th, 2015, 3:57pm »
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In the chat room, browni3141 and I negotiated for him to sell me some insurance.  I am on the hook for $1000 if the Arimaa Challenge is won this year, and I am worried about having to pay out to lightvector, but browni3141 rates the odds of that happening as very low.  (Exactly how low, browni?  Less than 100:1 for sure, since you need a premium to justify taking on increased variance.)
 
In any event, I have sent 200 Arimaa points to browni3141, and he has promised to give me all of his prize money from this year's World Championship if the Challenge is won this year.  If he wins the World Championship, that is 23994 Arimaa points of insurance, i.e. almost a quarter of my liability.  Thanks, browni!
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chessandgo
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Re: 2015 Arimaa Challenge
« Reply #12 on: Mar 5th, 2015, 3:52am »
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Was it intentional that you didn't take into account in your calculations that other players than browni believe they can win? Smiley
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Fritzlein
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Re: 2015 Arimaa Challenge
« Reply #13 on: Mar 5th, 2015, 12:36pm »
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on Mar 5th, 2015, 3:52am, chessandgo wrote:
Was it intentional that you didn't take into account in your calculations that other players than browni believe they can win? Smiley

I didn't consciously take into account anyone's beliefs other than my own, but I would nevertheless be very interested to hear yours.  What do you think your odds of winning are?  (game or match or sweep; however you feel like expressing it)
 
If your confidence rivals browni's, then I would be interested in buying some 100:1 Challenge insurance from you too, indeed as much as you care to offer up to $760.  That is to say, I will gladly pay you $7.60 today if you promise to pay me $760 if the Arimaa Challenge is won this year.
« Last Edit: Mar 5th, 2015, 12:51pm by Fritzlein » IP Logged

Fritzlein
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Re: 2015 Arimaa Challenge
« Reply #14 on: Mar 5th, 2015, 12:48pm »
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Lifting from the chat room for posterity:
 
quasar
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I think Fritzlein made a positive expected value bet.

 
browni3141
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If sharp is as good as I think, it's about .1% to win [the 2015 Challenge]. Tongue

 
petermck
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I predict the Arimaa Challenge will be won by 2018.

 
quasar
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Arimaa 2020, Go 2024, if I had to guess.

 
deep_blue
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arimaa 2035; go 2030 Tongue
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