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   Author  Topic: Move 14  (Read 2767 times)
Janzert
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Move 14
« on: Sep 26th, 2007, 1:53pm »
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Chessandgo's move: 14w Eb5e Ec5e Ed5e md6s
 
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Fritzlein
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Re: Move 14
« Reply #1 on: Sep 26th, 2007, 9:48pm »
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My first thought is to protect the camel with ec4e and prevent an EH attack with hh6w.  That leaves us two additional steps to divide between various objectives: pulling the rabbit, pulling the c3 horse, and retreating our camel.  Some variants:
 
14b hh6w Rh5n ec4e Hc3n
14b hh6w ec4e Hc3n md5w
14b hh6w Rh5n ec4e md5n
 
My initial inclination (with no lines of analysis) is to the middle option.  Gold's exposed rabbit on h5 is small potatoes we can deal with any time, and with our horse on g6 any attack by chessandgo promises to be slow, so we can make threats in the east so strong his elephant has to repent and not change wings after all.  But specific refutation in analysis could easily change my mind.
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UruramTururam
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Re: Move 14
« Reply #2 on: Sep 27th, 2007, 6:30am »
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Chessandgo had a longer thought on his latest move so it can be easily assumed he made a deep analysis...  
His elephant is now centered and mobile.  Undecided
 
My idea for the next move:  
 
14b hh6w ec4e Hc3n md5n
 
Out of Fritzlein proposals I like the second one (with md5w) most.
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99of9
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Re: Move 14
« Reply #3 on: Sep 27th, 2007, 7:27am »
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We don't have to protect against the EH attack if we are threatening his horse.  If he went ahead with the EH, we would get a horse for a dog.
 
so i propose we get a little aggressive with our last step
 
ec4e Hc3n md5n ha6n
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arimaa_master
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Re: Move 14
« Reply #4 on: Sep 27th, 2007, 9:10am »
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on Sep 26th, 2007, 9:48pm, Fritzlein wrote:
My first thought is to protect the camel with ec4e and prevent an EH attack with hh6w.  That leaves us two additional steps to divide between various objectives: pulling the rabbit, pulling the c3 horse, and retreating our camel.  Some variants:
 
14b hh6w Rh5n ec4e Hc3n
14b hh6w ec4e Hc3n md5w
14b hh6w Rh5n ec4e md5n
 
My initial inclination (with no lines of analysis) is to the middle option.  Gold's exposed rabbit on h5 is small potatoes we can deal with any time, and with our horse on g6 any attack by chessandgo promises to be slow, so we can make threats in the east so strong his elephant has to repent and not change wings after all.  But specific refutation in analysis could easily change my mind.

 
 
on Sep 27th, 2007, 6:30am, UruramTururam wrote:
Chessandgo had a longer thought on his latest move so it can be easily assumed he made a deep analysis...  
His elephant is now centered and mobile.  Undecided
 
My idea for the next move:  
 
14b hh6w ec4e Hc3n md5n
 
Out of Fritzlein proposals I like the second one (with md5w) most.

 
I think that we must do three things at the same time:
 
1) preventing E+H attack - thus hh6w should be the only viable options (I don´t think that we will be in good position after 99of9 proposed  
ec4e Hc3n md5n ha6n  but more anylysis is probably needed)
 
2) threaten something - thus ec4e Hc3n is good
 
3) and protect our camel - thus md5n should be the right choice coz with md5w our camel could be pushed to one wing and thus out of play.)
 
 
So now is clear that my vote goes to UT's suggested move:  
 
 14b hh6w ec4e Hc3n md5n  
 
 
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99of9
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Re: Move 14
« Reply #5 on: Sep 27th, 2007, 4:43pm »
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on Sep 27th, 2007, 9:10am, arimaa_master wrote:
(I don´t think that we will be in good position after 99of9 proposed  
ec4e Hc3n md5n ha6n  but more anylysis is probably needed)

Why? What do you think he can do?  Is there a refutation you can suggest?
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RonWeasley
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Re: Move 14
« Reply #6 on: Sep 28th, 2007, 7:26am »
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99, do you mean ha6s?  I agree that ec4e Hc3n mitigates the threat of an E-H against f6 since gold must use at least two steps to defend the H.  So I don't think we have to do hh6w right away to defend against E-H.
 
One of C&G's common strategic goals is to get his E forward and push the opposing camel to one side.  Then he attacks E-H on the non-camel side.  In this position, C&G wants to E-H against f6 eventually.  I like defending this by having a mobile camel that can get to either side (beginning with md5n), but there are other ways to defend.  TheMob should think about how we address this.
 
On the last move, we got an advantage in the rabbit pulling race.  Keep in mind that advantage.  If gold does E-H against f6, does that negate the advantage?  If we do hh6w, does that negate the advantage?  I don't think gold can make progress against our a4 rabbit if we do ec4e Hc3n.
 
Another small advantage is gold's dog on b3.  This might be a reason for ha6s, but the dog can easily escape while fixing the horse we pull.  If we're going to move the a6 horse, how about to b6?
 
I think we need three of our steps to be ec4e Hc3n md5{n or w}.  That leave one step.  I expect a reply of Db3e Hc4w Hb4s Ee5n.  We can tighten up the h5 rabbit and h6 horse after that while blocking the E-H on f6.  So for the last step, I like ha6w.
 
My candidate:
14b ec4e Hc3n md5n ha6w.
 
Let's shoot for a vote beginning Wednesday morning EDT.
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arimaa_master
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Re: Move 14
« Reply #7 on: Sep 28th, 2007, 8:03am »
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on Sep 27th, 2007, 4:43pm, 99of9 wrote:

Why? What do you think he can do?  Is there a refutation you can suggest?

 
Ok, I reconsidered it - it looks like we can get horse for dog + rabbit in few moves horizont - so your move and Ron Weasley's one could be well playable.
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99of9
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Re: Move 14
« Reply #8 on: Sep 28th, 2007, 9:11am »
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on Sep 28th, 2007, 7:26am, RonWeasley wrote:
99, do you mean ha6s?

Yes, sorry.  I mean the aggressive move toward his rabbit line.
 
Quote:
So for the last step, I like ha6w.

Ron, do you mean ha6e?  Wink I don't think you can move west from the a column.
 
I did consider your move, and will write later about why I chose mine.
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Re: Move 14
« Reply #9 on: Sep 30th, 2007, 6:43pm »
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It's a bit late in the cycle to try to get an analysis tree going, but I have a patch of time and motivation, so I'll give it a shot.
 
First let me make general strategy comments.  Before chessandgo's move we thought we were winning due to the rabbit race.  If both sides only tried to capture the rabbit they had pulled, we would capture first.  Our advantage is partly because chessandgo's b3-dog and c3-horse are misplaced, and partly because both elephants are in the west where our exposed rabbit is, not in the east where his exposed rabbit is.
 
If you left all the other pieces where they were and transported the two elephants to the east, most of our advantage would disappear.  In fact, we would then be losing the rabbit-pulling race.  We would just be angling to frame his rabbit while he captures ours.  When this strategic dynamic of the position is clear, chessandgo's move suddenly looks brilliant.  His attack on our camel is incidental, since we can easily defend it, but in the process of attack/defense his elephant moved three steps east and our elephant will move one step east, closer to the position chessandgo desires.
 
My intuitive take on the situation is that we simply cannot follow chessandgo's elephant all the way east.  If he goes east we have to stay west and win the elephants-apart race to do damage.  We must hurt him more and faster in the west than he can hurt us in the east.  This will place him on the horns of a dilemma: either he gives up and moves his elephant back west (accepting a losing elephants-together rabbit capture race), or he tries some attack in the east anyway (accepting a losing elephants-apart capture-a-piece race).
 
If I am right about the strategic take on the position, this essentially rules out our two suggestions with hh6w Rh5n.  Pulling the rabbit is just not important right now.  Also if I am right, it pays to consider moves with no hh6w, as 99of9 and Ron have suggested.   Thirdly, we have to look extra carefully at md5w rather than md5n, because the camel can play an important role in making our western attack so strong that chessandgo can't afford to go east.  Forcing chessandgo's elephant to come back east may compensate the more exposed position of our camel in the east.
 
on Sep 27th, 2007, 9:10am, arimaa_master wrote:
3) and protect our camel - thus md5n should be the right choice coz with md5w our camel could be pushed to one wing and thus out of play.)

The general reason for keeping the a camel in the middle is for defense, not offense.  For offense our camel should be on one wing to be in play, preferably the wing where the opposing elephant is not.  What we give up by committing our camel to the west is merely that chessandgo can more easily advance a horse in the east.
 
But why do we fear an eastern horse advance? The gold rabbit on a5 means that chessandgo can't profitably advance his lone horse to pull a rabbit.  The only eastern horse advance that we need to worry about is as part of an E-H attack.  Against an E-H attack I expect that md5n gives us hardly any more eastern defense than md5w, because if chessandgo finds time to answer md5n with Ee5n the next move, our camel is anyway cut off from defending an E-H attack.  So although I am generally a strong advocate of a centralized camel, I just don't think it is a big deal in the current situation.
 
key:
= equality
+= slight gold advantage
=+ slight silver advantage
+- big gold advantage
-+ big silver advantage
 
14b ec4e Hc3n md5w hh6w
.    15w Db3e Hc4w Hb4s Ee5w
.    .    15b ed4w mc5w ec4n Dc3n
.    .    .    16w Ed5s Dc4s Ed4w Hb3w
.    .    .    .    16b hg6e hh6w Ra5n Ha6s
.    .    .    .    .    17w Ha3e ra4s Cc2w Dc3s
.    .    .    .    .    .    17b ec5e ed5s ed4s mb5n (=+)
.    15w Ee5w mc5w Ed5w Hc4s
.    .    15b ha6s mb5n ed4w hg6e (=+)
14b ec4e Hc3n md5n ha6e
.    15w Ee5n Hg3n Hg4n Hg5n
.    .    15b Hc4n ed4w Hc5n Hc6x ec4n
.    .    .    16w Ee6e Ef6w df7n df6x Md2n
.    .    .    .    16b ec5e md6n ed5e ee5e
.    .    .    .    .    17w Db3w Md3w Hg6s rg7s (=)
.    15w Db3e Hc4w Hb4s Ee5n
.    .    15b ed4w hh6w hb6e md6n (=)
.    .    15b ed4n md6n hh6w Ha5n
.    .    .    16w Hb3w ra4e Ha3n Dc3w (=)
14b ec4e Hc3n md5n ha6s
.    15w Db3e Hc4w Hb4s Ee5n
.    .    15b ed4n md6n hh6w Ha5n
.    .    .    16w Hb3w ra4e Ha3n Dc3w (=)
.    .    15b ed4w ec4e Dc3n hh6w
.    .    .    16w Ee6s md6e Ee5w me6s (+=)
.    15w Ee5n Hg3n Hg4n Hg5n
.    .    15b Hc4n ed4w Hc5n Hc6x ec4n
.    .    .    16w Ee6e Ef6w df7n df6x Md2n
.    .    .    .    16b ec5e md6n ed5e ee5e
.    .    .    .    .    17w Ee6w Ed6e md7s Md3w (=)
14b ec4e Hc3n md5n hh6w  
.    15w Db3e Hc4w Hb4s Ee5n (=)
.    .    15b dd8s md6w mc6w ed4w
14b ec4e Hc3n hh6w Rh5n
.    15w Ee5e md5e me5s Ef5w
.    .    15b me4e mf4e mg4n Hg3n
.    .    .    16w Db3e Hc4w Hb4s Ee5e (+=)
14b ec4e md5n hh6w Rh5n
.    15w Ee5n Db3s Hc3w Hb3w (+=)
.    .    15b ha6e hb6s hb5s hb4s
.    .    .    16w Md2n De2n Md3w De3w (+=)

 
Well, maybe my analysis is biased, because I ended up finding just what I expected to find, namely that my favorite move of the six suggested is the one move with md5w in it.  This analysis is there to be refuted, but the current tree suggests to me that neglecting hhw6 on 14b will allow chessandgo to sacrifice H for D with an eventual capture of R because we can't rescue our R while chessandgo has EH threatening f6.  I rate H for DR about equal with the camels and the other pair of horses still on.  Also Ron's suggestion for 15w allows chessandgo a different path to equality, it seems.
 
One move we definitely have to look at is 14b ec4e Hc3n md5w ha6s.  It definitely has potential to race if chessandgo tries for EH against f6, by which I mean we don't defend f6 at all and attack c3 instead.  Sadly, someone else will have to analyze that, because I have used up my Arimaa allocation for the weekend.
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Re: Move 14
« Reply #10 on: Oct 1st, 2007, 4:52pm »
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Sorry I haven't replied sooner... all my homework and college and scholarship applications are really bogging me down. I admit that I haven't read through the thread very carefully and my input probably doesn't mean too much this time, but I agree with Fritz that md5w is better than md5n. Actually I think our first three steps should be 14b ec4e Hc3n md5w but I'm not sure what the best use of the fourth step is.
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Re: Move 14
« Reply #11 on: Oct 2nd, 2007, 1:29pm »
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on Sep 30th, 2007, 6:43pm, Fritzlein wrote:
14b ec4e Hc3n md5w hh6w
.    15w Db3e Hc4w Hb4s Ee5w
.    .    15b ed4w mc5w ec4n Dc3n
.    .    .    16w Ed5s Dc4s Ed4w Hb3w
.    .    .    .    16b hg6e hh6w Ra5n Ha6s
.    .    .    .    .    17w Ha3e ra4s Cc2w Dc3s
.    .    .    .    .    .    17b ec5e ed5s ed4s mb5n (=+)
 .    15w Ee5w mc5w Ed5w Hc4s
.    .    15b ha6s mb5n ed4w hg6e  

 
But what ar further plans if C&G answers 15b Ee5w mc5w Ed5w (...) - maybe the fourth step of Hc4s? Isn't the camel too exposed?
 
« Last Edit: Oct 2nd, 2007, 1:32pm by UruramTururam » IP Logged

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Re: Move 14
« Reply #12 on: Oct 2nd, 2007, 2:37pm »
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on Oct 2nd, 2007, 1:29pm, UruramTururam wrote:

 
But what ar further plans if C&G answers 15b Ee5w mc5w Ed5w (...) - maybe the fourth step of Hc4s? Isn't the camel too exposed?
 

 
Not at all. We can easily retreat the camel if chessandgo played this 15w with only 2 steps and his elephant would end up farther west which I am pretty sure is where we want it. Just look at the line Fritz suggested in his analysis tree. After the 15b Fritz suggests that we play we are clearly ahead positionally.
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Re: Move 14
« Reply #13 on: Oct 2nd, 2007, 5:00pm »
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That's the problem, I'm not so sure that this position is really ahead for us... Some more position analysis here is welcome if we are to decide whether to move our camel back or right.
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Re: Move 14
« Reply #14 on: Oct 2nd, 2007, 6:18pm »
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on Oct 2nd, 2007, 5:00pm, UruramTururam wrote:
That's the problem, I'm not so sure that this position is really ahead for us... Some more position analysis here is welcome if we are to decide whether to move our camel back or right.

 
well what move(s) are you concerned about for 16w?
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