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chessandgo
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Re: 2015 Arimaa Challenge
« Reply #45 on: Apr 1st, 2015, 4:05am »
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on Apr 1st, 2015, 1:44am, Fritzlein wrote:

Secondly, chessandgo is clearly underrated on the game room scale

 
I can hear soemone coughing, I believe it's Sharp2014Fast.
 
on Apr 1st, 2015, 1:44am, Fritzlein wrote:

Before the Screening, I was going to stick to my prediction from the last few years that bots have a 30% chance of winning the Challenge before it expires in 2020.  Given how dramatically sharp has improved this year, and given how lightvector drops hints that there is plenty more for him to optimize before he runs out of ideas, I have to bump my prediction up to 70% that the Challenge is won.

 
Long term, I'm very pessimistic too (maybe even more so), especially with lightvector expecting no slack in sharp's future improvement.
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deep_blue
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Re: 2015 Arimaa Challenge
« Reply #46 on: Apr 1st, 2015, 5:23am »
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When exactly would you guys think the Challenge will be won?
Do you take bets?  Wink
Also what odds do you give me if I bet that the Challenge won't be won at all until 2020?
@Fritzlein: I think it's unlikely that Sharp can be beaten on Score. If it's possible then it's extremely difficult. But like I already mentioned in the other thread, when Sharp advances after some shuffling its advances can be exploited by the human to get a very nice position (like I did).
« Last Edit: Apr 1st, 2015, 6:56am by deep_blue » IP Logged
Fritzlein
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Re: 2015 Arimaa Challenge
« Reply #47 on: Apr 1st, 2015, 9:03am »
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on Apr 1st, 2015, 5:23am, deep_blue wrote:
I think it's unlikely that Sharp can be beaten on Score. If it's possible then it's extremely difficult.

There is a difference between how difficult it is to work out a winning formula and how difficult it is to execute that formula.  I'm going to claim more experience than you at observing how bot-bashing unfolds.  We used to have a very active core of players devoted to pushing the limits of humiliating silicon.  It was quite amazing how many things we thought were extremely difficult, if not impossible, which after much experimentation became not only possible, but routine.  Yet if all the bot-bashers had tried twice and given up, we would never have discovered any of the extreme exploits.
 
Don't get me wrong; I don't think sharp is naturally passive in anything like the sense that ziltoid is.  I merely think that if you get it set up just exactly right, sharp will trade three for three forever without finding a useful fourth step.  Based on an off-hand comment from lightvector, I'm quite sure your chat room speculation about sharp turning up aggression around move 30 is wrong.  Sharp has no explicit defense against losing on score, so I think it is merely a matter of finding the perfect set of triggers for passivity.
 
As impressive as sharp's general strength is, it still isn't a learning bot (as far as we know), so whenever we find a weaknesses to exploit, we can fine tune our exploitation of it to greatly exaggerate that weakness.  I have too much observation of bots being triggered into idiotic behavior to believe that sharp is immune based only on general playing strength.
 
I'm not going to bet on the date the Challenge falls, but I would bet 100 Arimaa points (at even odds) that someone will figure out a recipe to beat sharpCC2015 on score within six months of it becoming available for open play.  We would have to somehow clarify what "recipe" means, since winning on score just once is not what I'm talking about.  How about this: if anyone beats sharpCC2015 on score three games in a row, no matter how long it takes to build up to that victory streak, it proves you are wrong about it being "extremely difficult" to beat sharp on score.
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deep_blue
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Re: 2015 Arimaa Challenge
« Reply #48 on: Apr 1st, 2015, 10:31am »
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on Apr 1st, 2015, 9:03am, Fritzlein wrote:

I'm not going to bet on the date the Challenge falls, but I would bet 100 Arimaa points (at even odds) that someone will figure out a recipe to beat sharpCC2015 on score within six months of it becoming available for open play.  We would have to somehow clarify what "recipe" means, since winning on score just once is not what I'm talking about.  How about this: if anyone beats sharpCC2015 on score three games in a row, no matter how long it takes to build up to that victory streak, it proves you are wrong about it being "extremely difficult" to beat sharp on score.

Hm, for one Score win I wouldn't take that bet. But for three in a row? I am not sure.
But for the sake of a bet, okay I take it. Just one thing, could we bet 1000 Arimaa points? (because then if I win I could enter next year's WC or Postal Mixer Wink ; alternatively: I bet one entry fee of next years WC or Postal Mixer)
« Last Edit: Apr 1st, 2015, 10:32am by deep_blue » IP Logged
Fritzlein
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Re: 2015 Arimaa Challenge
« Reply #49 on: Apr 1st, 2015, 12:54pm »
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on Apr 1st, 2015, 10:31am, deep_blue wrote:

Hm, for one Score win I wouldn't take that bet. But for three in a row? I am not sure.
But for the sake of a bet, okay I take it. Just one thing, could we bet 1000 Arimaa points? (because then if I win I could enter next year's WC or Postal Mixer Wink ; alternatively: I bet one entry fee of next years WC or Postal Mixer)

No thanks on the larger bet.  $1 is a good symbolic amount when I am not trying to earn a profit or insure against loss so much as I am trying to make a point.  I don't actually like to gamble: I just like to convert theoretical discussions into something more tangible.
 
It occurs to me that I will surely have to win the three straight myself even if someone else figures it out, because no sane person would waste all that time applying a reliable formula.  Indeed, I may have to work out the formula myself, because you and browni3141 seem to be the only ones interested in winning on score.  You aren't likely to win my dollar for me, and browni3141 is mostly trying to provide fuel for changing a rule he doesn't like.  Therefore I could easily lose this dollar due to collective apathy.  There are much more interesting theoretical questions and more productive challenges in the realm of bot-bashing than trying to induce passivity in a bot.
 
Maybe if the roles were reversed, i.e. if you were the one who would have to do work to win the bet, then increasing the stakes would seem reasonable.  Then I might not mind losing $10; I could see it as a wage I have paid out to advance the frontiers of human knowledge.  Indeed there have been cash prizes for past bot-bashing feats.
 
Would you mind if I call off our bet entirely, and instead offer a $10 bounty for three consecutive score wins against sharp2015CC?
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deep_blue
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Re: 2015 Arimaa Challenge
« Reply #50 on: Apr 1st, 2015, 1:36pm »
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on Apr 1st, 2015, 12:54pm, Fritzlein wrote:

...because no sane person would waste all that time applying a reliable formula...
Would you mind if I call off our bet entirely, and instead offer a $10 bounty for three consecutive score wins against sharp2015CC?

I guess that would mean an insane person like me could win those $10 without risking to lose anything (since it's no bet anymore)? Well, I think it's very unlikely to manage it but if I have nothing to lose anyway, why not?
I take your offer. How much time do I get? Forever? Till next Screening?
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Re: 2015 Arimaa Challenge
« Reply #51 on: Apr 2nd, 2015, 12:05am »
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on Apr 1st, 2015, 1:36pm, deep_blue wrote:
I take your offer. How much time do I get? Forever? Till next Screening?

I was thinking six months from sharp2015CC becoming permanently available as a server bot (i.e. the clock doesn't start ticking if Omar merely leaves sharp up for open play through April on the Challenge servers and then doesn't make it available as a regular server bot).
 
And yes, you can win the $10 (actually 1000 Arimaa points) with no risk of losing anything (except your time Tongue).
 
And I want to make the offer open to anyone as long as nobody has figured it out.  I somehow want to avoid someone winning two in a row on score and not having time to complete the set, and someone else jumping in to execute their formula three times before they get back.  Not sure how to formulate this, but the points got to whoever was first to completely figure it out.
« Last Edit: Apr 2nd, 2015, 12:14am by Fritzlein » IP Logged

Fritzlein
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Re: 2015 Arimaa Challenge
« Reply #52 on: Apr 10th, 2015, 11:20pm »
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on Apr 1st, 2015, 12:28am, Fritzlein wrote:
I now put the odds of the Challenge being won closer to 1:20 now that the Screening is over.

Apparently I didn't give enough weight to sharp's excellent performance in the Screening.  With sharp beating chessandgo and harvestsnow in the first two games, I now have to give it a 20% chance of winning the Challenge this year.  I still have faith in browni3141.  Not as much faith as he has in himself, mind you (or equivalently more respect for sharp), but I expect he is still better than sharp, and the chance that either chessandgo or harvestsnow come back to win two straight is non-negligible.  This year's Challenge is way more exciting than it was supposed to be.  No matter what happens next, I tip my hat to lightvector for what he has already achieved.
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Fritzlein
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Re: 2015 Arimaa Challenge
« Reply #53 on: Apr 11th, 2015, 9:28pm »
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Wow, with sharp sweeping the first round, humanity is in a tough spot.  Yes, we have three people who could each still defend with no help from the other two, keeping the Challenge intact with a 2-7 score.  On the other hand, if we now have to conclude that sharp is as good as browni3141, there is less than 1/3 chance of any of these three human comebacks occurring, i.e. sharp is at least 2/3 chance of take at least one more game from each defender, thus winning the Challenge this year.  I have apparently been rather wrong about humanity's chance, and clever only insofar as I bought insurance for $2 which is now worth over $160. Lips Sealed
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mattj256
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Re: 2015 Arimaa Challenge
« Reply #54 on: Apr 12th, 2015, 3:43am »
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on Apr 11th, 2015, 9:28pm, Fritzlein wrote:
sharp is at least 2/3 chance of take at least one more game from each defender, thus winning the Challenge this year.

Let's pretend Sharp is 50% to win every game.  The odds of Sharp winning the series against an individual defender would be 3/4 or 75%.  The odds of Sharp winning all three series would be (3/4)^3, which is 42%.  
 
These statistics are "for entertainment purposes only" and don't make any attempt to address psychological factors.  In previous tournaments humanity had already locked up the defense by the 4th or 5th game.  In this tournament humanity can't clinch the defense earlier than the 7th game.
 
I remember two years ago when Browni3141 won his challenge game with a horse handicap.  What has changed?  Are the bots so much faster and/or better than they were last year?
 
Matthew
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rbarreira
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Re: 2015 Arimaa Challenge
« Reply #55 on: Apr 12th, 2015, 10:38am »
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on Apr 12th, 2015, 3:43am, mattj256 wrote:

 
I remember two years ago when Browni3141 won his challenge game with a horse handicap.  What has changed?  Are the bots so much faster and/or better than they were last year?

 
It's too early to give a full summary of what has changed, since we don't have enough data on sharp2015 yet. But lightvector has stated that sharp2015 vs sharp2014 got a 400 elo boost in self-play, which is quite significant. It also appears from the WCC that this boost translated well to dominance over other bots, and the screening and first round of the challenge show it may have translated to a big boost vs humans as well, again compared to the 2014 version of sharp.
 
In terms of hardware, sharp also got a nice boost - I recall that last year a mistake in sharp's setup meant it was only using half the cores of the 2014 hardware. On top of fixing this, the 2015 version is also running on a CPU that is about 43% 25% faster (same CPU architecture with 25% higher clock rate). So this translates to a ~2.5x speedup on top of the software improvements.
 
edit - corrected the clock rate (the page on 2015 hardware seems wrong, the X5650 is clocked at 2.66 GHz and not 3.06 GHz)
« Last Edit: Apr 12th, 2015, 10:51am by rbarreira » IP Logged
Fritzlein
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Re: 2015 Arimaa Challenge
« Reply #56 on: Apr 18th, 2015, 5:09pm »
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Now that sharp has swept the first six games of the Challenge, insuring victory, let me be the first to post: Congratulations, lightvector!  What a phenomenal leap in strength for sharp from 2014 to 2015.  I used to think I would be heartbroken to pay out the $1000 I pledged to the prize fund, but now that it comes time, I realize what an honor it is for me to get to give the prize to you.  The Arimaa Challenge couldn't have been won by a smarter, nicer, more creative guy.  I have a strong hunch that winning the Arimaa Challenge isn't the last thing you are going to be famous for in your life.  Rock on!
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Re: 2015 Arimaa Challenge
« Reply #57 on: Apr 19th, 2015, 8:57am »
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Well done, lightvector!
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lightvector
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Re: 2015 Arimaa Challenge
« Reply #58 on: Apr 19th, 2015, 6:54pm »
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Thanks Fritzlein and jdb!
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RonWeasley
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Re: 2015 Arimaa Challenge
« Reply #59 on: Apr 26th, 2015, 7:52pm »
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I've been away from the game for a while.  I really didn't think the challenge would fall this year, but I saw that good players were not winning easily against the top bots.  I'm really surprised to see that the Challenge has been won.  Congratulations, lightvector!  I'll be looking at the games and looking for your name in the Daily Prophet.
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